BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor

Following Newspoll, the latest poll aggregate reading washes away the Coalition’s gains from the earlier polling since New Year.

This week’s Newspoll result had added 0.3% to Labor’s two-party reading on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, and added one seat to their national on the seat projection, the gain being in South Australia. The biggest change on the primary vote is an improvement for One Nation, who reversed a weakening trend over the past few months with the latest poll. Newspoll also recorded a weakening in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, but evidently the aggregate had this priced in already, as the trend results show little changed on last week. As always, full results on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,221 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor”

  1. And this terrible Reachtel for Turnbull was carried out while he was getting such glorious photo opportunities with Donald Trump. I guess Malcolm’s advisers are scratching their collective heads.

  2. Luci is talking sense, and it is indeed refreshing to see a realistic view of the Green’s role beyond the usual anti-Greens blatherings indulged in by a few obsessives.

  3. P1

    Mr Jenkins was the first in the state to receive the new battery and solar system, and said it would save him about $300 per quarter.

    “We’re using a dishwasher which we couldn’t use before, air-conditioning which we couldn’t use because we couldn’t afford it,” he said.

    “That’s $300 more you’ve got in your pocket to deal with grandchildren, phones, day to day stuff, extra food on the table. It just makes life easier.”

    Just like the 100-megawatt lithium ion battery already installed near Jamestown in the state’s Mid North region, the virtual power plant scheme is the result of a contractual arrangement between Tesla and South Australian taxpayers.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-04/elon-musk-tesla-to-give-solar-panels-batteries-to-sa-homes/9394352

  4. Lol. Labor out-campaigning The Greens in Batman. 🙂

    Just goes to show you can’t win by being a single issue party. Especially when, as we heard on Insiders today, Tony Maher, National Secretary of the CFMEU, has told Bill Shorten and federal Labor that the Adani mine isn’t important to him. So The Greens can campaign against Adani all they like. It’s a dead parrot. It’s essentially meaningless to consider it a live issue.

  5. Reading Chicken Massala’s ‘fairwell to Rome’ piece certainly brought the vomit to my throat. Consider his paragraph on Bill Shorten:

    “The current Labor leader gets a pass mark, at best, after five years in the job. Shorten has largely borrowed from the Abbott play book of oppositional politics; his hypocrisy on the company tax cuts he once supported is breath taking; his refusal to support an across-the-board rise in the Medicare levy to pay for the NDIS is base politics at its worst.”

    Four statements.

    Apparently uniting a terribly destroyed and disheartened party and holding it together despite everything that the Tory press, two royal commissions and the LNP could throw at him personally and being in a position of political dominance is a bare pass mark. Fuck off Rex.

    The second statement is a massive stretch. Shorten hasn’t borrowed from the Abbott play book at all. Why would he develop and announce detailed and controversial policies if he had?

    The third statement is a deliberate lie. There is no other gloss to put on it. Chicken Massala knows that Shorten’s support for corporate tax cuts was conditional on foregone revenue being replaced from other – more equable taxes. In that that’s what Bowen is on about when he suggests that Labor would be open to revisit the issue of corporate tax rates once the budget is back in surplus BECAUSE that is his Herculean task – going through all the egregious ‘tax expenditures’ and absurd deductions on a line by line basis over the first term of a Shorten Labor Government. There are literally tens of billions per annum in savings by simply shaking that tree and collecting the low hanging fruit. In that context it makes sense – both economically and as a matter of equity to realign tax rates (both corporate and personal) to reflect that amount of revenue collected rather than simply being notional rates of tax avoided. THAT is the Labor way. It has been since the Keating reforms in the 1980s. One assumes that Chicken knows this when he verbals Bowen later on in his article.

    The last statement underlines the Chicken’s dishonesty. Shorten’s opposition opposition to a flat bang you over the head increase to the Medicare levy to fund NDIS shortfall is based on two ascertainable facts. Firstly, it is a fact that this government has provided inadequate evidence about the scope of any alleged shortfall, as likely as it is that there will be some shortfall. So the punters are being forced to accept a pig in a poke over the levy increase. Secondly, the flat tax increase is inequitable to the lowest paid. In that context Labor has put forward an alternative revenue plan which will actually raise more money. The Chicken’s Labor hero Bowen articulated in detail how that would work at his Canberra Press Club luncheon address. One assumes that Massola was present and not so inebriated as to be unaware of that.

    So I wrote in the comments section under the article(I assume it won’t be published) Chicken Massala is the pits. The very bottom or a pretty rotten barrel. He won’t be missed. He should take his dishonesty with him to Jakarta. Be gone.

  6. As to that reachtel poll if anything it had a bias towards the Libs.

    Funny thing happened to me yesterday. I was polled by reachtel i recall, but will not swear to it – the full one. Asked about attitudes towards dhorten etc on the usual range (a bit like the Essentual questions. Got through all the Shorten questions and was two into the Turnbull ones and the call cut out!. Probably just Telstra glitch but wrecked their survey I assume.

  7. guytaur @ #1905 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 11:19 am

    guytaur, the cheaper bills are mostly the result of subsidies. Someone is paying for that system, and also for the power it generates. In fact, there are several subsidies involved – some paid for by the SA taxpayers, and some paid for by the other grid users (who no doubt will pay full retail whack for any excess power this system generates).

    Now, if the same equipment were put into a grid-based solar + battery farm, then any savings to be made would be shared by all grid users.

    As well as being more efficient, wouldn’t that be a more equitable solution for SA taxpayers?

  8. I heard on the 3aw news this morning a grab from a US official in relation to the latest increase in hostilities in Syria. She said:

    “How many fathers do we have to see holding the bodies of their dead children before action is taken”.

    My first thought was – what a pity they can’t apply that same sentiment to what is happening in their own country to their own children.

  9. Luci at 10.54
    You are absolutely correct. Blind adherence to Labor irrespective of the issue does not help it into government let alone good government.

  10. On the Insiders this morning I got the impression that Liberal operatives had leaked the name of the sexual harassment victim/complainant. Possibly as a threat to destroy other members of parliament who wouldn’t do what the Prime Minister wants

  11. C@t

    Tony Maher, National Secretary of the CFMEU, has told Bill Shorten and federal Labor that the Adani mine isn’t important to him.

    Murphy

    The mining union made it known publicly that Labor should not harden its position on the Carmichael project, because if it did, it would trigger a divisive internal debate about the future of coal – a debate the party wasn’t ready to have.

    Murphy has written a very confusing piece. Probably in line with the confusion in the public arena. Please get your message straight, Labor.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/feb/24/labors-fence-sitting-on-adani-has-become-a-double-backflip?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+AUS+v1+-+AUS+morning+mail+callout&utm_term=265370&subid=22688624&CMP=ema_632

  12. I was polled by Reachtel last SUnday, my answers would contribute to the Margin of Error
    Last week political party autodiallers contacted me at least 5 times as well

  13. Asha Leu

    17 states already allow teachers to carry guns at school. So maybe not that. Perhaps it it a ‘backlash’ for his even mentioning possible restrictions ? 🙂

  14. Luci: “You’re completely missing the point: voters don’t care about parties. We care about issues.”

    Not if the posters on PB are any sort of representative sample: there’s a large number of “my party right or wrong” Labor supporters/members on here. If Labor were to confirm that it is pro-Adani, they’ll be pro-Adani. If Labor were to confirm that it is anti-Adani, they’ll be anti-Adani. If (as is currently the case) Labor tries somehow to be both pro-Adani and anti-Adani at the same time, then they are rather confused.

    They’re loyal to their party through thick and thin: it’s an admirable character trait of which I’m sometimes envious.

  15. The Gs make a fundamental error in supposing that they attract Labor towards their “positions”…..the so-called Overton effect. This is wrong. When the Gs adopt a stand on an issue, the main effect (insofar as there is any effect at all) is to repel Labor – to encourage Labor to distinguish itself from an opponent. This is necessary for brand coherence and longevity.

    G misunderstanding is not limited to this. Because they campaign against Labor nearly all the time, Labor regard the Gs as an opponent, as proxies for the LNP. This is what the Gs have become – surrogates for the LNP. They are an obstacle to the adoption of policies they claim to support.

    The pursuit of anti-Labor campaigns defines them. They are hostile to the interests and organs of working people….and therefore, ipso facto, are instruments of the Tories. This is absolutely crystal clear.

  16. ‘I thought Brigid McKenzie gave a polished media performance thanks to her grooming by Emily’s List . She dabbled with the Greens as well before settling on the Nationals…’

    As Brigid joined the Nats when she was eighteen, I’m not sure when she had time to dabble with the Greens, let alone Emily’s List. I can’t find any references anywhere to Brigid having the kind of connections necessary to be groomed by Emily’s (something which is usually only available to Labor candidates).

  17. P1

    Pensioner Concessions are the result of subsidies. So no matter how you argue it for the voter the result is clear. Cheaper power bills.

    I am only arguing from the voter viewpoint.

    I disagree with you on the way the virtual power is set up.
    However thats immaterial to the voter.

  18. Trog: “Shorten should take lessons from Jay Weatherill.”

    On policy, or on how to persuade the electoral commission to draw up a gerrymandered electoral map? (Joke)

  19. Confessions @ 11:44 – of course he will. Both Latika and Chicken are on the drip, so it matters not where they are physically based.

  20. lizzie,
    Likely that Murphy article has already reached it’s Use By date. The information on Insiders this morning suggested otherwise and was not contradicted by any other of the couch sitters.

    Honestly, I can see Bill Shorten’s silent hand (well, I guess all hands are silent 😆 ), in this latest development. I reckon, and I have no other beltway information to suggest otherwise, but that Tony Maher and Bill Shorten have had a quiet tete a tete to decide what the fate of Adani should be. Mark Butler likely had input as well, considering his nuanced position and speech this week at The Sydney Institute.

    Now it’s full steam ahead on supporting the CFMEU workers in the other mines and Adani can go jump!

  21. Asha Leu @ #1727 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 10:40 am

    Over in TrumpLand, it seems his recent, baffling surge in approval is finally dropping back down again, likely a combination of the growing Russia developments and his astonishingly dumb plan to arm schoolteachers.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

    Asha

    The trouble with 538 is those polling weightings.
    Like it or not in 2016 Rasmussen predicted the national result very closely, much better than all the other pollsters. yet 538 gives their results a weighting of 0.8 or C+. Marist who over estimated the Dems by 4% gets an A rating and is considered slightly biased towards Dems.

    That is a pretty big vote reduction dropping trump approval from 50% to 45%. Come on, that is way too big a drop. 1-2% I could live with but 5% is just twisting the data. I call it rubbish.Lies, damned lies and statistics.

    My advice is use the raw data on 538 but be wary of their interpretation

    OK Wiliam this is your territory and I would be interested in your comment. I know you use weightings too but surely not so dramatically as to convert 50% approval into 45%.

  22. meher baba

    Trog: “Shorten should take lessons from Jay Weatherill.”

    On policy, or on how to get away with gerrymandering the electoral map?

    Renewables policy.

  23. jenauthor @ #1841 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 10:21 am

    Luci – the small percentage that are swinging voters “don’t care about parties” and “care about issues” but the rest – the 80%+, will ALWAYS vote for a particular party unless something truly earth-shattering happens on one side or the other.

    How dopey are those 80%+ then. No wonder inequality is as wide as it is.

  24. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/feb/25/report-revealing-australias-educational-decline-a-real-worry-says-birmingham

    Australian children are lagging behind when it comes to developing basic skills in primary school but they are staying in school for longer.

    The Australian Research Alliance for Children and Youth’s five-year snapshot, released on Sunday, shows Australia ranks 35th out of 40 OECD countries on preschool attendance, although the number of four- and five-year-olds who attend has dropped in recent years.

    It also shows three in 10 year 4 students aren’t meeting minimum maths standards while one in four are below standard in science and one in five are not at the required reading level.

  25. Cat

    If the CFMEU is accepting Labor’s South Australia policy of transition then I am all for it.

    If its not then I am not.

    As I said earlier. Do South Australia Labor policy on renewables and coal becomes irrelevant as an election issue for Labor.
    I suspect the CFMEU is on board with the Weatherill policies however.
    So I suspect from Mark Butler’s comments on South Australia that Federal Labor is actually going to follow but holding real fire for the election campaign.

    Being able to promise a $300 cut in power bills is much more compelling than “downward pressure” on those bills.

  26. guytaur @ #1926 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 11:56 am

    P1

    Pensioner Concessions are the result of subsidies. So no matter how you argue it for the voter the result is clear. Cheaper power bills.

    I am only arguing from the voter viewpoint.

    I disagree with you on the way the virtual power is set up.
    However thats immaterial to the voter.

    So, as I pointed out before, this whole scheme is really just as an election stunt, and you are ok with SA Labor putting a sub-optimal solution in place.

    I guess you could argue that if it results in Labor being re-elected then it is worth the money, but I’m not sure I agree with this kind of pork-barrelling (which is exactly what it is). If it is wrong for Barnaby Joyce to do it, then it is wrong for Jay Weatherill to do it.

  27. Andrew Earlwood:

    When Latika went to London and kept up her Canberra reporting I thought it was a mistake, as most of the day’s events in Canberra would be going down while she was asleep. Unsurprisingly her morning BK’s Dawn Patrol equivalent was dropped not long after.

  28. meher baba @ #1923 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 11:54 am

    Luci: “You’re completely missing the point: voters don’t care about parties. We care about issues.”

    Not if the posters on PB are any sort of representative sample: there’s a large number of “my party right or wrong” Labor supporters/members on here. If Labor were to confirm that it is pro-Adani, they’ll be pro-Adani. If Labor were to confirm that it is anti-Adani, they’ll be anti-Adani. If (as is currently the case) Labor tries somehow to be both pro-Adani and anti-Adani at the same time, then they are rather confused.

    They’re loyal to their party through thick and thin: it’s an admirable character trait of which I’m sometimes envious.

    Nothing admirable about it at all. The belligerence is totally illogical in that it’s actually self-harming in practice.

  29. If anything, the existence of the Greens push Labor to the centre, not pull them to the left.

    Labor policies are (by and large) determined internally.

    People who put the environment first and foremost join the Greens, which means there isn’t the pressure internally on Labor to push environmental issues, which makes it very hard for those of us who do to get the numbers.

    The other reality is the polling. Look at Bludgertrack – the Greens, obsessed with Adani, Australia Day and like issues, are going backwards. That suggests that the average voter isn’t very interested in the ‘progressive’ agenda, and that there is very little reason for Labor to pander to it.

    And it’s worse than it looks – because normally, at this stage of the electoral cycle, the Greens are polling between 15-20%, dropping to 10% or so at the actual election.

    If this pattern holds up, they’re looking at polling about 6% at the next election.

    The plus side is that they’ve learnt from the Nats and are targetting seats they might actually be able to win.

  30. https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/nationals-mps-push-for-consensus-candidate-to-replace-barnaby-joyce-20180225-p4z1mh.html

    Deputy Nationals leader Bridget McKenzie has signalled she wants her colleagues to lock in a single candidate to replace Barnaby Joyce as Deputy Prime Minister rather than hold a leadership ballot.

    While Senator McKenzie has not publicly backed any one candidate, Veterans Affairs Minister Michael McCormack appears to have the numbers to deliver him the party leadership at Monday’s special party room meeting.

  31. P1

    No as I posted. In the real world its already happening and contracts are in place and the media was able to interview a consumer.

    Its not an election stunt.

  32. Andrew-Earlwood,
    Wise words about the Labor position on Tax Cuts. As I commented earlier, Chris Bowen wants the BCA et al to come to the table for a serious discussion about rectifying the whole Corporate Tax system. Close all the loopholes. Get rid of BEPS. Attack the phony ‘Research and Marketing Hubs’ in Singapore, scam, the Dutch-Irish sandwich, the lot! Only then will he consider, as Treasurer, Corporate Australia’s call for tax cuts.

    To which I might add, we should all be wary of the ‘evidence’ that Trump’s Corporate Tax Cuts have flowed through to wage rises in America. Not to mention that he hasn’t mentioned Dividend Imputation once, by way of comparison between Australia and America.

    Also, since when did wage rises have to come only after corporate tax cuts!?! Corporate Tax Cuts which will massively increase corporate profits. Used to be the case that productivity increases, which flowed through to increased profits, were the basis for wage rises for the workers.

    Anyway, as I was told yesterday, the Coalition have always, always wanted these corporate tax cuts. Job creation and wage rises is just the artifice behind which they are hiding, in order to get them. They also are determined to ‘Starve the Beast’, as in America. Less taxes going into Consolidated Revenue = the necessity to cut services.

  33. z

    because normally, at this stage of the electoral cycle, the Greens are polling between 15-20%

    Please provide evidence to support this claim.

  34. guytaur @ #1939 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 12:05 pm

    Cat

    If the CFMEU is accepting Labor’s South Australia policy of transition then I am all for it.

    If its not then I am not.

    As I said earlier. Do South Australia Labor policy on renewables and coal becomes irrelevant as an election issue for Labor.
    I suspect the CFMEU is on board with the Weatherill policies however.
    So I suspect from Mark Butler’s comments on South Australia that Federal Labor is actually going to follow but holding real fire for the election campaign.

    Being able to promise a $300 cut in power bills is much more compelling than “downward pressure” on those bills.

    guytaur,
    If you haven’t heard the Unions complain about the SA portfolio of Energy policies, then they are likely okay with them. There are still plenty of jobs for their members in SA. Uranium mining for one.

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