BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor

Following Newspoll, the latest poll aggregate reading washes away the Coalition’s gains from the earlier polling since New Year.

This week’s Newspoll result had added 0.3% to Labor’s two-party reading on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, and added one seat to their national on the seat projection, the gain being in South Australia. The biggest change on the primary vote is an improvement for One Nation, who reversed a weakening trend over the past few months with the latest poll. Newspoll also recorded a weakening in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, but evidently the aggregate had this priced in already, as the trend results show little changed on last week. As always, full results on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,222 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor”

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  1. Rex that is not what is actually said

    “He said of the Adani project that it was highly unlikely to get finance, and the promised jobs associated with the project had not materialised. The Labor leader said his party’s position on Adani was it “has to stack up commercially and environmentally”.

    Which is more I can say for Greens and other minor groups of rubbish policies.

  2. Pegasus,

    It wouldn’t matter what I post here, you will always find some petty and trivial perceived slight, etc to spew forth another wild ott personalised rant at me and other Greens members and supporters who infrequently post on PB.

    Yeah, I just make it all up out of nothing, eh? Or, on the other hand, I should respect the PB Greens Rule: no criticism of The Greens is allowed but criticism of Labor on an all too predictable basis on PB by Greens supporters is AOK.

    Hmm.

  4. Cat: ‘Less taxes going into Consolidated Revenue = the necessity to cut services.’

    I believe in the back of their minds, if things get that dire and services have to cut, pressure will be there to increase the GST.

  5. Victoria says:
    Sunday, February 25, 2018 at 1:36 pm
    Does anyone think that companies cutting ties with the NRA is merely to do with their stance on guns?

    The big corporations seem to be very sensitive about their public image. So if they sense a shift in public opinion on a topic, they do not want to be caught flat footed, especially if there is a threat of public demonstration against their business.

    Websites of the big corporations, especially those operating internationally, proclaim a commitment to human rights, equality, the environment and so on (e.g. McDonalds on human rights), which tends to be incompatible with supporting groups that do espouse similar values.

    At the present time, big corporations will doubtless weigh up the benefits and costs of being seen to support the NRA.

  6. It’s an election year.

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/dont-screw-up-fishermans-bend-20180224-h0wl6z.html

    The state government has intervened to halt dozens of high-rise towers, putting billions of dollars of investments in doubt, and potentially causing a long-running legal and bureaucratic debacle. It has long been rightly critical of the decisions of former planning minister and current Opposition Leader Matthew Guy. It is curious it has taken the government three years to act.

    ::::
    As the flip-flopping on East West Link, and now potentially on West Gate Tunnel, ignominiously indicates, recent governments of both hues appear to have bungled project management to the great expense of taxpayers.

  7. Asha Leu @ #1894 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 8:04 am

    That is a dreadful ReachTel for the Coalition, by the way. I think all the Barnaby Joyce stuff is finally starting to wash through to the electorate.

    I was out door knocking in Pearce (Christian Porter’s seat) last week and nobody brought it up or even alluded to it.

    Barring the exposure of corruption or rorting, matters like this do not resonate with anyone who is not an insider and has already made up their mind. The damage it does is of the slow burn nature – the way in which it neuters any momentum the L/NP had built up, that it dominates the airwaves & prevents the L/NP from talking about their agenda and gives an impression of general incompetence in the administration of government.

    Any big impact on the TPP is going to be a coincidence rather than causative.

  8. Compare the pair:

    * Labor supporter puts up a story about an environmental catastrophe in Queensland, with no mention of The Greens.

    * Greens supporter puts up an environmental story, with criticism of Labor.

  9. poroti says: Sunday, February 25, 2018 at 2:31 pm

    phoenixRED

    Unfortunately it depends who owns the press

    *****************************************************************************

    Agreed Poroti – Rupert Murdoch springs to my mind …. I guess all forms of the media sway from side to side by whoever is paying their salary and it must take a very brave journalist indeed to report against the prejudices of their employer …… not sure if we have any fearless reporters left anymore ?????? …. no Red Kerry’s in todays media …

  10. ‘It is curious it has taken the government three years to act.’

    Quite possibly because intervening to stop dozens of high rise towers raises many serious legal and financial issues, and it takes thorough investigation of these before action can be taken.

  12. jenauthor @ #2026 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 1:13 pm

    It’s quite hilarious when you think about it:
    1) media always laments lack of nuance. On Adani, ALP has been nuanced.
    2) Media always laments the fact that parties do not evolve policy according to conditions. On Adani, ALP has evolved its stand according to the changing conditions (Adani’s lack of transparency, missed deadlines, perhaps doctored reporting, financial difficulties). Shorten said project needed to stack up environmentally/financially – so as time goes on, that is becoming less & less likely and shorten is now very ‘skeptical’ it’ll even get off the ground.
    3) media now rails that ALP’s stance is confused … but if they were actually listening to answers to questions/pressers, instead of trying to continually dream up gotchas, they might learn that the evolution of policy is quite logical and straight forward.

    The same can be said of Green’s constant challenge to ALP’s position on this … in that Greens want a ‘principled’ and unbending stand from the very beginning. They make themselves attractive to a certain demographic in places like Batman ‘on principle’ but never put forward nuanced policies or evolving policies because there really are no consequences for getting it wrong or being impractical. Like a yappy dog that has forgotten why he’s actually barking and growling, the Greens continually nip at the heels of the very people who might feed them what they want down the track.

    Like ON and other fringe parties, they earn disproportionate media coverage for policy stands that don’t stack up in the here and now.

    Like it or not ALP/Coalition do understand process and winning policy fights by degrees. It might take time to evolve and be made real so they look to move in the right direction.

    People here lament the fact that the world has moved to the right – but that happened by degrees and that is why it has been successful. e.g the ABC

    What is needed is a similar propulsion to the left (and it is happening) but the radical stands of the fringe parties preclude a major jump in either direction because they engender fear in this on the opposite end of the spectrum

    While I agree with your assertion about the media – there is a double standard in how they treat Labor compared to the Coalition – and it is good that policy is developed over time, and evolves to reflect changes in circumstances, you are incorrect in saying it is reasonable for Labor to still be deciding on its position on Adani.

    Even after Adani’s own witness admitted in court in 2015 that there would be less than 1500 jobs created total (including indirect jobs), Labor continued to regurgitate Adani’s public lie that the mine would create 10,000 jobs up until last year. That’s a 2 year lag! That has nothing to do with good policy development.

    The writing has been on the wall about Adani for years, with quality investigative journalists reporting on the many problems with this project and the company behind it throughout last year. QLD Labor gave them free unlimited water, a royalty-free holiday, and bent over backwards to give them good press – and Federal Labor was right there with them the whole time.

    And even now Labor is still sitting on the fence, even with the abundance of evidence that it is a bad project on every level.

    The problem is, even Labor buys into the Coalition’s use of the “Overton Window” labeling issues like #StopAdani as the “radical left.” Fact: issues like marriage equality, climate change, renewable energy, etc are mainstream concerns. Most Australians want these things. That is not radical or left, it is mainstream.

    While Labor loyalists complain about the Greens “wedging” Labor, what I see is Labor letting the Coalition wedge them far more often. How is it that the Coalition can get away with all the crap they do (as Trump in the US does), and it’s all water off a duck’s back, but Labor is too scared to take a stand against their bad policies in case there is some backlash? They let themselves be wedged by the coalition on marriage equality for over a decade, ditto with refugees, ditto with coal power and mining, ditto with tax cuts, etc. On an issue like treatment of refugees – when our country is in violation of human rights and being criticised internationally by the UN – it is the critics of these policies that are considered “radical”? The Coalition have successfully created a new “normal” where abuse of human rights is endorsed by both major parties.

    And this is precisely why we need more people and organisations taking a strong progressive stance, otherwise we’d be moving even further to the right at a faster rate. And while the Greens might have a strong stance against Adani, it is a mistake to think that the #Stopadani movement is the “Greens.” There are people of all political persuasions who oppose this mine project. Even Alan Jones, who doesn’t believe in climate change and could never be accused of being a “greenie” opposes this mine.

    Those in Batman who are trying to choose between voting Labor or the Greens are no doubt wondering: what is the point of voting for Labor if they will stand idly by, allow themselves to be wedged by the Coalition and conservative CMFEU, be complicit in any number of terrible Coalition policies? Progressive minority seats are the only opportunity for progressive voters to wedge things the opposite way – to push back towards the left.

  13. Fyi, this is the part of the editorial in The Age, critical of the Liberal Party and explaining why the Andrews government has acted the way they did:

    It has frozen the projects pending an independent review into the development rush caused by Mr Guy’s unexpected and unforeshadowed decision several years ago to rezone the land. Unlike Docklands, which was built on mostly public land, 90 per cent of Fishermans Bend is privately held, so the rezoning created windfall gains for local property owners and speculators.
    Mr Guy, ignoring the advice of his own top advisers, acted before the government could acquire the necessary land for parks, schools, public transport and other infrastructure, so such crucial purchases will be at massively inflated prices; he created a potentially huge cost for taxpayers.
    Developers are understandably frustrated (and may well turn litigious) at the uncertainty, but getting the project right is the pre-eminent concern, and is in the interests of developers, residents, businesses and the entire city. Fishermans Bend already has communities and commerce, and they should be central to the planning, experimenting with social spaces and testing ideas. This has been integral to the creation of vibrant, flourishing spaces in cities elsewhere in the world.

    Am I surprised Pegasus didn’t include it? Not at all.

  14. David Speers

    ‘I just heard Michael McCormack (favourite to become new Dep PM) referred to as “MickMack”. So there you go.’

    Now if McCormack forms a joint ticket with George Christensen, they could run as MickMack&Crack.

  15. z,

    Still waiting for your evidence re Greens usually polling 15-20% at this point of the electoral cycle, a claim you have made before without evidence.

  16. poroti @ #1920 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 8:45 am

    Asha Leu

    17 states already allow teachers to carry guns at school. So maybe not that. Perhaps it it a ‘backlash’ for his even mentioning possible restrictions ? 🙂

    I don’t know how everyone else here behaved at school, particularly when there was a relief teacher, but at the not so great school I went to we weren’t the best and there is no way known I want a person who would be under the type of stress that my teachers would have been under all day having a gun within arms reach.

  20. Luci,
    It’s no wonder Pegasus is lauding your posts. They are a confection and a fantasy created wrt to the Labor Party’s positions and policies.

  21. meher baba

    Not if the posters on PB are any sort of representative sample: there’s a large number of “my party right or wrong” Labor supporters/members on here. If Labor were to confirm that it is pro-Adani, they’ll be pro-Adani. If Labor were to confirm that it is anti-Adani, they’ll be anti-Adani. If (as is currently the case) Labor tries somehow to be both pro-Adani and anti-Adani at the same time, then they are rather confused.

    They’re loyal to their party through thick and thin: it’s an admirable character trait of which I’m sometimes envious.

    Yep. I tend to discount ‘opinion’ from them to a fair extent.

    “it’s an admirable character trait of which I’m sometimes envious.” – The simplicity of it must be somewhat attractive.

    I end up usually trying to work out which party has the better ‘grab bag’ of policy to give a tick to by striking out what I definitively don’t want!

  22. Up thread someone opinined about who leaked the name of Barnyard’s sexual harassment accuser? Ruling out all the usual suspects, and questioning the Greens?

    Sadly to say, the Greens are clean on this one – not so the white Akubra wearing one.

  24. CTar1,

    “I end up usually trying to work out which party has the better ‘grab bag’ of policy to give a tick to by striking out what I definitively don’t want!”

    That’s my position too.

  31. Andrew_Earlwood @ #1996 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 9:43 am

    Meha Baba -12:25

    Just in passing – revisiting the ability of Australian and foreign companies to claim overseas loses as a deduction against Australian income. Seems to be a low hanging item of fruit to me …

    I thought of that one in all of about 3 seconds.

    It’s worth billions just in itself. Just saying …

    As a CPA I’d like to ponit out that the issue of foreign losses is a little bit more complicated than you’ve made out in your post.

  33. Not if the posters on PB are any sort of representative sample: there’s a large number of “my party right or wrong” Labor supporters/members on here. If Labor were to confirm that it is pro-Adani, they’ll be pro-Adani. If Labor were to confirm that it is anti-Adani, they’ll be anti-Adani. If (as is currently the case) Labor tries somehow to be both pro-Adani and anti-Adani at the same time, then they are rather confused.

    They’re loyal to their party through thick and thin: it’s an admirable character trait of which I’m sometimes envious.

    meher baba,
    You obviously haven’t read my contributions recently on Adani, nor heard my position stated out loud in front of Labor Party MPs yesterday re Adani.

  34. abcsydney: Sydney light rail tests tram for first time as project grapples with construction delays ab.co/2oqw7Mx pic.twitter.com/Xky30mByyO

  35. C@tmomma @ #2121 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 2:46 pm

    Luci,
    It’s no wonder Pegasus is lauding your posts. They are a confection and a fantasy created wrt to the Labor Party’s positions and policies.

    Can you give me a specific example of where I am wrong? Are you claiming that an Adani rep didn’t state in 2015 that there’d be fewer than 1500 jobs? Evidence here: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-06/adani-jobs-accc-legal-case-chris-mccoomb/9226560 Or that Labor never said there were 10,000 jobs? http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-05-18/queensland-government-gives-adani-royalties-holiday/8536560 Can you explain how, when there is abundance of evidence that this project is a terrible idea, Labor still any good reason to sit on the fence about it?

  37. Looking at photos, most of Canberra’s flooding seems to have occurred in the inner suburbs north of the CBD where the ground is fairly flat and water also comes down from the surrounding hills. A lot of Canberra suburbs are on undulating ground and less prone to flooding although there are places where water from a sudden deluge can accumulate, especially if the stormwater drains cannot cope. We’ve had a lot of rain down south but no flooding that I’m aware of. Still, the open drains are very dangerous at the moment.

  38. If the Vic ALP lose a Brunswick by election to the Greens due to Jane Garrett running for Lord Mayor do they have to rely on the vote of disgraced ex ALP MP Don Nardella in order to govern ??

  41. guytaur

    What struck me about the picture is that both Trump and Truffles have something which I do not remember seeing before. A smile that does not look fake.

  42. C@tmomma @ #2126 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 2:49 pm

    Luci,
    No nuance wrt refugees, mining or tax cuts. No timelines. No historical perspective. Just blandishments. C minus.

    I’m sorry, I thought this was the comments section of a blog, not a Ph.D. dissertation. I note you have not provided timelines or details either, just your two lines of disagreement.

  43. guytaur says: Sunday, February 25, 2018 at 2:58 pm

    Poroti

    As the Coalition Tea Lady said on Twitter.

    A cofvette of morons

    …………………nauseating …….. $ 1.75 million buys a ticket to go thumbs up with my friend in mateship , The Prez …..

  44. Ides of March @ #2100 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 11:31 am

    Grimace

    Up until a couple of weeks ago, the SA Electoral Commission did have to adjust its seats to ensure the party that won the majority of the TPP in the previous election would have won the majority of seats. That piece of legislation however has since been removed after it was first introduced in (1992??).

    I was under the impression that that wasn’t going to come into effect until the next term of Parliament?

  48. Gun control

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2018/02/22/as-the-u-s-looks-to-australia-for-hope-on-guns-our-laws-are-being-quietly-pulled-back_a_23369025/?utm_hp_ref=au-politics

    “While Australians strongly support gun laws, many are of the view that everything was set in stone in 1996, but it wasn’t. Firearms laws are a political hot potato, and the Australian public isn’t aware gun laws are in trouble,” Sam Lee, head of Gun Control Australia, told HuffPost.

    ::
    A 2017 review of the National Firearms Agreement found no state had actually complied with all parts of the agreement and that most states had significantly loosened and weakened their gun laws in the two decades since Port Arthur.

    “Every jurisdiction has slipped backwards by varying degrees. (New South Wales) is the most obvious example of compliance ‘slippage,’” wrote the report’s author, University of Sydney adjunct associate professor Philip Alpers.

    ::
    Lee Rhiannon is a senator for New South Wales and a member of the Greens party, the third-largest in the federal Parliament. And one of her portfolio responsibilities is gun control. Rhiannon told HuffPost she was trying to combat the complacency around firearms laws.

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