The Mercury today has the first public poll of the campaign for next Saturday’s Tasmanian state election, being a ReachTEL survey of 3179 respondents conducted on Thursday night. The result is encouraging for the Liberals, indicating enough support to win an absolute majority with three seats apiece in Bass, Braddon and Lyons, and two in Denison and Franklin. Labor’s numbers suggest two in each electorate, including a likely gain from the Greens in Bass, a probable gain from the Liberals in Braddon (although the Liberals could just about hold their fourth seat on these numbers), and a firm gain from the Liberals in Franklin. All of which is more in line with internal polling the Liberals were hawking last week than the last public poll from EMRS, way back in December.
The headline figures from the poll are Liberal 46.4%, Labor 31.1%, Greens 12.1%, Jacqui Lambie Network 5.2%, others 2.0% and 3.3% undecided. After excluding the undecided, which accounted for 5.0% in Bass, 3.5% in Braddon, 2.9% in Denison, 2.4% in Franklin and 2.5% in Lyons, the breakdowns are as follows:
A preferred premier question finds Will Hodgman with his nose in front of Rebecca White, by 51.8% to 48.2%. This is not the first indication that White’s personal ratings may be outpointing her party’s electoral support. After the Liberals circulated their favourable polling a fortnight ago, Labor came back with their own finding that White led Hodgman by 46% to 41%, while noticeably failing to provide any numbers on voting intention.