YouGov Galaxy: 50-50 in Lee, 52-48 to Liberal over SA Best in Morialta

A neck-and-neck result in a key Adelaide marginal, and a somewhat disappointing result for SA Best in one of their main Liberal-held targets.

The Advertiser has two polls of Adelaide seats conducted by YouGov Galaxy, one from Labor-held Lee, the other from Liberal-held Morialta.

In Lee, Labor front-bencher Stephen Mullighan trails the Liberal candidate by 39% to 34% on the primary vote, with everything depending on preferences from SA Best, who are a distant third on 18%. Galaxy estimates that this translates into a two-party result of 50-50, but this would seem to be highly speculative.

The Morialta poll has SA Best clearing the first hurdle, outscoring Labor by 25% to 21% on the primary vote, unless preferences from the Greens on 6% closed the gap. However, Liberal incumbent John Gardner is estimated to emerge 52-48 in front, from a primary vote of 40%. The SA Best result is consistent with a statewide vote more in line with the 24.9% it recorded for the Senate in 2016 than the 30% plus figures that were coming through in earlier Galaxy polling.

A better premier question has Jay Weatherill on 31%, Steven Marshall on 25% and Nick Xenophon on 22% in Lee; in Morialta it’s all but a three-way tie, with Xenophon 28% and Weatherill and Marshall on 27% each. The polls were conducted last Wednesday and Thursday from samples of 520 in Lee and 505 in Morialta.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

57 comments on “YouGov Galaxy: 50-50 in Lee, 52-48 to Liberal over SA Best in Morialta”

  1. Worth also pointing out that nominations have closed and the ballot draws for the House of Assembly are today (the Legislative Council is tomorrow.) The ECSA website should have the candidate lists by the close of business today but I am sure you’ll hear anything interesting from journos first.

  2. So it looks like both Weatherill and Marshall have drawn #1 spots on their respective electorate ballots, whereas Xenophon placed last (An independent is number 1 and Labor is placed higher than Liberal.)

  3. Another day, another tram line, again a short extension from the city to North Adelaide. I think this is both good transport planning and good politics. These small tram extensions in Adelaide in recent years have been much more affordable than the large freeway projects and gotten good public response.
    https://indaily.com.au/news/2018/02/26/labor-promise-tram-extension-oconnell-st/

    Given the positive public reaction to similar projects in both Gold Coast and Canberra, it will be interesting to see how these pan out electorally. Marshall is basically saying no to PT investment; people get their tax cut for their million dollar “small” business instead. Great, that fixes everything.

  4. That Heysen poll is very interesting. If the Greens were to finish third and then jump to second through Labor preferences do any locals think that they have a realistic shot at winning the seat? Would make for a fascinating parliament if you were to throw a Green amongst the expected independents and SA Best members.

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