The Guardian reports the first result from Essential Research in three weeks has Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, down from 53-47 last time. The changes on the primary vote are slight, with the Coalition up a point to 38% and Labor steady on 36% (CORRECTION: the Coalition is steady, and Labor down two). The Guardian report notes that Essential has changed the provider of the online panel from which its respondents are drawn from YourSource to Qualtrics, without changing the underlying methodology. Perhaps relatedly, the sample size is identified as 1652, where in the past it has been a little over 1000. The Guardian provides no further findings from attitudinal questions – we’ll see if the release of the main report later today provides anything on that front, along with the minor party primary votes.
UPDATE: Full report here. No change for the minor parties, with the Greens on 10% and One Nation on 7%. The poll was conducted between January 23 and January 31 – I’m not sure if this was a contingency for the long weekend, but in the past Essential’s field work dates have been Thursday to Sunday. Other findings:
• When presented with a number of explanations for a lack of gender parity in politics, the most favoured responses relate to the failures of political parties, and the least favoured relates to “experience and skills”. Gender quotas for parties have 46% support and 40% opposition, with age interestingly more determinative of attitudes here than gender.
• There are a number of questions on Australia Day, the most useful of which is a finding that 52% support a separate national day to recognise indigenous Australians, including 15% who want that day to replace Australia Day, with 40% opposed.
• Respondents were presented with various groups and asked who they felt they would prefer to see win the election. The most interesting findings are that the media was perceived as favouring the Coalition by 32% and 25%; that despite all the recent talk, pensioners were perceived to favour Labor by a margin of 42% to 28%; and that families with young children were perceived as favouring Labor by 50% to 21%.
UPDATE 2: It turns out that both the longer field work period and the larger sample were a one-off, to it will be back to Thursday to Sunday and samples of a bit over 1000 in future polls.
AR
[Hang on, why do hypothetical people smugglers get to have more influence on Australian policy than actual Australian voters?
And shouldn’t the policy be “people smuggling is illegal; Australia will seize any assets and freeze any accounts associated with people smuggling operations, and will vigorously work with overseas authorities to ensure that people smugglers are brought to justice and punished”, rather than “let’s make Australia look so awful that nobody is willing to sell tickets to Australia”?]
Why should Australia be beholden to the abilities of overseas authorities on this issue?
No major party seeing to obtain votes or keep them will focus on “overseas authorities”.
This is unbelievable!!! Self regulation always works really well – must be a first.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/07/self-regulation-by-the-pharmaceutical-industry-isnt-working-say-experts
We shouldn’t expect self-regulation to work with Dutton either. Phelp’s Bill makes him accountable ton two doctors, a major step forward in having checks and balances on arbitrary power.
Scott Buchholz thinks he can just say, ‘Duh! I was an idiot!’ and get away with appalling behaviour towards a woman who wasn’t his wife (hmm, that sounds familiar coming from a Coalition MP), or blaming the behaviour on too much grog on the night.
However, that avoids the onus of responsibility that should circumscribe the behaviour of anyone, let alone a federal Member of Parliament.
Don’t drink too much alcohol that you lose control and keep your hands off OPP!
Waiting for the Federal Icac….cast….. Tim Wilson, Ms Cash, Abbott…..Barnaby…….. probably more but cannot think of them now
mick Quinlivan @ #1754 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 2:03 pm
Yes, it puts into perspective how the Coalition want to run their campaign on anything but their performance and actions over the last 5 years and direct the focus away from all the fertile ground that Labor would have a federal ICAC till.
shellbell @ #1749 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 12:59 pm
Because if you want to catch the people smugglers where they live/operate, you’ve got to go to places that aren’t Australia and where Australian authorities have no power of their own.
It’s implicit that Australia will use its own domestic authority over any illegal operators it finds within its jurisdiction. But if you really want to attack the problem at its roots, you’ve got to work outside of the local jurisdiction. To do that you either need to cooperate with overseas authorities, or I guess you can pull a USA and just fly your drones around and shoot missiles at things without permission.
Australia might find it hard to get away with that last thing, however, given that it doesn’t have any nukes to act as a deterrent against retaliation.
That’s fine, parties can do whatever irrational things they want in the name of chasing votes. But you can’t actually stop the people you want to stop without involving overseas authorities.
grimace @ #1740 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 1:49 pm
Thanks for that, and I had thought about doing that, but decided that the payback period for the hardware and so on would not be worth it.
However I already have solar hot water heating, using the technology where a non-freezing fluid (necessary in Armidale) circulates through the panels, and which then heats the water. So long as the sun shines, I never run out of hot water.
If the sun shines a lot in the middle of the summer, the water boils (maybe once or twice a year), and the overload kicks in, spilling hot water out, and cold water in to the unit till it is back to a sensible temperature.
If we get three or four days of grey in winter, the electrical top up heater kicks in overnight when it gets below 60C, but I rarely need more than one or two kWh to get it back up to 60 C. And if the sun shines during the middle of the day in winter, I don’t need a top up overnight.
TPOF
For me it’s simple. Let’s leave cases to courts. That’s the system that keeps us safe from terrorism. We call it the rule of law.
The whole Offshore detention regime as Howard invented it is a way to by pass the court process. It’s certainly not got anything to do with deaths at sea.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/07/kerryn-phelps-urges-labor-not-to-cave-to-pms-scare-tactics-on-refugee-bill
Another Lib-Lab policy on the way …?
Rd Franking tax cash credits….. those who benefit are very well off…. obviously not eligible for age pensions….. it is impossible to formulate an example where it is otherwise…… sure those people have no taxable income but that is because… of super being tax free and or careful tax planning…… this was brought in on Costellos watch
Mick
You can safely throw in Dutton with all those conflicts over the family trust shares.
Ministers like Dutton are exactly why civil libertarians warn of the dangers of giving unfettered power to one individual. The errors can work both ways – locking up the innocent, and setting the guilty free. Here is another example where incompetence from the agency Dutton now heads in the Abbott era led to an alleged murderer remaining in Australia for five years due to refugee status that “could not be undone”. How many times has “national security” been used as a smokescreen to hide sheer incompetence and bloody-mindedness?
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/we-already-gave-him-refugee-status-how-murder-suspect-delayed-extradition-to-us-20190207-p50w6n.html
Ducking autocorrect
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/07/kerryn-phelps-urges-labor-not-to-cave-to-pms-scare-tactics-on-refugee-bill
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/06/labor-seeks-probe-into-possible-hayne-report-leak-and-signals-shift-on-asylum-bill
My take away from these articles is that Phelps, Di Natale, and Morrison are playing politics with the Asylum Seekers in off-shore detention. As Phelps, Di Natale, and Morrison are in opposition to Labor it’s not hard to see why.
It appears that Morrison’s response might be to propose an amendment to Phelps’s Bill, which if passed would mean that medical transfers to Australia might be allowed, albeit with additional oversight.
(a) This would be an improvement over the current situation for the people held in off shore detention.
(b) The LNP would not suffer a defeat in parliament.
Shorten is saying to Morrison, “You are doing a U-turn.”
Morrison is saying to Shorten, “You can’t be trusted.”
Di Natale is saying to Shorten, “Don’t be weak. Make up your mind.”
Phelps is saying to Shorten, “Don’t weaken.”
But it is only Phelps who is being heard. And it is having an effect. The lines “I’m not going to be a purist” and “We will have a look at what the government’s proposing.” are being interpreted negatively. (“Make up your mind.” “Don’t weaken.”) I was just told wtte that if Bill Shorten “caves in” on the issue then the ALP would lose a vote.
Phelps has made a lot of running on this issue. Di Natale is tagging along.
Vogon Poet @ #1533 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 12:33 pm
Fair enough BUT do not open the champagne. Wright was formed quite recently out of McPherson.
I will put it another way. Detention = Prison.
So let’s put them in prisons on shore subject to our law.
Let’s have our prisoners in sight not overseas and secret to pretend we are not doing this
Edit: and prioritise building in sight of parliaments so there is easy media access. See how politically acceptable this policy of indefinite detention is then.
“The wheels in my brain are turning slightly!!. Wright was the seat that Dutton wanted but was rebuffed by the locals.
Now who was it leaked that complaint!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Will Buckholz be forced out to accommodate our hero?”
I hope you are right and the media get onto Dutton being behind it. Albo or someone should raise the possibility just to give it an airing. Dutton must realise he is toast if he doesn’t move – perhaps rats seek higher ground as well as abandoning sinking ships?
Morrison’s “dream run” (more than two weeks of no serious fuck ups!) has come to end with a thud just as they get ready to go back to Canberra.
The only flaw in the theory is that the murdoch media that pushed Foley out the door in a day (rightly, it would seem) seem oddly quiet/calm about Buchholtz – if it was their boy Dutton’s play they’d be going harder.
Late Riser @ #1762 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 2:17 pm
Shorten has already had Labor pass Phelps bill in the senate.
If he capitulates, he’s a disgrace.
mick Quinlivan says:
Thursday, February 7, 2019 at 2:09 pm
Rd Franking tax cash credits….. those who benefit are very well off…. obviously not eligible for age pensions….. it is impossible to formulate an example where it is otherwise…… sure those people have no taxable income but that is because… of super being tax free and or careful tax planning…… this was brought in on Costellos watch
___________________________________
Mick. As anyone who has read my posts here knows I am totally against this rort. However, it is important not to dismiss everyone who gets the benefit of this as a rorter. There are plenty of people who bought small parcels of Commonwealth Bank or Telstra shares when they were privatised and still hold them but otherwise have nothing to do with the share market. These people, who may well be old age pensioners now, receive relatively small dividends and also get the benefit of the franking credits, but only enough to pay for Christmas presents for the grandkids.
They cost the revenue very little because of their small shareholdings, but it is their stories that the millionaire tax avoiders are hiding behind. You need to acknowledge these people exist in order to out the real rip-off merchants.
Goll @ #1594 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 10:06 am
What changes have you made because of global warming, Goll?
Rex Douglas, and if he doesn’t?
RD
That’s why I expect Dutton is panicking. From all the facts as compared to hearsay from a journalist Labor is with Phelps on this bill.
zoomster @ #1601 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 10:14 am
You are an advocate for doing nothing.
Don,
Voltage bounds are 216 to 253 V, so yeah, that sucks!
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/07/numbers-tell-devastating-story-in-latest-aboriginal-youth-suicide-inquest
Govts of recent decades should be ashamed of themselves.
“A massive HA HA!
The idiot is caught out telling porkies.
Peter Dutton admits he may be wrong in claim about Labor’s top-level security briefings”
Dutton’s accusations were reported on the news on ABC Radio National, but not Dutton’s subsequent admissions.
Dutton is an habitual liar. Nothing he says should be accepted and reported without checking.
I’ll bet big money that shorten will not follow through with the Phelps bill and will agree to support the government allowing Drs referrals with some oversight. They should make a negative security rating the only reasons not to follow Drs orders, and not leave it to ministerial discretion – dutton is so proudly a @#$ who will use every case to further torture vulnerable people for political advantage and personal enjoyment. but I think labor will compromise so not to allow the BOATS!!! scare to run again.
“good” politics – but fucking appalling behaviour.
Poroti
I know a hell of a lot more about Solon’s case than you will ever know. Details do matter.
While I agree that what happened to Vivian Solon was appalling, it was down to very serious errors of judgement on the part of a couple of people, not the department as a whole. I know for a fact that senior people were aghast at what happened and moved as quickly as possible to fix it – and not under external pressure.
Late Riser @ #1768 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 2:23 pm
Look at what’s occurred in those torture camps and tell me what you think of the Govts management and Labors dis-interest in going hard on it …?
grimace @ #1627 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 11:00 am
guytaur says:
Thursday, February 7, 2019 at 1:56 pm
TPOF
Exactly. Which is why we need review and not leaving it up to the Minister.
We set up such systems to catch the mistakes in a system humans set up.
___________________________________
I couldn’t agree more. Ministerial power exercised in secret is an ubertuberfuhrer special.
Late Riser
The scenario you mention is the one I am hoping for to be honest. My preference would have been for Labor not to get in to this in the first place, and address the medical transfers issue calmly in government. But now that we’re here, the best outcome would be a compromise between Labor and the government. Labor needs to keep in mind that the people pushing this bill are against offshore processing and want to undermine it. Offshore processing is rightly Labor policy, so Labor should not take any action to undermine that policy.
I know let’s put the “detention centres in marginal seats”. Let the voters that want inhumane cruel policies to punish the other see the consequences.
After all what’s to be scared of?
That’s what Labor should be doing. A put up or shut up to voters instead of the secrecy to hide our shame from the world.
Rex Douglas @ #1777 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 1:31 pm
It seems that what you’re saying is that Shorten is a disgrace no matter what Labor decide wrt the Phelps bill. I’m not sure then that you’re really commenting on it, or on my thoughts on it.
Why should Labor do dirty work for the Greens,
Rex?
Why should Labor take the fall for the Greens, only to be back stabbed?
Late Riser @ #1781 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 2:35 pm
If I go back a few months will I find your support of Labor passing the bill in the senate ?
Matt31
Unlike you I still believe in democracy.
I want informed voters.
So no BS that detention is connected to boats. The only connection is how far you go in turning back boats.
So put the centres in marginal seats so voters can say Yay look there are the prisoners we voted for.
Boat Turnbacks is not indefinite detention
Compassion does not equal open borders
Matt31
Plus you are hanging this argument on a Dutton Furphy.
Coalition Tea Lady
@ItsBouquet
6h6 hours ago
Imagine the thought processes inside the federal Coalition that lead them to implement programs which threaten to cut off food supplies to babies
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/07/one-in-five-parents-had-payments-cut-in-first-six-months-of-new-welfare-program
Evil Liberals.
TPOF
YEs I think we are on the same page and it’s why I think Labor should support Phelps Bill.
The old power corrupts adage
David Marler
@Qldaah
3m3 minutes ago
A Federal Government evaluation of its own remote work-for-the-dole scheme has found it has improved job outcomes by just 1 per cent, and most surveyed participants felt it had left their communities the same or worse off. #auspol
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-07/remote-work-for-the-dole-improves-one-per-cent/10789476
Evil Liberals.
Something for the “do nothings” here to contemplate …
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-07/climate-change-un-data-shows-2018-fourth-hottest/10788072
sustainable future @ #1773 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 10:29 am
I disagree.
Politically it’s more important at the moment to stay onside with the cross benches.
Unless the Government proposes amendments that significantly improve the bill, (highly unlikely) supporting the Government has little benefit.
The Potato has already had to back down on his scare campaign.
As for Ministerial discretion, there should be none.
If a person is ill and they can not receive the required treatment where they are they should be moved to Australia.
Their security assessment should just determine the level of security they are kept under in Australia.
What does the Potato want to do, let people die because they didn’t have the right security assessment?
P1
‘You are an advocate for doing nothing.’
I’m an advocate for doing things that actually make an impact, not just virtue signalling.
Dutton now claiming the absolutely ridiculous:
Zoomster
Ah yes. The old virtue signalling of the right.
A reminder. Bob Brown virtue signals on the environment all the time. He has become quite professional at it. Very effective
So the implication you are trying to make that amounts to nothing is wrong as historical evidence shows
Zoomster
Remember also Rodney Crome and allies “virtue signalling” on Marriage Equality
New Juice Media Ad, Your ABC:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pa8rSc2dung
Zoomster
Perhaps it is a mistake assuming the aim is to benefit people in remote areas. Gotta make sure shout back radio and Poorlene don’t start screaming even louder about all the ‘special treatment’ Aboriginals get. Gracious me that could cost votes.