The Guardian reports the first result from Essential Research in three weeks has Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, down from 53-47 last time. The changes on the primary vote are slight, with the Coalition up a point to 38% and Labor steady on 36% (CORRECTION: the Coalition is steady, and Labor down two). The Guardian report notes that Essential has changed the provider of the online panel from which its respondents are drawn from YourSource to Qualtrics, without changing the underlying methodology. Perhaps relatedly, the sample size is identified as 1652, where in the past it has been a little over 1000. The Guardian provides no further findings from attitudinal questions – we’ll see if the release of the main report later today provides anything on that front, along with the minor party primary votes.
UPDATE: Full report here. No change for the minor parties, with the Greens on 10% and One Nation on 7%. The poll was conducted between January 23 and January 31 – I’m not sure if this was a contingency for the long weekend, but in the past Essential’s field work dates have been Thursday to Sunday. Other findings:
• When presented with a number of explanations for a lack of gender parity in politics, the most favoured responses relate to the failures of political parties, and the least favoured relates to “experience and skills”. Gender quotas for parties have 46% support and 40% opposition, with age interestingly more determinative of attitudes here than gender.
• There are a number of questions on Australia Day, the most useful of which is a finding that 52% support a separate national day to recognise indigenous Australians, including 15% who want that day to replace Australia Day, with 40% opposed.
• Respondents were presented with various groups and asked who they felt they would prefer to see win the election. The most interesting findings are that the media was perceived as favouring the Coalition by 32% and 25%; that despite all the recent talk, pensioners were perceived to favour Labor by a margin of 42% to 28%; and that families with young children were perceived as favouring Labor by 50% to 21%.
UPDATE 2: It turns out that both the longer field work period and the larger sample were a one-off, to it will be back to Thursday to Sunday and samples of a bit over 1000 in future polls.
P1
‘Labor – and you – are trying to pretend that we can address global warming without requiring any actual substantive change. This is a dangerous lie.’
Au contraire. I’m arguing that the kind of changes you advocate are not substantive, and that yours is thus the dangerous lie.
“Mr actuary should know this. As should anyone else spruiking the bullshit about the company paying tax ‘on behalf of the shareholder’. If that was the case, shareholders would be liable for any and all debts of the company. Which they are not.”
Yup. Sooooo much bullshit about this and it all comes down to people wanting to keep the lolly they have had under the rort.
dtt
I’m sorry, there’s no point engaging with you on this.
Firstly, if it’s not all about ME, why are you continually asking me for my opinion?
Secondly, if I answer a question twice, refer you to these answers the third time, and you then ask me the same question a fourth time, why should I assume you’re going to understand my answer any better if I try it again?
Confessions says: Thursday, February 7, 2019 at 10:09 am
phoenixRED @ #1592 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 7:05 am
Yep and like I said before, this is what should’ve happened by now, except Trump had Devin Nunes in the chair to run interference for him.
******************************************************
I am sure that Nunes is clearly in Schiff/Mueller crosshairs for his part in his attempts “impede, obstruct and/or mislead” the investigations that have been taking place …..
lizzie says:
Thursday, February 7, 2019 at 10:18 am
@samanthamaiden
5m5 minutes ago
All kinds of stupid also on loose re Labor’s legal advice being void because barrister is an ALP member. It’s as useful or useless as any other piece of advice. Are journos suggesting barrister’s law degree is cancelled by ALP card? Extremely dumb.
_____________________________________
That’s like saying the solicitor-general’s advice is void because the government pays his salary and there is a conflict of interest. Come to think of it, there is quite a good argument for that…..
Bushfire Bill says:
Thursday, February 7, 2019 at 9:54 am
Re. the lady in Dee Why… I have an acquaintance in Forster who regularly (and seriously ) assures me that by 2025 Australia will be ruled by Sharia Law.
Where are they getting this crap?
Via chain emails and their facebook groups.
Some of it can “look” legit if you don’t try fact finding…
Why do the media keep referring to Tim Wilson and Geoff Wilson as distant relatives? Geoff Wison’s father and Tim Wilson’s grandfather were brothers. Geoff Wilson and Tim Wilson’s father were cousins. That makes Tim and Geoff 2nd cousins. Not exactly distant.
“That’s like saying the solicitor-general’s advice is void because the government pays his salary and there is a conflict of interest. Come to think of it, there is quite a good argument for that…..”
And didn’t we have a “and the High Court SHALL SO RULE!!” moment in the not so distant past?? 🙂
And hey, exactly when does parliament go back?? next week tuesday??
imacca @ #1607 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 6:25 am
Maybe?
The way things are going this week, Scotty may yet jump! 😆
Alpha Zero says:
Thursday, February 7, 2019 at 10:23 am
Bushfire Bill says:
Thursday, February 7, 2019 at 9:54 am
Re. the lady in Dee Why… I have an acquaintance in Forster who regularly (and seriously ) assures me that by 2025 Australia will be ruled by Sharia Law.
Where are they getting this crap?
Via chain emails and their facebook groups.
Some of it can “look” legit if you don’t try fact finding…
—————————————-
They could just try thinking for themselves a bit. But that may be a big ask of a tory voter.
At times emotional, he read testimonials from affected retirees including a 68-year-old who receives $25,000 in franking credit refunds which she says pays her rent and to help support a disabled dependent adult child, also set to lose $800
$25,000 in franking credits, so total gross franked dividends of 25,000 / 0.3 ≈ $83,000
Assuming a typical rate of return of about 5%, this would represent shares to the value of about 58333/0.05 ≈ $1.67 million. Way too much to qualify for a part pension. This lady is a millionaire. If she has structured her lifestyle around receiving refunds of tax she didn’t pay, she’s also an idiot.
So please pass the electron microscope so that I can find a violin small enough play a tune that fully expresses my sadness at her plight.
EDIT: have to admit that I missed the bit about the disabled son. Even so, there are far better ways of helping the disabled than sending handouts to all retired millionaires. And which party will better care for the needs of the disabled? Not the party she votes for, that’s for sure.
She doesn’t explain the $800 for the disabled son, so I can’t comment on that.
zoomster @ #1406 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 9:17 am
Zoomster
I am asking everyone the same questions.
You gave such a vague answer that i am not sure you understood the question.
What i have gleaned from your vague answers is that you want the brown coal plants to close.
However my question is simply this
1. Do you want to BAN them ie by government decree – using whatever laws are avaialble.
2. Does this also apply to other fossil fuel plants?
3. Are you happier with using market type mechanisms – carbon price, subsidies, taxes etc to encourage the closure of stations rather than an outright ban
Jeepers Z it is not a hard question. Please refer me to the posts where you answer this question. Yes I DO get it that you have been advocating for closure of the brown coal stations, but since I do not have access to you media releases for the last 20 years can you fill me in and tell me if you wanted the government to close them.
I am inclined to think the answer is yes, so in the absence of more clarification i will move you to the Greens leaning pile ON THIS question
Another LNP pollie getting pissed and sleazy on the tax payers’ dime. The self-entitled boyz club rolls on. I’d like to see a cross-bencher introduce legislation that pollies have to pay for their own drinks from now on and get alcohol tested before entering parliament (Abbott, Barnaby and many others would be farked). Is there any other high paying profession in Australia where you can get pissed at work on the businesses’ account?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/07/minister-admits-inappropriate-behaviour-towards-female-raaf-officer-on-work-trip
so with Buchholtz and Wilson needing to resign, questions over Dutton’s eligibility, and a lame duck PM with no legislative agenda who just wants to avoid parliament but cling to power in the hope labor fucks up (and so they can reward coal and other sponsors – and set political minefields for labor as they depart) can we just have the election now please?!
I am worried re: media coverage – the pace at which nine media have converted the remaining slightly left of centre fairfax newspapers into pro LNP /anti ALP vehicles is distressing. There is no mainstream media balance – the ABC is too cowed to ever try to provide it and the Guardian is only read by the converted. The election will be closer than we hoped – despite the best efforts of randy piss heads in the government.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/07/geoff-wilson-told-investors-labors-franking-credits-policy-easy-to-avoid?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
dtt
I don’t give a f who closes them or which mechanism is used to do so.
DtT
Does ‘pissing into the wind’ qualify as renewable energy?
Discuss.
Steve777
EDIT: have to admit that I missed the bit about the disabled son. Even so, there are far better ways of helping the disabled than sending handouts to all retired millionaires. And which party will better care for the needs of the disabled? Not the party she votes for, that’s for sure.
She doesn’t explain the $800 for the disabled son, so I can’t comment on that.
_______________________________________
1. Re the disabled son – the NDIS was intended to create an across the board high level of support. People across the financial spectrum have disabled children. While I am sympathetic on that count, I can’t get too excited when I know that money could help fund a better NDIS to assist less fortunate parents with disabled children.
2. The disabled son would have investments in his own right – perhaps creating franking credit refunds because the total income does not exceed the tax free threshold. Again, some parents do not have the wherewithal to do this.
Goll @ #1615 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 6:44 am
No because you have to replenish your fluid levels. 😆
They could just try thinking for themselves a bit. But that may be a big ask of a tory voter.
_____________________________
They are. That’s the scary bit!
TPOF @ #1618 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 6:47 am
They said “for” not “of”!!! 🙂
sf
There used to be lots, ah the days of the liquid business lunch. Although I am sure there are still plenty getting paid to be pissed doing ‘business’.
If any musical (or non-musical for that matter) Bludgers want some relief from the political hurly-burly, try this version of the Mozart clarinet concerto, played by the Iceland Symphony Orchestra.
A sublimely beautiful performance.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=YT_63UntRJE
Barney
The pisser could qualify for a grant from the Emissions Reduction Fund and thus contribute to carbon abatement.
Goll @ #1622 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 6:52 am
Isn’t that painful? 😆
Goll
Nah,at some stage on the journey to alcohol yeast farted CO2 into the air. As for reduction of ’emissions’ , have you seen some of Barnyard’s QT efforts post ‘lunch’ ? Although in Abbott’s case on at least one occasion it reduced emissions to zero post piss.
zoomster @ #1551 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 5:44 am
P1 just wants to burn more gas. No mention of where that gas is going to come from, or that it would be more efficient to jump straight to large scale PV, wind, pumped hydro and batteries.
More Lib trickery… another astroturf “foundation” run by and for right wing louts and trucker spivs, claiming to be defending the “hundreds of thousands” of poor (literally) investors, all “victims” of “Labor’s $45 billion tax on retirees”.
‘Retiree group’ lobbying against Labor unmasked as Liberal Party and trucking industry operation
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/retiree-group-lobbying-against-labor-unmasked-as-liberal-party-and-trucking-industry-operation-20190205-p50vvo.html
Barney and Porotti
Barnaby often looks in pain and well abated after lunch.
On Buchholz.
So why didn’t he apologise at the time?
There should be no thought of him staying a Minister, there is a precedent here with Jamie Briggs.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-07/liberal-frontbencher-admits-inappropriate-behaviour-defence-raaf/10785572
How goes the Caliphate these days ? Seems somewhat shrunken.
NYTIMES.COM › Annotations
A Desperate Exodus From ISIS’s Final Village
……….. an area where the group once ruled a dominion the size of Britain…………………… The militants are now trapped in an area about the size of Central Park.
https://outline.com/xuZqJ3
Many of the honourable members of the current Turnbull/Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison/??? government have been very keen to promote and manage their own SMETS during the course of this current ensemble.
Quietly, without ado, until force to emit their preferred peccadillo, showed no sign of abatement and became a headliner of significant proportions.
I have sent an email to Wilson asking for the qualification criteria by which I receive a “tax refund”, despite having no obligation to submit a tax return because I have no income subject to an assessment therefore contribute no tax.
I sent a similar email to Frydenberg some 3 weeks ago.
In both instances I have so far only received an acknowledgement of the receipt of my email
Perhaps others may wish to so query Frydenberg and Wilson to see if they receive a response?
Retired actuary Tony Dillon explains why he disagrees with Labor’s franking credits policy.
“It disturbs me that an opposition leader who aspires to be our next Prime Minister seemingly has a lack of understanding of one of his signature policy proposals.”
It disturbs me that someone who doesn’t understand the concept of separate legal entity was able to get his musings published in a major mainstream newspaper.
That is, for those situations where investors have no other tax liability to which franking credits can be offset. This policy is akin to not refunding PAYG tax withheld from employees by an employer over a financial year, to the extent that the total tax withheld exceeds the final year tax liability, as determined by an individual’s tax return.
A completely incorrect and misleading analogy. PAYG tax relates to the legal entities own tax affairs, not the tax affairs of a different legal entity.
“A company generates profit and declares dividends to be paid to its shareholders. Person A is a shareholder and has a number of shares such that she receives a $7000 dividend, net of tax paid by the company in respect of her dividend. Now the company pays 30 per cent tax on all profits generated, whether distributed as dividends or not.
Effectively the company has generated $10,000 gross profit on her behalf and was therefore liable to pay $3000 tax in respect of her gross profit. So, she receives $7000 with the remaining $3000 being tax paid on her behalf by the company.”
FFS! Everyone repeat after me: “A company is a separate legal entity to its owners and as such generates it’s own profit and pays its own tax bill. The affairs of the separate legal entity which owns the shares are irrelevant”.
Tony Dillon is a retired actuary.
Mr Dillon clearly demonstrates that expertise in one area does not give you expertise in another area.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/labor-is-exploiting-misunderstandings-about-franking-credits-20190206-p50w0p.html
Thanks BK for you endeavours with the Dawn Patrol. Much appreciated – even if some of the items consist of BS piled on BS.
_____
KayJay
Just part of the “balanced’ service.
Yes, my question for the Wilson Family Trust is this: why DOES someone who pays $0 tax get a tax refund? This seems highly irregular to me.
Sure, reduce the tax bill with franking credits, by all means. But a “refund” after you hit zero tax liability? How do you justify that?
Genuinely interested in the answer.
If they can’t answer it – keep asking it.
I’m sure the hard-done-by self-funded retirees will swiftly find a way to save their incomes. Even the Wilson Trust person has suggested it won’t be hard.
lizzie @ #1636 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 8:28 am
Grimace BBus CPA would humbly suggest to Mr Wilson Snr that he be very careful about providing such advice lest he be caught up by the laws around promotion of tax avoidance schemes, his clients be caught up by the laws governing tax avoidance or that he fall foul of laws requiring him to act in the best interests of his clients.
lefty e @ #1634 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 7:25 am
Yep, franking credits as they stand represent the concept of a negative tax liability.
Second installment of my policy analysis
I am just using the greens as a start base
Greens: Our plan to clean up politics:
1. Ban political donations from mining, property development, tobacco, alcohol and gambling industries. Cap all other donations and make sure every donation over $1000 is disclosed publicly, in real time · More »
2. Ban MPs and senior staff from accepting lobbying jobs after they retire and require the publication of the subject of all meetings with lobbyists · More »
3. Root out corruption by establishing a federal anti-corruption commission that can undertake investigations of politicians · More »
4. Protect the rights of citizens and community groups to speak out · More »
5. Ensure all of us are represented and able to participate in our democracy · More »
6. Save the ABC & SBS · More » (Listed for convenience but not included in THIS section)
Relevant ALP policy
1. Labor will continue to promote transparency and accountability by maintaining and promoting a
transparent culture across Australian Government agencies and will continue to support robust
mechanisms for Public Interest Disclosure, Freedom of Information and mechanisms for receiving,
investigating and prosecuting complaints concerning alleged corruption in public office or
administration.
2. Labor will observe the United Nations Convention Against Corruption and will establish a National Integrity Commission while also continuing to develop and implement other measures of and implementation of a national anti -corruption plan.
3. Labor will ensure continue to promote Australia’s international engagement on anti-
corruption matters, including through active engagement in the Open Government Partnership.
4. Labor established whistle-blower protection in the public sector when last in office. However, there
still needs to be whistle-blower protections across the private sector and Labor commits to deliver this.
5. Corruption prevention and education are important integrity building measures in addition to
corruption investigation, detection and enforcement. Labor will ensure all bodies that have special
powers to inquire, investigate, and make findings in relation to alleged corruption, are required to
have regard to the rules of evidence and natural justice.
6. In office, Labor established a Code of Conduct for Ministers and their staff. Ministers, staff and all
members of Parliament should follow clear standards relating to their behaviour, contact with
lobbyists, receipt of any gifts, and disclosure of any potential conflicts of interest which may affect
them carrying out their public duty.
Liberals silent on this.
So to summarize
Greens: Ban or reduce donations, ban MPs from lobbyist roles on quitting, IAC, whistleblower protection, citizen democracy
Labor: more disclosure, code of conduct for ministers, IC, whistle blower protection, some rules
Liberals: no problems do nothing.
So there are two significant points of ALP/Green difference. One relates to the role of corporate donations and lobbying with the Greens much stronger on this issue, with labor more or less absent. The other related to increased citizen democracy where i do not think the ALP has any view at all – it is an emerging sort of issue.
Unless I specifically hear otherwise I will allocate everyone into their public party allegiance on these .
My own position on these is closer to Greens than Labor.
Look forward to hearing from some of you.
lefty e
That is the line labor should use. Short and sweet . “Why should someone who pays no tax get a tax refund?” . Any attempted technical repudiation would drown in details and cause the average voter to Zzzzzzz .
Agree Poroti – it’s the line that’s simple and will turn it all back on the Libs.
Watch any Lib try to explain that one to PAYE taxpayers, and its game over.
Aged Care cuts
https://outline.com/Bs56pW
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/health/savings-cuts-create-agedcare-losers/news-story/4f2cf2b7c2054f868dafa9fdcae725ac
BB , thanks for the Mozart, as a couple who texted the ABC Classics the other morning said, “he’s one of our favourites but he hasn’t written anything good lately”
Dog’s
Years ago, a local radio station did a day of playing ‘covers’.
One song played was David le Roth’s version of “Putting on the Ritz”.
The DJ commented that the song had been written by some guy called Irving Berlin.
“Never heard of him,” she snorted. “He can’t have done much.”
Peter Stanton @ #1607 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 7:25 am
I know all my first cousins. I wouldn’t have a clue who my second cousins are.
Late start again this morning. 😉
This may be worth a quick read for anyone with an active gmail account.
https://www.zdnet.com/article/scammer-groups-are-exploiting-gmail-dot-accounts-for-online-fraud/
I wasn’t aware of it before but it seems google has three “helpful” features for legitimate email accounts that allow you to create aliases to make your address easier for others to remember.
(1) You can insert “dots” (full stops) anywhere between the characters preceding the @ symbol.
(2) You can attach any number of random characters after your account name by adding the “plus” symbol and then the random characters.
(3) You can change the “gmail” part to “googlemail”.
I don’t know if these features can be used in combination.
For instance, if personalaccount@gmail.com is a valid address then any of the following are aliases that work.
(1) personal.account@gmail.com, per.son.al.account@gmail.com
(2) personalaccount+whatever@gmail.com
(3) personalaccount@googlemail.com.
Mail sent to any of these will be delivered to personalaccount@gmail.com. You can be scammed when someone else uses an alias for your gmail address to sign themselves up to online services, such as PollBludger, netflix, government services, etc.
Good Morning.
On climate change.
Look at what the science has been telling us this week
Australia’s contribution under Labor will most probably be the Thatcher response to coal. We are running out of time because of Abbott undoing the excellent Gillard policies.
So like the deadline for Brexit we may have to suffer the consequences of our delay.
If you ignore what the science is telling us by saying mealy mouthed phrases by we have to bring the community with us you have missed the point and are as deluded as the Brexiteers.
That’s how urgent it is becoming. I have no doubt Labor will do its best to make a transition hurt workers the least. Just be aware the Greens policy position has NEVER been the extreme claimed by many. Its fact based and ahead of the majors because they listened to the science.
Adani matters because it shows if Labor is choosing the science or like the LNP putting politics above the science.
If Labor does the latter then its doing it foolishly too. You have the candidate running against Abbott calling for banning Adani. So yes even Liberal voting areas do not see banning Adani outright as extreme.
The biggest political problem Labor has to wrestle with is we have to stop exporting coal. Instead we have to export renewables.
None of this crap argument of if we stop exports others will just take it up.
It is up to the whole of humanity to stop coal being used as a fuel including exporting it to others to burn.
This is the situation Labor will face in government and its about time thinking is adjusted. The same old way of doing politics is over.
As the Pentagon has warned climate change is a national security issue.
Note this applies to my view of what is going to happen after the election. It’s going to be a big shock as Labor reverses the suppression of facts and restores science and works hard to eliminate corruption
The politics after two months of Labor is going to be very different to the politics of today. Transparency and fact telling will be that revolutionary.
And while I have some doubts about how far Labor will go on the corruption fighting policies due to wanting to keep Dutton’s Home Office model I have no doubts that they are going down this road.
The science and the honesty will bring about this change a lot faster than people now think.
Private schools win again. It’s all in definitions and details.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/07/special-deals-swindling-public-schools-out-of-billions-new-analysis-says
DG
If one was ‘filthy rich’ or a big wheel somewhere I reckon the ‘family grapevine’ would soon discover and spread the word.