ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor

More evidence that the Barnaby Joyce saga has shut out the Coalition’s glimmer of polling sunlight at the start of the year.

The latest ReachTEL poll for Sky News is the Coalition’s worst result from that pollster this term, showing Labor with a two-party lead of 54-46, out from 52-48 at the previous poll on January 25. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 33%, Labor is up one to 37%, the Greens are up one to 11% and One Nation are down one to 7%. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead on the forced response preferred prime minister question is 53-47, down from 54-46. The poll was conducted on Thursday, the evening before Barnaby Joyce’s resignation: it found 57% thought he should indeed resign, against 32% who thought he should remain. A question on who should be Nationals leader had Joyce on 23%, Bridget McKenzie on 15%, Michael McCormack on 11%, Darren Chester on 6% and “don’t know” a formidable 40%.

UPDATE: As noted in comments, the Coalition have done well to make it to 54-46 on ReachTEL’s respondent-allocated two-party preferred result. If 2016 election preference flows are applied, the result is around 55.5-44.5.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,838 comments on “ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor”

  1. doyley @ #1797 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 8:30 pm

    mikehilliard,

    That may well be the case re Adani and Queenslanders but unless you live there you would not realise how much hope a lot of Queenslanders are putting into the mine going ahead.

    I am very uneasy as to how this will play out in regional Queensland.

    Rightly or wrongly people have been relying on the mine and there is a big danger Shorten will be painted as a liar and will get the full blame when Adani goes arse up.

    Anyway, time will tell.

    Cheers.

    Turnbull just turfed Mr Gina. So, the pressures now on him to make the deal!

  2. geoffrey

    Ctar1

    Montpellier is in France – why pick on Montpellier? It’s a nice place with its own airport

    “With its own airport” … that’s if you make it back to the A/P.

    It’s notorious for people who can’t swim getting themselves drowned on it’s very decent beaches!

  3. Cat, I’m on tablet, so short version. Cousins wants to ditch Adani and doesn’t think there would be contractual problems on current evidence. Wants ALP to say the same.

  4. Question @ #1806 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 8:39 pm

    Cat, I’m on tablet, so short version. Cousins wants to ditch Adani and doesn’t think there would be contractual problems on current evidence. Wants ALP to say the same.

    Labor have stated they won’t ditch contracts. So, unless Turnbull can cut through the processn and get the deals in place, that won’t happen.

    So, if there is an election and this is in play, Greens voters have nowhere else to go with their preferences other than Labor!

  5. Adrian, normally I agree with you on ABC, but it came across to me that Shorten is working on a position rather than doing Turnbull style brain farts.

  6. I think it will all be a lot clearer tomorrow when Labor and Shorten respond as to where they want to take the issue re contracts and soverign risk etc.

    I am still sceptical re how this will be viewed in Quennsland but we shall see.

    Cheers.

  7. Boerwar

    Absolutely not. If you read my posts you will see that nothing could be further from the truth.

    I think you have got the wrong end of the stick.

    I agree with everything you have said about Putin.

  8. Doyley, I don’t know about regional QLD, but I think if you have good policy it’s easier to win the argument.

    Perhaps a lolly/investment for QLD would help?

  9. daretotread. @ #1744 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 7:19 pm

    Bemused

    I gave you the link.

    Not my fault if you have not the skill set to use it

    So very, very quickly because I am going pout
    Look at the middle picture graph. It is a tie line.

    Much better for this sort of thing than the matrix

    OK of my six scensarios and maybe add falling off a ladder for explanation.

    An influenza outbreak rate unusual but possible, whooping cough and falling of a ladder as almost certain to happen, global warming also almost certain and is war in the middle east – both even higher in the line thatn amlost certain.
    Sexual harrassment same. Only nuclear war goes right down to practically impossible. Are you OK so far?

    Then look at the exposure. Here it is aa bit of a judgement call. Say falling off a ladder will depend upon whether your business in painting (when exposure is daily) or perhaps just the occasional use of a ladder in an archives room (say 4 tomes/yr). Now for my scenarios you need to think what you mean by exposure ie the event can happen – how many people are then at risk. So in a nuclear war it is many many million, middle east just a few million, same with a flue epidemic, perhaps a 100,000 for whooping cough, perhaps ps many million for global warming and maybe 100,000 for sexual harassment.

    Since we are talking globally probably just abpout every singel one goes through the all the time line, but if it were just Australia or it would be different..

    Anyway you draw a line from your point of probabiity and see where it crosses the tie line. So nuclear war crosses roughtly in the middle while flu crosses practically at the bottom.

    From the cross over point you then draw a line to the consequence spot eg Nuclea war hits somewhere between 50 and 500 and flu abpve 500.

    It depends on judgement

    Gotta go

    I went to your link.

    Standard AS 4360 5 x 5 matrix.

    The rest added nothing to it but complications.

  10. sprocket_ @ #1747 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 7:23 pm

    Observing a fair bit of Senate Estimates, I must say the the Trot Lee Rhiannon is the best of the Greens. McKim is much too earnest, Siewart to scattered, Steele-John has a pubescent beard, and SHY and the Black Wiggle are MIA.

    The worst by far is Victorian Greens Senator Janet Rice. Fair Dinkum!

    My thoughts on Rhiannon too. The only one I would regard as being in any sense ‘left’.

    I heard a bit of Tanya P yesterday berating the Greens, particularly SHY for falling for supporting the Govt cuts to education which mainly targeted public education. Until Rhiannon raised it in their party room and they changed their mind. Rhiannon’s reward was to lose pre-selection.

  11. Question,

    Shorten has just been in regional Queensland announcing millions in investment in infrastructure projects and ramping up against Adani.

    Shorten and labor have stated time after time that Adani must stack up ” commercially and environmentally ” on its own two feet so they do have cover there.

    My main concern is Adani using this 7.30 report as cover for its probable failure and they and the MSM putting full blame on Shorten.

    Adani is a hot issue in regional Queensland.

    Anyway, tomorrow will be interesting.

    Cheers.

  12. Rightly or wrongly people have been relying on the mine and there is a big danger Shorten will be painted as a liar and will get the full blame when Adani goes arse up.

    It will channel rivers of gold into accounts in tax havens controlled by the Adani company, no matter what happens, it will pay negligible Australian tax or Queensland royalties, it will create jobs for two men and a dog in Central Queensland. And maybe cause immense damage to the Reef and in any case leave a God-awful mess for someone (not the Gupta family) to clean up.

  13. Steve

    If people in Queensland, and I include the State government, can’t see that the Adani mine is a scam, not to mention an environmental disaster, it just reinforces every stereotype about them.

  14. still trying to work out shorten’s style (rhetorical at least)

    he is a left wing/union opposite to turnbull

    whereas turnbull puts a case for whatever (although it is not apparent always as if wrapped in barristerial beguile), shorten put a case as he would a union rep – a case he does not fully own or devise …
    both speak from script turnbull will bit more ease

    anyway that is my best go at this peculiar matter why shorten is not more prominent in public estimate … this may or may not be a huge liability but it has always seems a big risk in the short term esp with so much to oppose – i wish there could be a leader without union ties and % of union derived parliamentarians could be capped – no more than 20% say – until such reform labor remains a drag on its true potential

    button up jacket again

  15. In relation to Adani, I’m sure I saw somewhere the other day that the fix is in with the CFMEU, based on not shafting existing coal mines.

    I’m pretty sure any loss of seats in North Queensland will be more than compensated by gains elsewhere, including SE Queensland where sentiment on Adam is pretty much the same as in southern capitals.

  16. Cameron says:
    Tuesday, February 27, 2018 at 8:00 pm
    Donald Trump Wants to Make It Easier to Start a Nuclear War. This Should Petrify Us.

    This was last proposed in the fading days of the Cold War, when Reagan was President. The problem is there really is no such thing as a little nuclear weapon, so attempts to make nuclear weapons more “deployable” are self-defeating. The concept was abandoned. It will be abandoned again because the use of nuclear weapons in “tactical”engagements would undermine their utility in a general “strategic” sense. It’s important to realise that to use nuclear weapons is to negate the very reason for having them. They have immeasurable defensive value but are practically useless as offensive devices.

    I think Trump is just posing, in the same way that the North Koreans also pose. Trump has been accused of treason, of being Putin’s patsy. He will be interested in defending himself against such charges. Talking up military innovation is a way to do that.

    He’s also purporting to be interested in confronting China over their territorial assertions in the South China Sea. But he’s not really that interested. He has asked for other naval powers to participate, including the UK and (though we have very limited naval capabilities) Australia as well. The US does not want to challenge China alone. While China is asserting itself more and more, it’s not obvious that this is contrary to fundamental US interests even though it is very significant to China’s many small neighbours and to regional powers such as India, Japan and – most likely – Russia too.

    Trump is providing political cover for Putin and trying to fend off his political critics at the same time. Just like his threats against North Korea, his nuclear talk will prove to be empty.

  17. Mr Shorten will admit to a fact finding exercise with the help of Mr Cousins. He will acknowledge due diligence and will continue to await the outcome from his shadow cabinet and other interested parties such as the Unions.
    Mr Shorten has clearly been done over by Mr Cousins.
    Mr Cousins is angling for an outcome acceptable to he and his interests.
    Labor will now lose out in Qld. as a result of the conjecture surrounding Adani however this was always a problem.
    Shorten’s dilemma is whether opposition to Adani will carry favour acroos the nation despite the potential loss of seats in Qld.
    What will the Greens offer Labor to come out against Adani.
    Or will the Greens destroy Labors position and hand government back into the hands of the Coalition and assure the Adani and associated mines to go ahead.
    Mr Cousins has lobbed a malicious play into the Batman by-election and the next Federal election. Perception, in whatever guise wins again.

  18. poroti

    T for Thatcher ?

    It never occurred to me.

    (Trivia –

    The application was one of many that ran on a ICL computer in the bottom of the basement of the Ministry of Defence.

    English ‘spy’ writers/novelists, more than one, referred to the computer centre as ‘the Yellow Submarine’.

    The computer centre had at least 5 armed guards against physical assault 24/7, but it was generally considered that the main security effort was against the Yanks.

    Therefore only computer kit made in the UK was permitted .)

  19. Boerwar @ #1753 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 7:31 pm

    IMO you appear to be confusing the probability of the loss of the majority of H. sapiens with the probability of the loss of all of H. sapiens.

    IMO you are overestimating the survival potential of Homo Saps on a planet that will be experiencing “the closest the planet has come to ending up a dead and desolate rock in space”.

    http://globalwarming.berrens.nl/globalwarming.htm

    Yes, life will probably survive. But not Homo Saps.

  20. GG

    Why are there all these TV/news articles about Hawke on at the moment?

    Blanche d’Alpuget was on 7:30 tonight for her 500th (it seems like that!) interview on “Bob’n’Blanche” …

    (7:30 as an informant type of current affairs show with an emphasised focus on domestic politics looks to be sinking fast. By the time Tingle arrives all that will be left is a smoking ruin.

    Geoff Cousins also on again with his usual message as well, but what struck me with his bit, was I wondered where he got the very well tailored grey casual jacket he was wearing.)

  21. Laura Tingle’s father John Tingle was the founder of the Shooters Party in New South Wales and served in Parliament from 1996 to 2001, so I would not expect her to be commentator from the centre

  22. re the suggestion that Victorian students have additional testing in english before they leave high school

    As I understand it, and i await correction from zoomster, the year 12 english exam tests the students competency in essay writing. In my day students were tested on english comprehension with short answers as well as writing essays to test whether they had read and analysed the prescribed texts

    The English as a second language exam might be a better test of English competency for school leavers, engineers, technologists than the current exam. Students wanting to study humanities at university should be competent essay writers

    Numeracy: all students should complete maths at year 12 – perhaps revamp the syllabus as it is full of arcane never used stuff in Year 11.

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/we-don-t-need-more-testing-teachers-warn-against-vce-proposal-20180227-p4z204.html

  23. adrian

    According to ABC news it was a SECRET meeting that Shorten held with Cousins.

    These days that’s the way the ABC would portray it.

    Cousins was at pains to emphasise that he had an agreement with Shorten that he could talk about the meeting only when he had Shortens go ahead to do so.

  24. re Year 12 exams in Victoria, a comment from a former teacher

    Chris Curtis
    16 hours ago
    This is potentially very good news. VCE is basically an attendance certificate. Once upon a time, passing HSC meant having a certain basic standard of literacy because English was compulsory and it was marked against actual criteria. VCE brought in the concept of “satisfactory completion”, which was a quantity measure not an academic standard.

    I recall that in the first year of VCE I rated a student’s writing folio as unsatisfactory. It came back from the moderator as D+. That told me how low the standard for so-called “completion” was. In 1999, I went to a VCE English inservice at which the official presenter told us of the new criteria for marking VCE English – and they were very solid indeed. She then went on to say that the board expected the “satisfactory completion” rate, around 95 per cent, to remain the same, telling us that the criteria were not actually to be applied in marking work.

    The lower standard brought in by VCE when compared with HSC has certainly increased the number of students staying on to year 12, and this is of benefit to those students, but improving their literacy and numeracy would be even better.

  25. Galilee Basin mining leases:

    Unless things have changed there is only one approved mining lease in the Galilee basin – Adani (where the railway line is supposed to go to and TERMINATE),

    Applications made but not ‘approved’:

    – Ginas (lease next to to Adani’s Carmichael lease),
    – Palmer (next along/further away from the railway)
    – MAC Mines (another Indian company) and
    – Waratah (more ‘Clive/Minerology)

    If the railway line terminates at Adani Carmichael’s existing Lease and they can deny other lease holders from using it (not likely after some precedents in the N-W of WA) then the others will have to move their coal from their lease to Adani’s rail terminal.

    The most practical way to do this would to build more railway lines and the effect of these on profitability will increase with the distance from Carmichael (longer distance more cost in the order of the ‘application made but not approved’ list above).

    Another possible way to do this would be to build a ‘Slurry Pipeline’ requiring the coal to be ‘crunched’ on the mining site and mixed with water and pumped down to Newcastle and then dried somewhere within close proximity to the Rail terminal so it could be moved the final bit via a conveyor belt system. A ‘slurry pipeline’ was proposed by Transfield years ago as a way of getting coal down to Newcastle from mines in the Hunter Valley. I don’t know if one has been built anywhere!

  26. And just where would they find the water,and how much would they need to implement a ‘slurry solution.?
    This in a country where water is precious. What price would they have to pay to farmers and/or the state govt. for slurping up any aquifer or ground resources?

  27. The problem with the 6 degrees of warming scenario is that it does not stop there because at that point all the methane clathrate frozen at the bottom of the oceans or under the Siberian tundra starts to boil off at a really serious rate (well beyond anything currently). That process kicks off another warming spurt taking us to 9 degrees or beyond.
    So, yes, all vegetation that we and most animals depend on is wiped out and the only things left are some insects & arthropods, and bacteria of course. No mammals. Guess what family we belong to?

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