ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor

More evidence that the Barnaby Joyce saga has shut out the Coalition’s glimmer of polling sunlight at the start of the year.

The latest ReachTEL poll for Sky News is the Coalition’s worst result from that pollster this term, showing Labor with a two-party lead of 54-46, out from 52-48 at the previous poll on January 25. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 33%, Labor is up one to 37%, the Greens are up one to 11% and One Nation are down one to 7%. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead on the forced response preferred prime minister question is 53-47, down from 54-46. The poll was conducted on Thursday, the evening before Barnaby Joyce’s resignation: it found 57% thought he should indeed resign, against 32% who thought he should remain. A question on who should be Nationals leader had Joyce on 23%, Bridget McKenzie on 15%, Michael McCormack on 11%, Darren Chester on 6% and “don’t know” a formidable 40%.

UPDATE: As noted in comments, the Coalition have done well to make it to 54-46 on ReachTEL’s respondent-allocated two-party preferred result. If 2016 election preference flows are applied, the result is around 55.5-44.5.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,838 comments on “ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 34 of 37
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  3. I wouldn’t expect Barnaby to be having an impact on the polls yet (necessarily).

    There’s often a lag between events and their reflection in polling.

    In this case, many people would have been giving Barnaby a bit of the benefit of the doubt, because we had a series of allegations which had not been tested.

    Yes, we knew he had left his wife and had moved out with a pregnant staffer, but the polls suggest (well, Essential does) that these events were seen by voters as personal issues, not political ones.

    Now we have fairly credible allegations of sexual assault, with numerous people coming out in support of the accuser, Barnaby has resigned, and it is clear that the government has not handled the issue well.

    Ask people their voting intention today and there may be a shift – before last Friday, not necessarily.

  4. SK
    I must say that I did not need Tim Tams to achieve your objective. Your modus operandi seems to be a bit OTT, IMO: I suck Tim Tams therefore we… uh… can break the ministerial code of conduct.

  5. There is a very good reason for concluding climate change is a bigger risk than nuclear war. We are already experiencing climate change. It is already causing real economic losses and bringing distress to large numbers of people. Nuclear competition certainly exists, but has not brought war. If anything, wars are fought in spite of nuclear capabilities rather than because of them.

  6. bemused @ #1626 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 3:32 pm

    daretotread. @ #1578 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 3:29 pm

    —
    Bemused

    I would have more respect for your comments and you personally if you based your comments on knowledge.

    It wasn’t really necessary, but you have proven yet again, that you do not understand risk analysis.
    Try AS-4360.

    Funny thing Bemused but when I submit my clients for certification under ISO 14001, 9001 or 4801 they have not a whinge about my methodology. Better take it up with the ISO. Generally i get comments such as extraordinarily thorough and comprehensive. I suppose you do understand that Risk analysis is required in all such certifications these days. probably not.

    Better get your skates on and complain to JAZANZ.

    Out of interest bemused did you copy the standard from an employer or Library. Very naughty. It is of course an outrage that essential standards are sold fro profit by a private company. I notice this has got a bit of media coverage lately

    So many words to convey so little sense.
    Or, more correctly, nonsense.

    I have done a number of courses on Risk Management which have given me access to AS4360 and other standards. There are also publications which draw on such sources.

    Ho ho Bemused.

    What you mean is “I have never read them but I have a tertiary source of some kind that refers to them”. What a bunch of bollocks. If you had read anything at all on risk analysis or ever done a risk assessment you would know my methodology is bog standard.

    OK NOT the multiplication but on a blog like this I cannot post a matrix table and multiplication is the simplest way to get this idea across.

    The other way is to give a ranking but again without a table it makes no sense

    A tie line is ideal because it is flexible AND you can compare very very different levels of consequence eg a paper cut with nuclear holocaust, but again a bit tricky for a blog.

    In any case bemused, since you are such a bloody expert do you OWN risk assessment of my list of risks and have a clear methodology. Come on money where your mouth is. What is your preferred methodology.

    Come on accept the challenge. Dredge your memory of some half forgotten course or refer to your tertiary source.

    I remember last time we had this discussion BK I think did post some useful stuff. You on the other hand just spout abuse with no substance.

  7. Pretty well all the numbers in the three recent polls are MOEy.

    One poll does not a political death make.

    The fact that the Essential chappie feels the need to misinterpret his own poll is of psephological interest.

  10. briefly @ #1655 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 5:09 pm

    There is a very good reason for concluding climate change is a bigger risk than nuclear war. We are already experiencing climate change. It is already causing real economic losses and bringing distress to large numbers of people. Nuclear competition certainly exists, but has not brought war. If anything, wars are fought in spite of nuclear capabilities rather than because of them.

    Agreed. Risk assessment is about the chance of the risk occurring, combined with the cost of the risk if it should occur.

    The chance of global warming occurring is 100%.

    The cost of global warming varies depending on the degree of warming – it could be anywhere from billions of lives to total extinction.

    Worrying about nuclear war in these circumstances is – quite frankly – a little insane.

  12. IoM

    “I can never look at a tim tam slam the same way ever again now.”

    I’m with you there. One of the more ‘bizarre’ discussions to take place on PB.

    Being a tea drinker, I’m guessing there isn’t the same decadent delight in doing a tim tam slam, or what would be the equivalent?

  14. Player One says:
    Tuesday, February 27, 2018 at 5:17 pm

    Quite right. With climate change, we face a real existential problem. No doubt about that.

  16. Peg
    You can use tea for the Tim Tam slam.
    But you do have to be careful because the hot tea has very rapid structural impacts on the Tim Tam and you can end up with a sorry slurry in the nether regions of your cup of tea.

  17. daretotread. @ #1656 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 5:09 pm

    bemused @ #1626 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 3:32 pm

    daretotread. @ #1578 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 3:29 pm

    —
    Bemused

    I would have more respect for your comments and you personally if you based your comments on knowledge.

    It wasn’t really necessary, but you have proven yet again, that you do not understand risk analysis.
    Try AS-4360.

    Funny thing Bemused but when I submit my clients for certification under ISO 14001, 9001 or 4801 they have not a whinge about my methodology. Better take it up with the ISO. Generally i get comments such as extraordinarily thorough and comprehensive. I suppose you do understand that Risk analysis is required in all such certifications these days. probably not.

    Better get your skates on and complain to JAZANZ.

    Out of interest bemused did you copy the standard from an employer or Library. Very naughty. It is of course an outrage that essential standards are sold fro profit by a private company. I notice this has got a bit of media coverage lately

    So many words to convey so little sense.
    Or, more correctly, nonsense.

    I have done a number of courses on Risk Management which have given me access to AS4360 and other standards. There are also publications which draw on such sources.

    Ho ho Bemused.

    What you mean is “I have never read them but I have a tertiary source of some kind that refers to them”. What a bunch of bollocks. If you had read anything at all on risk analysis or ever done a risk assessment you would know my methodology is bog standard.

    OK NOT the multiplication but on a blog like this I cannot post a matrix table and multiplication is the simplest way to get this idea across.

    The other way is to give a ranking but again without a table it makes no sense

    A tie line is ideal because it is flexible AND you can compare very very different levels of consequence eg a paper cut with nuclear holocaust, but again a bit tricky for a blog.

    In any case bemused, since you are such a bloody expert do you OWN risk assessment of my list of risks and have a clear methodology. Come on money where your mouth is. What is your preferred methodology.

    Come on accept the challenge. Dredge your memory of some half forgotten course or refer to your tertiary source.

    I remember last time we had this discussion BK I think did post some useful stuff. You on the other hand just spout abuse with no substance.

    Again, so many words with so little substance.
    I said I had access to AS4360 when doing a tertiary course – over a period of 6 years.
    Outside of that I have also done a course based on AS4360, when doing Y2K work.

    All the risk management matrix does is give you a ranking so that you can focus on the risks that matter and not the trivial stuff. It does not yield numerical values that give you some sort of a precise measure of the risk. It cannot as risk is uncertain. The whole point is to identify what needs attention and then take action to reduce the risk.

  20. Humans may not enjoy the consequences of global warming but we may console ourselves with the thought that Indigenous nations in Australia’s central deserts survived quite well for tens of thousands of years. They did not not metals to do so. In times of plenty their day’s work was done by morning pitcherri time. In times of dearth, they could starve to death.

  21. Guytaur

    “Labor has Dutton on the run over conflict of interest”

    The relevant question was to the PM about his conflict of interest. He handed it over to Dutton. Dutton explained that is is public servants who assess the tenders and that neither he nor the PM is involved in such processes.

    So
    1) The conflict did not concern Dutton, and

    2) At no stage was Dutton “on the run”

  22. Psyclaw
    Dutton was in full vicious flight. He would not be wanting to repeat what he said about Shorten outside the Cowards Castle.

  24. “The date of Christmas Day (Dec 25) was stolen from the pagans; it was originally the Winter solstice.”

    ——

    What an extraordinary statement.

    The Winter Solstice has been occurring long before humans even existed. It was not “owned” by the pagans or anyone else. It will continue long after humans become extinct. Indeed until the sun burns out.

    Many cultures and religions mark such astronomical and seasonal events as significant.

  28. Boerwar @ #1648 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 5:29 pm

    KJ
    Not fair.

    Some really good “stuff” today. I have ordered some “Tim Tams” for delivery via my favourite Coles driver (they are all my favourite) on Saturday.

    The interminable PB wars rage on. The outcome can only be robotic creatures croaking “exterminate, exterminate.”

    Does anybody know where the planet Scaro really is ❓ 😈

  29. Boerwar

    Yes

    I didn’t go on to say that after he quickly spoke to the actual question about conflict of interest, as usual he went on with biffo.

  30. Speaking of green tea, I highly recommend Green Tea Kit Kats. I know at least in Sydney they can be found in Asian supermarkets.

  32. IoM

    The things you learn on PB – Green tea kit kats – i usually shop at a local asian grocery shop every week….will look out for this product.

  37. Bemused
    https://www.dowellsolutions.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/Risk-Score-Calculator.pdf

    Now using this link which referes to seral methods of risk calculation – inc the 5×5 matix i mentioned

    Now just for interest I have rougly used the tie line (middle one) to rescore all my others.

    this is what I cam up with. The only surrise was whooping cough which went up.

    But here goes

    Middle east war got a 500
    Global warming got a 200
    Whooping ough got a 100
    Nycear war about 50
    Flue epidemic 30
    Sexual harrassment 10-20.

    Now you use the same tool and see what YOU come up with. Happy to hear your views. Alternatively on the 5×5 matrix all six of my scenarios would score an H for high. Do it yourself.

  38. It’s an election year, after all.

    For those interested in vic educational system:

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-27/vce-students-to-face-minimum-literacy-numeracy-standards/9489278

    Victorian students could face another test in order to finish secondary school, with the State Government considering introducing minimum standards for literacy and numeracy.

    Education Minister James Merlino has asked the Victorian Curriculum and Assessment Authority (VCAA) to review the two-year program for students in years 11 and 12, known as VCE.

    It will be asked to look at how to keep students engaged through to year 12, and whether to introduce minimum standards for literacy and numeracy.

    The Government said it was the first shake-up of VCE in 30 years and a review was timely.

    :::
    Is this a good idea?

  39. Peg – I know in Sydney Tongli Supermarkets (asian store) carries the green tea kit kats. Not sure where you are based but if its more a fruit/veg place you go to you may be not as lucky.

  42. A nuclear war would most likely wipe out most (but not all humans) but leave most other species intact.
    A global warming extinction over 6-7 degrees would probably knock off 90%+ of all life on earth.
    I would rather have neither but if i had to choose then give me the nuclear one.

  44. BW
    I didnt make up the rules. And it wasnt me doing the chasing and conniving.

    This all started with me explaining that my career as a world famous globetrotting quantum physicist was curtailed by someone teaching me Tim Tam Slams at the end of first year. I am the innocent victim in all this.

  46. booleanbach @ #1692 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 5:52 pm

    A nuclear war would most likely wipe out most (but not all humans) but leave most other species intact.

    A nuclear war is “very unlikely” to wipe out humanity – see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust#Likelihood_of_complete_human_extinction

    Many scholars have posited that a global thermonuclear war with Cold War-era stockpiles, or even with the current smaller stockpiles, may lead to human extinction. This position was bolstered when nuclear winter was first conceptualized and modelled in 1983. However, models from the past decade consider total extinction very unlikely, and suggest parts of the world would remain habitable.

    Global warming is far more likely to do so. The only question is whether 5 degrees would be enough to do it, or if it would take 6 degrees. Personally, I don’t really want to find out 🙁

  49. If you combine global warming with a nuclear war they should cancel each other out temperature-wise. So there’s nothing to worry about as long as we get both.
    You know it makes sense.

  50. Peg………the passion with the talk about Tim Tams is that they actually make more sense and have more substance than the bloody political scene does at the moment. We are all tired of talk of beetroots and thus Tim Tams are a cheery alternative.

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