BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor

The one new poll for the week maintains the trend of incremental improvement for the Coalition.

First up, please note the threads below this one dealing with state politics in South Australia and New South Wales.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate continues to inch in the Coalition’s direction with the addition of the Essential Research poll, the only one published this week. Whereas Labor finished 2018 with a lead of 54.4-45.6, the latest result has it at 53.1-46.9, which is a 0.4% shift compared with a week ago. However, this only makes one seat’s difference on the seat projection, with a projected gain for the Coalition in New South Wales. No new results for the leadership ratings this week.

Full results are available through the link below. There is a bit of bug here that often stops the state breakdowns from loading when you click on the tabs – I will get around to fixing this one day, but for the time being, it should work if you do a hard refresh.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,337 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor”

  1. “The amazing thing about Pyne’s interview this a.m. is his basic admission that there are a large number detainees with medical problems that can’t be treated where they are and the Government is completely unapologetic about denying them treatment.”

    The man is complete scum.

    “I’m more concerned about the torture aspect of confinement without hope.”

    Yup. Its in their DNA.

  2. Re the idea of asylum seekers “qualifying” to be evacuated to Australia for medical care.

    Clearly the aspect of this legislation, if passed, which will be tested will be that of psychological harm. The argument will presumably be that the psychological harm caused by staying on Nauru or Manus can only be addressed by urgent removal. It shouldn’t be too difficult to find two registered medical practitioners who would attest to this for each and every person currently on those two islands.

    One might then expect the Minister’s medical advisers to reject all but the most obviously worthy of such claims. However, one might then assume that each of these rejections will be tested through the courts, and that the first step will be to seek an injunction to have the applicant brought to Australia so that any delay in hearing their case would not result in further damage to that applicant’s health and well-being.

    The rule book for this game was written several decades ago. And I think it’s pretty reasonable to assume that, as soon as a court gives any leeway to any applicant, the people smugglers will attempt to start up their operations again.

  3. Player One:

    [‘…this is primarily a Green blog…’]

    If that’s the case, I am outta of here (only joking, Peg, Rex, nath, others).

  4. At what point do we start openly declaring anti-vaxxers a legitimate threat to public health? I cannot fathom why any parent would want to expose their children to the risk of hospitalisation, even death on ‘philosophical grounds’.

    With more than 50 cases of measles in Washington state, there’s been a new push to change the law. Washington is one of 17 states that allow parents to refuse vaccines for philosophical reasons.

    But on Friday, hundreds rallied to preserve their right not to vaccinate their children. Lawmakers heard arguments on a proposed bill that would ban the measles vaccine exemption for philosophical reasons. Thirty-two other states have similar laws.

    Measles is so contagious that an unvaccinated person has a 90 percent chance of catching the disease if they’re near someone who has it. The virus can survive for up to two hours in a room where an infected person sneezed.

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/washington-measles-outbreak-hundreds-rally-to-presesrve-not-to-vaccinate-children-2019-02-08/?ftag=CNM-00-10aab7e&linkId=63395701

  5. Kerryn Phelps sounds like just another politician throwing big scary numbers around with that Tweet. As BK pointed out, a bit of honesty would have helped.

  6. William Bowe @ #847 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 2:37 pm

    Last night was one of those occasions where I felt really bad to be the publisher of this blog. The Christopher Pyne thing was only part of the issue. So I’m of a mind to be more interventionist moving forward. I’m far from clear this will actually do more good than harm, but I at least have to try something. So if your comment is abusive towards another commenter, or part of a boring personal spat of no imaginable interest to anyone other than the two people engaged in it, don’t be surprised if it gets chopped; and if it does, please deal with the fact like a grown-up who understands whose blog this is, unlike some ex-commenters I could name.

  7. Greensborough Growler @ #998 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 3:10 pm

    Everyone in Australia qualifies for medical attention. But, I only go to the doctor a couple of times a year.

    That’s not quite the same thing. To see why, here is another direct quote from the same article …

    “Mr Pyne was repeatedly questioned how he could back up the Coalition’s argument that about 1,000 people on Manus Island and Nauru were so unwell that doctors would recommend they be moved to Australia.” (my bold!)

    To me, that implies that they actually do require treatment.

    Perhaps it is my use of the word “all” instead of the actual number “1,000” that Sceptic is questioning – but there are only 1,000 people left on Manus and Nuaru …

    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/manus-island-how-many-people-are-left-and-what-happens-now

    So I still don’t get it 🙁

    Apart for treatment for insanity. Everyone knows it’s hereditary and you get it from your kids!

    Now, that’s true! 🙂

  8. I am sure that the deterrent value of off shore detention faded some years ago. The “boat people” problem if it existed at all has been resolved by the turn back policy. The government continues to detain people off shore because the political stance they have taken makes it impossible for them to bring these people to Australia without them looking to have conceded that they were wrong. They may also not wish to lose the wedge they have used so effectively against Labor.

  9. Luiz de Castro was installing lamps at a mining complex in Brazil late last month when a loud blast split the air. He figured it was just a truck tire popping, but a friend knew better.

    “No, it’s not that!” the friend said. “Run!”

    Dashing up a staircase, caked in mud and pelted by flying rocks, Mr. Castro clambered to safety. But as he watched, a wall of mud unleashed by the collapse of a mining dam swallowed his co-workers, he said. Tiago, George, Icaro — they and at least 154 others, all buried alive.

    The deluge of toxic mud stretched for five miles, crushing homes, offices and people — a tragedy, but hardly a surprise, experts say.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/02/09/world/americas/brazil-dam-collapse.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

    And there are apparently 88 more dams like this one in Brazil, with all but 4 of them rated by the govt as equally vulnerable or worse. 😮

  10. I have long become dejected by the whole boat people policy and debate. Both sides of politics use protecting people from drowning as an excuse to treat them like criminals and subject them to a fate that is arguably worse than drowning. It’s not the Australia I thought we would ever become.

  11. My recollection from the interview is that Pyne didn’t mean to say ‘all’, but when Cassidy caught that and pressed him on it, he couldn’t back down so just rolled with it.

  12. Player One @ #1010 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 3:21 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #998 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 3:10 pm

    Everyone in Australia qualifies for medical attention. But, I only go to the doctor a couple of times a year.

    That’s not quite the same thing. To see why, here is another direct quote from the same article …

    “Mr Pyne was repeatedly questioned how he could back up the Coalition’s argument that about 1,000 people on Manus Island and Nauru were so unwell that doctors would recommend they be moved to Australia.” (my bold!)

    To me, that implies that they actually do require treatment.

    Perhaps it is my use of the word “all” instead of the actual number “1,000” that Sceptic is questioning – but there are only 1,000 people left on Manus and Nuaru …

    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/manus-island-how-many-people-are-left-and-what-happens-now

    So I still don’t get it 🙁

    Apart for treatment for insanity. Everyone knows it’s hereditary and you get it from your kids!

    Now, that’s true! 🙂

    The government’s view is clearly that should this wedge of hope be on offer that the incarcerated would conjure ailments that would allow them to challenge the system. My Pinky hurts, My libido is down, Pegasus has hurt feelings…..

    The issue is that we, as a nation, have allowed these souls to languish because we want to send a message to other potential AS that the outcome you get from trying is worse than the hell you currently endure.

    If it was genuine off shore processing then there might have been some genuine processing by now!

  13. My experience with aged-care extends to having both parents living and dying in them. One thing that I can point to respecting the RC is that uncertain audits should be mandated. Another, of course, is that they should be funded appropriately – the staff/patient ratio, particularly on weekends, is woeful. As far as abuse is concerned, notwithstanding privacy issues, cameras should be placed in rooms and common areas. And lastly, staff should be vetted with a fine-tooth comb:

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/confronting-aged-care-inquiry-likely-to-uncover-ugly-truths-as-pm-boosts-funding-20190210-p50wu4.html

  14. Late Riser,

    The Government doesn’t want everyone to know what heartless bastards they are.

    Why not ? They have thrived electorally for years because there are so many other ‘heartless bastards’ in Australia.

  15. Mavis Smith

    A good start would be to pay the staff better. From what I have read in the papers they are not well paid at all for the work they do.

  16. davidwh

    Both sides of politics use protecting people from drowning as an excuse to treat them like criminals and subject them to a fate that is arguably worse than drowning.

    Yessss!

  17. Davidwh @ #1015 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 3:26 pm

    I have long become dejected by the whole boat people policy and debate. Both sides of politics use protecting people from drowning as an excuse to treat them like criminals and subject them to a fate that is arguably worse than drowning. It’s not the Australia I thought we would ever become.

    Really? Australia has had discriminatory and racist immigration and refugee policies for nearly all of its history. It is the few years when we have not had them that are the anomaly.

  18. Re anti-vaxxers.

    I agree that they’re a problem, but they are also arguably just an extreme end of a spectrum which features a much, much larger number of people who ingest a large variety of quack remedies (or “complementary medicines” if you want to be more polite), subscribe to the food fad du jour (eg, “clean food” – whatever that is – and gluten free diets even though they don’t have coeliac disease), refuse cancer treatment etc.

    Lots of the people who get right into this sort of unscientific nonsense like to look down their noses at the anti-vaxxers and the climate change deniers. But science is science is science: just as it has been comprehensively proved that MMR vaccine does not cause autism, the studies that I’ve seen on the benefits of gluten-free diets to otherwise healthy people is that their impact is negligible and, if anything, slightly negative.

    Anti-vax beliefs are, of course, even worse than other unscientific ideas as they can clearly harm innocent victims: not only the children of the anti-vaxxers but also other people who are unprotected from communicable diseases for reasons other than personal choice.

    But most people, including many highly educated people, subscribe to some form or other of unscientific nonsense. So getting self-righteous towards the anti-vaxxers isn’t the go: indeed, like climate change denial, the movement feeds off criticism from “elites”.

  19. Mavis Smith

    ScoMo is showing just-in-time compassion (sic) by throwing a little money at it. After Puffy’s description of the small amount that trickles down to her mother after all the other ‘costs’ have been deducted, I can’t see much change happening, but lots of “good ole Scomo” and “but Labor”…

  20. Employers’ plan to sidestep Shorten

    3:23PM EWIN HANNAN
    Employers will press state Liberal governments to set up stand-alone agencies to police construction union if Bill Shorten becomes PM.

    So only South Australia, Tasmania and NSW(50:50).Good luck with that one.

  21. Confessions @ #895 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 3:28 pm

    My recollection from the interview is that Pyne didn’t mean to say ‘all’, but when Cassidy caught that and pressed him on it, he couldn’t back down so just rolled with it.

    The government simultaneously released a departmental briefing backing its claim that the medivac bill, if passed, would result in “most of the 1000 individuals” on Nauru and Manus Island securing doctors willing to recommend their transfer to Australia “within weeks”.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/no-middle-ground-morrison-digs-in-on-asylum-seeker-medivac-bill-20190209-p50wpj.html

  22. But most people, including many highly educated people, subscribe to some form or other of unscientific nonsense. So getting self-righteous towards the anti-vaxxers isn’t the go: indeed, like climate change denial, the movement feeds off criticism from “elites”.

    A significant proportion of anti-vaxxers and those who refuse to immunise their children are well-off, supposedly educated people. There was a study last year or year before that showed high rates of anti-immunisation in wealthy electorates and well-off communities and districts.

  23. 3:23PM EWIN HANNAN
    Employers will press state Liberal governments to set up stand-alone agencies to police construction union if Bill Shorten becomes PM.

    Developers/builders versus workers/unions. The eternal struggle.

  24. poroti:

    [‘A good start would be to pay the staff better. From what I have read in the papers they are not well paid at all for the work they do.’]

    Yes, that’s definitely a big issue. The pay for the ones below the RN is very average. The quality of food is another issue – mostly all mashed, at least in high-care, even for those who don’t have dementia-related swallowing difficulties, eg mobility issues.

  25. Davidwh

    Both sides of politics use protecting people from drowning as an excuse to treat them like criminals and subject them to a fate that is arguably worse than drowning.

    It was very instructive for me to see who took up the “saving lives” so early and so vociferously. Talk back radio land and some Coalition MPs who up until their discovery of ‘saving lives’ had been full on demonising the AS.

  26. Lets hope this is the final result:
    Tony Abbott is in danger of losing his seat of Warringah to independent candidate Zali Steggall, according to a poll.

    The barrister and former Olympic ski champion is leading the former prime minister 54% to 46% on a two-party-preferred basis, according to a ReachTEL poll of 622 residents commissioned by activist group GetUp and published in the Sun-Herald and the Sunday Age on Sunday.

  27. More scaremongering:
    REVEALED: How Chinese investors will snap up hundreds of thousands of ‘bargain’ Australian homes under Bill Shorten’s plan to cut negative gearing

  28. Another thing with the Saudi woman, the Government is showing that it’s not just boats, it’s anyone trying to get to Australia, exposing the saving people’s lives meme for bullshit that it is.

  29. meher baba says:
    Sunday, February 10, 2019 at 3:41 pm
    Re anti-vaxxers.
    But most people, including many highly educated people, subscribe to some form or other of unscientific nonsense. So getting self-righteous towards the anti-vaxxers isn’t the go: indeed, like climate change denial, the movement feeds off criticism from “elites”.
    ——————————————-
    I agree that anti vaxxers are just a more extreme example of a growing trend towards quackery. The ones who frustrate me are the anti fluoride nuts. I have lived with fluoride in my drinking water for all but a few of my 72 years. I have none of the problems that they claim are caused by fluoride and neither do any of my family. In fact I do not know anyone who has these problems. Common sense tells us that since we have had fluoridated water for many years the evidence for the claims they make should be readily available but it is not.

  30. Jenauthor, I agree whole heartedly with your comment. Very well put. C@t, there is a block function as long as you use one of the browser’s that support it but why should it be necessary?

    I visit this site for Mr Bowes insightful analysis of the dark art of political polling, the wide range of political views that are expressed and other topics that pop up now and then (I’ve learnt a few things that will come in handy for pub quiz nights) but the bastardry that occurs on here at times is way over the top.
    The two cents worth of a drive by poster.

  31. Have we really managed out detention centers so badly. Three thousand people need medical treatment and we are refusing to give it? Either we all have something to be ashamed of and the bureaucrats that manage the systems should hang their heads; or CP is full of shit.

  32. Barney in Go Dau

    Waaaay back a reporter for one of the newspapers went to Indonesia and spoke to some of those hoping to jump on a boat. There were two Hazaras brothers from Afghanistan and the reporter asked if they knew of the risk of drowning. The guy said of course people knew and he reckoned it was about 5% who drowned and so the odds of dying were much lower than if he stayed at home.

  33. I believe a more effective way of addressing the anti-vax problem in the US would be for states to prosecute parents of non-vaccinated children, who contract a preventable disease such as measles, with Child Neglect.

    Child neglect is a form of abuse in which the caregiver fails to provide for the child in some way that could result in physical, emotional, psychological, or even educational harm. When most people consider mistreatment of a child, they think of active abuse — the caregiver hurting or perhaps molesting the child — but neglect is basically passive abuse. For example, it would be neglect for a parent to leave her young children at home without food for an extended period of time.

    https://criminal.findlaw.com/criminal-charges/child-neglect.html

  34. lizzie:

    [‘ScoMo is showing just-in-time compassion (sic) by throwing a little money at it.’]

    It’s said that there are no votes in aged-care, evidenced by the relatively paltry amount spent in this area. I’m very skeptical of FauxMo’s decision to hold a RC, and doubtful that much will come of it, apart from numerous horror stories.

    They took 85% of my mother’s pension, with the result that she had left around $60 to spend on necessities. She was also required to pay a bond, which was refunded when she died, the interest going to the home.

  35. Add to the list – ‘chemical free’ foods and ‘natural’ insecticides.

    Some ‘natural’ gardening books on my book shelf have recipes for extracting nicotine for use as a herbicide. Nicotine is one of the nastiest poisons there is, but hey! it’s natural, so that’s OK, sprinkle it on the vegetables.

    I suppose you’ll die a ‘natural’ death.

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