BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor

Following Newspoll, the latest poll aggregate reading washes away the Coalition’s gains from the earlier polling since New Year.

This week’s Newspoll result had added 0.3% to Labor’s two-party reading on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, and added one seat to their national on the seat projection, the gain being in South Australia. The biggest change on the primary vote is an improvement for One Nation, who reversed a weakening trend over the past few months with the latest poll. Newspoll also recorded a weakening in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, but evidently the aggregate had this priced in already, as the trend results show little changed on last week. As always, full results on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,221 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor”

  1. g

    I was just saying to OH that building sites around here were going to be an absolute shambles.

    That truck is just down the road… uh, is just downstream from us.

  2. There is now a shitfight about who undermined a sexual harrassment complainant by leaking her details.
    The Nationals are saying it was not them. Which I would believe because the Nationals always tell the truth.
    The Liberals are Mum. Which I would believe because they do believe in motherhood as long as it involves giving more money to the rich.
    It is not in Labor’s political interest so it wasn’t them.
    PHON are all over the shop on sexual harrassment.
    But, but, but… the Greens have yet to issue a denial.

  3. Is Bridget McKenzie, ex PE teacher and PvO’s cynosure, for a brief while the Acting Deputy Prime Minister of Australia?
    She is the Acting Leader of the Nationals.
    What?
    Who?

  4. BW

    All I can say is I am glad I am not in Canberra right now and best of luck to its residents.

    Of course as a Sydneysider I know that means we might get that flooding too just a bit later.

    Oh and appalling lack of news coverage from the ABC on their “news” channel.

    Not seen one story on the flooding yet.

  5. Probyn has always published with a highly pro Tory slant, but up to date has had sufficient of the instinct of self preservation not to be too offensive or patently ridiculous in his soliloquys.

    Harmless, impotent, and best ignored.

  6. Someone suggests budget cuts caused this. Nevah!

    Behrouz Boochani‏ @BehrouzBoochani · Feb 22

    More refugees sent back from Port Moresby hospital to Manus. The new prison camps Hillside and West Haus are too crowded and there is not room for everyone. We don’t know what is behind this transferring of refugees between Port Moresby and Manus.

  7. dave @ #2052 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 12:40 pm

    Your AFR Extension doesn’t seem to be functioning as previously.

    AFR seem to have a more effective paywall on just some articles ?

    This is an example where the extension doesn’t work, for me anyway –

    http://www.afr.com/news/donald-trump-backs-joint-naval-exercises-in-south-china-sea-20180223-h0wkwc

    Yes, it looks like they’ve taken a marginally better approach on that page (removing the article text instead of just hiding it). But they’re still removing it with a client-side script, so still fixable.

    Next version should address their latest tweak.

  8. Fess

    Yes. But there is a confluence of things happening at once.
    I doubt they want to be associated with a corrupt organisation that looks like being exposed

  9. philiplarkin: Just spotted a cat on someone’s porch, miaowing to be let in. Without thinking, I walked up to the door, rang the bell, nodded to the cat and left. It was only I rounded the corner I realised what I’d done as I heard the owner shouting FUCK ME SARAH THE CAT JUST RANG THE DOORBELL

  10. Just watched what was a very good Insiders program thismorning.

    Bill Shortens pro-coal candidate in Capricornia makes Bill look a master of communication skills.

    😆

  11. #Weatheron PB: Canberra has had nearly 70mm of rain since 8:00PM last night, about 2.75″. That’s well over a month’s worth. Some suburbs have had a lot more.

  12. ALP Jane Garrett on whether she will run for Melbourne Lord Mayor:

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/garrett-to-decide-on-run-for-melbourne-lord-mayor-20180225-p4z1nb.html

    I’m hoping later this week I’ll be able to say,” Ms Garrett said on 3AW on Sunday.

    Among that “due diligence” is the by-election issue for her marginal inner- Melbourne seat of Brunswick months before November’s state election.

    ::::
    Ms Garrett will not be recontesting Brunswick, a seat under threat from the Greens, after her failed bid to move to a safer upper house seat.

  13. Confessions @ #1860 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 7:39 am

    At least they made the distinction between coking & steaming coal on Insiders.

    And it showed that press gallery journalists are capable of taking in substantive issues instead of focusing on the froth and bubbles.

    Why they don’t demonstrate this more often is a question for the ages.

    I’ve got a part answer to that question.

    A few years back I was travelling in NZ and was drinking with a journalist. Uninhibited after a few drinks, I asked him WTTE “why do journalists publish so much rubbish?”.

    His answer was WTTE “you can spend weeks/months working on a hard-hitting story which is of enormous significance and nobody watches or even cares, whereas you can spend few hours working on some overblown rubbish and get top ratings for it”.

  14. With Labor so openly promoting coal it’s clear now that if the future of your childrens environment is important to you, vote for the Greens Party. If enough people do that your children and grandchildren have a chance.

    Lib-Lab: pro coal

    Greens: anti coal.

  15. Vic:

    The NRA brand is definitely diminished. They weren’t helped by the woman they sent to the town hall though. She came over as cold as hell, unsympathetic, and hectoring the Sheriff. Not the demeanour to deploy in that situation and it showed in the audience reaction to her.

  16. That Probyn piece has the word “Analysis” emblazoned across the top. Contrast to Alberici’s piece, this one has zero factual evidences or analysis and is pure opinion

  17. I recall in the 1970’s after very heavy rain looking from Curtin to a road where cars were washed away and people lost their lives

    So heavy rain and flooding is not unknown in Canberra

  18. Lovey
    Swanny kept quoting Reserve bank ( or whoever it is that does the stuff) predictions. HoJo and Scrott have followed suit. The “heroic” predictions re growth in revenue/wages etc etc have been no more accurate than a lemur with a Ouija board.

  19. “philiplarkin: Just spotted a cat on someone’s porch, miaowing to be let in. Without thinking, I walked up to the door, rang the bell, nodded to the cat and left. It was only I rounded the corner I realised what I’d done as I heard the owner shouting FUCK ME SARAH THE CAT JUST RANG THE DOORBELL”

    There’s got to be a YouTube cat video in that.

  20. Player One @ #1861 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 7:40 am

    guytaur @ #1828 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 10:15 am

    Instead Labor will be running nationally using the Renewables are a job creator highlighting what a Labor government has done in actual job creation and actual power price reductions.

    Unfortunately, neither of these things are true. If Labor runs on this platform they will be (rightly) called out on it. Check out the power prices in SA – not only the most expensive in the NEM, but rising the fastest (apart from a one-off effect in Victoria from the Hazelwood closure):

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-07/power-prices-off-the-chart/8687480

    We certainly need to stop burning coal ASAP, but we also need to stop perpetuating the myth that we can do this and lower prices at the same time. If you really want to do something about electricity prices, a national gas reservation policy is the right answer in the short term.

    There are some myths of your own in there P1.

    By far the largest component of our electricity bills are network charges, followed by the cost of having power plants which run a few dozen hours per year to ensure that we can use as much power as we want, whenever we want, without interruption.

    If we would accept a power system that was, say, 99.8% reliable as opposed to 99.9999% reliable, and we were prepared to engage in Demand Side Management we could knock somewhere near 50% off our electricity bills.

  21. Confessions @ #2081 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 2:08 pm

    Vic:

    The NRA brand is definitely diminished. They weren’t helped by the woman they sent to the town hall though. She came over as cold as hell, unsympathetic, and hectoring the Sheriff. Not the demeanour to deploy in that situation and it showed in the audience reaction to her.

    You mean, the NRA’s Cruella De Ville, Dana Loesch?

  22. grimace says:

    Sunday, February 25, 2018 at 2:07 pm

    His answer was WTTE “you can spend weeks/months working on a hard-hitting story which is of enormous significance and nobody watches or even cares, whereas you can spend few hours working on some overblown rubbish and get top ratings for it”.

    *****************************************************

    I watched “The Post” the other night based upon the Washington Post’s decision to print the secret Vietnam papers notoriously leaked by former military analyst Daniel Ellsberg. It was slow moving and devoid of any theatrics but the message at the end of ‘freedom of the press’ rings as true today as then – and shows why the media is despised by despots like Trump and is thus essential viewing for anyone wanting to better understand today’s shambolic and anti-democracy attacks on the media trying to get the truth out.

  23. Now who do you think wins this pre-recorded debate?

    Champion of the working class Ged? Or champion of the petit bourgeoisie Alex? No spoilers.

  24. Boerwar @ #1866 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 7:43 am

    g
    Tosh. Weatheril has not won a majority of the vote in any of the last three state elections.
    He is only premier by virtue of a significant maldistribution of the vote.

    The SA vote isn’t’ maldistributed and overall TPP is irrelevant in our system of forming government.

    The L/NP vote while high, is geographically concentrated, making it very difficult for them to win Government in a Parliament where you have single member electorates which are not gerrymandered.

    The Labor Party keep winning in SA because they run on a platform which is attractive to the majority of voters in the majority of seats in SA.

    If the L/NP, or any other party wish to win government then it is up to them to run on a platform which wins them a majority of seats. It’s not up to the election commission or anyone else to adjust seat boundaries to make it easier for any party or participant to win.

  25. C

    I have issues with the Greens Party.

    I just don’t air them on PB but do in branch meetings and with state hq.

    It wouldn’t matter what I post here, you will always find some petty and trivial perceived slight, etc to spew forth another wild ott personalised rant at me and other Greens members and supporters who infrequently post on PB.

  26. Privatise the profits and socialise the losses isn’t working out now for the White Shoe Brigade in Queensland now that Labor are in power:

    Residents ‘living in limbo’ with battles over finances, marina

    Port Hinchinbrook was controversial, even before it was built.

    The original developers pulled out of the project in the late 1980s, leaving the site partly cleared but undeveloped.

    Tourism heavyweight Keith Williams eventually took over despite environmental opposition, but the Williams Corporation went into administration in 2013.

    http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/port-hinchinbrook-property-prices-plunge-as-residents-beg-queensland-government-for-help/527553

  27. phoenixRED

    Unfortunately it depends who owns the press. WaPo during Dubya Shrub Time may as well been the WH press office. They did some Stirling work sliming Obama pre election.But in the 70s conservatives apparently called it Pravda on the Potomac.

    Today it is owned by Jeff Bezos who also has a US$ 600,000,000 contract with the CIA. Small bickies for Jeff but still Hmmmm?

  28. Grimace

    Up until a couple of weeks ago, the SA Electoral Commission did have to adjust its seats to ensure the party that won the majority of the TPP in the previous election would have won the majority of seats. That piece of legislation however has since been removed after it was first introduced in (1992??).

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