BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor

The one new poll for the week maintains the trend of incremental improvement for the Coalition.

First up, please note the threads below this one dealing with state politics in South Australia and New South Wales.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate continues to inch in the Coalition’s direction with the addition of the Essential Research poll, the only one published this week. Whereas Labor finished 2018 with a lead of 54.4-45.6, the latest result has it at 53.1-46.9, which is a 0.4% shift compared with a week ago. However, this only makes one seat’s difference on the seat projection, with a projected gain for the Coalition in New South Wales. No new results for the leadership ratings this week.

Full results are available through the link below. There is a bit of bug here that often stops the state breakdowns from loading when you click on the tabs – I will get around to fixing this one day, but for the time being, it should work if you do a hard refresh.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,337 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor”

  1. Meher baba , I noticed earlier you mentioned a defined benefit income of $100k pa is deemed by the ATO to have $1.6m (ie 16 times the defined pension amount) of assets behind it.

    This is equivalent to the cap on an allocated pension account that gives a tax free income to those eligible.

    What happens in the case when a person has an allocated pension of $120k pa? Do they get taxed on the extra $20k, and if so at what rate?

  2. zoomster @ #1048 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 4:07 pm

    Add to the list – ‘chemical free’ foods and ‘natural’ insecticides.

    Some ‘natural’ gardening books on my book shelf have recipes for extracting nicotine for use as a herbicide. Nicotine is one of the nastiest poisons there is, but hey! it’s natural, so that’s OK, sprinkle it on the vegetables.

    I suppose you’ll die a ‘natural’ death.

    You could always jump off a bridge in the nude!

    That might qualify as an “Au Natural” death!

  3. meher baba

    There is s cynical (?clever) sub group of anti vaxxers who vaccinate their children against only tetanus.

    The reason is that tetanus is acquired environmentally and other people being vaccinated doesn’t protect you. Whereas they know their children are generally protected against the other things by the ‘herd immunity’ of others.

    Of course once vaccination rates get down to around 90% like the far north NSW Coast the herd immunity effect starts to diminish.

    I worry about young Australians travelling overseas, especially to third world countries, who are not fully vaccinated and may not even be aware that they are not.

  4. The govt is essentially ignoring the banking RC recommendations by insisting there simply aren’t enough sitting days in which to pass meaningful legislation. I suppose it could do the same thing with the Phelps bill by stalling on implementation.

  5. RR, ‘group of anti vaxxers who vaccinate their children against only tetanus.’

    And there is another group who do vaccinate their children using homeopathic vaccines.

  6. GG

    I don’t particularly want to die any kind of death.

    The funeral insurance adds make it clear it’s optional (‘if you should die’) so I’m going with that.

  7. Surely the peak of anti-vaxxer stupidity was that Facebook post by a mum of an unvaccinated 3yo asking for advice in protecting her child from a recent measles outbreak.

  8. C@t – “More discussion and debate Rex Douglas! ,,,”

    RD – “This isn’t a Labor blog”

    LOLRex that’s very droll, but really, how do you hope to win over anyone – even wavering green voters, if you abandon the policy field and resort to a losing Howard-authored tactical manual of gotcha moments and wedging, and repetitive totally overcooked Bill Shorten slurs

    Overall the whole Green-Lab activists war is a bit disheartening at times,

  9. Harry “Snapper” Organs:

    I guess FauxMo could recommend to the GG that he not give the bill Royal Assent, which could give rise to a constitutional crisis, probably ending up in the High Court. That said, I don’t think it’ll get to that as McGowan will most likely welsh on her earlier undertaking.

  10. Mavis Smith @ #1045 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 4:07 pm

    lizzie:

    [‘ScoMo is showing just-in-time compassion (sic) by throwing a little money at it.’]

    It’s said that there are no votes in aged-care, evidenced by the relatively paltry amount spent in this area. I’m very skeptical of FauxMo’s decision to hold a RC, and doubtful that much will come of it, apart from numerous horror stories.

    They took 85% of my mother’s pension, with the result that she had left around $60 to spend on necessities. She was also required to pay a bond, which was refunded when she died, the interest going to the home.

    Very often, as in my wife’s case, most of the remainder goes for medication. Ah yes ❗ Those were the days my friend ——🦲 that’s bald headed me.

  11. Steve Davis @3:55pm
    “More fearmongering:
    REVEALED: How Chinese investors will snap up hundreds of thousands of ‘bargain’ Australian homes under Bill Shorten’s plan to cut negative gearing”

    That investment option was partially closed in 2015, so it really is just fearmongering.
    New rules mean foreigners may only buy new properties.
    https://www.finder.com.au/investing-in-property-as-a-non-resident

    Of course, the other answer is to restrict property ownership to Australian Residents and Citizens.
    Thus killing off another rort introduced to enhance the wealth of the property-owning classes at the expense of those who do not own property (like our kids).

    That would really accelerate the prices tumbling.

  12. Confessions, I am not to familiar with electricity market in the west, but if there is no deregulation/privatisation you may be stuck with what you have. Sorry about that.

  13. If an election is not called soon should we actually expect this govt to start governing?.

    The polling should be intriguing over the next month

  14. KayJay:

    [‘Very often, as in my wife’s case, most of the remainder goes for medication.’]

    Yep. I quite often topped up mother’s trust account with the home to cover the cost of her meds. Another thing, my mother was a war widow, who received around $200 a fortnight more than an age pensioner, but they didn’t factor this in – everyone, to my knowledge, pays the same percentage.

  15. It’s a strange Country the conservatives are trying to make.

    Single Muslim women are unable to travel to it and menial workers are to be denied the right to freely travel around it.

  16. The interesting (depressing, maybe?) thing about Jen’s comment, is that if you asked everyone who they thought should heed it, then reflect on and change their own behaviour, you’d likely find disagreement on who that should be :-P.

  17. Mavis Smith back at 4.21.
    Thanks for that. It was something like that I was wondering about, though you may well be right about McGowan reneging as well.
    It’s sure to be a helluva week in parliament if Pyne’s behaviour on Insiders this am was anything to go by.

  18. I have been doing research on funeral insurance – which is essentially low value whole of life insurance with a tiny defined benefit. We have calculated that for a $5k payout, most people who stay with funeral insurance, pay into it up to 8 times the value of the payout.

    Better to put $40 – $100 per month in a separate bank account – you get the interest and you will save the required funds in a relatively short period of time, and then can just let it sit and accrue interest.

    THis ‘moral panic’ idea that you are leaving hardship for your family is usually baseless in our country and purely emotive.

    Where these insurance companies make the most of this kind of insurance is from the big percentage of people who drop out after one or several years (realising it is not good value). THis is just cream for them.

  19. Van Badham
    ‏@vanbadham
    19m19 minutes ago

    George Christensen voted with the Liberals, Nationals and the Greens to cut the old age pension to 200,000 retired Australians.

    Curious that he’s willing to defend *corporate shareholders* with a passion he did not extend for those folk with less assets.

  20. Peter Stanton says:
    Sunday, February 10, 2019 at 3:21 pm
    I am sure that the deterrent value of off shore detention faded some years ago. The “boat people” problem if it existed at all has been resolved by the turn back policy. The government continues to detain people off shore because the political stance they have taken makes it impossible for them to bring these people to Australia without them looking to have conceded that they were wrong. They may also not wish to lose the wedge they have used so effectively against Labor.

    Well said Peter – For some reason the TAMPA mentality and election strategy has had a few cut and paste impacts on elections since Howard said “we will decide who comes into this country and the circumstances in which they will come” – I’m not silly enough to argue the Coalition won any election on the ‘children overboard’ or ‘sovereign borders’ meme alone but it certainly is the gift that keeps on giving for the Coalition: No matter what Shorten does come Tuesday on medical evacuations, the TAMPA flag will be waved in our faces again and again until the election. Ughh.

  21. Are we expecting a Newspoll tonight? It’s been tow weeks, but I remember someone saying that they usually did it in the middle weekend of sitting fortnights – and seeing as this will be the only ten days of Parliament before the election maybe that ‘rule’ takes precedence.

    Just finished listening to an amazing W-League semi-final where the minor premiers Melbourne Victory took a 1-0 lead against 4th placed Perth Glory in the second minute but ended up losing 2-4 after extra time, with the extraordinary Sam Kerr getting a hat-trick.

  22. I have never seen the point of funeral insurance. Once you’re dead, you’re dead. You certainly won’t be worrying about your funeral or whether your family can afford to give you one.

  23. Display name – I am under no illusion that I am just as guilty as other.

    It is very easy to be baited as well – some posters have, to my eyes, been deliberately needling others into lashing out and then squealing that they’ve been bullied.

    We all, whatever our political persuasion, have a lot to offer in terms of proper and intelligent discussion … THAT is what I enjoy most (and BK’s morning roundup – of course!)

  24. Jenauthor ‘Better to put $40 to $100 per month in a separate bank account – you get the interest and you will save the required funds in a relatively short period of time, and then can just let it sit and accrue interest.

    The problem with that is the funeral costs may go up faster than the interest you earn.

    Some funeral serves allow you to pay now for a funeral (say $12,000). This is put into a trust and when you die you are taken care of.

    This is very popular with people on the age pension as the $12,000 is not taken into account in the assets test and may allow you to get a tiny bit more pension.

  25. Tom:

    And Hodgkinson has some strong support.

    Former Member for Gilmore Joanna Gash has thrown her support behind Ms Hodgkinson, citing “disappointment and disgust” with the Liberal Party’s decision to parachute a candidate into the seat.

    “It wasn’t a very easy decision but when I saw what had happened, it wasn’t hard,” Ms Gash said.

    “The other, disenchanted Liberals will have to answer for themselves, I’m only concentrating on holding this seat for the Coalition and by doing that, I’ll be supporting Katrina Hodgkinson.

  26. Also put me down for a 52-48 Newspoll.

    Not because of the Labor tax stuff, because I don’t think it’s as much of a vote-mover as many would like to believe, but because there hasn’t been an outright fuck up.

    Now, the Government has a potentially hellish fortnight coming up, we’ll see where we stand after that.

  27. poroti @ #1037 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 3:50 pm

    Davidwh

    Both sides of politics use protecting people from drowning as an excuse to treat them like criminals and subject them to a fate that is arguably worse than drowning.

    It was very instructive for me to see who took up the “saving lives” so early and so vociferously. Talk back radio land and some Coalition MPs who up until their discovery of ‘saving lives’ had been full on demonising the AS.

    I honestly think it is very important to save lives. The only sad thing about it is the people that used a valid reason for stopping deaths at sea, as you say, as a fig leaf to cover their essential heartlessness. Please don’t place me into that box.

  28. PeeBee that is the other thing that has been researched. Funerals need not be anywhere near as expensive as they currently are.

    Bereaved people are sitting ducks for statements like: ‘wouldn’t you like to give Mum/Dad/Whomever, a proper send off?’ Because they are at their most vulnerable, people often say yes to things without thinking about it and people who do question costs are portrayed as heartless.

    It is a conundrum for many.

  29. jenauthor @ #1089 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 4:56 pm

    PeeBee that is the other thing that has been researched. Funerals need not be anywhere near as expensive as they currently are.

    Bereaved people are sitting ducks for statements like: ‘wouldn’t you like to give Mum/Dad/Whomever, a proper send off?’ Because they are at their most vulnerable, people often say yes to things without thinking about it and people who do question costs are portrayed as heartless.

    It is a conundrum for many.

    The next policy I’m going to try and get through the ALP is Human Composting. Everyone I have spoken to about it thus far has been in favour of it as an alternative to the palaver of funerals.

  30. Jen

    One thing my long departed father told me “You see all those skyscrapers in the CBD? Who do you think owns them? Insurance companies.”

    At which point he trotted out his experience with Larry Adler Sr, who sold him an annuity to which he contributed two shillings a week for many years, to be told when he tried to cash it in that it was worth less than what he put in due to ‘poor market conditions’.

    So whenever I can, I avoid insurance of any type, and take out the minimum with max excess when it’s compulsory.

  31. Short Newspoll Guess update.
    PB mean: ALP 54.1 to 45.9 LNP
    PB median: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 62

    Newspoll guesses recorded today.
    ALP / LNP
    52 / 48 j341983
    52 / 48 meher baba
    55 / 45 Question
    53 / 47 Red13

    I’ll post the full list (all 62+) later tonight and again if there is a Newspoll, for gloating reasons.

  32. C@tmomma @ #1089 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 3:57 pm

    jenauthor @ #1089 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 4:56 pm

    PeeBee that is the other thing that has been researched. Funerals need not be anywhere near as expensive as they currently are.

    Bereaved people are sitting ducks for statements like: ‘wouldn’t you like to give Mum/Dad/Whomever, a proper send off?’ Because they are at their most vulnerable, people often say yes to things without thinking about it and people who do question costs are portrayed as heartless.

    It is a conundrum for many.

    The next policy I’m going to try and get through the ALP is Human Composting. Everyone I have spoken to about it thus far has been in favour of it as an alternative to the palaver of funerals.

    I think I read somewhere it is being tried in Washington State (USA).

  33. Confessions @ #1085 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 4:53 pm

    Tom:

    And Hodgkinson has some strong support.

    Former Member for Gilmore Joanna Gash has thrown her support behind Ms Hodgkinson, citing “disappointment and disgust” with the Liberal Party’s decision to parachute a candidate into the seat.

    “It wasn’t a very easy decision but when I saw what had happened, it wasn’t hard,” Ms Gash said.

    “The other, disenchanted Liberals will have to answer for themselves, I’m only concentrating on holding this seat for the Coalition and by doing that, I’ll be supporting Katrina Hodgkinson.

    For Joanna, Mundine is not people like us.

  34. One thing Bob Carr reminded us of yesterday was that NSW, under his Premiership, and with absolutely no input from The Greens btw, was THE FIRST GOVERNMENT IN THE WORLD to legislate an Emissions Trading Scheme.

  35. Yep Sprocket. Banks and Insurance have been all but mandated for anyone who wants to survive in a western democracy.

    Any dealing with the govt must be via a bank account, and insurance companies piggy-back off that by insuring against risk.

    And because anything that involves risk (from living, to driving a car to owning a house, to getting sick) the scales have been tipped towards insuring against it.

  36. Pee Bee @4.08 pm:

    re tax on defined benefit pensions above $100,000 p.a.

    The information below was sent to its defined benefit pensioners by NSW State Super in June, 2018. I understand it applies to all defined benefit pensions above $100,000 p.a.

    June 15, 2018 – If you are receiving a SASS, SSS or PSS pension in excess of $100,000 per annum you will have to include 50% of the amount over $100,000 in your assessable income and pay tax on that income at your marginal tax rate.

  37. Senator Bernie Sanders would begin a 2020 presidential bid with 2.1 million online donors, a massive lead among low-dollar contributors that is roughly equivalent to the donor base of all the other Democratic hopefuls combined.

    Beto O’Rourke, the former Texas congressman who narrowly lost a Senate race last year, is also poised to be a fund-raising phenom if he runs for president: He has twice as many online donors as anyone eyeing the race besides Mr. Sanders.

    Three senators who are already running have their own solid track records with small donors. Senator Elizabeth Warren, with the third-highest number, has notable strength in New Hampshire, even topping Mr. O’Rourke there. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand has built up broad national support among small donors, despite a reputation as a big-money fund-raiser, while Senator Kamala Harris raised $1.5 million online in her first 24 hours as a presidential candidate.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/09/us/politics/2020-democrats-campaign-funding.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

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