Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Nearly two-thirds of respondents want Barnaby Joyce out as Nationals leader, as the Coalition and Malcolm Turnbull lose their gains from the year’s first poll a fortnight ago.

Newspoll has Labor’s lead back at 53-47, after its first new poll for the year a fortnight ago had it down to 52-48. The Coalition is down two on the primary vote to 36%, with Labor steady on 37%, the Greens steady on 10%, and One Nation bouncing back three points after a recent slump to 8%. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 45-31 to 40-33. All we have in terms of leadership approval at this stage are that Malcolm Turnbull’s net rating has weakened from minus 13% to minus 18%. Also featured is a finding that 65% of respondents believe Barnaby Joyce should resign as leader of the Nationals, which breaks down into a lot of detail I’m finding hard to parse from Simon Benson’s report in The Australian. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1632.

UPDATE: Malcolm Turnbull is down three on approval to 34% and up four on disapproval 54%; Bill Shorten is steady on 34% approval and up two on disapproval to 54%. Only 23% agreed that Barnaby Joyce should remain Nationals leader, with 29% favouring him resigning from the front bench, 15% bowing out at the next election, and 21% quitting parliament immediately. The poll also finds 64% support for a ban on sexual relations between politicians and their employees, with 25% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,598 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  2. I’ll be talking to Kaila on yr behalf @person. Promises of advancement denied are cruel and they should be ashamed of themselves.

    Did they tell you the one about how yr the pea for the next vacancy? Shocking Behaviour!

  8. Curious fact. The character of Speaker of the House in the movie Olympus has Fallen (played by Morgan Freeman) is called Allan Trumbull.

  9. Best profit season for years and, and, and… wages are stagnant.

    So much Coalition cognitive dissonance in relation to the impact of corporate tax cuts on wages.

  11. There’s nothing to stop the Nationals from electing a senator as their leader. Only the Prime Minister and the Treasurer have to be MHRs, and even that’s convention rather than law.

    And if they really insist on having a member of the HoR as leader, they could parachute someone into the seat of New England, assuming they can find enough dynamite to blast Joyce out.

  12. Boerwar

    So much Coalition cognitive dissonance in relation to the impact of corporate tax cuts on wages.

    Not at all, they are just repeating the lines their corporate owners and sponsors have paid them to speak.

  14. CTaR1
    Reading the ‘Battle of Long Tan’ and the ‘Siege of Khe Sanh’ ATM, following having watched Burn’s ‘Vietnam War’ series.
    The political and strategic levels were more often than not staggeringly incompetent.
    The tactical level (lieutenant, captain and major) was both for the Aussies and the marines, (in general) more than competent, IMO.
    Above that it was patchy.
    At the generals/strategic level it was often staggeringly incompetent.
    IMO, the soldiers sacrificed to the moloch of utter political cynicism and strategic blunders.

  21. Bw

    The race between MacArthur and the sailing USN in the Pacific along with gross interference by politicians in WWII quite amazing and then to follow it up with even more politics and even more amazing intelligence failures in Vietnam must have left the field ranks like a completely separate force out there in the ‘yonder’ not knowing if there was any overall ‘aim’ and if there was, were they connected with it, or just some sort of diversion?

  22. I think Trump’s notes aren’t a big deal. All politicians get talking points before interviews and meetings. The dumb things is letting the cameras see them.
    Trump isn’t very good on his feet and clearly doesn’t really care about the kids enough to trust himself to wing it.
    It’s his actions in legislation that will matter.

  25. Boerwar says:

    Bout Boer it means we have the best government money can buy. The PMship alone cost $1,750,000 and what a bargain it was. must up the sale price next time.

  27. I’ve been watching the 7:30 report for the last couple of weeks after not watching it for about a year.

    Whatever it had in the way of get up and go has gone.

  28. CTar1

    Have you read ‘Vietnam:The 10,000 Day War” ? The lead up to the war is even more depressing in its illustrating how it came about in the first place.

    Re the way it was run. Our very own BK would give a good slapping around of McNamara for the number of Deming’s ‘rules’ that he broke. Things like not setting quotas, hello body counts. What happened was exactly what Deming warned “quotas’ would do, get shit data fed to management who then made decisions on shit data.

    Eliminate management by objectives.
    Look at how the process is carried out, not just numerical targets. Deming said that production targets encourage high output and low quality.

    https://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newSTR_75.htm

  30. jenauthor @ #2274 Thursday, February 22nd, 2018 – 4:05 pm

    SK The idea that low income earners might ‘prefer a cheaper option’ is exactly a two tier system because ‘prefer’ is often not an option.

    Doctors are far from infallible but I wouldn’t trust my health diagnosis to a nurse. While this example is somewhat dated: when I was a very new mother with my daughter – the community nurse examined my daughter and declared that her “vagina opening was too small and later a doctor was likely to need to cut it”. Despite initially thinking she was a nutter, I stewed on this for some weeks until I finally went and asked my Dr. I didn’t preface my question by saying the nurse told me this, but when he examined her he all but laughed at the stupidity of the idea saying my daughter was completely normal. Needless to say I was completely embarrassed because he thought it was my notion.

    Imagine a low income earning first-time mother without the wherewithal to go and check with a Dr — what she naively might do to ‘fix’ the problem?

    That is quite a story Jen

    When I had my first baby he was caesarian and I was unable to get out of bed for 24 hrs or so so he was completely in the hands of the nurses. Because that was the “doctrine” of the time they put him face down to sleep.

    He ended with a red raw nose that looked terrible I still have the baby photos naturally. The Doctor was furious and I think told the nurses off. Once I was mobile he was always placed on his side.

  31. CTaR1

    Yep.

    My view, FWIW is that the last truly ‘national’ war any Western nation fought was during WW2.

    All subsequent ventures have been accidental wars, or part time wars, or wars with limited objectives or wars to save some presidential idiot’s face.

    By now every enemy knows perfectly well that the best thing to do is just to hang in there until the West gets sick of it and walks away.

    The long term war trap for us is that by now most of the Australian population genuinely thinks that wars can be part time, bit and pieces, symbolic, fought over there, and be virtually risk-free.

  32. Think for a moment the headlines in the Murdoch press, 2GB etc if the local equivalent said this. Mass head exploding in 10,9,8,………. 😆 😆 😆

    ‘Longer sentences, more prisoners – it doesn’t work and it has to stop’

    Minister of Justice Andrew Little has laid out a vision for criminal justice reform which sees sentencing law relaxed and a rejection of “tough on crime”-style politics.,

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11999980

  33. The gun lobby in the USA is a business that makes a lot on money. They fund pro gun advertising, donate to those in public office and use every argument to protect and expand their business model

    In AUS we have seen the same by groups such as the mining council. Argue for yourself, deride solar, wind hydro etc. Attack anyone who disagrees with you.

    WTF do you want a rifle in your cupboard when your kid is at a concert or school 10 kms away being shot at by someone else who is permitted to carry a firearm.

    Good luck to the youth if America, they have a rich and powerful Corporation that wants them stopped in their tracks.

  34. The ABC has been told the complainant is not a WA Nationals MP or staffer but she holds a prominent role in the WA regions.

    A Lady Mayor?

  35. poroti

    True. True.

    How is your new set of Gubbies going, BTW?

    I was just then musing on something that is not exactly a cheerful thought: The Liberals are riven. The Nationals are riven. The Liberals and the Nationals are riven. The PHONs are riven. The Greens are riven. Vic Labor is riven. The Lambie Network is riven. Albo looks like he might like a bit of riven in Fed Labor.

    Where the fuck did all the glue go?

  40. WTF do you want a rifle in your cupboard when your kid is at a concert or school 10 kms away being shot at by someone else who is permitted to carry a firearm.

    And it doesn’t answer the question of why civilians need access to semi-automatic assault weapons. Handguns are one thing, but there is no logical argument for your ordinary, everyday Jo being able to have ready access to weaponry designed for military combat scenarios.

  41. Well, I’m still staggered that theUS President would be taking in dot points like that on this occasion.

    When I think about it, the fact this turned into a televised extravaganza is sick anyway. The whole point was the last one “I hear you”.

    But displaying them like that (seems like at the start of the event) makes me suspicious.

  42. Boerwar

    Osama’s plan has worked a treat. As he explained to , I think Robert Fisk, he wanted to provoke the US into over reacting and suck them into a conflict which would see them bled dry of “their treasure”. Must be due for another US$1,000,000,000,000 to ring up on the tab soon.

  48. mikeh:

    Personally I find the fact that Trump needs a cheat sheet to help him respond like a human being in a situation with children and students a big deal. As I said, how comedownment that Trump’s base were publicly critical of those teens in the media the past week calling them crisis actors and the like.

    And don’t forget the reactionary conservatives both in the US and here used to attack Obama for his teleprompter use during formal speeches. What a joke that their guy in the WH can’t even be trusted without dot point notes when meeting with victims in the wake of a national tragedy.

  49. Bw

    Sliding into the US way of viewing it’s military.

    A separate state with it’s own uncuttable budget out there somewhere doing whatever they do … and their failures more due to politicians who continuously want to have them have bigger numbers of this and that rather than to consolidate a well maintained and trained military.

    poroti – I gave up reading stuff about Yanks at war about a decade or so ago.

    The ‘trend’ is clear for them.

    WWII half a win after the Russians won the first part. Korea a draw of sorts and Vietnam a clear loss and subsequently loss, loss and loss with only 1990 showing much promise i.e. knowing when to ‘stop’.

  50. Boerwar

    Up 5.4% since the election. Interestingly all the increase has come from the minors be they Greens or NZ First. Perhaps a lesson,or not, for the locals about what happens when you make a firm commitment to “progressive” policies.

    Had a good LOL this morning. Apparently free Tertiary education, currently for first year before increasing, is “inequitable” !! Some Uni spiv made the claim on the basis that disadvantaged students could get in for just $700 a year while the others paid thousands but now they both get in for free !!

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