BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor

Following Newspoll, the latest poll aggregate reading washes away the Coalition’s gains from the earlier polling since New Year.

This week’s Newspoll result had added 0.3% to Labor’s two-party reading on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, and added one seat to their national on the seat projection, the gain being in South Australia. The biggest change on the primary vote is an improvement for One Nation, who reversed a weakening trend over the past few months with the latest poll. Newspoll also recorded a weakening in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, but evidently the aggregate had this priced in already, as the trend results show little changed on last week. As always, full results on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,222 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor”

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  1. “Sheriff Scott Israel said Officer Scott Peterson failed by waiting outside the Marjory Stoneman Douglas HS building for about 4 of 6 minutes while Nikolas Cruz killed 17 people.”
    He had no backup and would have gone to almost certain death.
    It took the SWAT team three hours to go at Columbine. Everyone was dead by then.

  2. Lizzie

    With a new leader its my understanding a new one is negotiated.

    With South Australia destroying the LNP with its renewables policy there could be change. This is a loss for the climate deniers who were trying to hold on with Joyce. Big blow to Canavan

  3. Blanket Criticism….I doubt that Turnbull is going to suggest that Australian super be used to buy US Treasuries. But he may suggest that Australian funds could buy ports, airports, bridges, tunnels and freeways….then collect the revenue. The question is why the US would need Australian cash….and then, since Australia is a capital importer, why we wouldn’t use those funds in this economy?

  4. BK:

    Insight into American thinking:

    OutFrontCNNVerified account@OutFrontCNN
    30m30 minutes ago
    Father of teen slain in Florida school massacre responds to report that the school resource officer stayed outside during shooting: We need more than one officer and it shouldn’t be somebody who has gone through their best police years — it should be the “badass police officers”

  5. “Steve777 says:
    Friday, February 23, 2018 at 12:40 pm
    And what’s that thing stuck on the side of Mirabella’s head?”

    It’s a fascinator, something I learned when my daughter bought one.

  6. “With a new leader its my understanding a new one is negotiated.”

    It will be a very quick negotiation. New Nationals leader with a piece of paper: “Sign this”. Malcolm: “OK”, signs.

  7. Who is up for a “Turnbull Reset” drinking game?

    First up, Fran Kelly? Or will Fairfax front page it?

    A skol for a radio presenter mention. A shotgun for a front page. Talking heads are just large sips.

  8. I have been informed by a labor insider that if Barnaby stays or goes as the Nats leader, labor will put the blow torch on matters other than the money/ job matter for his girl friend in the next sitting week.

    Joyce was always a sideshow for the ALP. Trumble is the target. Confirm that Trumble knew and did nothing, or even better was complicit they’ll have him.

  9. a r:

    It isn’t quite accurate:

    Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has two pitches readied for President Donald Trump when he visits the White House Friday: Offering to invest Australian pension money in U.S. infrastructure, and attempting to convince the US to rejoin the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

    The first world leader to be received at the White House in Trump’s second year, Turnbull will propose using a portion of funds in Australia’s nearly $2 trillion pension fund to invest in U.S. infrastructure.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/22/australian-prime-minister-turnbull-trade-infrastructure-pitch-for-trump.html

  10. And what’s scary about Turnbull’s pitch is that it appears to have been Sloppy Joe Hockeynomics’ idea!

    “A lot of counties, cities, and states have a massive amount of capital tied up in assets that are paying no tax, making profits that shareholders never see and basically, in many cases, could be used more efficiently,” Joe Hockey, ambassador of Australia to the United States, told reporters, citing the success of a similar program in Australia.

    “They could be ports, they could be railways, airports, they could be even blocks of unused land bought for redevelopment.”

  11. Why cant we invest the money here. We are crying out of massive infrastructure projects in every major city with no funding available.

    The US infrastructure plan is just full of shitty PPS and private roads.

  12. Confessions

    More illustration of the mentality. Life is like in the movies you see.

    Broward County sheriff, Scott Israel,………… When asked what Peterson should have done, Israel said the deputy should have “went in, addressed the killer, killed the killer”………………
    Wayne LaPierre, …..“To stop a bad guy with a gun, it takes a good guy with a gun”…………………….. It should not be easier for a madman to shoot up a school than a bank or jewellery store or some Hollywood gala.

    “Schools should be the hardest target in this country

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/feb/22/stoneman-douglas-shooting-armed-guard-did-not-go-in

  13. Confirm that Trumble knew and did nothing, or even better was complicit they’ll have him.

    He is a lawyer. The best they can hope for is he deliberately avoided knowing to the point it constituted a clear case of covert condonance.

  14. Ides

    Investing the money in the US would be throwing money away. e.g. Australia paying for a Wall.

    Even those arguing a fast train would be uneconomic could see the funds better used on that and other public transport projects.

    That money could go to the infrastructure that Infrastructure Australia showed we need today.

    Along with hospitals Schools and Closing the Gap.

    Oops Almost forgot to say nothing about Fibre to every premise in Australia. With that money Wireless and satellites would be a very small percentage.

  15. I haven’t had a chance to catch up on the $2 trillion American infrastructure deal, it doesn’t feature in any news I’ve seen or heard today. Maybe it’s been Barnabeyed off the front pages. However, I expect that it means that Australian super funds will be allowed to invest in US infrastructure projects, although I would have thought that they could already do that if they wanted to. Maybe some sort of concessional deal is being negotiated to make such investments more attractive.

    Be that as it may, any such investment would have to be considered by super fund trustees, who are legally bound to do the right thing by their members, on its merits.

  16. guytaur….Super funds are not public monies. They’re private capital. We do not want those funds holding public infrastructure in this economy. We want to mobilise the State in this sector.

  17. How can Truffles offer Trump Aus superannuation money ? It’s not his to offer and the government would control sfa% .But then Truffles didn’t say how big the “portion” would be. An empty pointless promise from an empty pointless PM.

  18. There is the Future Fund which has only $169 billion. I guess the Gov can allocate some of that to US infrastructure but the decision must be investment driven, not political. And I cannot see how MT can mandate any such investment for retail or industry super funds.

  19. Don’t get too excited about this Sunday’s Insiders with PvO. The guest is Matthias Cormann who will spend a lot of time saying nothing.

  20. briefly

    I am only referring to funds in government control.

    As others have pointed out Super Funds have laws they have to abide by to protect members money.
    Thus lack of investment in Australian public infrastructure.

  21. Trying to take out a loony spraying around an ArmaLite with a handgun is the equivalent of bring a knife to a gunfight.

    You might get lucky if you can get up close without being noticed, but far more likely you are going to get wasted before you ever get close enough to have a reasonable shot. It’s not a fucking movie. You don’t just pop headshots on moving targets firing back from greater range and with significantly greater accuracy.

    The stupid really burns even from half a world away. I’ve been at the ‘right’ end of both 5.56 rifles and 9mm pistols. I’d be fucked if I’d want to be at the ‘wrong’ end of either, but if you absolutely had to have a choice it’s no choice at all. Even at 20m or so you’d have a very good chance of a shooter missing you with a 9mm even from a set position. If you were firing back at them you’d be unlucky to be hit. Anything under 200m against a reasonably competent shot with a rifle is a really really really bad place to be.

    That Deputy made the exactly right choice. He would have made less difference to the outcome than students pleading with the shooter for their lives. He would be dead for no benefit to anyone.

  22. poroti:

    What’s interesting is the number of stories coming out after the town hall showing Israel not in a favourable light.

    WPLG Local 10 NewsVerified account@WPLGLocal10
    2h2 hours ago
    Coral Springs police officers — and not Broward Sheriff’s Office deputies — were the first ones to try to help save students at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School http://bit.ly/2olmuPb?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=snd&utm_content=wplg10

  23. Trumble is visiting with some fund managers in his entourage. The trip is to lobby the US and state governments to find more opportunities where they can invest.

  24. The NRA is arguing Americans should take up arms against each other. Incredible.

    Why would you think it incredible. It’s what they are paid by the weapons industry to do.

    If everyone has a pistol then selling assault rifles (for self defence of course) is easy.

    If everyone has an assault rifle then selling fully automatics is easy.

    In mayhem and death profit.

  25. BK

    If you ever need the day’s government talking points played on an endless loop Mathias is ya go to man. On the other hand having had a taste of the big chair we may see Mathias “unleashed” 🙂

  26. This is what sh!ts me about the ABC.

    This morning during the fishing report on local ABC radio, the fishing expert finished his bit by acknowledging the election coming up and wondered if all of the parties could get together and devise a strategy to make all sectors of fishing carbon neutral. From bait, to boats to reels.

    I was impressed.

    The presenter, a well known politics hack, just ummed and arhhhed and wouldnt touch it. Carbon emissions seems to be something this presenter is happy to pursue if attacking perceived Weatherill policy failures – but when a generic non-political discussion on reducing carbon emissions comes up its not a topic to be pursued and certainly not an idea to be seen to be agreeing with.

    The well known presenter is either sh!tscared or just a plain sh!thead.

  27. If you don’t take her seriously, ESJ is quite funny at times.

    If ESJ chose to spend less time trolling and more time engaging then it would be a far better place.

  28. Guytaur, super funds are excluded from investing in infrastructure because deals that would advantage the funds would compromise the public .

    There are plenty of examples where private ownership leads to gouging of the public. Airports and tollways, ports, power plants and bridges are the obvious examples.

  29. ratsak @ #264 Friday, February 23rd, 2018 – 11:49 am

    I have been informed by a labor insider that if Barnaby stays or goes as the Nats leader, labor will put the blow torch on matters other than the money/ job matter for his girl friend in the next sitting week.

    Joyce was always a sideshow for the ALP. Trumble is the target. Confirm that Trumble knew and did nothing, or even better was complicit they’ll have him.

    I really think Labor should keep right out of it. Too easy to backfire. The LNP are busy shooting each other in the foot so stay clear.

  30. Voice Endeavour

    My (very optimistic prediction).

    Resigning as leader of the Nats? Yes.
    Resigning from the Nats? Yes
    Resigning from HoR? No.

    I agree! He will still draw a wage (Sadly!) and continue being of some use to Gina……..

  31. ratsak

    As my son pointed out, these shooters are often ex students, rather than random strangers. Shooting someone you know must be even more difficult.

    Meanwhile, in Australia, the highest form of school security I’ve encountered is being politely asked to report to reception.

  32. The best they can hope for is he deliberately avoided knowing to the point it constituted a clear case of covert condonance.

    Sure that will be Trumble’s tactic.

    But plausible deniability requires at least a level of plausibility.

    And you are assuming Barnyard doesn’t dump a bucket on him. An angry and bitter Barney isn’t exactly the sort of guy I’d want to rely on keeping schtum about any complicity in the events that have got him so deep in the shit.

    Joyce will know that his Nat enemies and especially the Libs have been leaking against him. Just going quietly into the sunset without firing a bazooka back at them doesn’t strike me as a very Joycian thing to do.

  33. Truffles and investment. I’ll keep in mind Matt Tabibi’s description of Truffles’ previous employer , Goldman Sachs. Oh and a big shout out to FAI and HIH

    “Goldman Sachs……a great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money.”

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