BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor

Following Newspoll, the latest poll aggregate reading washes away the Coalition’s gains from the earlier polling since New Year.

This week’s Newspoll result had added 0.3% to Labor’s two-party reading on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, and added one seat to their national on the seat projection, the gain being in South Australia. The biggest change on the primary vote is an improvement for One Nation, who reversed a weakening trend over the past few months with the latest poll. Newspoll also recorded a weakening in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, but evidently the aggregate had this priced in already, as the trend results show little changed on last week. As always, full results on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,221 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor”

  1. Today’s front page of the Daily ToiletPaper reminds me of the ‘Bonking Tories’ headlines of the UK tabloids. Gladys and Malcolm will have a nice ice breaker with the lewd US President.

  2. It looks like Peta Credlin, in concert with The Australian, and even after Tony Abbott’s Royal Commission witch hunt, is trying to gin up 20 year old accusations against the leader of the federal Labor Party:

    Sky News Australia

    Verified account

    @SkyNewsAust
    11h11 hours ago
    .@AndrewBurrell7: Former WA major fraud squad officer David ­McAlpine claims his investigation into the AWU slush fund 20 years ago was ‘subverted’ due to ‘political interference’.

    #Credlin

    https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/966580019383304192

    They’re bringing up Julia Gillard and her boyfriend in the AWU again ffs!

  3. [ @Thefinnigans · 9m9 minutes ago

    Malcolm Turnbull will propose using a chunk of Aust’s $2.53 trillion superannuation pool to help unlock funding for Trump’s infrastructure

    ]

    Insane. He’s trying to buy America like he bought his election. This time with our money.

  4. On a more sober note, David Gillespie Nationals Member for Lyne has done 2 things in recent days.

    1. He has sold his interest in a shopping centre hosting, among other things an Australia Post office. This alleged breach of S44 provisions for ‘no contracts with the Commonwealth’ is working its way through the HC, but he now is clear of ‘this mischief’ if found inelligible.

    2. Gillespie has put his hand up for a leadership position in the Nationals.

  5. Credlin is a zealot. Dragging up stuff that she threw around about Julia Gillard and her boyfriend in the AWU when Tony Abbott was Opposition Leader and then PM, and which she and he orchestrated a Royal Commission to investigate! Which proved that there was nothing in the allegations! Now, though, because some retired WA cop, who is probably a member of the Liberal Party, is making allegations that he was hindered in his investigations, with no proof, we are supposed to rake over these old coals again!?!

    I think this just shows how desperate the Coalition and their shills are getting to stop Labor’s momentum.

  6. Aaaah, repost from previous thread

    I dunno . . .

    I’m not too impressed with a media campaign to drive someone out of office because . . . well, just because it can.

    And worse, has stated, that this vendetta will continue until the person goes.

    WTF does the Daily Telegraph think it is?? Who said it was the arbiter of which elected representative gets to stay or not.

    If Barnaby Joyce, or anyone else, has rorted the system, then by all means expose it. Properly. With facts. But not this dribbling daily drip shite.

    And, anyway, where was the furore about the absence of fruit in bowl? A tea-towel doesn’t cut it.

  7. lizzie @ #3 Friday, February 23rd, 2018 – 6:52 am

    [ @Thefinnigans · 9m9 minutes ago

    Malcolm Turnbull will propose using a chunk of Aust’s $2.53 trillion superannuation pool to help unlock funding for Trump’s infrastructure

    ]

    Insane. He’s trying to buy America like he bought his election. This time with our money.

    Election now! (Or after August, anyway. 🙂 )

    Doesn’t Turnbull realise that Trump and his cronies will just pocket the money after doing a substandard job and ripping off the sub-contractors? Hmm. Maybe he does.

  8. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Catherine McGregor says that Turnbull is mired in a Barnaby crisis of his own making – and Abbott knows it. She writes that Turnbull’s political instincts are hopeless and that the right wing does not deserve the label of “conservative”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/turnbull-is-mired-in-a-barnaby-crisis-of-his-own-making-and-abbott-knows-it-20180222-p4z1ap.html
    In a similar vein Richo says that Turnbull has few close personal friends with political savvy — so, apart from Lucy and some of his staff, he trusts his own often flawed judgment. His lack of forethought and his desperate obsession to come out as a hero have led him to two disasters within a week. Google.
    /opinion/columnists/graham-richardson/turnbull-could-do-with-a-few-politically-savvy-mates/news-story/c713f54d4d667a5572a9313accdc6a31
    Barnaby Joyce – the very model of a major modern scandal.
    https://newmatilda.com/2018/02/22/barnaby-joyce-model-modern-major-scandal/
    Michelle Grattan writes “The Nationals have been paralysed by the extraordinary and unpredictable Joyce situation”.
    https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-the-nationals-have-been-paralysed-by-the-extraordinary-and-unpredictable-joyce-situation-92311
    Katharine Murphy says that as Abbott rages and Joyce rails, we are all diminished.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/feb/22/as-abbott-rages-and-joyce-rails-we-are-all-diminished
    Mark Kenny tells us that Joyce has vowed to stare down a party room revolt on Monday after one of his own MPs declared the Deputy Prime Minister was “not fit” for the job and demanded his resignation. Is the end game now in play?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/barnaby-joyce-crisis-to-come-to-a-head-after-nationals-mp-calls-for-deputy-prime-minister-s-resignation-20180221-p4z186.html
    Turnbull has refused to endorse Barnaby Joyce as his Deputy Prime Minister ahead of a crisis meeting on the Nationals leadership within days, taking a neutral stance amid fears the turmoil will wreck the government.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/turnbull-refuses-to-endorse-joyce-ahead-of-leadership-crisis-meeting-20180222-p4z1cx.html
    Embattled Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce will likely face a leadership challenge next week, as The New Daily reveals his fate rests on roughly four undecided Nationals – who might be swayed by fresh allegations of misconduct.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/02/22/barnaby-joyce-leadership-challenge/
    Greg Jericho explains how The IMF doesn’t share the government’s heroic growth prediction. Lots of interactive charts to toy with.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2018/feb/22/the-imf-doesnt-share-the-governments-heroic-growth-prediction
    Oh dear! NSW Fair Trading Minister Matt Kean has been caught out by his girlfriend — who works for Malcolm Turnbull — sending explicit text messages asking a fellow state Liberal MP for sex. Google.
    /national-affairs/state-politics/nsw-minister-matt-kean-caught-by-partner-sexting-mp-eleni-petinos/news-story/00380d25a76a6b357d23eb811b2f7580
    Infrastructure Australia has released landmark report proposing three alternative visions of Sydney in 2046, when the population is projected to hit 7.4 million.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/three-visions-for-sydney-s-density-as-2-4-million-more-people-call-it-home-20180222-p4z1c5.html
    Jennifer Hewett on a new breakout in the energy wars. Google.
    /opinion/columnists/south-australia-is-the-great-global-experiment-in-renewable-energy-20180222-h0whmt
    The big Tesla battery in South Australia is consistently working to serve the peak energy demand each day, taking the “straw off the camel’s back,” according to the Australia Institute’s latest national energy emissions audit.
    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/feb/23/tesla-battery-taking-straw-off-camels-back-for-sa-energy-demand
    Little reported in Australian media, the NAB has come in for serious criticism in the British Parliament as a bank that engages in unethical practices.
    https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/the-parlous-history-of-the-nabs-clydesdale-bank-part-1-long-under-the-radar,11228
    Labor is demanding full answers on yet another Centrelink cock up.
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/feb/22/aged-care-fees-labor-demands-full-extent-of-overcharging-be-revealed
    This professor writes that the argument that cutting the Australian company tax rate will lead to higher investment and wages, more employment and faster GDP growth does not have solid empirical or theoretical backing.
    https://theconversation.com/there-isnt-solid-research-or-theory-to-support-cutting-corporate-taxes-to-boost-wages-92031
    Jenna Price has a spit over the position of women in political leadership.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/all-this-talk-of-leadership-changes-and-barely-a-whisper-about-women-20180222-p4z1c0.html
    Barnaby Joyce’s much-hyped inland rail project displaces more productive repairs and upgrades to existing infrastructure and would be better spent on skills investments in rural communities, says a prominent economist who advises governments on freight priorities. Google.
    /economy/barnaby-joyces-inland-rail-splurge-better-spent-elsewhere-20180222-h0wia1
    Dave Donovan writes that for the second week in a row, ABC Media Watch has misled the Australian public — this time whitewashing Turnbull Government interference in the editorial policies of the public broadcaster.
    https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/editorial-excerpt-abc-rolls-over-and-media-watch-and-does-the-vampire-squid,11226
    Stephen Koukoulas looks at the prospect of Morrison’s tax cuts threatening our AAA rating.
    https://thekouk.com/item/584-could-tax-cuts-threaten-our-aaa-credit-rating.html
    Qantas is enjoying record profits – almost $1 billion for the past six months – but a new report argues they are coming at a cost to the quality of its aeroplanes. The report, by credit ratings agency S&P Global, found much of Qantas’ spectacular recovery in recent years could be put down to management’s decision not to invest extra capital in updating its ageing fleet of aircraft.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2018/02/22/cheap-trick-behind-qantas-profit/
    Some rather rancid factional quarrelling in Victorian Labor.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/f-that-marles-the-bitter-text-threats-behind-alleged-alp-brawl-20180222-p4z1a1.html
    The Republican and the NRA had a hard time at the town hall meeting.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/it-is-a-weapon-of-war-father-of-florida-shooting-takes-on-marco-rubio-nra-over-gun-control-20180222-h0wih4.html
    The head of the NRA has responded to the latest mass shooting by saying “The media loves mass shootings”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/the-media-love-mass-shootings-nra-responds-after-florida-shooting-20180222-p4z1ct.html
    The head of the powerful National Rifle Association (NRA) has broken his silence more than a week after the Florida school shooting with a vituperative attack on gun control advocates, accusing them of exploiting the tragedy to push their agenda. What a disgusting creature Wayne LaPierre is!
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/feb/22/nra-wayne-lapierre-gun-control-cpac-speech-2018
    Trump’s “I hear you” cheat sheet.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/i-hear-you-donald-trump-listening-session-cheat-sheet-visible-20180222-p4z19g.html
    Yes Donald, arming school teachers will make it all go away!
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/donald-trump-suggests-arming-teachers-to-prevent-school-massacres-20180221-p4z17v.html
    The American right is officially terrified of the students of Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School. This is a very interesting article.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/why-america-s-right-is-attacking-survivors-of-the-florida-massacre-20180221-p4z18z.html
    Abbott has written in The Australian “One thing I am not going to cop is gratuitous criticism from ministers who are only in government because I led them there.” Google.
    /opinion/cheap-shots-become-own-goals-when-ministers-make-up-facts/news-story/4a174d8f41fd383162b3ba5bd17a8917
    Richard Di Natale has written an op-ed calling for a full inquiry into Australia’s involvement in Iraq.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/why-we-need-a-full-inquiry-into-australia-s-involvement-in-iraq-20180222-p4z1a8.html
    Fergus Hunter writes on how senior ministers are lining up to criticise Abbott over his immigration comments.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/ministers-line-up-to-criticise-abbott-s-absurd-immigration-comments-20180221-p4z184.html
    Netanyahu’s legal woes have deepened after one of his closest confidants agreed to testify against him in a growing corruption scandal, complicating the Israeli leader’s efforts to hold on to his job.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/ex-top-aide-agrees-to-testify-in-netanyahu-corruption-scandal-20180222-p4z19k.html
    Close friends of Mahmoud “Mick” Hawi missed the burial of the slain former bikie boss after they claimed they were “harassed” by police on the way to the cemetery.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/friends-of-slain-bikie-boss-miss-burial-after-police-search-20180222-p4z1c4.html
    A Russian-designed anti-anxiety drug, easily bought online, was still considered the main culprit as police awaited toxicology results following a mass overdose at a prestigious private Gold Coast school.
    https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/russian-designer-drug-suspected-in-mass-school-drug-overdose-20180222-p4z197.html
    David Jones’ profit has fallen by a third after being hit by the same sluggish trading conditions as arch rival Myer, blaming consumers who are suffering from low wage growth, underemployment and high levels of household debt. There’s a message here.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/david-jones-falls-victim-to-consumer-slump-20180222-p4z1bs.html

    Cartoon Corner

    This effort of David Rowe’s is scary.

    Andrew Dyson and some Canberra dynamics.

    A telling contribution from Cathy Wilcox.

    Mark David has a good swipe at the ABC “balance” issue.


    David Pope on Turnbull’s US visit.

    What n absolute ripper from Peter Broelman!

    And Broelman eavesdrops on the Turnbull/Trump meeting.

    Paul Zanetti with Turnbull giving some advice to Trump.

    Here’s a trio from Matt Golding.



    Mark Knight reckons this could destroy Mesma’s Instagram career!

    Sean Leahy with an unfortunate development for Barnaby.

    Alan Moir and Turnbull’s prospects.

    Jon Kudelka at an ominous Nats party room meeting.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/542da92602fbe3ea69d45290297c2c93

  9. Stuart Tomlinson

    @virgotweet
    48s49 seconds ago
    More
    Replying to @myknittingwool
    Shouldn’t We Be Fixing Our Own Roads First – Our Country’s Problems First Mr Turnbull Instead Of Giving $1.99 Trillion Of Our Money Away To Help Fund Trump’s Infrastructure Push? The Money Mr Turnbull Is Not Yours To Give Away

  10. Trump on verge of firing national security adviser after he admitted Russia’s role in US election

    President Donald Trump could fire his national security adviser, Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, after he said that evidence of Russia’s interference in the 2016 U.S. election was “incontrovertible.”

    Sources close to the White House told CNN that Pentagon officials were “quietly” trying to find a job for McMaster in the Pentagon.

    “Several sources told CNN that the push for a replacement comes after months of personal tension between McMaster and Trump,” the report said

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/02/trump-verge-firing-national-security-adviser-admitted-russias-role-us-election-report/

  11. US judge denies Paul Manafort’s request to modify his bail terms

    President Donald Trump’s former campaign manager, Paul Manafort, lost a bid on Thursday to modify the terms of his bail, after a federal judge said his proposal to pledge certain properties as collateral was “unsatisfactory.”

    Manafort and Trump’s former deputy campaign manager, Rick Gates, were indicted in October as part of Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s probe into whether the Trump campaign colluded with Russia in Moscow’s alleged meddling in the 2016 presidential election.

    They face charges including conspiracy to launder money, conspiracy to defraud the United States and failure to register as foreign agents for political work they did representing a pro-Russia Ukrainian party.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/02/us-judge-denies-paul-manaforts-request-modify-bail-terms/

  12. Trump Suggests Giving Bonuses to Trained and Armed Teachers

    President Trump again promoted arming specially trained teachers, saying some could get bonuses, but rejected active-shooter drills to prepare for a rampage.

    “I want certain highly adept people, people who understand weaponry, guns” to have a permit to carry concealed firearms in schools, Mr. Trump said during his second White House meeting in two days to discuss how to respond to the shooting that killed 17 people at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/22/us/politics/trump-guns-school-shootings.html

  13. From Mike Carlton.
    “Here’s a challenge for you before bedtime. Be honest, try hard. Name one redeeming talent, achievement, accomplishment, or other positive feature of Barnaby Joyce.”

  14. Sally McManus‏Verified account
    @sallymcmanus

    has agreed to a free trade agreement that will mean companies can fly in workers from: Vietnam, Malaysia, Japan, Canada, Mexico or Chile WITHOUT seeing if a local could do the job first. This will make jobs more insecure and keep wages low #TPP

  15. A test for the media, if the right push old reheated claims against Labor MPs, perhaps they will think to look at more recent, previously uninvestigated claims of against serving ministers.

    There have been some good articles this week, PaulB and Mark Kenny, and even today from MacGregor, none of them cry ‘poor Malcolm’, the state of the government is his responsibility, from the secret 2013 and 2016 coalition agreements and his most recent sex ban. I think it was Kenny, who quoted a Liberal party figure who said ‘Malcolm always takes the path of least resistance’. That tendency explains a lot.

  16. From the article, Why America’s Right is Attacking Florida School Shooting Survivors’:

    Ironically – or perhaps not – the most prominent figure to have used paid actors in a political event recently was Donald Trump, who retained a firm to assemble actors to cheer for his announcement speech, at a rate of $50 each. The firm lodged a complaint with the Federal Election Commission because the Trump campaign failed to pay their bill (the campaign did eventually pay).

    Wow! Trump uses every trick in the book to fool people.

  17. John Reidy,
    What that pivot away from the current imbroglios consuming the Coalition, and towards those 20 year old Julia Gillard/ AWU boyfriend accusations, says to me is that the Coalition is as desperate as a cornered rat.

  18. All I can say about the state of play today is that the wheels are coming off and the government car is heading to the crash barrier head on.

  19. Falconer084: I have a feeling that the #Resistance is about to get a LOT more Aussies joining in from the left and right wings. Turnbull is giving $2 trillion of our Superannuation to Trump.
    #Auspol #USPolitics

  20. JB_AU: It’s not the media that have opened up the can of worms on personal lives, it’s the politicians.

    Their nasty, personal attacks on members of the public who disagree with their policies have been getting worse and worse.

  21. Emma4Change: Listened to your words @waynelapierrejr, and know that when I wrote #ShameOnYou in my speech, I was talking about you. The Disgust I feel for the lies you’re promoting with no consequences? Unsurpassed. You have no right call BS when thats all that ever leaves your mouth. pic.twitter.com/XJEZZVXtkl

  22. Labor will conduct a major review of tertiary education if elected and “wants prospective students to see Tafe and uni as equally attractive study options”.

    The party’s education spokeswoman Tanya Plibersek will make the announcement at a Tafe in Melbourne on Friday in a bid to “make sure Australians have access to the best post-secondary opportunities in the world”.

    “This will be the first time a national inquiry has put Tafe and unit on an equal footing,” she said ahead of the announcement.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/feb/23/labor-pledges-inquiry-into-universities-and-tafe-sector?CMP=share_btn_tw

  23. These days Abbott may be merely full of hot air but he still finds an outlet at the Oz. Let him keep venting his injured pride right up until the election!

    ‘I know more about winning’
    TONY ABBOTT
    One thing I am not going to cop is gratuitous criticism from ministers who are only in government because I led them there.

  24. Labor reviews – brings back fond memories of all the “reviews” launched by the people’s Kevin in 2007 – until of course it was discovered he was in fact a treacherous anti-party running dog.

  25. C@tmomma @ #17 Friday, February 23rd, 2018 – 7:49 am

    John Reidy,
    What that pivot away from the current imbroglios consuming the Coalition, and towards those 20 year old Julia Gillard/ AWU boyfriend accusations, says to me is that the Coalition is as desperate as a cornered rat.

    But, (wait for it ❗ )without the charm ❗

    Back to my fresh coffee and murder story. ☕

  26. Excellent news.

    Failed Attempt to Smear Jeremy Corbyn Reveals Waning Power of British Tabloids

    Robert Mackey
    February 22 2018, 4:02 a.m.
    FOR DECADES, BRITISH politicians have cowered in fear at the power of the nation’s popular and largely unregulated tabloid newspapers, which are owned by a handful of billionaires, and skew heavily to the far right.

    https://theintercept.com/2018/02/21/failed-attempt-smear-jeremy-corbyn-reveals-waning-power-britains-tabloid-press/

  27. Re the photo of Barnaby (supposedly) washing up. OH and myself have different ideas about how much water to use – she goes for the minimalist approach while I think you need a certain amount to do a good job.

  28. Kay Jay,
    I’m sure the Coalition and their boosters and shills on Sky, like Credlin, and that guy from WA, think they are flash rats like this:

    🙂

  29. ‘The Hoarse Whisperer‏ @HoarseWisperer · 21h21 hours ago

    Ronald Reagan was surrounded by Secret Service agents when he was shot.

    I guess they just needed a few armed math teachers.

  30. As I sat here posting, I felt an insect moving among the hairs on my right forearm.

    I resisted the immediate impulse to squash it and instead picked it up and examined it: a beautiful longicorn.

    I took it outside and carefully allowed it to walk off my hand onto a wattle leaf.

    #InsectsonPB

  31. “Re the photo of Barnaby (supposedly) washing up. OH and myself have different ideas about how much water to use – she goes for the minimalist approach while I think you need a certain amount to do a good job.”

    You’re both wrong.

    There is no right amount of water to wash up 1 glass and 2 jars.

    Leave them on the side until after your next meal and wash them then.

  32. “PeeBee says:
    Friday, February 23, 2018 at 8:34 am
    Citizen, use a dishwasher and then the decision is out of your hands.”

    We have a dishwasher but still use the sink for larger things. With just the two of us, the dishwasher can take some time to fill and it seems a waste to run it at less than, say, half full.

  33. A Goldmann Sachs spiv like Turnbull could never be expected to regard a pile of public money like the super fund without figuring a way to redistribute it to his spiv mates.
    Privatise the profits, socialise the losses.

  34. I refuse to use a dishwasher. It leaves the plates with a scratchy texture that is like fingernails down a blackboard when you touch them. So I wash with the tap going and do it in increments as things get dirty as I’m cooking. So I wash and rinse at the same time. We hate detergent on our things as well. Then we only have our plates and glasses to wash after we eat. We never have things in the sink waiting to be washed and we don’t have cockroaches either! I wonder why? 🙂

    Plus, after many experiments measuring how much water was used to wash and rinse everything, because I often have to drain the sink after washing a greasy pot or pan, and then fill it again, I found my current method actually uses the least amount of water! Of course I don’t have the water on too much. And my boys don’t mind doing a bit of washing up here and there, whereas it was impossible to get them to do all of it when we did it all at once in the sink.

    I also don’t like putting the chemicals from the dishwasher tablets into the water waste system and I use a plant-based organic dishwashing detergent.

    I have gauged that, in toto, this is the best outcome for the environment. 🙂

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