BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor

Following Newspoll, the latest poll aggregate reading washes away the Coalition’s gains from the earlier polling since New Year.

This week’s Newspoll result had added 0.3% to Labor’s two-party reading on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, and added one seat to their national on the seat projection, the gain being in South Australia. The biggest change on the primary vote is an improvement for One Nation, who reversed a weakening trend over the past few months with the latest poll. Newspoll also recorded a weakening in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, but evidently the aggregate had this priced in already, as the trend results show little changed on last week. As always, full results on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,222 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor”

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  1. The rate of gun ownership in the US is falling but the number of weapons owned is rising. The intensity of ownership is very high among those who already hold weapons. This suggests the market is very saturated….that demand may actually be about to decline. If gun owners start to contract their holdings and non-owners refuse to become buyers, weapon production will fall. The NRA are attempting to prevent this by urging Americans to arm themselves against each other. Murder is their ancillary product.

  2. briefly

    We are not really disagreeing.

    Either way Turnbull is a fool. The question is will the Yanks be fool enough to fall for it.

    Unless of course infrastructure includes power plants then the Superfunds could make a killing on renewable projects in the US.

  4. I have been in retail super funds and now have SMSF. Neither prohibit investment in Australian or overseas infrastructure. I recall there were dedicated infrastructure funds, and I understood industry funds in particular had high allocation to infrastructure.

  6. Ratsak

    But plausible deniability requires at least a level of plausibility.

    Yeah yeah. You chose to argue on the substance rather than be impressed with the titillation alliteration.

  7. dtt

    Someone rang up Jon Faine’s program on ABC radio this morning and ranted about Labor using Barnaby’s private life against him.

    Faine said that, on the contrary, he had tried to get several Labor MPs to criticise Barnaby’s private life and they had refused to go there.

    It would appear Labor is being very tightly disciplined in their approach.

  9. “So who told the media? Couldn’t Barnaby keep stumm for another few hours?”

    Maybe someone from Cash’s office. 🙂

    On the super investment in the US stuff. WTF is Truffles on about? I’m sure that our super funds would invest in US infrastructure….if the trustees consider it a worthwhile investment in terms of their rules and in the interests of members. But maybe we should be considering encouraging them to invest in Australian infrastructure instead?? I dont think the super funds are going to be told by truffles. Maybe consider taking advantage of any special deal truffles can make but dont think thats likely. Sounds like a brain fart “announcable” by the Rainmaker that will soon disperse and be forgotten.

    And on the US school shooting.

    Known data point on this is that an armed ( i would suppose trained) law enforcement officer on his own would not tackle the gunman.

    But Trump and the NRA, they expect a teacher to do any better?? FFS, just batshit insanity.

  11. The Joyce story is a nuisance for Labor. It prints them getting their own messages out and it affirms the common view that punters have about politicians – that they are self serving, two faced and untrustworthy. Joyce is a blight on all politicians.

  12. As my son pointed out, these shooters are often ex students, rather than random strangers. Shooting someone you know must be even more difficult.

    Absolutely. But also the simple humanity has a much greater chance of kicking in when there is a clear and obvious difference in power. Far, far, far, from a guarantee of course, but someone coming at you with a gun is obviously a threat, much easier psychologically to kill them. A child cowering in fear and begging for their life is no threat at all to someone packing military grade weaponry. That is another level of psychological barrier to overcome to kill them.

    I think it was BB that related a story from the Nairobi shopping mall terrorist attacks where a young child facing down the barrel of one of the murderers simply said ‘you are a bad man’. It was enough to trigger something in the bastard and he actually let him and his family escape.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/24/kenyan-mall-gunman-bad-man-boy-four

    It’s a very slim chance that something like that could have reduced the death toll in Florida or anywhere else, but that slim chance would have been enormously greater than the chance some poor shit scared guy with a handgun would have made any difference other than increase the death toll by one – his own.

  13. “I understand @Barnaby_Joyce’s Chief of Staff has called a meeting of Mr Joyce’s Canberra office for 1:30pm”
    I think we all know what that means. Time to start ringing around for a new job.

  14. guytaur @ #215 Friday, February 23rd, 2018 – 12:17 pm

    Unless of course infrastructure includes power plants then the Superfunds could make a killing on renewable projects in the US.

    The only problem with that is they could do exactly the same thing in Australia and the outcome would be better for Australia.

    Possible secondary problem is that Trump hates renewables anyways.

  17. If anyone suggests that people should ‘lay off’ Barnaby once he moves to the backbench, simply remind them of how that well that worked for Dasher. Barnaby is now facing a litany of ethical, professional and potentially legal issues, whereas Dasher’s crimes consisted of a $1700 legal donation (disclosed voluntarily despite being below the reporting threshold) and being caught contradicting Labor’s policy position on China.

  18. Briefly

    Id prefer the Aus govt issued bonds to the superfunds to use their money to build infrastructure that remain in public hands. Thus get money to projects and a return to the funds. That or the govt never sells more than 40% of the infrastructure’s shares. (Ie 60% owned by the public).

  21. Darc Friday, February 23rd, 2018 – 9:20 am Comment #68

    What was Ms McGregor’s job in the military before she became a Fairfax columnist? Strategic thinking?

    A PR flack, including speech writing to the specification of those in power above her.

  22. Barnaby to resign as DPM and as a member of the Nationals and move a motion of no confidence in the PM.

    You know you want it to happen.

    Please God, let this fantasy come true…

    Tom.

  23. Labor won’t go near Joyce other than to tie in others. Especially Trumble. Trumble et al will try and turn it into ‘private stuff’ and ‘Joyce is gone so nothingburger’. Unfortunately for him Trumble is the one who has commented on Joyce’s private stuff, not Labor, and having opened that door he has to be absolutely able to prevent any evidence that he knew what Joyce was up to earlier than he has claimed. If Labor gets a leak that proves Trumble or his office facilitated any of Campion’s moves or covered up Joyce’s mischief (especially anything relating to improper use of money) then stick a fork in him.

    Sure it prevents Labor talking about their policies for a bit. But the chance to fatally wound Trumble is a chance too good to refuse. Even in his thoroughly diminished state Trumble is the only thing that even moderately represents a positive for the Government. Knocking him off simply opens far more room for Labor to move policy wise. Shorten has already been courageous with his policy positions, but if he was facing a voter repellent like Dutton or ScoMo he would almost certainly expand that envelope to create a rock solid ‘mandate’ for all the things Labor wants to achieve in government.

    In the short term the voters are simply not going to drop the cynicism. RGR will long be lead in the ALP’s saddle bags. But that will actually be a bit of a long term bonus for Shorten. Win the next election having clearly laid out a comprehensive policy agenda, implement same with reasonable competence, let the Coalition eat itself whilst Labor remains united and disciplined, hope for at least no major economic setbacks. Three years of that will seem like the glory days to a big enough proportion of the population to set Labor up for several terms.

    Shorten will never have the popular appeal of a Hawke or Rudd at their peak. He doesn’t need it though. He can however reach Howard levels of respect even from people who hate him by putting an end to the lunacy of the last decade. I think he’s set up a perfect base to do that, and has the talents to build off of that foundation.

    Destroying Trumble and forcing the Libs to replace another PM before they’ve served a full term can only help set that foundation in concrete.

  25. Time to start ringing around for a new job.

    Promotions for everyone with Canavan.

    Just tell him you and Barney had a ‘thing’.

  28. Andrew Elder’s take. Popcorn futures soar.

    Bit Harsh m8 @awelder
    1h
    Joyce will control the Nats from the back bench, dishing out Gina’s money and playing silly buggers with Abbott

  29. “Destroying Trumble and forcing the Libs to replace another PM before they’ve served a full term can only help set that foundation in concrete.”

    What i find amazing is that Abbott, and some others out there, seem to actually think he would be a viable replacement for Truffles and can make a comeback. World is not a sane place at the moment.

  30. briefly

    The Joyce story is a nuisance for Labor. It prints them getting their own messages out and it affirms the common view that punters have about politicians – that they are self serving, two faced and untrustworthy. Joyce is a blight on all politicians.

    That’s my view too.

  32. Apologies Muddy Waters!!

    Barny, please don’t go
    Barny, please don’t go
    Barny, please don’t go
    Down to Armadale, you know I love you so

    Before I be your dog
    Before I be your dog
    Before I be your dog
    I get you way’d out here, and let you walk alone

    Turn your lamp down low
    Turn your lamp down low
    Turn your lamp down low
    I beg you all night long, baby, please don’t go

    You know your man down gone
    You know your man down gone
    You know your man down gone
    Down the country farm, with all the shackles on

  36. rickhirschVerified account@rickhirsch
    21m21 minutes ago
    Who failed to follow up tips on Nikolas Cruz? Broward Sheriff’s Office, repeatedly. FBI? Yes and Yes. #ParklandShooting

    At the town hall the NRA lady practically taunted the Sheriff with unreported facts about the number of times Cruz came to the attention of law enforcement. She was dismissed by Israel.

    And today there are all these new accounts of both what went down, and the history coming out.

  38. On Barnaby, doesnt this open up a reshuffle of portfolios in the Nats? (And by extension the Coalition?)

    Yep. You’d expect a pretty significant change in Nat ministers. Joyce’s bastardry last reshuffle is very very likely to be completely reversed and possibly a bit of pay back. Joyce, Littleproud and Drum are all likely to be gone. Canavan would be a big chance of a demotion.

    Trumble won’t want to change the Libs but who knows.

  39. Pegasus
    “That’s my view too.”

    It’s not my view. Whenever there is chaos in the federal parliament, it’s the government that wears it.

    Abbott knew this and exploited this to the max as OL.

    This Joyce thing is hurting the government, and Turnbull and his ministers know it.

  40. BK @ #279 Friday, February 23rd, 2018 – 10:02 am

    Don’t get too excited about this Sunday’s Insiders with PvO. The guest is Matthias Cormann who will spend a lot of time saying nothing.

    A productive interview with Cormann.

    bc: Matthias Cormann, thank you for joining us this morning.

    mc: A pleasure Barrie.

    bc: Thank you for your time. Next we talk to the panel but first …

    🙂

  41. The Libs have floated the idea of forcing a proportion of new Super funds to invest in infrastructure before.

    They would enforce it by tying the requirement to the ability to claim a tax deduction for Super contributions.

    They are trying to build a quasi-public gravy train.

    Arseclowns, but you all knew that already!

  46. What i find amazing is that Abbott, and some others out there, seem to actually think he would be a viable replacement for Truffles and can make a comeback. World is not a sane place at the moment.

    Arseholes all the way down.

    Imbeciles all the way down.

    Abbott actually looks good against quite a few of his colleagues. I have always contended that that includes his replacement.

    That is not a complement to Tony.

  48. @ Lib U – if only there was some way to take a percentage of people’s income and use it for vital infrastructure, that didn’t involve putting requirements on their super 😉

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