BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor

Following Newspoll, the latest poll aggregate reading washes away the Coalition’s gains from the earlier polling since New Year.

This week’s Newspoll result had added 0.3% to Labor’s two-party reading on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, and added one seat to their national on the seat projection, the gain being in South Australia. The biggest change on the primary vote is an improvement for One Nation, who reversed a weakening trend over the past few months with the latest poll. Newspoll also recorded a weakening in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, but evidently the aggregate had this priced in already, as the trend results show little changed on last week. As always, full results on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,221 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor”

  1. Sohar: “Murphy has worked for News, Fairfax and Lucy Turnbull, and it shows. The Guardian would be a lot better without her (and subscribers might increase).”

    I believe she worked in John Howard’s office for a bit as well. But she’s the smallest (wettest?) of small “l” liberals.

    I actually quite enjoy a lot of her stuff, which I find much more insightful than that of many others in the gallery – including her boss Lenore Taylor – but I fear I’m in a very small minority of PB posters in this view.

  2. P1

    Yeah the promise of more people getting the contract. Its like promising that more people will get Fibre to the Premise. The first time Labor did it. Not the revised to try and fix up the LNP mess.

    An existing customer under an existing contract of the rollout is saving $3oo.

    Thats fact. No matter how many times you call it a stunt.

  3. Donald J. TrumpVerified account@realDonaldTrump
    3h3 hours ago
    The Democrat memo response on government surveillance abuses is a total political and legal BUST. Just confirms all of the terrible things that were done. SO ILLEGAL!

    Is he suggesting the surveillance of Carter Page was illegal? And does he have no remorse whatsoever that his campaign for president employed a foreign policy advisor who was an agent of a foreign country which the US had imposed sanctions on?!

  4. Luci at 9.58 am, and elsewhere:

    Like you I believe in voting tactically, even to the extent that I voted for Petro Georghiou in 2007 in the hope that he might be the most senior lib post election and become opposition leader. Or at least reduce the swing against a moderate to improve his standing.

    I am a financial supporter of get up’s Adani campaign. Were I in Batman I would vote for Ged Kearney over the Green because Ged will have more influence where it counts. In ALP caucus. Those who watched the end of insiders would be fearful of the inarticulate ALP coalminer getting up in Capricornia and his potential influence on caucus.

    If the ALP continue to lose inner city seats to the Greens it will only likely reduce the influence of progressives in ALP parliamentary ranks.

    OTOH I am now in Melbourne Ports. I will be voting Green to get rid of Danby. Whoever the Green candidate is couldn’t be as useless as Danby.

  5. Trog Sorrenson @ #2002 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 12:44 pm

    Rex

    Is it to Bills electoral advantage to do as you wish ?

    Can’t see why not. Chance to give the Nits a roasting, and there are a lot of downstream farmers, other water users, and environmentalists who are sick of being screwed over by a few massive agribusiness operations and their Nits lackies.

    No doubt they’ll be doing the numbers… coz that’s all that matters to Bill.

  6. Boerwar
    He is only premier by virtue of a significant maldistribution of the vote.

    Wrong. The problems is not maldistribution of the seats but the maldistribution of Liberal voters. The Libs have 3-4 seats in roughly the same area of the state where they poll in excess of 70% 2PP. Labor voters are more evenly distributed particularly in the metro area. The Libs need to do a bit of forced movement of their voters to overcome this problem.

  7. meher baba

    Murphy

    I actually quite enjoy a lot of her stuff, which I find much more insightful than that of many others in the gallery

    I’m glad that someone else agrees with me. It’s not necessary to agree with a journo to enjoy the writing, and she is an excellent, descriptive writer. She doesn’t pretend that she knows everything, and puzzles things out right in front of the reader. She’s human.

  8. The ALP`s policy of removing negative gearing on existing rental properties, with existing negatively geared properties having a grandfathered exception, is unlikely to be driving up rents as it will still be providing for the negative gearing of new build rental properties, keeping them flowing into the rental market, and will take approximately one existing rental household out of the rental market for every existing rental property out of the rental market because its main effect will be to allow owner-occupiers to outbid landlords and thus the rental market will not tighten significantly due to the policy.

    Any housing shortages would be better deal with through vacant property taxes, public housing construction and tax deductibility for owner-occupier new builds, than re-introducing negative gearing.

  9. Falcon
    “The Libs need to do a bit of forced movement of their voters to overcome this problem.”
    Get Barnaby down there in his big rubber boots – you know, the ones with the inside loops. The sheep will clear out pronto.

  10. I actually quite enjoy a lot of her stuff, which I find much more insightful than that of many others in the gallery – including her boss Lenore Taylor – but I fear I’m in a very small minority of PB posters in this view.

    I’m a fan of Murphy’s too, but Lenore Taylor is all about policy. There arguably isn’t a member of the press gallery who has her grasp of energy policy and measures to reduce GHGEs and can articulate those policies etc in ways ordinary folk can understand.

    I feel Murphy lets herself down when she lets her admiration of Turnbull cloud her thinking.

  11. Turnbull, on the success of his trip to the US which he described as ‘…the high point for..’

    ‘I CAME
    I SAW
    I KISSED TRUMP’S ARSE’

  12. Fess and meher

    I can’t understand why, whenever Murphy suggests what Malcolm ‘should do’. that makes her a fan. She’s critical. I would prefer her to be less dismissive of Shorten, however.

    And yes, Lenore is the best writer on energy policy and its ramifications. It’s a pity the Coalition MPs don’t take more notice of her.

  13. Tom I reckon that negative gearing should be restricted to new builds for a maximum of 7 years.

    in 2017 more than 50% of investment loans were interest only, ie the purchaser had no intention of paying off the principle. This high portion of interest only housing loans makes the banks more vulnerable to downturns as well as distorting investment decisions.

    My old economics professor said that people invested in real estate as a form of savings, it’s dead money it actually doesn’t grow the economy, although 45 years later with our high rates of immigration, housing provides many jobs in construction

  14. Lying Tory @ 12.12….

    Labor have policies for tax reform, for social policy, for public investment that will promote equality, opportunity and real income growth.

    Tell as many lies as you like. Labor will deliver change while you play pea and thimble tricks.

  15. Bowen and Shorten will not reverse company tax cuts because they’re trickle down believers.

    May 2017: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/may/17/chris-bowen-wont-say-whether-labor-would-repeal-company-tax-cuts

    Chris Bowen has stopped short of guaranteeing Labor would return the budget to surplus over the forward estimates and has declined to say whether the ALP would repeal the company tax cuts the Turnbull government has already legislated.

    In his traditional budget reply speech at the National Press Club, the shadow treasurer stepped round both questions, saying only that it was a “suitable objective” to return to balance over the cycle and Labor was yet to determine a settled position on the company tax cuts.

    Has Bowen and Labor’s position changed? I doubt it.

  16. Chuckle.

    Sky News Australia‏Verified account
    @SkyNewsAust

    .@JulieBishopMP: The Coalition is the most successful federal political movement in Australia’s history, and will continue to be so.

  17. Chris Bowen has stopped short of guaranteeing Labor would return the budget to surplus over the forward estimates and has declined to say whether the ALP would repeal the company tax cuts the Turnbull government has already legislated.

    Hmm. Sensible position. Don’t get dragged into the same ‘Labor must guarantee a return to Surplus’ game that Wayne Swan fell for.

    Company Tax Cuts to business size of $50 Million are broadly-supported across the community. So who would be stupid enough to advocate repealing them? Oh wait…

  18. poroti:

    17 states already allow teachers to carry guns at school. So maybe not that. Perhaps it it a ‘backlash’ for his even mentioning possible restrictions ?

    Lol, possibly, yes.

    But I think there’s a pretty big difference between teachers being allowed to carry if they want and forcing all teachers to be armed as a legitimate solution to to the epidemic of mass shootings in school.

  19. I can’t understand why, whenever Murphy suggests what Malcolm ‘should do’. that makes her a fan.

    Well I can’t speak for others but for me it wasn’t so much her suggestions of what Turnbull should do, but her constant declarations of the tide having turned for him, only for things to go bad days later as a result of Turnbull’s own ham-fistedness. The objective evidence is that either Turnbull through his own haplessness, or his colleagues through whiteanting are never going to ensure he gets clear air to turn the tide. This has been obvious for a while now, but only recently to Murphy.

    I follow her on facebook and she is the same there as she is in her columns.

  20. It’s quite hilarious when you think about it:
    1) media always laments lack of nuance. On Adani, ALP has been nuanced.
    2) Media always laments the fact that parties do not evolve policy according to conditions. On Adani, ALP has evolved its stand according to the changing conditions (Adani’s lack of transparency, missed deadlines, perhaps doctored reporting, financial difficulties). Shorten said project needed to stack up environmentally/financially – so as time goes on, that is becoming less & less likely and shorten is now very ‘skeptical’ it’ll even get off the ground.
    3) media now rails that ALP’s stance is confused … but if they were actually listening to answers to questions/pressers, instead of trying to continually dream up gotchas, they might learn that the evolution of policy is quite logical and straight forward.

    The same can be said of Green’s constant challenge to ALP’s position on this … in that Greens want a ‘principled’ and unbending stand from the very beginning. They make themselves attractive to a certain demographic in places like Batman ‘on principle’ but never put forward nuanced policies or evolving policies because there really are no consequences for getting it wrong or being impractical. Like a yappy dog that has forgotten why he’s actually barking and growling, the Greens continually nip at the heels of the very people who might feed them what they want down the track.

    Like ON and other fringe parties, they earn disproportionate media coverage for policy stands that don’t stack up in the here and now.

    Like it or not ALP/Coalition do understand process and winning policy fights by degrees. It might take time to evolve and be made real so they look to move in the right direction.

    People here lament the fact that the world has moved to the right – but that happened by degrees and that is why it has been successful. e.g the ABC

    What is needed is a similar propulsion to the left (and it is happening) but the radical stands of the fringe parties preclude a major jump in either direction because they engender fear in this on the opposite end of the spectrum

  21. c@t:

    Hmm. Sensible position. Don’t get dragged into the same ‘Labor must guarantee a return to Surplus’ game that Wayne Swan fell for.

    I agree. Swan’s quixotic quest for a surplus was a major blunder, and – IMO – a big contributor to the downfall of the Gillard government.

  22. Malcolm NanceVerified account@MalcolmNance
    2h2 hours ago
    Literally everything in the #DemMemo refutes Nunes’. It’s comprehensive. Nunes has serious issues with the truth. Suspicious lying/pathological lying is standard grounds for losing ones security clearance.

    If he won’t resign as committee chair his colleagues should move to remove him.

  23. Confessions @ #2006 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 12:49 pm

    Donald J. TrumpVerified account@realDonaldTrump
    3h3 hours ago
    The Democrat memo response on government surveillance abuses is a total political and legal BUST. Just confirms all of the terrible things that were done. SO ILLEGAL!

    Is he suggesting the surveillance of Carter Page was illegal? And does he have no remorse whatsoever that his campaign for president employed a foreign policy advisor who was an agent of a foreign country which the US had imposed sanctions on?!

    1. Yes.
    2. No.
    3. I don’t think Trump has proven ‘government surveillance abuses’ At. All. Just because he Tweets it, does not make it so.

  24. abccanberra: Weather warnings remain in place for the ACT and surrounding areas as residents on Canberra’s north side wade through water in their homes: ab.co/2opLYed #CanberraFloods pic.twitter.com/x7pXMqk770

    #WeatheronPB

  25. Green’s Massive National Election Announcements

    After a quarter of century, what are the core Greens promises?

    The Greens promise to continue to:

    Talk about Changing the Date
    Talk about Adani
    Talk about Negative Gearing
    Talk about how bad Labor is

  26. It’s good to see Labor finally moving on its rhetoric about maintaining the surplus at all costs.

    The Greens Party has long advocated that it’s not whether the budget is in deficit or surplus that matters, it’s the sustainability and justification for the budget position.

    June 2016: https://newmatilda.com/2016/06/29/who-does-a-surplus-serve/

    The obsession both sides of politics have with getting the budget back to surplus is punishing the poor, entrenching high unemployment, and undermining our democracy, writes Owen Bennett.

    :::
    Don’t be fooled by the carefully choreographed economic ‘blame-game’ going on between Labor and the Coalition – when it comes to the federal budget, both parties share the same fundamental economic position.

    :::
    As this facile ‘my surplus is better than your surplus’ squabble droned on, both major parties have continued with the real work of justifying their shared commitment to wipe out the federal budget deficit ($37.1 billion) and, ultimately, the net government debt ($202 billion).

    Here, both parties have formed a formidable public relations team promoting the neo-liberal economic doctrine of surplus budgets and small government.

  27. Asha Leu @ #2026 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 1:13 pm

    c@t:

    Hmm. Sensible position. Don’t get dragged into the same ‘Labor must guarantee a return to Surplus’ game that Wayne Swan fell for.

    I agree. Swan’s quixotic quest for a surplus was a major blunder, and – IMO – a big contributer to the downfall of the Gillard government.

    In fact, it was pointed out to me yesterday that the Coalition’s ‘Debt & Deficit Disaster’ and ‘Labor must return the Budget to Surplus’,rhetoric, was just an artifice to enable the Coalition to offer Corporate Tax Cuts IF the Budget was in Surplus when they came to power, or, alternatively, if still in Deficit, to starve the Budget beast and cut services and sell assets and stymie Welfare and drive down Public Service wages and achieve all their other Neoliberal agenda items.

    Now, in order to get the Corporate Tax Cuts, which is the latest, biggest global agenda item for the Neoliberals to attain, they have simply created another tissue of lies to get it done. The latest being that altruistic corporations, a logical fallacy and non sequitur if ever there were one, will shower their workers in wage rises if they get their corporate tax cuts. When all their behaviour, up to this point in time, suggests otherwise.

    As it was also pointed out yesterday, the ‘Debt and Deficit disaster’ rhetoric evaporated as soon as the Coalition got into office and the 2014 Horror Budget was not supported by the community. Now the Coalition’s Deficit is greater than Labor’s was, even in the teeth of the GFC.

    The Neoliberal Coalition just want their goddam Corporate Tax Cuts! By hook or by crook. Or, should that be, by crooks?

  28. Swan?
    We are talking about Swan?
    Classic Greens unicorn.
    Let’s cut to the chase:
    After a quarter of a century in the political game, name one Greens Treasurer who has achieved anything at all.
    Just one.

  29. cheryl_kernot: Take heart Australian MPs who deliberately choose to be cautious. And take heart Australian media consumers. #auspol #mediamatters independent.co.uk/voices/jeremy-…

    Times change, and Mr Corbyn has been smart enough to realise that the public mood has changed too. The partisan Tory press is less powerful than it used to be. Indeed, Mr Corbyn fought an election campaign last year with The Sun, Daily Mail, Telegraph and Express arrayed against him and closed a 20-point gap with the Conservatives despite their best efforts.

    He is entitled to hit back when they insinuate that he was a traitor to his country. And when a Conservative MP crosses the line into an untrue allegation of taking money from a foreign power, Mr Corbyn is entitled to threaten to go to law as a mark of the seriousness of the matter.

    In Mr Kinnock’s time, the Labour Party’s confrontational stance towards the Tory press seemed to reflect its lack of confidence. Today, Mr Corbyn has the confidence to come out fighting, and it seems that many voters respect him for it

    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/jeremy-corbyn-czech-spy-press-libel-ben-bradley-apology-a8226876.html

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