BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor

Following Newspoll, the latest poll aggregate reading washes away the Coalition’s gains from the earlier polling since New Year.

This week’s Newspoll result had added 0.3% to Labor’s two-party reading on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, and added one seat to their national on the seat projection, the gain being in South Australia. The biggest change on the primary vote is an improvement for One Nation, who reversed a weakening trend over the past few months with the latest poll. Newspoll also recorded a weakening in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, but evidently the aggregate had this priced in already, as the trend results show little changed on last week. As always, full results on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,221 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor”

  1. In the meantime, Luci, rant by all means. Blame Labor. You will not be alone. You will have the entire LNP, the Corey’s, ON and the Shooters & Fishers for company.

  2. Greensborough Growler says: Sunday, February 25, 2018 at 3:58 pm

    Mckenzie has issues to do with travel rorts to deal with. She also lives in Elwood a seaside suburb of Melbourne. So, her credentials as understanding and supporting the urban battlers are entirely fake.

    ****************************************************************

    …….. and isn’t she some sort of 21st Century Gun Toting Annie Oakley ???????

    McKenzie believes Australian gun owners are too often treated like “terrorists” and “rednecks” by those in the big cities who have never taken an interest in their way of life.

    “There’s a lot of snobbery and elitism that I find offensive and I really want to challenge it.”

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/meet-bridget-mckenzie-the-turnbull-government-senator-out-to-change-your-mind-about-guns-20151025-gkhubu.html

  3. Trog

    The Greens like the sniff of defeat, despair and electoral disaster. It is, after all, ALL they have to show for a quarter of a century’s worth of political struggle.

    Of course the Greens are attracted to South Australia!

  4. Player One @ #2178 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 3:45 pm

    Pegasus @ #2097 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 2:29 pm

    … me and other Greens members and supporters who infrequently post on PB.

    I trust you’re not being serious. Greens are massively over-represented on PB compared to the general populace. And as for”infrequent” posts, don’t be ridiculous – just your own drive-by posts each day make up a significant contribution.

    Oh how I lolled when I read that by Pegasus! Cognitive dissonance ahoy! 😆

  5. Confessions @ #2199 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 4:03 pm

    GG:

    MickMack sounds like a gaffe-prone plonker so I suppose he’s following Barnaby’s footsteps on that front.

    My observation of Nats MPs these days is that very few of them have any understanding of the issues facing rural and regional Australians. If they did they’d be locked and loaded behind trying to reduce the nation’s GHGEs.

    Agree.

    Joyce’s country bumpkin schtick was all for show. The real job of the Nats is to protect the interests of the Mining Industry and Pastoral interests.

  6. kezza2 @ #2196 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 4:01 pm

    Katherine Murphy @murpharoo . How Ostrayan can you get?

    Y’all know I’ve had a beef with Katherine Murphy, aka @murpharoo, since she decided, during the Gillard years, that ‘colour and movement’ was all that mattered in politics, and she was not hesitant to sink the boot into Australia’s first female PM, Julia Gillard.

    Fast forward. After her defection to The Guardian, and after a lot of criticism of her reporting, Katherine Murphy has done so many mea culpas for not reporting the “facts” but rather how she perceived them, has become de rigueur in her articles.

    Her justification for not reporting the BJoyce affair was pretty pathetic. She, and a photographer, were apparently assigned a duty – to go to New England and report on the suspected BJoyce affair. One presumes the dispatcher was Lenore Taylor.

    She comes back, and reports “Nothing to see here.”

    Fair enough. Katherine, being a New Englander herself, apparently, decided there was nothing to the rumour of an extramarital affair, because ‘Fair Dinkum Accountant’ Barnaby said so.

    So, then, after the affair is confirmed and reported by various other outlets, out comes the mea culpa from Murphy, wtte, “despite most people thinking the CPG is a hive mind, nothing could be further from the truth. I didn’t even know about the affair. And when I confronted him, he said “No.” So I couldn’t report anything. Obviously the photographer thought the same, or why mention him/her.

    Fast Forward Again. Well, as it turns out, Murpharoo had a big story on her hands. Apparently, Barnaby Joyce, the Deputy PM of Australia, in the prime of his political career, was ‘pensive, didn’t want to be there, and talked about succession’.

    And in true Murpharoo fashion, completely missed the story under her nose.

    And in true Murpharoo fashion, reports this as a round-up of yet another mea culpa in the making.

    FFS girl, get your act together.

    An excellent summary of Murphy’s somewhat less than illustrious career. If the answer wasn’t so bloody obvious, you’d wonder how on earth she manages to keep her position.

  7. Just heard through the grapevine that Boerwar is writing a book about the Greens entitled “Greens Don’t Count, Do They?”
    Here are the chapter headings:
    1 : A Brief History of the Greens: From Slime to Forests and Back Again
    2: Bob Brown and The Quest for Power
    3: How Bob’s Precious Went Down the Drain
    4: Climbing Mount Doom with Sarah Hanson Young
    5: Don’t Mention the Environment, It Can Only Cause Trouble
    6: How Adani Will Go Away Naturally
    7: Weak Climate Proposals Always Work Best
    8: Why the Greens Will Never Have Any Influence
    9: Why the Greens Will Never Have Any Influence Pt2
    10: Kale and Avocado: Symbols of Repression

  8. Actually – the true definition of Overton’s Window exemplifies what I previously stated.

    I think it was Boerwar above who challenged you (no potato) above and I agree with his assessment here.

    Also the reactionary rump of the Liberals/Nationals DO provide fodder for fear campaigns, as Turnbull’s dilemma proves (Turnbull is stymied by the fear of what the rump will unleash). ON and Greens, the Oz Conservatives are all generally unpalatable to the bulk of electors, even if they might agree with single issues.

    While I sympathise with a lot of Green’s policy stands, their methods are impractical and their demands for immediate change do not take into account the necessity of process (as I stated in a previous post). Extreme parties have no real clout because they ignore the consequences of sudden or extreme changes of direction.

  9. “17 states already allow teachers to carry guns at school. So maybe not that. Perhaps it it a ‘backlash’ for his even mentioning possible restrictions ?”

    Relief teachers have bulleyes painted on their top or signs saying “Kick me”. Even when I was young they copped the worst behaviour.

    Relief teachers with guns reminds me of “cows with guns”
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a5s5qGg01nE

  10. Bw

    The rain a little to fast this morning. Half would have been good for a starter and rest in 4 or 5 days.

    No roof leaks but water close to coming in via some sliding doors.

    Lots of locals will be wanting garden drains seen to in the next few weeks, I’d say -including me..

  11. Ctari

    Pretty wild weather

    How is Braddon doing. Northborne Ave closed so I assume it has flooded into Braddon too. Is that the case.

  12. C@tmomma @ #2195 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 4:00 pm

    Now, if you are really interested about knowing the truth of where the federal Labor Party stands on Thermal Coal Mining, Coking Coal Mining, Climate Change policies, Adani and the global perspective wrt all these things, then I recommend you read Mark Butler’s speech to The Sydney Institute, which he gave last week on February 19th, 2018:

    https://markbutler.net.au/news/speeches/managing-climate-related-financial-risk-lessons-from-adani/

    Then get back to me if you still think Labor are gung ho for Adani. 🙂

    I never said Labor is currently ‘gung ho’for Adani, but rather that they have not taken a public stance
    opposing it – and this is what is needed. (And, yes, in the past, they have been supportive of Adani based on “jobs” – all the more reason that they need to come out strongly against it now to set things straight.).

    I read the speech. Firstly, Mark Butler is speaking more strongly about this than other Labor MPs and/or the Leader Bill Shorten, and it is impossible to say that this is the official public Labor stance. I had already read the newspaper reports of his speech, and liked what he said, but don’t see it as matching what Bill Shorten has said. Secondly, I didn’t see anywhere in his speech Labor actually opposing the Adani mine. Mark Butler shared his personal opinion that the mine is not in the national interest, however, did not state that this was the official Labor party stance or suggest that Labor was going to do anything to block the mine from happening.

    Mark pointed out numerous issues with the mining project (good on him) – primarily making a financial/business argument. Good on Mark for pointing out how the Adani mine makes no economic sense, but he is primarily making out like investors and banks realised this for themselves and have chosen not to invest – “the market” has decided – ignoring the fact that the #StopAdani movement and investigative journalists were crucial in raising awareness of the issues and project risks and campaigning against the mine. And the argument fails to acknowledge that even if it the mine were financially viable it should not go ahead for many other reasons.

    If there had been none of this public opposition to the mine (which put pressure on banks to not fund it etc), Adani would have been successful in gaining funding, and would have begun works by now. Why does the public have to campaign on issues that our political reps should be standing against? It’s only relatively recently that Labor has publicly started acknowledging some of the issues of the mine project, but still has not conclusively opposed it.

    Labor has the power to effectively shut down the mine project, for good, if they make it clear that they would revoke permissions if/when they gain government. They’ve had this ability for years. But they haven’t done so. When I raise this issue with my MP, they send back 2 pages of weasel words along the lines of ‘Labor is better than the Coalition’ – but do not make any statement actually confirming their opposition to the mine. Labor may be currently criticising some parts of the mine project (NAIF loan, fake jobs, etc), but appear okay with others, and it’s not a “hard stance” we can bank on but rather one that could change from today to tomorrow. This is why I accuse them of fence-sitting.

    Until we get this clarity, there is always the risk that Adani will go quiet for a while, find another way when we aren’t looking, and sneak it past us. Whether the Coalition will give them the money through a different fund or department, or a different company will take on the rail project, or another financier will invest, or they will make better jobs promises to win Labor back onside… We all know this isn’t just about “Adani”… there are many powerful players such as Gina Rhineheart who want to open up the Gallilee and need that rail line to do it.

    Now, if I were to ask my Labor MP where they stand on a different issue – like Gonski – they will give a clear answer. But on an issue like the Adani mine, we get a wishy-washy response.

    That doesn’t mean I hate Labor. Well, actually, I kind of hate all political parties… but in order from most hated to least hated Coalition are clearly the worst because they have both bad policies and the power to implement them, and when it comes to Labor and the Greens they are on even keel to me…. Labor has significant power to implement change (or at the very least: to block the Coalition’s bad policies), but it often fails to use this power effectively and is encumbered by its right wing faction. Greens has very little power, can sometimes be unrealistic, however, raises awareness of progressive issues, which is essential in combating the overall creep of all parties to the right.

  13. poroti

    What struck me about the picture is that both Trump and Truffles have something which I do not remember seeing before. A smile that does not look fake.

    Turnbulls last meeting before heading home?

  14. Could the ABC news get any more deferential towards great leader and his triumphant trip to the US?

    I don’t think so. Andrew Probyn stepping up to fill the shoes of his brilliant predecessor, Chris Ulhmann, and before him Mark Simkin.

    You have to wonder how the ABC finds such talent.

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