ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor

More evidence that the Barnaby Joyce saga has shut out the Coalition’s glimmer of polling sunlight at the start of the year.

The latest ReachTEL poll for Sky News is the Coalition’s worst result from that pollster this term, showing Labor with a two-party lead of 54-46, out from 52-48 at the previous poll on January 25. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 33%, Labor is up one to 37%, the Greens are up one to 11% and One Nation are down one to 7%. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead on the forced response preferred prime minister question is 53-47, down from 54-46. The poll was conducted on Thursday, the evening before Barnaby Joyce’s resignation: it found 57% thought he should indeed resign, against 32% who thought he should remain. A question on who should be Nationals leader had Joyce on 23%, Bridget McKenzie on 15%, Michael McCormack on 11%, Darren Chester on 6% and “don’t know” a formidable 40%.

UPDATE: As noted in comments, the Coalition have done well to make it to 54-46 on ReachTEL’s respondent-allocated two-party preferred result. If 2016 election preference flows are applied, the result is around 55.5-44.5.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,838 comments on “ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Terrible road conditions and bad road smashes being reported informally. I trust that all ACT and regional Bludgers have come through more or less intact.

  2. In the meantime, Luci, rant by all means. Blame Labor. You will not be alone. You will have the entire LNP, the Corey’s, ON and the Shooters & Fishers for company.

  3. Greensborough Growler says: Sunday, February 25, 2018 at 3:58 pm

    Mckenzie has issues to do with travel rorts to deal with. She also lives in Elwood a seaside suburb of Melbourne. So, her credentials as understanding and supporting the urban battlers are entirely fake.

    ****************************************************************

    …….. and isn’t she some sort of 21st Century Gun Toting Annie Oakley ???????

    McKenzie believes Australian gun owners are too often treated like “terrorists” and “rednecks” by those in the big cities who have never taken an interest in their way of life.

    “There’s a lot of snobbery and elitism that I find offensive and I really want to challenge it.”

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/meet-bridget-mckenzie-the-turnbull-government-senator-out-to-change-your-mind-about-guns-20151025-gkhubu.html

  4. May I begin with some quotes from Mark Butler’s speech?

    Just last Friday – while the nation was continuing to debate the merits of Adani building a mine in a brand new thermal coal basin in Queensland – the Australian published an article headed ‘South32 dumps thermal coal, citing uncertainty and climate change’. Matt Chambers wrote that the BHP spin off is getting out of thermal coal ‘because it is becoming less attractive to investors, has an uncertain future that does not support long-term investment and because the world needs to decarbonise’.

    In late 2016, Blackrock – the world’s largest asset manager, with almost $5 trillion US under management – issued a memo ‘Adapting Portfolios to Climate Change’ – in it, they advised subscribers that ‘investors can no longer ignore climate change. Some may question the science behind it, but all are faced with a swelling tide of climate-related regulations and technological disruption’. The leading ratings agency, Standard and Poors, reported as early as 2014 that climate change would soon start to place downward pressure on the credit ratings of nation states due to the economic and financial impacts. And, in 2016, the IMF reported that ‘climate change is expected to significantly impact the global economy in the coming decades’, while the World Bank warned that ‘climate change is a threat to [its] core mission’.

    Here in Australia, APRA has recently entered the climate debate – not without some trepidation I imagine, given the toxic nature of the Australian debate. Geoff Summerhayes, who has taken the lead for APRA, said a couple of months ago ‘climate change and – here’s the crucial bit – society’s responses to it are starting to affect the global economy’.

  5. A question on who should be Nationals leader had Joyce on 23%, Bridget McKenzie on 15%, Michael McCormack on 11%, Darren Chester on 6% and “don’t know” a formidable 40%.

    No love for Darren Chester, perhaps one of the more reasonable and competent Nats MPs.

  7. Re-post from last thread:

    Katherine Murphy @murpharoo . How Ostrayan can you get?

    Y’all know I’ve had a beef with Katherine Murphy, aka @murpharoo, since she decided, during the Gillard years, that ‘colour and movement’ was all that mattered in politics, and she was not hesitant to sink the boot into Australia’s first female PM, Julia Gillard.

    Fast forward. After her defection to The Guardian, and after a lot of criticism of her reporting, Katherine Murphy has done so many mea culpas for not reporting the “facts” but rather how she perceived them, has become de rigueur in her articles.

    Her justification for not reporting the BJoyce affair was pretty pathetic. She, and a photographer, were apparently assigned a duty – to go to New England and report on the suspected BJoyce affair. One presumes the dispatcher was Lenore Taylor.

    She comes back, and reports “Nothing to see here.”

    Fair enough. Katherine, being a New Englander herself, apparently, decided there was nothing to the rumour of an extramarital affair, because ‘Fair Dinkum Accountant’ Barnaby said so.

    So, then, after the affair is confirmed and reported by various other outlets, out comes the mea culpa from Murphy, wtte, “despite most people thinking the CPG is a hive mind, nothing could be further from the truth. I didn’t even know about the affair. And when I confronted him, he said “No.” So I couldn’t report anything. Obviously the photographer thought the same, or why mention him/her.

    Fast Forward Again. Well, as it turns out, Murpharoo had a big story on her hands. Apparently, Barnaby Joyce, the Deputy PM of Australia, in the prime of his political career, was ‘pensive, didn’t want to be there, and talked about succession’.

    And in true Murpharoo fashion, completely missed the story under her nose.

    And in true Murpharoo fashion, reports this as a round-up of yet another mea culpa in the making.

    FFS girl, get your act together.

  8. From WBowe’s text:

    ‘A question on who should be Nationals leader had Joyce on 23%, Bridget McKenzie on 15%, Michael McCormack on 11%, Darren Chester on 6% and “don’t know” a formidable 40%.’

    I am not sure that we can’t take much from this set of figures. I would have liked the ‘Don’t know’ question extended to ‘Don’t know and don’t care’. That would have ramped the 40% considerably.

    If the whole electorate were asked the same question on who should be the Greens leader or the PHON leader the same sort of pattern of response would, presumably, be forthcoming.

    Around 96% of the electorate don’t vote for the nationals, around 92% of the electorate don’t vote for the PHON and around 90% of the electorate don’t vote for the Greens.

    I am guessing that ‘Don’t know and don’t care’ on the leadership question would be very popular in each case.

  10. From previous thread.

    Boerwar says:
    Sunday, February 25, 2018 at 4:00 pm
    Q
    It does but I suspect that there are good reasons not to use last election preferences as a guide.

    Disagree. If PHON were polling at 10%+ I would agree they would be soaking up the L-NP vote that would be likely to return in preferences. At 7% (and falling) I don’t think that is so likely.

    Also, from the results of the last election, Reachtel has a L-NP lean. Reachtel was probably the reason (but I don’t know for sure) the aggregations by WB and KB overestimated the L-NP seat projection.

    EDIT: I’ll stick to ALP 55.5% to 44.5% 🙂

  11. C
    All over bar the shouting, the insurance fights, the repairs, and the mopping up. As long as no-one was hurt, we should be fine.
    I am not sure where our rough sleepers went and am hoping that they found emergency shelter.

  12. WB,

    Question on the previous thread posted:

    Been busy today, so sorry if someone else already calculated this.

    Using the last election preference flows with the Reachtel primaries gives a TPP result of…

    ALP 55.5% L-NP 44.5%

    Just wondering if you can confirm his calculations?

  13. Boerwar says:
    Sunday, February 25, 2018 at 4:10 pm
    From WBowe’s text:

    ‘A question on who should be Nationals leader had Joyce on 23%, Bridget McKenzie on 15%, Michael McCormack on 11%, Darren Chester on 6% and “don’t know” a formidable 40%.’

    The choice that would have attracted 80% agreement would have been “Don’t Know and Don’t Care”

  14. Q
    I am happy to leave the issue of whether to use last election’s preferences or respondent preferences to gurus like William.

  15. Luci,

    Pray tell, how am I mistaken about Labor’s stance on the Adani mine? Publicly, they continue to use fence-sitting weaselwords. This, despite there being plenty of evidence that the project is stinker on every level you can think of. Are you in support of the Adani mine proceeding? If not, then how do you support Labor’s public position on it?

    Also, from the previous thread is my response to this from you:

    Luci @ #2135 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 2:56 pm

    C@tmomma @ #2121 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 2:46 pm

    Luci,
    It’s no wonder Pegasus is lauding your posts. They are a confection and a fantasy created wrt to the Labor Party’s positions and policies.

    Can you give me a specific example of where I am wrong? Are you claiming that an Adani rep didn’t state in 2015 that there’d be fewer than 1500 jobs? Evidence here: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-06/adani-jobs-accc-legal-case-chris-mccoomb/9226560 Or that Labor never said there were 10,000 jobs? http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-05-18/queensland-government-gives-adani-royalties-holiday/8536560 Can you explain how, when there is abundance of evidence that this project is a terrible idea, Labor still any good reason to sit on the fence about it?

    Yeah, yeah, whatever. Suffice to say that your googling of a series of non-contemporaneous positions that Labor used to hold, proves exactly three fifths of bugger all, quite frankly.

    Now, if you are really interested about knowing the truth of where the federal Labor Party stands on Thermal Coal Mining, Coking Coal Mining, Climate Change policies, Adani and the global perspective wrt all these things, then I recommend you read Mark Butler’s speech to The Sydney Institute, which he gave last week on February 19th, 2018:

    https://markbutler.net.au/news/speeches/managing-climate-related-financial-risk-lessons-from-adani/

    Then get back to me if you still think Labor are gung ho for Adani. Or ‘fencesitting’ their position. I dare you to say it again after reading that speech. With examples.

  18. kezza2 @ #7 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 4:09 pm

    Re-post from last thread:

    Katherine Murphy @murpharoo . How Ostrayan can you get?

    Y’all know I’ve had a beef with Katherine Murphy, aka @murpharoo, since she decided, during the Gillard years, that ‘colour and movement’ was all that mattered in politics, and she was not hesitant to sink the boot into Australia’s first female PM, Julia Gillard.

    Fast forward. After her defection to The Guardian, and after a lot of criticism of her reporting, Katherine Murphy has done so many mea culpas for not reporting the “facts” but rather how she perceived them, has become de rigueur in her articles.

    Her justification for not reporting the BJoyce affair was pretty pathetic. She, and a photographer, were apparently assigned a duty – to go to New England and report on the suspected BJoyce affair. One presumes the dispatcher was Lenore Taylor.

    She comes back, and reports “Nothing to see here.”

    Fair enough. Katherine, being a New Englander herself, apparently, decided there was nothing to the rumour of an extramarital affair, because ‘Fair Dinkum Accountant’ Barnaby said so.

    So, then, after the affair is confirmed and reported by various other outlets, out comes the mea culpa from Murphy, wtte, “despite most people thinking the CPG is a hive mind, nothing could be further from the truth. I didn’t even know about the affair. And when I confronted him, he said “No.” So I couldn’t report anything. Obviously the photographer thought the same, or why mention him/her.

    Fast Forward Again. Well, as it turns out, Murpharoo had a big story on her hands. Apparently, Barnaby Joyce, the Deputy PM of Australia, in the prime of his political career, was ‘pensive, didn’t want to be there, and talked about succession’.

    And in true Murpharoo fashion, completely missed the story under her nose.

    And in true Murpharoo fashion, reports this as a round-up of yet another mea culpa in the making.

    FFS girl, get your act together.

    And re-posting my response:

    An excellent summary of Murphy’s somewhat less than illustrious career. If the answer wasn’t so bloody obvious, you’d wonder how on earth she manages to keep her position.

  23. William
    Are you splitting the difference between last election and respondent preferences for Reachtel’s contribution to Bludger Track?

  24. The ugly nature of @ person exposed at 412pm. If you disagree with the @ person’s myopic view your a liar and a fantasist.

  26. BW, Given the disaster of this government I think any ‘fiddling’ that improves L-NP numbers is just lipstick on a pig. Also, it seems to be Reachtel and Yougov respondent allocation that inspires the fiddle. Going on the last election (again), Essential and Newspoll were the most accurate.

  27. More from Mark Butler’s speech, for those who don’t get around to reading it, just to be sure that it’s out there what Labor’s position truly is:

    Australian governments – through their resources agencies – have also been consistently bullish about the outlook for thermal coal exports. Labor’s Energy White Paper of 2012 contained an extensive discussion of the different IEA scenarios for energy and resources demand over coming decades, including the IEA’s two degree scenario. But it also forecast that ‘a large expansion in thermal coal exports is expected to increase production by an average of 2.8% per annum’ – over two decades. Coal exports (of coking and thermal coal) were ‘expected to grow strongly’ to between 530 and 690 million tonnes by 2025. And the Paper said pointedly that ‘increasing demand has meant that an entirely new coal precinct has opened up in Queensland’s Galilee Basin’.

    The reality today is quite different. Total coal exports are running at around 390 million tonnes –about half of which are thermal coal – and volumes have been flat for several years now. The IEA’s 2017 Outlook points out how utterly exceptional the Galilee Basin development is globally. It describes the Adani Carmichael mine as the only significant export-oriented greenfields project – that is, it’s in a new thermal coal basin – on the face of the planet. There’s no question that the case made a decade ago for opening up thatnew thermal coal basin rested on demand projections that are fundamentally inconsistent with current market trends and the more probable scenarios for future global demand….

    There’s clearly a great deal of frustration in Queensland about the constant delays and debate about the Adani project, and whether the promised jobs will ever really happen. In a region that’s been hit hard by the end of the mining boom, job opportunities are crucially important. Bill Shorten isn’t willing to wait on Adani’s continual delays with this project – delays that will likely come to nought anyway. He’s busy talking to the Queensland Government and local communities about other job plans. And he’s putting concrete announcements before the people of Central and North Queensland as we speak – jobs that we guarantee will happen.

    Now, I and most commentators might be wrong about all that – Adani’s project might notionally go ahead if the Turnbull Government finds some way of throwing a heap of taxpayer money at it. But, the industry itself has been clear that any coal mined from the Galilee to chase a declining seaborne market would simply displace coal and jobs in existing coal regions, like the Hunter Valley – advice contained in a detailed report from the well-known coal industry analysts, Wood Mackenzie. For the life of me, I can’t see how that prospect is in the national interest.

    Sheesh! The amount of trouble you have to go to to convince Greens voters! You’d think they would be the most comprehensively informed of all!

  28. BW, I’m using ReachTEL and Ipsos numbers to extract an implied One Nation preference flow and converting it into a trend measure, based on the assumption that Greens and others preferences are flowing as they did before, and whatever change is evident is down to One Nation.

  29. Question @ #26 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 4:18 pm

    BW, Given the disaster of this government I think any ‘fiddling’ that improves L-NP numbers is just lipstick on a pig. Also, it seems to be Reachtel and Yougov respondent allocation that inspires the fiddle. Going on the last election (again), Essential and Newspoll were the most accurate.

    This poll is clearly influenced by the Joyce matter. It will be interesting to see how much of the shift to Labor sticks once the issue wanes.

  30. I think the issue is the Government doesn’t seem to be able to go 90 days without a problem blowing up. If it can’t or won’t stabilise then the ALP will (sadly) win by default.

    It does seem to be eerily similar to the Gillardine period of government. The logical extension of which will be that a Shorten government will be spectacularly unsuccessful a la Abbot.

    Sad for the country.

  31. All these pics are what might called our neighbourhood, including our regular walking and shopping places.

    The interesting one is where the cars are flooded. Just to the left of the image is a flood berm designed to prevent Sullivan’s Creek from reaching the area. I am guessing that the berm may actually have stopped the flash flooding from draining out of the area.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-25/heavy-rain-wreaks-havoc-in-canberra/9482470

  33. Greensborough Growler says:
    Sunday, February 25, 2018 at 4:23 pm
    Question @ #26 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 4:18 pm

    This poll is clearly influenced by the Joyce matter. It will be interesting to see how much of the shift to Labor sticks once the issue wanes.

    Agree GG, mid-term polls are fickle and the best the ALP usually do is about 53%. However, the polling toward the election will fix that. Trying to fix that now might simply create a skew that will distort later poll interpretations.

  35. GG
    In terms of the Joyce Affair having an immediate impact on the polling, I suspect you are right. My reasoning is that whereas most people HAD switched off and were no longer listening, Joyce and Turnbull managed to switch them on temporarily.
    I had thought that Turnbull had a good-ish last month to 2017, had campaigned assiduously over the Christmas break, is spending a motsa of taxpayer money on government ads (quality schools, etc, etc, etc), had probably regained a bit of lost ground, but has had a significant reverse over the past fortnight.
    My view, FWIW, is that Turnbull has once again met community expectations: if a stuff-up is possible, the Turnbull Government will find a way to stuff things up.

  36. Edwina StJohn @ #30 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 4:23 pm

    I think the issue is the Government doesn’t seem to be able to go 90 days without a problem blowing up. If it can’t or won’t stabilise then the ALP will (sadly) win by default.

    It does seem to be eerily similar to the Gillardine period of government. The logical extension of which will be that a Shorten government will be spectacularly unsuccessful a la Abbot.

    Sad for the country.

    Given the government have lost 27 Newspolls in a row, it’s more like they can’t go a cycle without another crash of the Fantastically Marvellous Government Machine having another accident.

  37. Just heard through the grapevine that Boerwar is writing a book about the Greens entitled “Greens Don’t Count, Do They?”
    Here are the chapter headings:
    1 : A Brief History of the Greens: From Slime to Forests and Back Again
    2: Bob Brown and The Quest for Power
    3: How Bob’s Precious Went Down the Drain
    4: Climbing Mount Doom with Sarah Hanson Young
    5: Don’t Mention the Environment, It Can Only Cause Trouble
    6: How Adani Will Go Away Naturally
    7: Weak Climate Proposals Always Work Best
    8: Why the Greens Will Never Have Any Influence
    9: Why the Greens Will Never Have Any Influence Pt2
    10: Kale and Avocado: Symbols of Repression

  39. From previous thread:
    Actually – the true definition of Overton’s Window exemplifies what I previously stated.

    I think it was Boerwar above who challenged you (no potato) above and I agree with his assessment here.

    Also the reactionary rump of the Liberals/Nationals DO provide fodder for fear campaigns, as Turnbull’s dilemma proves (Turnbull is stymied by the fear of what the rump will unleash). ON and Greens, the Oz Conservatives are all generally unpalatable to the bulk of electors, even if they might agree with single issues.

    While I sympathise with a lot of Green’s policy stands, their methods are impractical and their demands for immediate change do not take into account the necessity of process (as I stated in a previous post). Extreme parties have no real clout because they ignore the consequences of sudden or extreme changes of direction.

    Click to EditRequest Deletion (5 minutes and 58 seconds)

  40. Trog Sorrenson @ #37 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 4:30 pm

    Just heard through the grapevine that Boerwar is writing a book about the Greens entitled “Greens Don’t Count, Do They?”
    Here are the chapter headings:
    1 : A Brief History of the Greens: From Slime to Forests and Back Again
    2: Bob Brown and The Quest for Power
    3: How Bob’s Precious Went Down the Drain
    4: Climbing Mount Doom with Sarah Hanson Young
    5: Don’t Mention the Environment, It Can Only Cause Trouble
    6: How Adani Will Go Away Naturally
    7: Weak Climate Proposals Always Work Best
    8: Why the Greens Will Never Have Any Influence
    9: Why the Greens Will Never Have Any Influence Pt2
    10: Kale and Avocado: Symbols of Repression

    His publishers have a terrific strategy. It has a special Disc of BW singing Greens Anthems. It’s 2 hours of “Oh Lordy Kumbayah”!

  41. Oh GG 4.30pm – I sometimes think you get most upset when we are in agreement!

    Still Batman will be enjoyable. Will Feeney be declared anti-party as part of the fallout?

  42. Player One @ #34 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 4:30 pm

    C@tmomma @ #27 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 4:22 pm

    Sheesh! The amount of trouble you have to go to to convince Greens voters! You’d think they would be the most comprehensively informed of all!

    Greens will never take ‘yes’ for an answer!

    Do you think The Greens have undertaken the level of research that Mark Butler and Labor have when it comes to the Coal Market and how it intersects with Climate Change, our commitments to the Paris Accord and how the Galillee basin Thermal Coal projects, including Adani, factor into that? Plus what is the likely scenario that synthesises all that into a coherent policy? I think the answer to that is no. Instead they go for the cheap trick, ‘Stop Adani’, and think they can hoodwink everyone with it.

  43. Greensborough Growler @ #40 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 4:34 pm

    Trog Sorrenson @ #37 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 4:30 pm

    Just heard through the grapevine that Boerwar is writing a book about the Greens entitled “Greens Don’t Count, Do They?”
    Here are the chapter headings:
    1 : A Brief History of the Greens: From Slime to Forests and Back Again
    2: Bob Brown and The Quest for Power
    3: How Bob’s Precious Went Down the Drain
    4: Climbing Mount Doom with Sarah Hanson Young
    5: Don’t Mention the Environment, It Can Only Cause Trouble
    6: How Adani Will Go Away Naturally
    7: Weak Climate Proposals Always Work Best
    8: Why the Greens Will Never Have Any Influence
    9: Why the Greens Will Never Have Any Influence Pt2
    10: Kale and Avocado: Symbols of Repression

    His publishers have a terrific strategy. It has a special Disc of BW singing Greens Anthems. It’s 2 hours of “Oh Lordy Kumbayah”!

    Can I pre-order an autographed copy? It’s guaranteed to become a collector’s item once the Greens win office … oh, wait … 🙁

  44. Turnbull’s character failures are well-known. They were known very well to Coalition ministers when they chose Turnbull over Abbott. They should have known better.
    While Turnbull may try to change the ways he presents, Turnbull’s character failures have been remarkably consistent over a long period of time:
    1. An utter inability to lead a team or work in a team.
    2. A lack of core beliefs and values.
    3. Arrogance.
    4. Atrocious political judgement.
    5. Out of touch with anyone who is not a gouging business person.
    6. A large capacity for inter-personal treachery. Joyce is not the first and he will not be the last to be sacrificed by Turnbull.
    7. A considerable capacity to get personally very nasty in face-to-face confrontations.

    The Coalition’s persistent attempts to do a reset for Turnbull are analagous to attempts by Trump’s staff to get some order and sanity into the Trump Administration.

    In both cases they are invariably flummoxed by deep-seated character flaws.

  46. Luci and others in the argument

    I don’t think it’s fair to assume that anything said by a State leader represents the Federal policies. They are reacting to specific local problems.

  47. Thats funny Boerwar – most of those charges can be levelled at Shorten.

    How many splits in Victorian Labor has he been a protagonist in over 20 years?

  48. C@tmomma @ #42 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 4:36 pm

    Do you think The Greens have undertaken the level of research that Mark Butler and Labor have when it comes to the Coal Market and how it intersects with Climate Change, our commitments to the Paris Accord and how the Galillee basin Thermal Coal projects, including Adani, factor into that? Plus what is the likely scenario that synthesises all that into a coherent policy? I think the answer to that is no. Instead they go for the cheap trick, ‘Stop Adani’, and think they can hoodwink everyone with it.

    I agree. Far from being a true environmental party or a party of government, the Greens have demonstrated they are still simply a protest party for people too lazy to think for themselves.

  49. Question @ #33 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 4:29 pm

    Greensborough Growler says:
    Sunday, February 25, 2018 at 4:23 pm
    Question @ #26 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 4:18 pm

    This poll is clearly influenced by the Joyce matter. It will be interesting to see how much of the shift to Labor sticks once the issue wanes.

    Agree GG, mid-term polls are fickle and the best the ALP usually do is about 53%. However, the polling toward the election will fix that. Trying to fix that now might simply create a skew that will distort later poll interpretations.

    As ESJ comments, this Government can’t seem to avoid regular major political cock ups. Past performance is usually the best indicator of future performance. So, with the 30 Newspoll thingy hovering, Joyce, Abbott and various disgruntled ex Ministers on the backbench shit stirring, the spectre of Christennsen advocating the Nats leave the coalition and the real possibility that Labor will get a morale boost by retaining Batman, does not augur well for Turnbull or the government.

  50. Edwina StJohn says:
    Sunday, February 25, 2018 at 4:23 pm
    I think the issue is the Government doesn’t seem to be able to go 90 days without a problem blowing up. If it can’t or won’t stabilise then the ALP will (sadly) win by default.

    It does seem to be eerily similar to the Gillardine period of government. The logical extension of which will be that a Shorten government will be spectacularly unsuccessful a la Abbot.

    Sad for the country.

    Shorten does have policy rather than bombastic 3 word slogans to point at, but I agree with the first half of your observation.

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