BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor

Following Newspoll, the latest poll aggregate reading washes away the Coalition’s gains from the earlier polling since New Year.

This week’s Newspoll result had added 0.3% to Labor’s two-party reading on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, and added one seat to their national on the seat projection, the gain being in South Australia. The biggest change on the primary vote is an improvement for One Nation, who reversed a weakening trend over the past few months with the latest poll. Newspoll also recorded a weakening in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, but evidently the aggregate had this priced in already, as the trend results show little changed on last week. As always, full results on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,222 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor”

Comments Page 37 of 45
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  5. antonbruckner11 @ #1722 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 7:25 am

    Ah, “Kill Bill” Massola couldn’t help being snarky on the way out. This comment on economics says it all about how misguided Massola was (is).

    “Indeed Bowen – a man who knows company tax cuts can deliver economic growth and wages dividends – could prove to be the hope of the side for a Shorten Labor government.”

    Piss off, mate, you won’t be missed.

    Yep agree regarding massola.

    But I don’t think Bowen will make many radical changes some Labor people think/ hope he will. He has already ruled out a ‘Buffet’ tax for example.

    He may well make some changes to CGT etc but I’ll be very surprised if he does anything to effectively redress the ‘trickle down’ nonsense, or legislating to reduce rampant tax avoidance etc.

    Happy to be proven wrong by him. He will be competent, but been in tune with Treasury who give all the indications of singing closely to the ‘trickle down’ song sheet – particularly under John Fraser.

    An early indicator might be if Bowen retains Fraser as Treasury Secretary. Fraser might even jump etc.

    But Labor have to win first.

  6. Regarding Adani, the Greens, Labor and Batman… the #StopAdani movement is bigger than the Greens, and even bigger than “Adani,” as mining the Galilee for thermal coal is both in itself crazy and also symbolic of all bad mining projects in Australia. (n.b. yes we need some mining, but it has to be responsible mining and balanced against other needs too – historically and currently our politicians give mining companies pretty much free reign at the expense of agriculture, communities, health, natural environment, climate change etc, and it’s time to stop that).

    If Labor won’t take a stand against the Adani project (which is nonsensical on every level: climate change, great barrier reef, water basin, economics, tax avoidance, Aboriginal land rights, corruption, etc), then Australia really is doomed.

    At the moment Labor is playing the ‘as long as we’re not as bad as the Coalition’ card, setting a very low bar, hoping to win the next election simply by doing a Bradbury. So how can Australian voters shift Labor? By being willing to take their vote elsewhere. While in most seats voting Green won’t make a difference, as Green preferences mostly flow back to Labor, in a few key seats – like Batman – voting Green will lose Labor a seat. That is the only thing that will make Labor listen to voters: the threat of losing a seat.

    So, if you are a Batman voter, and you want to see Labor shift it’s position on irresponsible mining, now is the time to vote Green to send them a strong message.

    N.B. I am not a member of or affiliated with any political party – I find them all disappointing – and am a swing voter. I live in a very safe seat, so am envious of those who have a vote with real power. Use it wisely 🙂

  9. Sohar @ #1611 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 8:48 am

    “#ReachTEL Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 33 (-1) ALP 37 (+1) GRN 11 (+1) ON 7 (-1)”
    How on earth is Labor only 54-46 on those figures?

    Sohar

    There ar 12% undecided or allocated to other minors

    Allocate 4 On to Libs and three to ALP becomes 37, 40. 11, 12
    Allocate 9 Green to ALP and two to Libs becomes 39, 49,12.

    So it all boils down as to who the 12% are. Given the sharp decline in the Libs vote many are probably conservative leaning and 5% will be ACA or other christian right parties. 2% will be NXT.

  11. Why can’t Bill just say clearly that there are other mines than Adani and they will be the ones surviving? It’s not Adani or no coal. The Townsville people (via the Mayor) seem to believe that Adani is imperative for their survival.

    Get your messages clearer, Labor.

  12. frednk

    And why would you do that? Carbon in landfill is not CO2 just as coal in the ground is not CO2. The difference is coal is suitable for steal making.

    Carbon in landfill is steadily turning into methane, which as you probably know is a much more potent greenhouse gas than CO2. Carbon in landfill can be processed into syngas (CO + H2) as a first step in a chain that yields ultimately any long chain carbon you want (including fuels and plastics). CO from syngas can be used in steel production or syngas can be converted into methane which can then be used in steel production.

    Carbon in landfill ultimately has to be dealt with and the higher the value the product (solid materials) the less the carbon will be released. However, converting carbon in landfills into fuels and then turning that into CO2 is still a lot less greenhouse generating than just letting it sit there and turn into methane.

  13. ‘equal or not? says:
    Sunday, February 25, 2018 at 9:34 am

    Boerwar says:
    (Sunday, February 25, 2018 at 9:31 am)

    “Those that can, teach.
    Those that can’t, go to the Senate.”
    ———–

    Isn’t it conventionally:

    Those who can, do!
    Those who can’t, teach!’

    Yep. Henry Ford.
    One wonders who taught Henry Ford…

  16. Good debut by PvO – clearly a much saner panelist than Gerard Henderson and way less ideological than Stutchbury.

    His parting insight was that KK is cracking her knuckles ahead of her first Estimates this week, saying she has a broad range of things she wants to look deeper into, the Barnaby thing being just one of them.

  19. lizzie

    Why can’t Bill just say clearly that there are other mines than Adani and they will be the ones surviving? It’s not Adani or no coal. The Townsville people (via the Mayor) seem to believe that Adani is imperative for their survival.

    Get your messages clearer, Labor

    Labor should have spent the last 12 months developing and promoting an economic plan for regional Qld. They could then claim that “Queenslanders need certainty. Our plan will generate more jobs than Adani”.
    Instead, they just sat on the fence.

  20. Luci
    It does not matter what the issue is, Labor will always be wedged by the Greens.
    Just as the Liberals will always be wedged by PHON.
    PHON damages the Coalition = PHON is good for Labor.
    The Greens damage Labor = the Greens are good for the Liberals and the Nationals.
    The core point for both PHON and the Greens is that neither will ever have to appeal to half the electorate.
    So they can play in the extreme paddock, do morally superior and closer to the real truth and do electoral mischief for the Liberals and Labor.
    The PHON/Greens Paradox: these minor parties are damaging the parties that are most likely to deliver more of their agenda

  21. Luci @ #1800 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 9:58 am

    So, if you are a Batman voter, and you want to see Labor shift it’s position on irresponsible mining, now is the time to vote Green to send them a strong message.

    Further to that: We know the Coalition isn’t going to shift because they are so far in bed with the mining industry and ideologically driven to oppose anything ‘environmental’; the power in Labor opposing Adani is that it destabalises their ability to get finance. Investors and banks want to know that if they put their money into something today, it will lead to a future profit. But if the potential future government will revoke permission, that creates too much risk to put your money into.

    Labor has the power to kill the mine even though they are in Opposition.

  23. Trog
    Re: peak iron, it was an idle thought. The Great Chinese Construction Binge is reaching its logical end. The built environment in China contains masses of embedded steel. That steel is already becoming available for recycling.

  24. This is proven nonsense. Does Bowen really believe that, or is Massola putting words in his mouth because he believes it? Besides, we don’t need another Keating. He swung too far to the ‘right’.

    Lizzie – Keating was (is?) Bowens ‘hero’, his inspiration for pursuing his Economic degree etc and for entering politics and the labor Party at a very early age.

    On a more positive note though Keating has stepped back from some of his 80’s position – for example saying that era IR settings have failed workers – wages wise.

    But I’ve got ‘reservations’ about Bowen. I think his position will still be that business get their ‘full’ first. The rider he has stated though is that the Budget will need to be in balance before he cuts company tax – which would still hinder debt reduction.

    Just hope to hell I’m wrong about Bowen and that he doesn’t just become a mini Keating.

  26. Boerwar
    Agree.
    My point was that you do not need to eliminate all greenhouse gas producing processes to be carbon neutral, or even carbon negative.

  27. Boerwar @ #1820 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 10:09 am

    Luci
    It does not matter what the issue is, Labor will always be wedged by the Greens.
    Just as the Liberals will always be wedged by PHON.
    PHON damages the Coalition = PHON is good for Labor.
    The Greens damage Labor = the Greens are good for the Liberals and the Nationals.
    The core point for both PHON and the Greens is that neither will ever have to appeal to half the electorate.
    So they can play in the extreme paddock, do morally superior and closer to the real truth and do electoral mischief for the parties that.
    The PHON/Greens Paradox: these minor parties are damaging the parties that are most likely to deliver more of their agenda

    You’re completely missing the point: voters don’t care about parties. We care about issues. If Labor fails to take the right stand on something – like the Adani mine – they are hurting themselves. They can’t blame that on the Greens. That’s like Barnaby blaming the media for the pain he inflicted on his wife and daughters. Complete bullshit passing the buck.

    Labor needs to stop being pissweak and take a stand when it is needed.

  28. Lizzie

    Labor needs to follow the Jay Weatherill Strategy.

    Then they will not need to talk about coal. Their policy will be plain as the nose on your face. A great message to sell.

    The LNP can then scream about coal all they like it won’t dent Labor’s successful policy.

    Instead Labor will be running nationally using the Renewables are a job creator highlighting what a Labor government has done in actual job creation and actual power price reductions.

    Thats the message Labor can run with and no one can then accuse them of being slack on the environment. For Labor Coal will be irrelevant as an election issue

  29. C
    Agree. PvO was an excellent addition to Insiders. It was nice to see that the panellists made the observation that there was more than just sex to Joyce’s downfall.
    In the context of the ME issues, it was worth nothing that several of the Nationals abandoned Joyce because he did not meet their moral and ethical standards.

  31. guytaur @ #1615 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 8:54 am

    EnviroVic: MEDIA RELEASE: EPA power station licence review must include limits on CO2 envict.org/2ETsyob
    https://twitter.com/envirovic/status/967526001713401856

    Guytur

    Once again I am out of step with group think BUT it will be of MUCH more immediate environmental benefit to reduce Mercury emissions than CO2. Was a time when the emissions of mercury were “taxed” heavily.

    I was deeply saddened to realise that that no longer applies.

    It seems as if you in victoria have taken a massive retrograde step in pollution management over the last 10 years. In 2004 Vic EPA was a world leader, probably even better than California. Seems now it has fallen to the bottom of the pack, presumably thanks to the Liberal government. Seems Andrews is trying to reclaim some ground but it will be a tough call.

  36. In the context of the ME issues, it was worth nothing that several of the Nationals abandoned Joyce because he did not meet their moral and ethical standards.

    Yes that shocked me. Who knew Nats MPs had moral and ethical standards!

  37. G
    South Australia has 6% of the national economy. It makes nothing. It exports nothing. It builds very little. It does dig up and export some minerals. (The single biggest mine would be closed by Greens policies). Labor is on the nose.
    Why do you want Federal Labor do to the national economy what State Labor has done to South Australia?

  38. Trog Sorrenson @ #1819 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 10:08 am
    Labor should have spent the last 12 months developing and promoting an economic plan for regional Qld. They could then claim that “Queenslanders need certainty. Our plan will generate more jobs than Adani”.
    Instead, they just sat on the fence.

    Agreed. There are more jobs in renewables and the organisations campaigning on #StopAdani even did the analysis and laid out all the better ways to create jobs in the Far North that would be sustainable, better for communities, and make better economic sense.

    Instead, QLD Labor wined and dined the mining millionaires and regurgitated their propaganda and lies about “10,000” non-existant jobs. I’m glad they are changed their tune somewhat – but it took a state election with Adani as a hot issue (risk of losing government) to do it.

  40. fess

    PVO and KKeneally did a show together on Sky news. One of only shows that I didn’t mind watching. They were good as a team. No doubt he is still talking to her. So if KK is ready to sharpen her claws for senate estimates, I say bring it on!!!!!

  41. Luci – the small percentage that are swinging voters “don’t care about parties” and “care about issues” but the rest – the 80%+, will ALWAYS vote for a particular party unless something truly earth-shattering happens on one side or the other.

  44. BW

    After the LNP devastated the job availability in destroying car manufacturing in this country Weatherill is bringing jobs back to South Australia.

    He has just got a German company to join a British company in moving to South Australia.
    That along with an American Company called Technicolor if my memory of the company name serves me correctly.

    With his virtual power plant Weatherill has policy in place that does reduce the actual price of electric power bills for residents. Not “downward pressure” actual reductions.

    There is a reason the latest polls have Labor in front in the South Australia polls.

    This is policy Labor Federally should run with. This is a government in the lead after being in power for four terms. Its Time not working for the opposition that should be miles ahead in the polls by adage long term governments lose as voters want change.

  45. Luci
    Labor have a position.
    The Greens have a position.
    You have position.
    Do you and the Greens want to be in a position to do something about the environmental issues you listed ?

  46. Boerwar

    South Australia has 6% of the national economy. It makes nothing. It exports nothing. It builds very little. It does dig up and export some minerals. (The single biggest mine would be closed by Greens policies). Labor is on the nose.
    Why do you want Federal Labor do to the national economy what State Labor has done to South Australia?

    Maybe you should take a look at Ladbrokes or Sportsbet, and see the rise in SA Labor’s fortunes since Weatherill doubled-down on renewables. 75% generation target plus 25% storage target.
    Smart politics.
    P.S. I’ll wager SA produces better wine than the piss they excrete in your neck of the woods.

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