The Guardian reports the first result from Essential Research in three weeks has Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, down from 53-47 last time. The changes on the primary vote are slight, with the Coalition up a point to 38% and Labor steady on 36% (CORRECTION: the Coalition is steady, and Labor down two). The Guardian report notes that Essential has changed the provider of the online panel from which its respondents are drawn from YourSource to Qualtrics, without changing the underlying methodology. Perhaps relatedly, the sample size is identified as 1652, where in the past it has been a little over 1000. The Guardian provides no further findings from attitudinal questions – we’ll see if the release of the main report later today provides anything on that front, along with the minor party primary votes.
UPDATE: Full report here. No change for the minor parties, with the Greens on 10% and One Nation on 7%. The poll was conducted between January 23 and January 31 – I’m not sure if this was a contingency for the long weekend, but in the past Essential’s field work dates have been Thursday to Sunday. Other findings:
• When presented with a number of explanations for a lack of gender parity in politics, the most favoured responses relate to the failures of political parties, and the least favoured relates to “experience and skills”. Gender quotas for parties have 46% support and 40% opposition, with age interestingly more determinative of attitudes here than gender.
• There are a number of questions on Australia Day, the most useful of which is a finding that 52% support a separate national day to recognise indigenous Australians, including 15% who want that day to replace Australia Day, with 40% opposed.
• Respondents were presented with various groups and asked who they felt they would prefer to see win the election. The most interesting findings are that the media was perceived as favouring the Coalition by 32% and 25%; that despite all the recent talk, pensioners were perceived to favour Labor by a margin of 42% to 28%; and that families with young children were perceived as favouring Labor by 50% to 21%.
UPDATE 2: It turns out that both the longer field work period and the larger sample were a one-off, to it will be back to Thursday to Sunday and samples of a bit over 1000 in future polls.
Fascinating to see how all the institutions (supposedly) designed to help people have better lives and a fairer society are being turned against them for the benefit of ‘the few’:
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/02/gops-giant-tax-reform-con-designed-trick-american-voters-now-backfiring-spectacularly/
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/02/06/siding-loan-sharks-over-consumers-trump-cfpb-moves-gut-payday-lender-regulations
The same seems to be happening here but on a smaller scale – MDB plan, Gonski ‘needs based’ education scheme, – – -.
This ‘capture’ process shows no signs of stopping.
lizzie
No, just don’t be complacent about it! You do what you can, just as you do with water restrictions, and it does make a difference.
The kind of self abnegation P1 seems to be promoting – whatever you do, it isn’t enough – is pointless, however.
I’m more arguing against complacency.
…and no individual is helpless, just as no individual’s action is pointless….but pick your battles, and realise you have to do more than alter your lifestyle.
sprocket_ @ #1532 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 8:06 am
Excellent question ❗
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_newspapers_in_Australia_by_circulation
The Australian 3 months Jul-Sep 2008 140,000
The Australian 6 months Jan-Jun 2018 88,581
And so on – just what the readers are reading (sport – comics) is anybodies guess.
Veerrry interestink.
Nevertheless it appears that many of the masterpieces from The Australian and The Daily Telegraph get a run on TV in the evening.
I have done my bit although I admit to reading the Daily Telegraph during a less salubrious time in my life (about 1968). I swear, your honour, I am a reformed character. 😇 😵
And
Thanks BK for you endeavours with the Dawn Patrol. Much appreciated – even if some of the items consist of BS piled on BS.
What on earth is going on in Virginia?!
https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/va-atty-gen-herring-appears-in-blackface-in-photo-from-college-days/2019/02/06/9aa4aff8-2a26-11e9-984d-9b8fba003e81_story.html?utm_term=.ef01dcd25720
Looks like she spent it all on cream buns.
zoom
complacent? moi? 😆
lizzie
Not what I’m saying!!
Geoff Wilson tells a different story about imputation credits
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/07/geoff-wilson-told-investors-labors-franking-credits-policy-easy-to-avoid
Without Republican control over congressional committees there is no longer a Nunes to run interference for the president. Also noting that Trump has referred to congressional oversight “presidential harassment” so this will be the new thing he whines and carries on about.
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/06/house-intel-mueller-investigation-1152048
zoomster
I know. Perhaps that LOL icon doesn’t quite give the right message.
Rossmcg @ #1557 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 4:59 am
I think he’s talking shit here when he says it’s a zero sum.
If a tax player utilises the franking credit that ensures that the dividend is taxed once, while someone paying no tax does the same then the dividend is not taxed at all.
So irrespective of what people do, under the Labor policy, about $6 billion of company tax receipts won’t be given to people paying no tax.
lizzie: “Remember the “Convoy of No Confidence” which turned into such a fizzer? ”
I prefered Albo’s more apt title: “convoy of no consequence”
zoomster @ #1546 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 8:36 am
You are as ill-informed as you are obnoxious, Z. No wonder Labor struggles to enunciate a decent policy on global warming if you are representative of the senior membership.
Sure, token gestures like putting solar panels on your roof (especially without batteries) will make very little difference, but grid-connected solar and wind farms will.
However, that’s entirely beside the point, as you well know.
The “bigger picture” is that we have to shut down entire industries to make a real difference.
But at the individual level, genuine lifestyle changes, such as relocating to reduce your commute times, or using public transport instead of private vehicles, or reducing the size of your house to reduce urban sprawl, or having more than two people living in each 250 square metre house, or living in communities with shared greenspace and facilities, or improving your recycling, reducing your consumption, changing your eating habits to include less meat, not using products made from old-growth forests, not flying to a holiday destination every year … these things are also going to be necessary.
And we can do many of these things now, which multiplies their benefit many times over things that most of us cannot hope to do for years or decades yet, like buying an electric car.
Labor – and you – are trying to pretend that we can address global warming without requiring any actual substantive change. This is a dangerous lie.
Big AA
This early in the morning, I knew there was a better version, but couldn’t remember it. 🙂
Barney in Go Dau says:
Thursday, February 7, 2019 at 9:17 am
Rossmcg @ #1557 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 4:59 am
Geoff Wilson tells a different story about imputation credits
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/07/geoff-wilson-told-investors-labors-franking-credits-policy-easy-to-avoid
I think he’s talking shit here when he says it’s a zero sum.
“And everyone who sells that share, that has benefited from that franking credit will sell it to someone that might be on a higher tax rate who will utilise that franking credit.”
Geoff Wilson suggested the reforms were “zero sum” but also acknowledged some people would not restructure their affairs and “miss out and Labor will get [some revenue from] that”.
If a tax player utilises the franking credit that ensures that the dividend is taxed once, while someone paying no tax does the same then the dividend is not taxed at all.
So irrespective of what people do, under the Labor policy, about $6 billion of company tax receipts won’t be given to people paying no tax.
_______________________________
I agree. All Wilson is doing is flimflamming his own investors, so they don’t panic and jump ship. It’s just not that easy. And if it was, they would be doing it right now.
Player One @ #1541 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 7:31 am
Fair point.
My local member:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/minister-apologises-for-idiot-behaviour-toward-female-raaf-member-20190207-p50w6x.html
P1
As I see it, the greater mass of people might understand that AGW is happening, but they have a thousand reasons not to change their lifestyle.
zoomster @ #1343 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 7:28 am
Zoomster4
First why fo you assume it is all about YOU.
You a a minor player in the Green/ALP wars.
Secondly what i am trying to DO is to get people to actually THINK about policies and decide just what if anything differentiates them from Greens. I am trying to analyse the Same/same discussion to see IF there is any validity to it. At this stage i have an open mind. We would ALL advance discussion if we can say why we are in the ALP rather than the LNP or Greens or PHON etc.
So I have looked at just ONE area ie renewables. Labor and the Greens are pretty close and the differences are about speed of action and the choice of methods. Yes there MAY be some underlying issues eg how tough would Labor be on Adani or other coal mines, but I will just stick to published policy to maintain as much objectivity as possible.
Now you think you have answered the question I asked but I am no wiser about your position.
So would you advocate the Victorian EPA refuses to licence the brown coal plants or puts them on a time line for closure. They have the power to do this (I wrote some of the laws). So rather than gnash your teeth answer, the question as best you can.
Remember Zoomster this is NOT an argument. I probably am on exactly the same page as you are.
lizzie says:
Thursday, February 7, 2019 at 9:30 am
Northern Beaches speak:
“lady in a chemist’s shop in Dee Why say to another lady, totally serious, that the refugee boats were currently massing in Malaysian waters ready to charge toward Australia if Labor wins the election.
______________________________________
Did she mention that they were armed with ballistic missiles carrying foreign diseases?
lizzie @ #1570 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 5:30 am
So much ignorance for the Government to tap into. 🙁
Barney and TPOF
I’d guess Wilson is no different to many of his ilk, investment advisors who have the perfect plan and regardless of whether it works or is right for the client will earn them a fat fee.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/07/one-in-five-parents-had-payments-cut-in-first-six-months-of-new-welfare-program
I love this. Democrat women wore white to the SOTU.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/05/us/politics/women-in-white-state-of-the-union.html?module=inline
‘If he were my grandfather I’d take him for a brain scan’: Nicolle Wallace on Trump’s mental state
SNBC anchor Nicolle Wallace worried about President Donald Trump’s mental state on Wednesday.
The “Deadline: White House” anchor played a highlight reel of Trump’s insults and the “sanctimonious” unifying messages he read off of a teleprompter in his State of the Union address.
“That says it all, I don’t really have anything to add,” said the host, who seldom is at a loss for words.
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/02/grandfather-id-take-brain-scan-nicolle-wallace-trumps-mental-state/
lizzie @ #1560 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 9:30 am
Ahhh ❗
Who was it that postulated that 50% of the population was of below average intelligence ❓
Information required from them what knows about such things.
An innocent child observing the lady in question would be absolutely unaware of the snakes, spiders, cockroaches and nightmares infesting the inside of her head. Best buy the kid an ice cream and let him/her carry on bravely. A resounding strewth and zounds from me ❗
Are people really that stupid ❓
On the other hand (how many is that now ❓ ) I like the comment below about the cream bun lady. 😇
“Trust me. I’m an actuary.”
The aim of franked dividends is that the government collects tax on lumps of excess money, either company profits, or as personal income, whichever tax liability is the greater.
Under the old system $10,000 of company profits paid out as a dividend was taxed at $3,000 for the company profit and a further, for example, $0.42c for the shareholder. This means that the government collected $0.72c out of every dollar used to pay dividends, leaving only $0.28c cash to spend (presumably on a sandwich and a milkshake).
Keating got rid of this, and made it so that either the company paid tax on its profits or, if those profits were distributed as a dividend (and thus became personal income), they were taxed at the personal rate of the shareholder (with tax already paid by the company factored in).
The intention was for the government not to be too greedy by double-dipping on the profits earned. The aim was to collect at least SOME tax on the profits, not give it ALL away simply because some profits were reclassified as “dividends”. They were still profits, accounted for after the company’s accountants had paid wages and all the other expenses that cone out of gross revenue, including tax losses from previous (unprofitable) years.
What the actuary is spruiking is that, by virtue of the company declaring (or renaming) profits as something called “dividends” they should rightfully become immune to being taxed at all., and that by the stroke of an accountant’s pen the recipients of dividends should be able to bypass all the income tests and regular reporting obligations to Centrelink that ordinary pensioners have to do, and just pocket a freebie from the other unlucky taxpayers who are NOT in on the scheme.
Pig’s arse to THAT!
The aim of government is to run the country. It funds this by collecting taxes on income and profits. It NEEDS that money. The wealthy retirees should count themselves lucky they aren’t taxed twice, not be whingeing that they are taxed at all.
What’s the bet that there will be a news article on the first boats leaving Malaysia or Indonesia and that it is piloted by people who have been paid for by members of the LNP?
From that Wilson article:
“At times emotional, he read testimonials from affected retirees including a 68-year-old who receives $25,000 in franking credit refunds which she says pays her rent and to help support a disabled dependent adult child, also set to lose $800.”
That is a minimum net income of over $83,000 (not counting the son’s income). Bloody hell! How many Australians get to take home $83,000 after tax?
Australia – We Hate Refugees SO MUCH™
House Intel Democrats Just Restarted and Supercharged the Trump-Russia Probe
Armed with subpoena power, Schiff will look at whether anyone connected to Trump was at risk of being co-opted by a foreign power—and that’s going to have an expansive scope.
Schiff said that the committee will probe whether anyone, “foreign or domestic,” sought to “impede, obstruct and/or mislead” the intelligence committee’s investigation or any others. And that, he said, includes “those in the Congress.”
https://www.thedailybeast.com/house-intel-democrats-just-restarted-and-supercharged-the-trump-russia-probe
BB
From that article by the actuary:
“This policy is akin to not refunding PAYG tax withheld from employees by an employer over a financial year, to the extent that the total tax withheld exceeds the final year tax liability, as determined by an individual’s tax return.”
Either the person is totally ignorant or totally deceitful.
The PAYG ‘tax withheld’ is actually part of the employee’s earned income. It is always the employee’s money, the income based on the employment contract with the employer. The fact that an employer takes it out is just a matter of convenience for the tax office.
Company tax is paid by the company, which is a totally separate legal entity from the shareholder. The company could choose never to pay a dividend and, instead, reinvest the after tax profits. In that case there are no franking credits. The company certainly doesn’t employ the shareholder and, more importantly, the company has no legal duty to declare a dividend of any kind.
Mr actuary should know this. As should anyone else spruiking the bullshit about the company paying tax ‘on behalf of the shareholder’. If that was the case, shareholders would be liable for any and all debts of the company. Which they are not.
These people resort to outright lies because there is no truth that would justify their greed.
Re. the lady in Dee Why… I have an acquaintance in Forster who regularly (and seriously ) assures me that by 2025 Australia will be ruled by Sharia Law.
Where are they getting this crap?
phoenixRed:
Plus Schiff has said he will provide transcripts of witness testimony to the committee to Mueller, thereby providing him with official documentary evidence to be able to charge anyone with perjury.
Confessions says: Thursday, February 7, 2019 at 9:57 am
phoenixRed:
House Intel Democrats Just Restarted and Supercharged the Trump-Russia Probe
Plus Schiff has said he will provide transcripts of witness testimony to the committee to Mueller, thereby providing him with official documentary evidence to be able to charge anyone with perjury.
***********************************************************
The wheels seem to be turning just that bit faster now ……. and the walls moving in on those who may have something to be worried about
Bushfire Bill @ #1585 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 5:54 am
Well Border Force is applying it to certain females travelling alone.
In a nutshell what “Mr Actuary” is saying it that any profits distributed to shareholders should be completely tax free at either the company end, the shareholder’s end – or both.
Woukd he advocate the abolition of the Franked Dividend mechanism altogether and just say “Gimme the money, all of it, tax free”?
This would certainly save a lot of faffing about with accountants, declarations, tax returns and other such boring paperwork, from BOTH the company and the shareholder.
Except it might look a trifle greedy.
Bushfire
Where are they getting this crap?
From the same place my BIL gets his information
He has declared he will be destitute if Labor wins the election.
He is an avid reader of the Murdoch press.
Here’s what Mueller will be able to prove now that he has the House Intelligence Committee transcripts: ex-prosecutor
A former federal prosecutor explained Wednesday that special counsel Robert Mueller will have more ammo than ever before now that he’s gotten transcripts from the House Intelligence Committee’s Russia probe interviews.
Joyce Vance, the former U.S. Attorney for the Northern District of Alabama, told her MSNBC co-panelists that Mueller has been given a “pregnant list” of transcripts from individuals like Steve Bannon, Donald Trump Jr., Jared Kushner, Brad Parscale and more.
“Now he’s got what he needs,” Vance concluded. “I’m sure Donald Trump Jr. is at the top of his list. There has been public reporting that indicates he may have contradicted himself. But there’s no telling how deep into this list he could be looking.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/02/heres-mueller-will-able-prove-now-house-intelligence-committee-transcripts-ex-prosecutor/
Player One
Labor and Z do care.
They are just a little more realistic than your attitude which has buckleys chance of being implemented tomorrow.
Why you feel a need to criticize organizations and people with a good understanding of climate change and global warming.
Focus on the inhibitors of climate change rectification and not the good guys.
Dont reply. I’ve read enough of your ‘well intentioned ‘ bullshit and daresay so have many others.
BB
Mr retired actuary may have an actuary once but how he’s just a greedy, selfish old bastard.
https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-06/crossbench-support-for-more-sitting-days-after-banking-inquiry/10787536?pfmredir=sm&sf207314266=1&smid=Page:%20ABC%20News-Facebook_Organic&WT.tsrc=Facebook_Organic
Schiff ups the ante:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/feb/06/house-democrats-new-investigation-trump-russia
phoenixRED @ #1592 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 7:05 am
Yep and like I said before, this is what should’ve happened by now, except Trump had Devin Nunes in the chair to run interference for him.
“lady in a chemist’s shop in Dee Why say to another lady, totally serious, that the refugee boats were currently massing in Malaysian waters ready to charge toward Australia if Labor wins the election.
______________________________________
“Did she mention that they were armed with ballistic missiles carrying foreign diseases?”
Or that Corgi and Eric are frightened that their men folk are going to marry all our gay camels!!