BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor

Following Newspoll, the latest poll aggregate reading washes away the Coalition’s gains from the earlier polling since New Year.

This week’s Newspoll result had added 0.3% to Labor’s two-party reading on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, and added one seat to their national on the seat projection, the gain being in South Australia. The biggest change on the primary vote is an improvement for One Nation, who reversed a weakening trend over the past few months with the latest poll. Newspoll also recorded a weakening in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, but evidently the aggregate had this priced in already, as the trend results show little changed on last week. As always, full results on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,221 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor”

  1. equal or not? says:
    Sunday, February 25, 2018 at 9:34 am

    Isn’t it conventionally:

    Those who can, do!
    Those who can’t, teach!

    I’ll put you in front of a recalcitrant lower year 8 class while you attempt to maintain discipline and teach something new in the last lesson on Friday before a long weekend.

    Let me know what you think about teachers afterwards.

    There’s a reason parents are often very glad indeed to send the kids back to school after the Christmas holidays.

  2. zoomster @ #1943 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 12:07 pm

    People who put the environment first and foremost join the Greens …

    How the Greens get away with this delusion is a salutary lesson in the the triumph of spin over reality. The ALP really needs to work on countering this one – it is similar to the mass delusion of most voters believing the LNP are “better economic managers”.

  3. Fess

    I just caught up on the article you posted earlier re Trump and the Russian model etc. no doubt there are many connecting agents of influence in Trump’s sphere.

  4. The G business model relied on attracting Labor-positive voters to come across to them. That worked for a while, but to pursue this the Gs also have to always attack Labor, to run decoy positions. In the end, Labor-positive voters have ceased to transfer their affiliation to the Gs, and their base has ceased growing. In fact, it is probably declining slowly. They are now clearly positioned as an anti-Labor voice. Voters are not stupid. They can read this as well as anyone. So the Gs have found they cannot grow at the expense of traditional Labor support and now campaign in their own geographic and demographic homelands – among the privileged bourgeoisie.

  5. Cat

    I am against Uranium mining. However given the state of the world I know its inevitable that we have some. So I always thought Labor policy was the sensible middle ground.

    It has prevented the LNP massively increasing it.

    As I said Labor can go with the South Australian Renewables Policy Nationally and coal will be irrelevant for Labor as an election issue. As you confirm thats ok with the CFMEU.

    That will speak louder than opposing just one mine as economics will win the day every time.
    A powerful position for Labor to take to an election.

    I have had family in Tasmania say Weatherill should be the Federal Leader because of those policies so its not just in NSW that people are paying attention.

  6. guytaur @ #1939 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 12:05 pm

    Cat

    If the CFMEU is accepting Labor’s South Australia policy of transition then I am all for it.

    If its not then I am not.

    As I said earlier. Do South Australia Labor policy on renewables and coal becomes irrelevant as an election issue for Labor.
    I suspect the CFMEU is on board with the Weatherill policies however.
    So I suspect from Mark Butler’s comments on South Australia that Federal Labor is actually going to follow but holding real fire for the election campaign.

    Being able to promise a $300 cut in power bills is much more compelling than “downward pressure” on those bills.

    Beware of Lib-Lab announcements. More often than not they’re just ‘aspirations’ designed for good optics in the media cycle.

  7. Evidence of delusion coming out of the WH:

    Donald J. TrumpVerified account@realDonaldTrump
    3h3 hours ago
    BIG CPAC STRAW POLL RESULTS: 93% APPROVE OF THE JOB PRESIDENT TRUMP IS DOING (Thank you!). 50% say President Trump should Tweet MORE or SAME (funny!). 79% say Republicans in Congress should do a better job of working with President Trump (starting to happen).

    This interspersed with more unhinging about the Dems memo.

  8. poroti/lizzie

    A high school student was investigated and his home searched after allegedly making comments interpreted as possible terrorist threats when … Parish Sheriff’s Office revealed the incident began when a Oberlin High School student drew the square root symbol while completing a math problem in class.

    Uneducated twits. When all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail – or something like that.

    Probably a math teacher …

  9. Rex

    See post above. ABC article about it. Contract in place. Consumer under that contract interviewed is where the $300 figure comes from.

    This is not a promise of something in the future. This is already happening in South Australia. The promise is that more will get that same contract if Labor is reelected.

  10. Pegasus @ #1756 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 11:08 am

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/nationals-mps-push-for-consensus-candidate-to-replace-barnaby-joyce-20180225-p4z1mh.html

    Deputy Nationals leader Bridget McKenzie has signalled she wants her colleagues to lock in a single candidate to replace Barnaby Joyce as Deputy Prime Minister rather than hold a leadership ballot.

    While Senator McKenzie has not publicly backed any one candidate, Veterans Affairs Minister Michael McCormack appears to have the numbers to deliver him the party leadership at Monday’s special party room meeting.

    Peg

    It would not surprise me if Qld Nationals split from the Nationals. There has long been just such a sentiment. Essentially the more moderate types will join the Libs. Several will join the ACA. Probably several will jump to Katter. The Nationals run from Victoria just will not wash in FNQ.

    Here is my guessing (I apologise in advance – I do not know them or follow them well so I could beway off)

    Christiansen , O Brien and maybe o’Sullivan will join ACA
    Landry O’Dowd and Pit will join Katter
    Canavan, Heartsucker and Littleproud the Libs

  11. Rex,
    Murphy has worked for News, Fairfax and Lucy Turnbull, and it shows. The Guardian would be a lot better without her (and subscribers might increase).

  12. C@t

    I suspect the CFMEU is on board with the Weatherill policies however.
    So I suspect from Mark Butler’s comments on South Australia that Federal Labor is actually going to follow but holding real fire for the election campaign.

    Cheaper power – with the exclusion of thermal coal – is good for mining industries as well.
    Witness the Whyalla steelworks and a swag of other value-adding processors that will become viable in due course.

  13. Andrew_Earlwood: “…that is his Herculean task – going through all the egregious ‘tax expenditures’ and absurd deductions on a line by line basis over the first term of a Shorten Labor Government. There are literally tens of billions per annum in savings by simply shaking that tree and collecting the low hanging fruit. ”

    IMO, there truly isn’t very much “low-hanging fruit” there.

    The one obvious one to get rid of is salary sacrifice for novated vehicle leases. It was absolutely ridiculous that the Libs brought it back: at the same time as they killed off the remainder of our car-manufacturing sector. Now – apart from the miniscule salary packaging sector – the only “industry” that benefits from this arrangement is that of car traders: and the number of these who aren’t rusted-on Liberal supporters could be counted on the fingers of one finger.

    I also think that Shorten could get away with reducing the CGT discount by a bit – not by as much as the gumbies at the Grattan Institute would like – but from its currently 50% to, say, 40%. But, because of grandfathering of existing assets, anything you do to CGT – eg, even getting rid of the discount altogether – would produce bugger-all additional revenue for many years. As would any sort of “Buffet tax”. Any taxation policy targeted at genuine “tall poppies” is not going to produce a lot of additional revenue because there aren’t enough of them. Implementing such a policy might make everyone feel a bit better about themselves, but it won’t do much for our budget deficit: although the rise in processing fees for Irish citizenship might help their coffers a bit.

    I won’t venture into the negative gearing debate again – I’ve had my say on here often enough – other than to predict that, if Shorten is elected and is able to get his policy through the Senate (neither of which are anything like certainties IMO), it will only remain in place until the next big jump in rents in the Sydney market. Then, as happened in 1987-1988, the leadership of NSW Labor will begin to panic and press for a reversal of the policy. At this point, the Grattan Institute and co will argue until they are red in the face that the removal of negative gearing was not to blame for the rent increases, but the politics of the situation will force Labor’s hand.

    Unless, of course, the removal of negative gearing complements a significant reduction in the annual migrant intake. But I think the Whitlam Government will go down in history as the last Federal Labor Government not to support high levels of migration in pursuit of a “Big Australia”.

    Apart from this mixed bag of low and high-hanging fruit, I guess Shorten is highly likely to try to reverse Turnbull’s company tax cuts, although the politics of this move – both within and outside parliament – won’t be easy.

    And then? What else are you thinking of in terms of “low hanging fruit”? I’m not having a go, I’m genuinely interested.

  14. zoomster: “As Brigid joined the Nats when she was eighteen, I’m not sure when she had time to dabble with the Greens, let alone Emily’s List. I can’t find any references anywhere to Brigid having the kind of connections necessary to be groomed by Emily’s (something which is usually only available to Labor candidates).”

    Indeed. When I read this comment, I fantasised about the idea of a prominent Green parliamentarian with a large private arsenal and a strong anti-SSM stance. It would make for a change, I guess.

  15. MB

    Fact correction.

    To reverse Tax Cuts they first have to be passed by the Senate. Not happened yet.

    So far the Senate is holding firm.

    Will NXT continue to do so after the election cycle has ended will be interesting to see.

    To state that Shorten has to reverse the Tax Cuts has to wait until they are actually passed we cannot assume they will be no matter how pessimistic and cynical I am about what NXT will do. They have surprised me before.

  16. P1

    Yeah its not. Sure its being used to Labor’s political advantage. However the contracts are in place. Black and white signed sealed delivered.

    Thats not a promise of doing something in the future that is not signed sealed delivered.

    The only “stunt” part is the promise of more consumers getting signed up.

  17. Fess

    Trump may have been connected purely for financial interests. But when you are the President, your loyalty should be to the nation you are supposed to be leading. Not doing the bidding of an adversary.
    As has been said, they must have some heavy duty shit on Trump, for him to go so far as to trash his own country’s legal institutions etc in favour of the Kremlin.
    Putin has succeeded. No doubt about it. All that matters now is if Mueller can cut these whole shit show from head

  18. guytaur @ #1978 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 12:31 pm

    P1

    Yeah its not. Sure its being used to Labor’s political advantage. However the contracts are in place. Black and white signed sealed delivered.

    Thats not a promise of doing something in the future that is not signed sealed delivered.

    The only “stunt” part is the promise of more consumers getting signed up.

    I am in awe of your naïveté!

  19. a r @ #1760 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 11:11 am

    daretotread. @ #1931 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 11:01 am

    My advice is use the raw data on 538 but be wary of their interpretation

    Or just forget 538 entirely, and use the Gallup tracking poll.

    Trump’s approval stands at 37% (which is still quite high for such an incompetent piece of lying, neo-Nazi sympathizing, woman-absuing shit). End of story.

    AR
    Why use Gallup?

    It may be good for your blood pressure to accept twisted fact as true but I prefer real data.

    538 averages without the weightings gives Trump approval at 41% disapproval 54%. This includes all polls where part of the sample was taken within the time span 15-22 Feb.

  20. meher baba @ #1968 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 12:25 pm

    Andrew_Earlwood: “…that is his Herculean task – going through all the egregious ‘tax expenditures’ and absurd deductions on a line by line basis over the first term of a Shorten Labor Government. There are literally tens of billions per annum in savings by simply shaking that tree and collecting the low hanging fruit. ”

    IMO, there truly isn’t very much “low-hanging fruit” there.

    The one obvious one to get rid of is salary sacrifice for novated vehicle leases. It was absolutely ridiculous that the Libs brought it back: at the same time as they killed off the remainder of our car-manufacturing sector. Now – apart from the miniscule salary packaging sector – the only “industry” that benefits from this arrangement is that of car traders: and the number of these who aren’t rusted-on Liberal supporters could be counted on the fingers of one finger.

    I also think that Shorten could get away with reducing the CGT discount by a bit – not by as much as the gumbies at the Grattan Institute would like – but from its currently 50% to, say, 40%. But, because of grandfathering of existing assets, anything you do to CGT – eg, even getting rid of the discount altogether – would produce bugger-all additional revenue for many years. As would any sort of “Buffet tax”. Any taxation policy targeted at genuine “tall poppies” is not going to produce a lot of additional revenue because there aren’t enough of them. Implementing such a policy might make everyone feel a bit better about themselves, but it won’t do much for our budget deficit: although the rise in processing fees for Irish citizenship might help their coffers a bit.

    I won’t venture into the negative gearing debate again – I’ve had my say on here often enough – other than to predict that, if Shorten is elected and is able to get his policy through the Senate (neither of which are anything like certainties IMO), it will only remain in place until the next big jump in rents in the Sydney market. Then, as happened in 1987-1988, the leadership of NSW Labor will begin to panic and press for a reversal of the policy. At this point, the Grattan Institute and co will argue until they are red in the face that the removal of negative gearing was not to blame for the rent increases, but the politics of the situation will force Labor’s hand.

    Unless, of course, the removal of negative gearing complements a significant reduction in the annual migrant intake. But I think the Whitlam Government will go down in history as the last Federal Labor Government not to support high levels of migration in pursuit of a “Big Australia”.

    Apart from this mixed bag of low and high-hanging fruit, I guess Shorten is highly likely to try to reverse Turnbull’s company tax cuts, although the politics of this move – both within and outside parliament – won’t be easey.

    And then? What else are you thinking of in terms of “low hanging fruit”? I’m not having a go, I’m genuinely interested.

    Bowen and Shorten will not reverse company tax cuts because they’re trickle down believers.

  21. Vic:

    The fact that TRump has tried so hard to stop investigations into his campaign and assisting the Russians tells me that there is indeed some heavy duty shit that needs exposing.

  22. meher baba @ #1782 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 11:29 am

    zoomster: “As Brigid joined the Nats when she was eighteen, I’m not sure when she had time to dabble with the Greens, let alone Emily’s List. I can’t find any references anywhere to Brigid having the kind of connections necessary to be groomed by Emily’s (something which is usually only available to Labor candidates).”

    Indeed. When I read this comment, I fantasised about the idea of a prominent Green parliamentarian with a large private arsenal and a strong anti-SSM stance. It would make for a change, I guess.

    Meher
    Rohan Green was active in Tas for a while. He was a real Right to Lifer. Ex ALP. Worked for Nick McKim. they chucked him pretty quickly I think

  23. Zoomstar @ 12:07 –

    “If anything, the existence of the Greens push Labor to the centre, not pull them to the left.

    Labor policies are (by and large) determined internally.”

    Spot on.

    Meanwhile Luci and his congaline can keep preaching from the sidelines ‘what Labor needs to do’ to appease the Greens base – even it only accounts for less than 10% of the general population and completely misses the point of where the sensible middle – that ~37% that vote Labor and that contestable 10-20% in the middle are actually at.

  24. P1

    I am in awe of your naïveté!

    Just cos you can do funny squiggles on top of words doesn’t mean you have a fucking clue about energy policy.

  25. darn: “I heard on the 3aw news this morning a grab from a US official in relation to the latest increase in hostilities in Syria. She said: “How many fathers do we have to see holding the bodies of their dead children before action is taken”.

    Was it truly a US official who said this? Talk about cognitive dissonance. It was the US Government which instigated a mixture of overt and covert action to topple the Assad regime which unleashed the horror and suffering of the war against ISIS. US Government action in/policy towards Syria and other Middle Eastern countries has been an unmitigated disaster. GW Bush went into Iraq when it would have been better to keep out. Then Obama pulled out when it was pretty obvious that all this was going to do was vacate the field for the Sunni extremists: and what extreme extremists they turned out to be! And then, if that wasn’t bad enough, Obama and Clinton decided to destabilise the governments of Syria, Libya and Egypt, giving ISIS a further leg up. Thank goodness the Egyptian military decided to step in when it did and thank something or someone (“goodness” isn’t an appropriate word to use in relation to the Assad family) that Assad hung on and, with the help of Russia, neutralise ISIS.

    But the US Government (presumably egged on by shortsighted elements of the Israeli leadership) seems to have an unquenchable desire to topple Assad. So they are likely to keep trying to do this, even though such an action seems (to me at least) to have only one possible outcome: the elevation of Sunni extremists and the brutal genocide of the Alawites, Druze, Christians and any other minority groups in what was – until the US destabilisation commenced – a rich and diverse society which even featured a remnant Jewish minority. Sure, the Assads have been brutal tyrants, but – as we have seen in recent history – a prolonged state of anarchy can create more human suffering than even the most repressive authoritarian regimes.

  26. Andrew_Earlwood @ #1994 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 12:39 pm

    Zoomstar @ 12:07 –

    “If anything, the existence of the Greens push Labor to the centre, not pull them to the left.

    Labor policies are (by and large) determined internally.”

    Spot on.

    Meanwhile Luci and his congaline can keep preaching from the sidelines ‘what Labor needs to do’ to appease the Greens base – even it only accounts for less than 10% of the general population and completely misses the point of where the sensible middle – that ~37% that vote Labor and that contestable 10-20% in the middle are actually at.

    Labor triple jumped to the right by signing up to such policies as Abbotts torture camp policy for asylum seekers.

    The standard you walk past is the standard you accept.

  27. meher baba @ #1968 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 12:25 pm

    But I think the Whitlam Government will go down in history as the last Federal Labor Government not to support high levels of migration in pursuit of a “Big Australia”.

    Really? I didn’t remember that. Isn’t that interesting – the most progressive government we have ever had, or are ever likely to have – responsible for putting the final nails in the coffin of the White Australia Policy, and for the birth of multiculturalism as we know it today – was not in favor of a “Big Australia”.

    This seems to confirm it: https://candobetter.net/node/4135

  28. Meha Baba -12:25

    Just in passing – revisiting the ability of Australian and foreign companies to claim overseas loses as a deduction against Australian income. Seems to be a low hanging item of fruit to me …

    I thought of that one in all of about 3 seconds.

    It’s worth billions just in itself. Just saying …

  29. Rex

    Is it to Bills electoral advantage to do as you wish ?

    Can’t see why not. Chance to give the Nits a roasting, and there are a lot of downstream farmers, other water users, and environmentalists who are sick of being screwed over by a few massive agribusiness operations and their Nits lackies.

  30. On Bowen as Treasurer.

    If he keeps his promise of the change to Treasury and the PBO then you fears are groundless.

    The new transparent era will expose the inequality and Labor will have popular will for taxes to support service delivery.

    Its brilliant and like a Federal ICAC has the long term effect of making the neo liberal policy much much harder to enact as reality is presented to the voting population.

  31. Sexy Rexy.

    I’m proud of Labor’s policy on asylum seekers. It’s the only one that makes sense. I’ll walk past it every day with head held high.

    Hugs xox

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