Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

More evidence of a narrowing trend federally from Essential Research, albeit based on small shifts in the primary vote.

The Guardian reports the first result from Essential Research in three weeks has Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, down from 53-47 last time. The changes on the primary vote are slight, with the Coalition up a point to 38% and Labor steady on 36% (CORRECTION: the Coalition is steady, and Labor down two). The Guardian report notes that Essential has changed the provider of the online panel from which its respondents are drawn from YourSource to Qualtrics, without changing the underlying methodology. Perhaps relatedly, the sample size is identified as 1652, where in the past it has been a little over 1000. The Guardian provides no further findings from attitudinal questions – we’ll see if the release of the main report later today provides anything on that front, along with the minor party primary votes.

UPDATE: Full report here. No change for the minor parties, with the Greens on 10% and One Nation on 7%. The poll was conducted between January 23 and January 31 – I’m not sure if this was a contingency for the long weekend, but in the past Essential’s field work dates have been Thursday to Sunday. Other findings:

• When presented with a number of explanations for a lack of gender parity in politics, the most favoured responses relate to the failures of political parties, and the least favoured relates to “experience and skills”. Gender quotas for parties have 46% support and 40% opposition, with age interestingly more determinative of attitudes here than gender.

• There are a number of questions on Australia Day, the most useful of which is a finding that 52% support a separate national day to recognise indigenous Australians, including 15% who want that day to replace Australia Day, with 40% opposed.

• Respondents were presented with various groups and asked who they felt they would prefer to see win the election. The most interesting findings are that the media was perceived as favouring the Coalition by 32% and 25%; that despite all the recent talk, pensioners were perceived to favour Labor by a margin of 42% to 28%; and that families with young children were perceived as favouring Labor by 50% to 21%.

UPDATE 2: It turns out that both the longer field work period and the larger sample were a one-off, to it will be back to Thursday to Sunday and samples of a bit over 1000 in future polls.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,781 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  2. citizen @ #1792 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 10:53 am

    Dutton now claiming the absolutely ridiculous:

    Dutton warns Labor on doctors
    GREG BROWN
    Peter Dutton says Greens doctors Bob Brown and Richard Di Natale potentially could have the final say on Manus Island transfers under Phelps’ plan. (Oz headline)

    The call for medical transfer are normally/always(?) initiated by the treating doctors on site, usually after consultation with an expert in Australia.

  4. Guytaur

    You can put it as many different ways as you like, what you support is abolishing offshore processing and allowing people who arrive by boat to be processed and settle in Australia. You are completely entitled to that position. Where you are totally naive is to think that your position is acceptable to the majority of Australians. It most certainly is not. It is therefore not a position that any party of government can adopt. Labor unwound offshore processing in 2008, and at the time I was very happy they did so. But the facts are that we then had 50 thousand people arrive by boat, and that by 2013 the rate of arrivals was rising fast. Go back to any poll from that time and you will find that a majority of Australians wanted the boats stopped. Worse than that though, it led to general anti refugee and anti immigrant sentiment. You and others here may want a repeat of those years, I for one don’t. Labor’s policy is to continue offshore detention, and while I personally wish people’s attitudes were different, Labor is right to keep that policy. All I have said is that Labor should be careful supporting legislation proposed by people who want nothing more than to end offshore processing and find ways around it. Of course people in genuine medical crisis should be brought here, but medical transfers should in no way whatsoever be used to get around offshore processing.

  6. Dutton warns Labor on doctors
    GREG BROWN
    Peter Dutton says Greens doctors Bob Brown and Richard Di Natale potentially could have the final say on Manus Island transfers under Phelps’ plan. (Oz )

    Gold medal LOL argumentum ad absurdum. All hail Adolph Kipfler.

  7. Matt31

    You can try to shove as many red herrings as you like. If the policy is so great and supported by the public let the cameras in.

    I of course support Labor in opposing indefinite detention too.
    Lesser evil.

    That’s got nothing with turning back the boats. Labor has already made this official policy.

    None of the above is an excuse for the minister to have unfettered power to make the decision. That’s what you expect from Tin pot dictatorship

  8. What is it with MickMackCrack&Sack?

    “Deputy PM Michael McCormack says the first he knew his junior minister had to apologise for inappropriate conduct to a female RAAF officer was today. It’s his second junior minister who has had to apologise for their conduct towards women #auspol

  9. citizen says:
    Thursday, February 7, 2019 at 2:53 pm
    Dutton now claiming the absolutely ridiculous:

    Dutton warns Labor on doctors
    GREG BROWN
    Peter Dutton says Greens doctors Bob Brown and Richard Di Natale potentially could have the final say on Manus Island transfers under Phelps’ plan. (Oz headline)

    ________________________________

    Dutton is utterly sickening.

  10. Though the caravan has moved on here and elsewhere, the MDB issue bubbles along with the Greens Party ensuring it stays in the spotlight.

    Heard Sarah Hanson-Young this morning on the radio about the Greens private member’s bill…..

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/17/greens-to-introduce-bill-for-royal-commission-into-murray-darling

    The Greens will introduce legislation to establish a royal commission into the mismanagement of the Murray-Darling Basin when parliament returns in February, in the wake of the massive fish kill at Menindee last week.

    The Greens environment and water spokeswoman, Sarah Hanson-Young, said she would move to set up the inquiry, which will have power to compel testimony from bureaucrats and ministers. The call has been backed by the Northern Basin Aboriginal Nations (NBAN), which claims native title holders have been left out of important decision-making about the Darling River.

    But to have any chance of passing, the private member’s bill will need the support of Labor, which has so far backed the Murray-Darling Basin plan as the best way forward.
    :::
    “We have spent $13bn on the Murray-Darling Basin plan, yet the river system is in collapse,” Hanson-Young said. “This plan was put in place to fix the river, and cotton, corruption and climate change is killing it.

    “We’ve heard evidence of meter tampering, water theft, children being hospitalised because of toxic water, cases of fraud, donation scandals and corruption. The mass fish kill that has struck the Lower Darling in recent weeks is just the latest in a long list of problems with the management of the Murray-Darling Basin.
    :::
    Hanson-Young said the bill would be her first priority when parliament resumed.

    “The Liberal-National government, the Labor party and the crossbench should not waste this opportunity to do the right thing by our river communities, transparency, and the environment,” Hanson-Young said.

  14. Socrates

    That GetUp campaign must really be hurting 🙂

    Edit: plus the desperation is an indication the journalist hearsay is wrong or we would not be hearing from Dutton of course

  16. Richard Di Natale

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/07/kerryn-phelps-urges-labor-not-to-cave-to-pms-scare-tactics-on-refugee-bill

    The Greens leader, Richard Di Natale, also urged Labor not to be “spooked” by the government and to hold its ground.

    “They’ve [the government] have got nothing. So what they resort to, in the lead-up to an election is fear and division, divide our community. You are going to see more of it, you are going to see more of this attack on multiculturalism, you are going to see refugees used as a political pawn and my advice to Labor is grow a spine, stand up to them, don’t let them divide our community,” he said.

    “For too long, Labor have been trying to walk both sides of this. It was Labor who set up offshore processing, it was Kevin Rudd who ultimately said that people wouldn’t ultimately ever be settled here, well, it’s now up to Labor to decide whether they are prepared to stand up to a Coalition ready to run an election campaign on fear and division, or to show some decency, some humanity, some compassion, uphold international law and this bill does nothing other than to say to people who are sick, if you are sick under Australia’s care, you’ll get the help that you need”.

  19. I imagine the same applies to doctors as applies to all other Allied Health Professionals. You have to do accredited Continuing Education to keep your practicing licence current.

  22. Cat

    I have abstained from alcohol for ten years.

    On election night I will be drinking champagne as certain members lose their seats and Labor becomes the government.

    Be in no doubt I am sending a message by voting Green but I am not supporting the LNP in any way. 🙂

  23. Social researcher Hugh Mackay on social cohesion and the role of compassion

    http://johnmenadue.com/hugh-mackay-a-culture-of-compassion-edited-extract-of-australia-day-address/

    Yet I fear the trend is going in precisely the opposite direction. We humans are not at our best when we are trying to cope with a heightened sense of disruption, uncertainty, insecurity and anxiety, and when we lack a vision, a sense of direction, an explanatory narrative. At such times, we tend to become less compassionate, less tolerant, less forgiving, more self-absorbed, more prejudiced, more vulnerable to fear and generally harsher in our social attitudes. That’s what feeds our obsession with security; it’s what drives our unrealistic yearning for simple certainties; it’s what encourages misplaced faith in so-called ‘strong’ leaders; it’s what pushes some of us in the direction of political and religious extremism.

    But the fact that it’s natural for us to freeze up and turn inwards when we are feeling anxious and insecure only increases the urgency of my appeal. In fact, I regard compassion as the only truly rational response to an understanding of what it means to be human. Because we are members of a social species, we thrive when we belong to supportive communities. And if you accept that our moral sense – our moral code – derives from, and is constantly reinforced by, social interactions within a community, then it follows that the only way to ensure our social and moral health is by nurturing and sustaining those communities.

    And the only way to do that is by committing ourselves to the deeply civilising discipline of compassion – tempered, of course, by justice and fairness.

  24. di Natale

    “For too long, Labor have been trying to walk both sides of this. It was Labor who set up offshore processing, it was Kevin Rudd who ultimately said that people wouldn’t ultimately ever be settled here, well, it’s now up to Labor to decide whether they are prepared to stand up to a Coalition ready to run an election campaign on fear and division, or to show some decency, some humanity, some compassion, uphold international law and this bill does nothing other than to say to people who are sick, if you are sick under Australia’s care, you’ll get the help that you need”.

    _________________________________________

    Reminds me of Trump yesterday calling for bipartisanship while attacking the Democrats.

  25. She’s the original woman who’s done most of these ads.

    Perhaps, for some reason, I wasnt paying attention to them back then.

  28. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/07/australian-government-ignored-refugee-transfer-advice-from-its-own-doctors-for-up-to-five-years

    Asylum seekers and refugees are waiting as long as five years for specialist medical treatment even when it has been formally recommended by the Australian government’s contracted doctors, new data has revealed.

    Support workers and medical groups have accused the government of maintaining a “dangerous and sometimes fatal” system of care on Manus Island and Nauru, as MPs prepare to vote on a medical transfers bill which could see up to 1,000 people access long-awaited treatment within weeks.

    The analyses of patient data and letters to MPs calling for urgent and dramatic change come as Médecins Sans Frontières launch a telehealth service to resume treating the patients it was forced to leave behind when it was kicked off Nauru by the Nauruan government last year.

  32. Cat

    Its going to be ironic that a certain mansion in Wentworth will be partaking as hard as Labor and Greens headquarters if Dutton does indeed lose his seat. Ditto Warringah and Abbott. 😆

  33. Cat
    I have abstained from alcohol for ten years.

    I congratulate you. I struggle with 10 days. And go a month only because it is a challenge that must be won.

  36. Guytaur

    I agree with your differentiation between stopping boats and inhumane detention centres.

    I suspect most people do.

    But there is a large question mark over the way boats are stopped, because of lack of transparency (“I won’t discuss on water matters”).

    And whilst detaining ASs and Refugees in offshore detention might be acceptable there are many challenges for Labor by way of making the places humane, making the processes humane (eg medic evacs), speeding up processing to alternative suitable countries, and seriously reducing length of stay …… all with a good dose of transparency.

  37. Rex Douglas

    If I go back a few months will I find your support of Labor passing the bill in the senate ?

    Sorry, I had to step out.

    You’ve made it clear you think Shorten is a disgrace no matter what he does. All that is left is whether you support what Di Natale is doing today? Or Phelps? Or Morrison?

  38. P1

    It would be lovely if you learnt to read.

    I did not say people could not make changes (quite the contrary, I encouraged them to do so). I did not say they should wait for the government to act (people certainly need to put pressure on the government to do so).

    I did say that the effect of personal action is minimal. Household use – as I demonstrated with real examples – has a very small impact on emissions.

  39. SK

    Thanks. For me it was easy. I just decided I had had enough of the hangovers and stuck to it instead of whining every hangover day as I used to 🙂

  40. MPs prepare to vote on a medical transfers bill which could see up to 1,000 people access long-awaited treatment within weeks

    The real question here would seem to be “how sickly are the 1,000+ refugees in Australia’s care that basically all of them would be brought to Australia ‘within weeks’ on urgent medical grounds”?

    Not that I’ve seen anyone asking it.

  42. Psyclaw

    With Labor comes transparency

    If that transparency reveals horrors I think Labor will have moved the politics to end boat turnbacks. However only if there are horrors.

    It’s going to be interesting what is revealed

  45. Even Murdoch is admitting there are suspicions of insider trading after the Hayne report was given to the Morrison government:

    Hayne trade probe despite doubts
    2:26PMMICHAEL RODDAN
    Regulators will likely be forced to test claims of insider trading on leaked Hayne report details despite internal scepticism. (Oz headline)

  46. sprocket_ @ #1808 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 3:10 pm

    What is it with MickMackCrack&Sack?

    “Deputy PM Michael McCormack says the first he knew his junior minister had to apologise for inappropriate conduct to a female RAAF officer was today. It’s his second junior minister who has had to apologise for their conduct towards women #auspol

    Sugar Daddy tried this approach – “The scandal Mr Broad calls his “dumb mistake”

    Buchholz is trying the same approach – ” the federal government minister has admitted he “behaved like an idiot” while on a taxpayer-funded exchange with the Australian defence force, after a female air force officer lodged a complaint about his conduct. ”

    Will he get away with it – probably, a good chance anyway.

    In any case, what happened should be disclosed.

  47. “Nah, all of Australia will party! ”

    Absofrickinglutley. 🙂 The best booze and finest erbs will flow freely in many places. The “gloat” factor will…for a short time…be cranked up to 11 or so.

    Not that its won yet. Much could happen. But a bit of contingency planning and some measure of optomism is appropriate. 🙂

  48. SK Thanks. For me it was easy. I just decided I had had enough of the hangovers

    Oh, no, I gave up on hangovers years ago. I dont often drink to excess – and if it will be more than a few I make sure to drink plenty of water and eat some lemons.

    I would still like to drink less – especially beer. But one should have a vice or two…. or three…..

  49. Late Riser @ #1834 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 3:32 pm

    Rex Douglas

    If I go back a few months will I find your support of Labor passing the bill in the senate ?

    Sorry, I had to step out.

    You’ve made it clear you think Shorten is a disgrace no matter what he does. All that is left is whether you support what Di Natale is doing today? Or Phelps? Or Morrison?

    Morrison and Shorten are as self-centred and devious as one another. Both fake and dangerous.

    Re the Phelps bill, I hope it passes.

    Long term, I want offshore processing ended. I want more northern patrol vessels capable of safe turnbacks. Any asylum seekers who get through, humanely process them here and resettle them in 3rd countries.

  50. Dutton certainly seems to have completely lost the plot. Having said that, surely you should have to see someone in person to recommend a medical transfer?

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