ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor

More evidence that the Barnaby Joyce saga has shut out the Coalition’s glimmer of polling sunlight at the start of the year.

The latest ReachTEL poll for Sky News is the Coalition’s worst result from that pollster this term, showing Labor with a two-party lead of 54-46, out from 52-48 at the previous poll on January 25. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 33%, Labor is up one to 37%, the Greens are up one to 11% and One Nation are down one to 7%. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead on the forced response preferred prime minister question is 53-47, down from 54-46. The poll was conducted on Thursday, the evening before Barnaby Joyce’s resignation: it found 57% thought he should indeed resign, against 32% who thought he should remain. A question on who should be Nationals leader had Joyce on 23%, Bridget McKenzie on 15%, Michael McCormack on 11%, Darren Chester on 6% and “don’t know” a formidable 40%.

UPDATE: As noted in comments, the Coalition have done well to make it to 54-46 on ReachTEL’s respondent-allocated two-party preferred result. If 2016 election preference flows are applied, the result is around 55.5-44.5.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,838 comments on “ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor”

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  2. “”P1
    Total extinction is an extremely unlikely consequence of global warming.””
    The Human Animal should be aware that 98% of living things have become Extinct over time.
    To ignore this is unwise.

  4. Further to my post on federal Essential poll (53-47) &Tasmanian poll(s) (where it was predicted that LNP could win), let me put these facts in front of you, which you all know:
    After MT won 2016 federal election by 1 seat, LNP lost 3 consecutive state/territory elections (2 by humungous margins & one where ALP was not supposed to win).
    Although federal LNP says that local issues led to LNP defeat, you all know that is entirely not true.
    If federally, LNP had good government, at least LNP could have won QLD. You would also notice that MT did not campaign in above elections (going once for each election is not campaigning)
    You also noticed when LNP won the 2 federal by-elections, he behaved as if he had won a lottery.
    So if LNP wins Tasmanian election, it would be 3 consecutive election wins for LNP.
    Also, winning Tasmanian election is going against the trend of LNP losing state elections.
    Since 2016 federal election,federally it is 1 disaster after another for the LNP.
    Still they are only trailing by 53-47.
    Even John Howard trailed 42-58 a few times when he was PM & he was second longest PM after Menzies.
    Boerwar commented that “one poll does not a political death make”
    Actually there were 2 polls in the last few days in Tasmania, where LP got same percentage of polling (46%)
    DTT commented that people do not care much about scandals & economy according to news is booming in Tasmania.
    Fair enough about economy part, but when it comes to scandals I will quote a few more polls
    SSM yes vote won plebiscite by 61.5 %. In Recent Newspoll, 65% of public wanted Joyce to resign as Deputy PM & NP leader. So what does that say. Many voters who voted for SSM, wanted Joyce to go after scandal broke.

  5. The Libs in SA have finally come up with an idea, and it’s a very good one. This idea has been kicking around for a while. The building sucks but the concept is excellent.

    “AUSTRALIA’S leading indigenous art gallery would become the centrepiece of the old Royal Adelaide Hospital site, under a bold new Liberal redevelopment plan.”

    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/sa-election-2018/sa-liberals-propose-national-aboriginal-art-and-culture-gallery-highend-hotel-for-old-rah-site/news-story/4dffcba14fe283514351fbda43121bdb

  7. We need more dams for when the rain comes…

    There is a much bigger problem, and it applies equally to Joyce, McCormack and the rest of their party. ABC Radio’s PM program vox-popped a few constituents in Armidale after Joyce stepped down on Friday afternoon, and one man on the street nailed it: “He’s a climate change denier, Barnaby Joyce, and I just find such people disturbing, and we lost him because he had sex with someone, I just find that also disturbing, we should be losing him because he doesn’t think properly.”

    Going by McCormack’s parliamentary contributions on climate change to date, our new deputy prime minister also doesn’t think properly.

    In his speeches, Dorothea Mackellar’s well-flogged lines get a lot more flogging: “I love a sunburnt country, A land of sweeping plains, Of ragged mountain ranges, Of droughts and flooding rains.” Especially that last bit, which has been wheeled out in service of the denialist notion that because Australia has always had droughts and floods, there is nothing new or remarkable in science that suggests climate change will make the droughts and floods more frequent or worse.

    https://www.themonthly.com.au/today/paddy-manning/2018/26/2018/1519620354/meet-our-new-deputy-pm

  8. Diogenes @ #1705 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 6:05 pm

    The Libs in SA have finally come up with an idea, and it’s a very good one. This idea has been kicking around for a while. The building sucks but the concept is excellent.

    “AUSTRALIA’S leading indigenous art gallery would become the centrepiece of the old Royal Adelaide Hospital site, under a bold new Liberal redevelopment plan.”

    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/sa-election-2018/sa-liberals-propose-national-aboriginal-art-and-culture-gallery-highend-hotel-for-old-rah-site/news-story/4dffcba14fe283514351fbda43121bdb

    You always find a skerrick to justify supporting the Tories.

    Oops, you’ve done it again!

  9. ven

    the explanation of relatively small polling gains is shorten sadly … he is drag – might improve in campaign and if PM but still a risk

    re tasmania – the opposition leader made big mistake in making pokies such a big issue – in seeking abolition – not very pragmatic – she should have advocated a commission, or separate large venues vs smaller pubs etc … a great shame

  10. kakaru

    My father-in-law is of Italian descent, and ‘barbarian’ is too kind a word for him.

    😆

    Any ‘visitors’ who identify as “AAAAGoth” are generally bad news and early attempts to get them to book their summer break to Montpellier (or just any where were you don’t live) next year is a good strategy!

  11. 1934pc @ #1702 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 6:03 pm

    “”P1
    Total extinction is an extremely unlikely consequence of global warming.””
    The Human Animal should be aware that 98% of living things have become Extinct over time.
    To ignore this is unwise.

    We should also give credence to the genuine possibility of the Sun exploding which will certainly upset next weeks surprise BBQ party.

    Also, I always keep a weather eye out for meteors crashing down. It causes freeway disruption every time.

  12. Pezzullo and Dutton harbour a confused view about the protection of liberty. To ensure its strength, a degree of state confusion and muddling is necessary. But security assumes the force of a sledgehammer, centralised and directed against citizen and enemy alike.

    Intoned Pezzullo before his audience:

    You need a focused effort, you need to ensure unity of purpose and clarity of direction, and critically, in this day and age, you need a single accountable minister under the Prime Minister and Cabinet, at the apex of the entire security apparatus, supported by the department of state whose responsibilities mirror that minister, and can support he or she.

    What cannot be regulated must be eliminated. This is the mantra from the secretary of a department that should be trimmed rather than unleashed:

    Quite apart from his mangling of grammar, Pezzullo is a danger to our liberty.

    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/politicising-intelligence-dutton-pezzullo-and-the-department-of-home-affairs,11243#.WpT1DWhCJnA.facebook

  14. daretotread. @ #1687 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 5:47 pm

    Bemused
    https://www.dowellsolutions.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/Risk-Score-Calculator.pdf

    Now using this link which referes to seral methods of risk calculation – inc the 5×5 matix i mentioned

    Now just for interest I have rougly used the tie line (middle one) to rescore all my others.

    this is what I cam up with. The only surrise was whooping cough which went up.

    But here goes

    Middle east war got a 500
    Global warming got a 200
    Whooping ough got a 100
    Nycear war about 50
    Flue epidemic 30
    Sexual harrassment 10-20.

    Now you use the same tool and see what YOU come up with. Happy to hear your views. Alternatively on the 5×5 matrix all six of my scenarios would score an H for high. Do it yourself.

    That is self evidently absurd.
    Global warming is no longer a risk, it is happening.
    War is already raging in various parts of the middle east

    What do these numbers mean? What is the scale?

  15. Barney in Go Dau

    Turnbullian Mathematics to the fore, using base 11 of course!!!!

    I ‘inherited’ a work system (used by about 300 users on a daily basis) that had a ‘check digit’ routine that used Base 11. The extra digit represented by a ‘T’.

    It was ‘fun’ fixing things when they went wrong.

  17. lizzie says:
    Tuesday, February 27, 2018 at 6:20 pm

    What cannot be regulated must be eliminated.

    Is this bloke a Dalek? I can hear him now, “Exterminate! Exterminate! Exterminate!”

  18. ‘Player One says:
    Tuesday, February 27, 2018 at 5:46 pm

    Boerwar @ #1663 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 5:26 pm

    P1
    Total extinction is an extremely unlikely consequence of global warming.

    It is unlikely, but not extremely unlikely. All it would take is warming above 5 degrees to make it likely. And we already have 3 – 4 degrees warming locked and loaded.’

    It is well within current technologies for H. sapiens to be able to survive plus five degrees of global warming handily.

    Of course the population would have to go down by over 90% but that is still a long, long way from extinction.

  20. Credlin repeating the lie that 500 coal fire powered stations are being built around the world. She repeats it around once a day.
    Fitzgibbon is handling her quite well.

  22. It’s astounding how farmers who will suffer the most in terms of the impact of climate change on their livelihood, are represented by a bunch of climate change denialists. Or is the real base of the National Party just coal miners and petrol head bogans.

  29. abc730‏Verified account @abc730 · 14m14 minutes ago

    “He has no fear of death and we’ve talked about it quite a lot.” An emotional Blanche d’Alpuget tells (an emotional) @leighsales how she’ll cope with life after Bob Hawke. More tonight #abc730

  30. I have to admit, Tim Tams are way less messy than honey.

    Cotties chocolate topping.

    We were in nth Qld and the Tim Tams had already melted.

    😉

  32. can we please have a new oppos leader who is on the ball and persuasive

    i know this is wrong place to ask this and i have my jacket on

  33. keating would eat this mob up

    i always had second thoughts on keating esp with hawke and his arrogance and market values – perhaps still do

  34. Diogenes @ #1699 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 6:01 pm

    If you combine global warming with a nuclear war they should cancel each other out temperature-wise. So there’s nothing to worry about as long as we get both.
    You know it makes sense.

    I’m sure a deliberately induced “nuclear winter” will be seriously considered as an option in a couple of decades. And if you just happen to knock out half the population as well, then “win-win” 🙁

  36. Further to my previous post on Tasmanian opinion polls
    Remember Bob Carr (NSW), Geoff Gallop (WA), Steve Bracks (VIC), Mike Rann(SA), Bacon (TAS). Their 1st State elections wins were not easy. Even Wetherill won a difficult election last time in SA. Nobody expected Daniel Andrews to win election in Vic from first term LNP government. Yet he won.

  42. C@t

    ABC7.30 has been nosediving for some years with Liberal Leigh in the chair, and a cohort of YoungLibs infesting the production side of the house. And the Tory Andrew Probyn is dyed in the same cloth as the DLP tragic Chirs Uhlmann.

    Maybe Laura Tingle will move them back to the centre?

  44. Bemused

    I gave you the link.

    Not my fault if you have not the skill set to use it

    So very, very quickly because I am going pout
    Look at the middle picture graph. It is a tie line.

    Much better for this sort of thing than the matrix

    OK of my six scensarios and maybe add falling off a ladder for explanation.

    An influenza outbreak rate unusual but possible, whooping cough and falling of a ladder as almost certain to happen, global warming also almost certain and is war in the middle east – both even higher in the line thatn amlost certain.
    Sexual harrassment same. Only nuclear war goes right down to practically impossible. Are you OK so far?

    Then look at the exposure. Here it is aa bit of a judgement call. Say falling off a ladder will depend upon whether your business in painting (when exposure is daily) or perhaps just the occasional use of a ladder in an archives room (say 4 tomes/yr). Now for my scenarios you need to think what you mean by exposure ie the event can happen – how many people are then at risk. So in a nuclear war it is many many million, middle east just a few million, same with a flue epidemic, perhaps a 100,000 for whooping cough, perhaps ps many million for global warming and maybe 100,000 for sexual harassment.

    Since we are talking globally probably just abpout every singel one goes through the all the time line, but if it were just Australia or it would be different..

    Anyway you draw a line from your point of probabiity and see where it crosses the tie line. So nuclear war crosses roughtly in the middle while flu crosses practically at the bottom.

    From the cross over point you then draw a line to the consequence spot eg Nuclea war hits somewhere between 50 and 500 and flu abpve 500.

    It depends on judgement

    Gotta go

  46. Without any agriculture? Good luck with that!

    Invertebrates will thrive.

    BW might have to develop a taste for his feral millipede invaders.

  47. Observing a fair bit of Senate Estimates, I must say the the Trot Lee Rhiannon is the best of the Greens. McKim is much too earnest, Siewart to scattered, Steele-John has a pubescent beard, and SHY and the Black Wiggle are MIA.

    The worst by far is Victorian Greens Senator Janet Rice. Fair Dinkum!

  49. “Based on the South Australian Art Gallery’s current holdings?”
    Only to a small extent. We’d have to go on a spending spree. We’ve got quite a good collection of artifacts in the Museum courtesy of TGH Strehlow.

  50. Continuing from previous post
    When Annastacia Palaszczuk wan her first election in 2014, It is nothing short of astonishing & amazing. ALP flipped 37 seats & became largest party in the parliament. And, the seating premier was defeated in the process.

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