BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor

Following Newspoll, the latest poll aggregate reading washes away the Coalition’s gains from the earlier polling since New Year.

This week’s Newspoll result had added 0.3% to Labor’s two-party reading on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, and added one seat to their national on the seat projection, the gain being in South Australia. The biggest change on the primary vote is an improvement for One Nation, who reversed a weakening trend over the past few months with the latest poll. Newspoll also recorded a weakening in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, but evidently the aggregate had this priced in already, as the trend results show little changed on last week. As always, full results on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,221 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor”

  1. DTT and Sohar on Reachtel

    I’m pretty sure, and William will no doubt correct me if I’m wrong, that preferences in Reachtel polls are respondent allocated, rather than being based on last election preferences.

  2. G

    At 6%, South Australia is fringe stuff.

    A huge proportion of that 6% comes from unfair distribution of GST, the unfair distribution of the Defence Spend, and federal social security, age pension, education and health transfers.

  3. Boerwar you think the Greens hurt Labor, but let’s imagine there were no Greens. Who would be pushing for progressive policies in this country? Obviously not the Coalition, and not Labor either. Greens are an important counterweight in terms of the Overton Window. Without pressure from the Greens, Labor would be more conservative and right-wing. If anything, the Greens have failed by not being an effective enough wedge.

    If you consider the corresponding far-right counterparts that have dragged the Coalition well and truly to the right – which has succeeded in shifting Australia to the right (consider our refugee policy, which Labor is complicit in; irresponsible mining, which Labor is complicit in; neoliberalism resulting in issues such as housing affordability and tax cuts, which Labor is complicit in)… how can you complain about a progressive left party such as the Greens when they are the only ones speaking up against this stuff?

    Unfortunately the far-right is far better at using the Overton Window than progressives have been. Saw this video today about the Trump administration, described through the frame of the Overton Window and thought: yep, that’s what the Coalition is very good at: https://youtu.be/_v-hzc6blGI

    And Labor is complicit.

  4. While VicForests says it is meeting its obligations to log responsibly, critics argue the lack of enforcement is an example of the government’s reluctance to crack down on the powerful timber industry. The highly-guarded and often lengthy nature of investigations has also raised questions about the department’s role as a regulator that is meant to be at arms’ length from the state’s logging entity.

    With nine months until the Victorian election, forestry policy is likely to become increasingly sensitive for the Andrews government, which came to office partly on a platform to protect the environment.

    A central plank of this plan was to create a Great Forest National Park, which would establish 355,000 hectares of newly-protected forest stretching from Kinglake to Mount Baw Baw and back to Eildon.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/andrews-government-accused-of-impotent-approach-to-logging-breaches-20180224-p4z1lg.html

  5. Luci
    I suspect that you are a Liberal Agent Provocateur.
    If you really want to do some damage to the Liberals, I suggest you start pretending to be a PHON supporter and start attacking the Liberals from the extreme right position.

  6. At least they made the distinction between coking & steaming coal on Insiders.

    And it showed that press gallery journalists are capable of taking in substantive issues instead of focusing on the froth and bubbles.

    Why they don’t demonstrate this more often is a question for the ages.

  7. guytaur @ #1828 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 10:15 am

    Instead Labor will be running nationally using the Renewables are a job creator highlighting what a Labor government has done in actual job creation and actual power price reductions.

    Unfortunately, neither of these things are true. If Labor runs on this platform they will be (rightly) called out on it. Check out the power prices in SA – not only the most expensive in the NEM, but rising the fastest (apart from a one-off effect in Victoria from the Hazelwood closure):

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-07/power-prices-off-the-chart/8687480

    We certainly need to stop burning coal ASAP, but we also need to stop perpetuating the myth that we can do this and lower prices at the same time. If you really want to do something about electricity prices, a national gas reservation policy is the right answer in the short term.

  8. Insiders this morning didn’t put up a subtitle for Peter
    At the end of the program he was referred to by name
    So that’s what PVO looks like.

    I thought Brigid McKenzie gave a polished media performance thanks to her grooming by Emily’s List . She dabbled with the Greens as well before settling on the Nationals, her boyfriend is in the New Zealand parliament, and although she has an address in Ballarat or Bendigo she probably still has her Elwood property.
    I think her elocution is just as fluid as her domicile.
    I think she has her constituents interests just as much at heart as Barnaby Joyce

    Not that I would vote National, but I think they can’t go past Darren Chester for leader and Brigid McKenzie for deputy because the Queensland mob and McCormick just aren’t good enough

    PS the Coalition can’t be 90 years old because the Liberals were formed in 1943

  9. C
    McMaster, Kelly and Mad Dog Mattis were supposed to be the troika of senior people who would insert some sanity and order into the White House Administration.
    McMaster and Kelly are both on borrowed time.

  10. BW

    Spurious stuff from you. Weatherill is in Neville Wran territory on the number of election wins he has got and could get.

    The fact Labor is not miles behind is testament to South Australia’s Labor policies.

    Thats it.

  11. g
    Tosh. Weatheril has not won a majority of the vote in any of the last three state elections.
    He is only premier by virtue of a significant maldistribution of the vote.

  12. jenauthor @ #1841 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 10:21 am

    Luci – the small percentage that are swinging voters “don’t care about parties” and “care about issues” but the rest – the 80%+, will ALWAYS vote for a particular party unless something truly earth-shattering happens on one side or the other.

    Do you have a reference for that statistic? Here it says that swinging voters account for 54% of voters. So there are more swinging voters than rusted-on party loyalists. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-22/election-2016-who-really-decides/7395568

    And if swinging voters didn’t have an impact then there would be no need for election campaigns, or elections, because the same people/parties would be voted in every election. Clearly, they make an impact in marginal seats such as Batman and the recent QLD election, and QLD Labor changed their stance on Adani due it being a hot election issue. That’s the point: federal elections are fought and won in marginal seats, so voters in those seats have greater power, and parties will shift their policies to appease them. People in Batman have the power to shift the Labor parties policies by making it clear that they will vote Green if Labor doesn’t oppose Adani.

  13. Ides

    Thats shows the stupidity of the Nationals. If both came from Northcote and could increase the votes for the party they should go with it.

    Of course they can’t. All those citysiders are evil narrative is destroyed then.

    I think this is part of the problem for the Nationals. Not only are they not representing the actual country people. They are solidifying a base around a declining population and calling the relatives who left for career reasons evil does not have the same ring to it anymore.

    Virtual ghost towns tend to undermine that narrative.

  14. guytaur @ #1844 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 10:25 am

    With his virtual power plant Weatherill has policy in place that does reduce the actual price of electric power bills for residents. Not “downward pressure” actual reductions.

    *sigh*

    I am not going to argue against the scheme (which is a separate issue we have done to death), but you should understand that the “reductions” are mostly because this scheme is being subsidized in various ways, and not because the electricity generated is cheap – it isn’t.

    Either the SA taxpayers or other SA electricity users will end up paying for this scheme, and most of the benefit will go to the battery manufacturer (being the single most expensive component).

  15. PNSlipper: Hi Wombat. I’m a Barrister in Hobart doing quite a bit of pro bono work for people who cannot afford to access our system of justice #auspol @abcnewsTas twitter.com/wombat_wood/st…

    wombat_wood: @PNSlipper What do u do these days Peter?

  16. Boerwar:

    I doubt even the best staffers and minders would be able to bring calm to the WH while occupied by the most incompetent and chaotic president.

    This quote says it all for me.

    “When you put that all together, the White House should be extremely worried,” said Benjamin Wittes, editor in chief of Lawfare, a blog that analyzes legal issues, and a friend of James B. Comey, the former F.B.I. director who was leading the Russia investigation until being fired by Mr. Trump last year. “You have to ask the question about whether there is a certain measure of self-delusion going on here.”

  17. Unfortunately, neither of these things are true. If Labor runs on this platform they will be (rightly) called out on it. Check out the power prices in SA – not only the most expensive in the NEM, but rising the fastest (apart from a one-off effect in Victoria from the Hazelwood closure):

    Power prices in SA are high because of a lack of competition and rorting by the gas-fired generators pushing spot prices through the roof. The Horsndale battery is a small first step in reversing this trend, and with a broad suite of new renewable competition coming onto the market the price rises will start to be reversed.
    The last thing the SA market needs is more gas for the spivs.

  18. jenauthor @ #1653 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 9:21 am

    Luci – the small percentage that are swinging voters “don’t care about parties” and “care about issues” but the rest – the 80%+, will ALWAYS vote for a particular party unless something truly earth-shattering happens on one side or the other.

    Jen

    I think what you say WAS true but is increasingly less so. When i was young the figures were more like 90% voted for a party with 10% swinging.

    In recent years we have seen much much more fluidity. Based on those reach-tel numbers we have 33% still solidly Liberal. Labor has fallen this low before too so give them also 33%. Then there are probably about 7-9% of Greens voters who are committed Greens voters ie they have transferred their loyalty to the greens.

    In other words the committed party loyalist vote is now about 70-75%.

    The other parties are still too new to really have a handle on them but perhaps they will emerge to claim party loyallty as did the greens. My expectation however is that party loyalty will continue to decline.

  19. Luci, thank you for bringing some nuance into this thread. One tires of endless drum beating for Labor against anything Greens. I know a few long time Labor people who have become so incensed with Labor’s pussyfooting on Adani that they have begun actually donating to the Greens. It is not all about the spectacle of entitled factional hackery in Labor. It is actual issues not being faced.

  20. Luci:

    Well said.

    For the most part, I have a lot of time for Shorten. I’m encouraged by the direction he has taken Labor in since becoming leader and the extent to which he has fought for issues like SSM and action on climate change. I reckon he’ll be an excellent Prime Minister.

    But Labor’s determination to hedge their bets on Adani is one of those things that reminds me why it is so important to have party like the Greens around as a check and balance.

  21. Boerwar @ #1859 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 10:38 am

    Luci
    I suspect that you are a Liberal Agent Provocateur.
    If you really want to do some damage for the Liberals, I suggest you start pretending to be a PHON supporter and start attacking the Liberals from the extreme right position.

    Again you’re missing the point. I don’t care about parties, I care about issues. Coalition policies are rotten to the core, so yes come next Federal election I want Labor to win government. Batman byelection is not going to change the government, but it will signal to Labor what policies they need to have if they want to win our votes. Otherwise, they get the vote simply for being ‘not as bad’ as the Coalition? Aim higher, please. Rusted on loyalists like you allow the Labor party to have bad policies, because they don’t have to earn your support.

  22. P1
    You are really adept at the climate two-step P1.
    One minute you are hopping on your left foot, claiming it’s all about emissions reduction, the next thing you are hopping on your right foot, claiming it’s all about cost.
    Why don’t you make up your fucking mind?

  23. BW:

    I suspect that you are a Liberal Agent Provocateur.

    This strikes me as a really unfair accusation to make against someone who has been simply been arguing their own position in a very calm, articulate, and friendly manner.

  24. P1

    Who said anything about lying.

    The cheaper power bills promised for voters are black and white policy built into the agreement with Tesla

    Thats more substantial than most policy promises any politician has promised.

  25. Emerson began working for Hawke as an adviser on microeconomic reform. But he soon found himself – almost by accident – working as the environmental adviser as well. One day, Bob Brown, then a Tasmanian MP (later head of the federal Greens), appeared in Hawke’s office with Graham Richardson for a meeting on Tasmania’s forests, then under threat from the logging industry.

    “Who’s going into the meeting?” Hawke’s key aide Bob Hogg shouted. Emerson put his hand up. From that impromptu start, he developed an intense engagement with the environmental movement which – backed by Hawke, Paul Keating, the political smarts of Richardson, and a network of influential contacts in other ministerial offices – helped deliver Labor victory in both the 1987 and 1990 elections.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/craig-emersons-book-bares-soul-of-the-former-labor-minister-20180222-h0wibq.html

  26. Golly @ #1845 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 10:25 am

    Luci
    Labor have a position.
    The Greens have a position.
    You have position.
    Do you and the Greens want to be in a position to do something about the environmental issues you listed ?

    I am not with ‘the Greens’ but yes, of course, I want there to be better policies around environmental (and social and economic etc) issues. I’m not sure what point you’re trying to make.

  27. Oh and contrary to Nunes’ hysterical wailing, the Page surveillance measures were all approved and renewed by Republican appointed judges!

  28. That is a dreadful ReachTel for the Coalition, by the way. I think all the Barnaby Joyce stuff is finally starting to wash through to the electorate.

  29. Lizzie

    A good example with Emerson of why Gillard agreed along with Windsor and Oakshott to sensible environmental policies that had to work.

    Its such a pity that the media let Abbott get away with the carbon tax lie of the short term and that Gillard did not come back with Its a trading market not a tax.

  30. Fess

    It was obvious that Carter Page was a Russian Agent. His behaviour of late got me thinking that he is a bad actor who is now assisting the prosecution. But I keep changing my mind. He is one weird cat and not sure if some of his outward behaviour at present is part of the act. He still confuses me.
    On the other hand, I think Maria Butina is clearly working for the Kremlin, but she has been found out and now is under pressure by the US to spill the beans. I reckon if she does so, they are all rooted

  31. Fess

    Yep. Nunes and co were simply trying to muddy the waters and discredit the whole investigation. No doubt, they may have had some success, but I don’t think it was going to make one iota of difference. Mueller has almost everything he needs. If this Maria Butina flips, goodbye felicia!!

  32. Trog Sorrenson @ #1881 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 10:55 am

    P1
    You are really adept at the climate two-step P1.
    One minute you are hopping on your left foot, claiming it’s all about emissions reduction, the next thing you are hopping on your right foot, claiming it’s all about cost.
    Why don’t you make up your fucking mind?

    Because it is not me getting things twisted. I have fairly consistently said two things:

    1. We should eliminate coal-fired power stations as soon as possible. This is the single biggest and most practical thing we can do to rapidly bring down C02 emissions.

    2. We cannot reduce emissions without increasing power prices. Any scheme that effectively puts a price on carbon emissions will necessarily result in increased prices, at least in the short to medium term.

    You are the one constantly trying to to win the argument on price alone, by claiming ridiculous things like “renewables are already cheaper”.

    All I do is point out that this is simply not true (except in certain special cases, none of which apply here). That is not the same as basing my argument on price, as you consistently do.

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