Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Nearly two-thirds of respondents want Barnaby Joyce out as Nationals leader, as the Coalition and Malcolm Turnbull lose their gains from the year’s first poll a fortnight ago.

Newspoll has Labor’s lead back at 53-47, after its first new poll for the year a fortnight ago had it down to 52-48. The Coalition is down two on the primary vote to 36%, with Labor steady on 37%, the Greens steady on 10%, and One Nation bouncing back three points after a recent slump to 8%. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 45-31 to 40-33. All we have in terms of leadership approval at this stage are that Malcolm Turnbull’s net rating has weakened from minus 13% to minus 18%. Also featured is a finding that 65% of respondents believe Barnaby Joyce should resign as leader of the Nationals, which breaks down into a lot of detail I’m finding hard to parse from Simon Benson’s report in The Australian. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1632.

UPDATE: Malcolm Turnbull is down three on approval to 34% and up four on disapproval 54%; Bill Shorten is steady on 34% approval and up two on disapproval to 54%. Only 23% agreed that Barnaby Joyce should remain Nationals leader, with 29% favouring him resigning from the front bench, 15% bowing out at the next election, and 21% quitting parliament immediately. The poll also finds 64% support for a ban on sexual relations between politicians and their employees, with 25% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,598 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. p1

    Immigration levels too high, too low, about right?
    Immigration a benefit, cost, or neutral to economy?

    Agree it needs talking about but also that Abbott being involved will hinder a rational discussion.

  2. Would Barnaby return to backbench or sit independently? Would he resign altogether and force a by-election? There seems to be a lot of bad blood in the party. Hopefully it doesn’t end well for them.

  3. Steve Davis

    Take another look at the celebrations after the NE byelection: Joyce really did look like he thought he had got away with it.

    Pride might be the last in the list of the seven deadly sins but combined with No 1, lust, it might just bring him down.

  4. Theres another story in the Tele about Joyce going on a 3000km road trip some of it if not all with his pregnant girlfriend and did no official work at all.Who paid the bill?the paper asks.


    WASHINGTON — There is “ample evidence” that the Trump campaign colluded with Russians, but only special counsel Robert Mueller can decide if it’s enough to prove a crime beyond a reasonable doubt, the senior Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee said Wednesday.

    “There is already, in my view, ample evidence in the public domain on the issue of collusion if you’re willing to see it,” Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif, told reporters at a newsmaker breakfast hosted by the Christian Science Monitor. “If you want to blind yourself, then you can look the other way.”

    Schiff said there is evidence — heard by the committee behind closed doors —that he can’t talk about publicly because it remains classified. But he said there is plenty of evidence of collusion that has been reported publicly, including:

    — Former Trump campaign adviser George Papadopoulos pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI about talking in April 2016 to a professor with close ties to the Kremlin who told Papadopoulos that Moscow had “dirt” on Hillary Clinton. The professor told him about thousands of emails the Russians had from the Clinton campaign.

    — Donald Trump Jr., Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner, and former campaign chairman Paul Manafort met with a Russian attorney at Trump Tower in June 2016 after being promised “dirt” on Clinton. The campaign later communicated to meeting organizers that they were disappointed they didn’t get what they were promised.

    — In July 2017, the president and White House advisers put together a misleading statement about the nature of the Trump Tower meeting, saying that it was for the purpose of discussing Russian adoptions.

    — The Trump campaign knew through Papadopoulos that the Russians had obtained thousands of emails from the Clinton campaign. Then-candidate Trump publicly asked the Russians in July 2016 to hack Clinton and find her “30,000 emails that are missing” from the personal email server she used while secretary of State. WikiLeaks began posting emails from the Clinton campaign in October, just weeks before the November election.

    — Former White House national security adviser Michael Flynn held secret conversations with Russian officials in December 2016 during the presidential transition period, promising to undermine sanctions imposed against Russia by the Obama administration for meddling in the U.S. election. Flynn pleaded guilty late last year to lying to the FBI about those conversations.

    “All of this is evidence of collusion,” said Schiff, a former federal prosecutor. “Now, I’ve never said that there was proof beyond a reasonable doubt. That’s for Bob Mueller to decide. But to say there’s no evidence of collusion, you’d have to ignore all this.”

    Mueller is investigating Russian interference in the 2016 election, possible collusion between the Trump campaign and the Russians, and possible obstruction of justice by the president.

    “If this were a trial on the issue of did the Trump campaign conspire with the Russians to interfere or violate U.S. election laws by providing help to the Trump campaign, if this were a trial on that conspiracy charge…all of that evidence would come in as evidence of collusion,” Schiff said.

  6. More David Marler Retweeted The Sydney Morning Herald

    “Bridget McKenzie, said Nationals senators would not attend Monday’s meeting – reducing attendance from 21 to 16 – because of Senate estimates commitments.”

    MacKenzie been quite until now but obviously doing the ‘numbers’.

    Extra press will be needed to watch the doors outside of the Nats Party room on Monday morning while they’re covering Estimates as well.

    The ‘meeting’ could take 10 minutes or 10 hours!

  7. ar

    Thanks for the diff checker. Confirms what I thought that this is an entirely new article based on the same research. Its good, but not nearly as good as the original.

    Can’t wait for the RWNJs to get up in arms about it, just to make themselves look really stupid.

  8. CTar1 @ #2564 Friday, February 23rd, 2018 – 12:03 am

    More David Marler Retweeted The Sydney Morning Herald

    “Bridget McKenzie, said Nationals senators would not attend Monday’s meeting – reducing attendance from 21 to 16 – because of Senate estimates commitments.”

    MacKenzie been quite until now but obviously doing the ‘numbers’.

    Extra press will be needed to watch the doors outside of the Nats Party room on Monday morning while they’re covering Estimates as well.

    The ‘meeting’ could take 10 minutes or 10 hours!

    There is a flip going on and every one wants to be comfortable on the Twister sheet!

  9. Quick poll here. What outcome regarding Barnaby do you secretly hope for?

    A spill where he barely wins? More allegations and Turnbull dragged into it?
    A new by-election with Tony Windsor coming out of retirement?
    Barnaby as a back bencher joining Abbott in wrecking things?

  10. poroti

    Environmental group DUH sued city authorities in Stuttgart, in Germany’s carmaking heartland, and in Duesseldorf over levels of particulate matter exceeding European Union limits.

    Local courts ordered cities to bar diesel cars that did not conform to the latest standards on days when pollution is heavy.

    Plenty of debate about this in Germany.

    If you’ve banned older petrol vehicles, levied new petrol vehicles heavily, banned diesel vehicles and left only EVs as OK then city centres will be near car less in 5 or 6 years unless EVs very rapidly increase.

    Is there anywhere that actual EV deliveries are better than 2% of the new passenger vehicle fleet yet?

  11. By a quirk of fate I was just a block away when Reagan was shot. I have never heard such a cacaphony of sirens in my life. I had to watch the news on TV to find out what had happened, after hearing about 30 different versions between where I was when it happened and my hotel room a couple of blocks away.

  12. Trump claiming the reporting on the ‘town hall’ he attended today ‘fake news’.

    Even with the whole thing broadcast live the difference between what he said and what he thinks he said doesn’t register with him!

  13. I think the Murdoch attack is because of a bigger scandal lurking just off the scene at present. Maybe something to do with the MDB? I’d like it to drag on long enough for that to be revealed. Then out of parliament altogether and charges.

  14. National Party leaders and DPMs generally wait till the last plane out of Canberra is boarded and their tenure is finished before they reveal their elaborate plans to become very wealthy. Barnaby is not subtle. A huge bumbling drongo with a swag of indiscretions and confusion unable at this moment of confluence to find clarity nor a way forward.
    Ultimately the Nationals, the Coalition and the voters will willingly bid farewell to another hardly rare casualty of the big house.
    Barnaby may have enough supporters and sponsors to ensure his future with some time beyond the spotlight a healthy option.
    Norwester, the MDB seems destined to be the catastrophe as is so often prophesied and Barnaby may be better served by distancing himself from its meandering course.

  15. I’d like to see a Royal Commission into the MDB. Not just to identify and reduce the corruption, but also to provide a better socio-economic and environmental management framework for future management of the river systems.

  16. Norwester says:
    Thursday, February 22, 2018 at 11:48 pm

    With Joe’s eleventy calculator involved, what could possibly go wrong?

    Eleventy would be stupid enough to do the loans in US dollars and let the super funds take the exchange risk; this lot would then ban hedging just to make sure we are screwed.

    This of course would be done against public service advise and the advice of anyone independent of the cock up.

  17. a r @ #2520 Thursday, February 22nd, 2018 – 11:02 pm

    poroti @ #2515 Thursday, February 22nd, 2018 – 9:53 pm


    This guy was “a two-term Congressman from Michigan. He was also the Director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan.” so not a lefty, he reckons…

    According to Facebook itself, the seemingly ubiquitous social media ad campaign depicted in the indictment was nothing of the kind. It actually amounted to just 3,000 placements at a cost of $100,000 – more than half of which were purchased after the election, and 25% of which ended-up in its dead letter office (unread)……………………..Most of the cited gleanings amounted to crude word bombs, often in broken English, that presumably even Kim Kardashian’s 59 million Twitter followers could see through.

    “Hillary is a Satan, and her crimes and lies had proved just how evil she is”

    So the argument has shifted from “there was no collusion” to “we did our sedition on a shoestring budget and with crappy editing, so it’s fine”? Interesting.

    The people who were sucked in by it were/are not very smart. So their perception of grammar fails would be minimal. So it’s a spurious defense to suggest they would have twigged for that reason. Anyway, it’s already been proven that they did fall for the Russian trolls.

  18. Not to be outdone by BeetRooter and his philandering ways, NSW Liberal Minister for Fair Trading has found a way around Malcolm’s putative ban on politicians bonking their staff. Cue tut tut from a po-faced ESJ

    NSW Fair Trading Minister Matt Kean has been caught out by his girlfriend — who works for Malcolm Turnbull — sending explicit text messages asking a fellow state Liberal MP for sex.

    Mr Kean last night told The Daily Telegraph that his two-year relationship­ with Caitlin Keage, a senior prime ministerial adviser, had ended suddenly in “spectacular” fashion.

    The Telegraph reported his sexts were exposed yesterday by Ms Keage, who posted online screenshots of exchanges between Mr Kean and Eleni Petinos­, the MP for the southern Sydney seat of Miranda.

    In the exchange, which took place just days after Christmas, Mr Kean interrupts Ms Petinos “playing a board game with my family” by saying he is “tempted to drive down to see you”.

    “Miss me huh? lol” Ms Petinos replies. “Yup. Really need to f..k you,” he says.

    Ms Petinos says he already has “CK for that”. “Is that a no,” he says. She tells him, “it’s that time of the month”. “OK come up later x.”

    The next day, on December­ 28, Ms Petinos texted Mr Kean saying, “just got your Christmas card — you’re absolutely gorgeous — love you xx”.

    Mr Kean last night told The Telegraph: “I am deeply sorry my relationship with Caitlin has ended in such a spectacular and sad fashion. I wish her all the best.”

    Premier Gladys Berejiklian and Mr Turnbull are together­ in Washington as part of a delegation meeting Donald­ Trump.

  19. Trump on verge of firing national security adviser after he admitted Russia’s role in US election

    President Donald Trump could fire his national security adviser, Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, after he said that evidence of Russia’s interference in the 2016 U.S. election was “incontrovertible.”

    Sources close to the White House told CNN that Pentagon officials were “quietly” trying to find a job for McMaster in the Pentagon.

    “Several sources told CNN that the push for a replacement comes after months of personal tension between McMaster and Trump,” the report said

  20. It looks like Peta Credlin, in concert with The Australian, and even after Tony Abbott’s Royal Commission witch hunt, is trying to gin up 20 year old accusations against the leader of the federal Labor Party:

    Sky News Australia

    Verified account

    11h11 hours ago
    .@AndrewBurrell7: Former WA major fraud squad officer David ­McAlpine claims his investigation into the AWU slush fund 20 years ago was ‘subverted’ due to ‘political interference’.


    They’re bringing up Julia Gillard and her boyfriend in the AWU again ffs!

  21. US judge denies Paul Manafort’s request to modify his bail terms

    President Donald Trump’s former campaign manager, Paul Manafort, lost a bid on Thursday to modify the terms of his bail, after a federal judge said his proposal to pledge certain properties as collateral was “unsatisfactory.”

    Manafort and Trump’s former deputy campaign manager, Rick Gates, were indicted in October as part of Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s probe into whether the Trump campaign colluded with Russia in Moscow’s alleged meddling in the 2016 presidential election.

    They face charges including conspiracy to launder money, conspiracy to defraud the United States and failure to register as foreign agents for political work they did representing a pro-Russia Ukrainian party.

  22. I dunno . . .

    I’m not too impressed with a media campaign to drive someone out of office because . . . well, just because it can.

    And worse, has stated, that this vendetta will continue until the person goes.

    WTF does the Daily Telegraph think it is?? Who said it was the arbiter of which elected representative gets to stay or not.

    If Barnaby Joyce, or anyone else, has rorted the system, then by all means expose it. Properly. With facts. But not this dribbling daily drip shite.

    Any, anyway, where was the furore about the absence of a fruit in bowl? A tea-towel doesn’t cut it.

  23. Trump Suggests Giving Bonuses to Trained and Armed Teachers

    President Trump again promoted arming specially trained teachers, saying some could get bonuses, but rejected active-shooter drills to prepare for a rampage.

    “I want certain highly adept people, people who understand weaponry, guns” to have a permit to carry concealed firearms in schools, Mr. Trump said during his second White House meeting in two days to discuss how to respond to the shooting that killed 17 people at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School.

  24. It’s not a matter of being familiar with guns – knowing how to aim them accurately, lock and load them, even strip them down and reassemble them in 20 seconds (or whatever).

    It’s a matter of being able to do this under fire, in an extremely stressful situation with people around you screaming in pain, gushing blood and brains and panicking uncontrollably, then to analyse the threat, seek cover, identify the target and (most difficult of all) to actually pull the trigger with the intent of shooting to kill another human being.

    No amount of target practice will teach that, unless Trump is suggesting teachers do military-style basic training in some kind of boot camp situation as part of their education degrees or post-tertiary studies.

    In any case, the concept of teachers who can take out a high school shooter, who can go from “maths” to “machine gun” mode virtually instantly also involves the concept that some of their students have already been killed. If it doesn’t, then we have the scenario of pre-emptive strikes, of teachers shooting their students on suspicion, to contend with. That would be a whole new kind of gun hell.

  25. sprocket_ @ #2496 Thursday, February 22nd, 2018 – 7:14 pm

    Right Wing poster boy Andrew Hastie opining on BeetRooter..

    Hastie- “No one is perfect but as I said the office of Deputy Prime Minister is the second highest in the land, it requires character, and I believe he (Joyce) has failed that character test.”

    I really hope at Melissa Teede wins Canning for Labor at the next election. Hastie is talkng some sense here, and it’s not the first time I’ve seen him talking sense when Trumble et. al are loosing their heads.

  26. “I dunno . . .
    I’m not too impressed with a media campaign to drive someone out of office because . . . well, just because it can.”

    They did it to Sam D with a lot lot less material from Sam, it is the public reactions that gives them the power not the ink or the words

  27. Pseudo Cud Chewer @ #2568 Thursday, February 22nd, 2018 – 9:16 pm

    Quick poll here. What outcome regarding Barnaby do you secretly hope for?

    A spill where he barely wins? More allegations and Turnbull dragged into it?
    A new by-election with Tony Windsor coming out of retirement?
    Barnaby as a back bencher joining Abbott in wrecking things?

    I’ll take #1 followed by #3 please

  28. Ante Meridian @ #2408 Thursday, February 22nd, 2018 – 6:26 pm

    There’s nothing to stop the Nationals from electing a senator as their leader. Only the Prime Minister and the Treasurer have to be MHRs, and even that’s convention rather than law.

    And if they really insist on having a member of the HoR as leader, they could parachute someone into the seat of New England, assuming they can find enough dynamite to blast Joyce out.


    My gut feeling is that if Barnaby is chucked out he will quit politics. Not much in it for him as a back bencher. He was very ambitious for the leadership role.

    Now the Nats could try to put another person into New England, but I think they would lose. Windsor is still in the wings and any competent independent would stand a chance – even a Katter person could do it.

    Much would depend on when the actual election will be. at Maximum we are

    Gorks @ #2534 Thursday, February 22nd, 2018 – 10:25 pm

    It’s clear Russians targeted Bernie supporters, African Americans and also promoted Greens in an effort to hurt Hillary’s campaign. Also used data dumps from the hacking of senior Democrats.

    Social media manipulation, including narrative setting on comment sections, upvoting/downvoting in reddit, spamming Twitter are all very real.

    This has also been done in Turkey after Gezi Park protests were organized over social media. Troll farms do exist and I think they have been very effective.

    Gorka, AR, Cameron and others

    Try to think this through logically.

    Are you saying (you seem to be) that if in the upcoming Russian presidential election thirteen Americans place anti Putin stuff or stuff in support of one or all of his opponents that his is election tampering? So if Radio Free Europe accepts an add from anti Putin people or if two US students in Russia go to anti Putin demonstrations and then post stuff on facebook (in Russian) to promote Putin’s opponents or just to sow chaos, that this is election tampering?

    If some supporters of Putin’s opponents retweet this stuff or forward it by emails or use in in election material, they are being duped and if they KNOWINGLY did so knowing it was of US origin then they are guilty of collusion?Should they be jailed?

    If Putin then indicted these thirteen Americans and a “Democracy Research Institute” that would be OK with you. No issues of free speech or Russian suppression of such speech?

    What penalties would be appropriate?

    Basically what Mueller has done is to give Putin open slather to suppress anti Putin stuff on the internet wherever it can be even mildly attributed to a US source. Can you see this?

    What if those anti Clinton “bots” had been Australian activists – perhaps members of a socialist group, or one of the passionately Right wing anti abortion groups? Would that have been treason and collusion.

    What if one of our brilliant cartoonists was retweeted by many in the US and they were anti Trump or Hillary during the next election, is that collusion?

  29. What a lucky fellow that Barnbaby Joyce is is. Rent free places keep falling from the sky for him.

    Deputy PM Barnaby Joyce and former media adviser hug the Queensland coast in 11-day road-trip in government car over Christmas before returning to a rent-free $4000 a week Coffs Harbour beach-house supplied by govt contractor #auspol

    — Kimberley Kitching (@kimbakit) February 22, 2018

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