Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Nearly two-thirds of respondents want Barnaby Joyce out as Nationals leader, as the Coalition and Malcolm Turnbull lose their gains from the year’s first poll a fortnight ago.

Newspoll has Labor’s lead back at 53-47, after its first new poll for the year a fortnight ago had it down to 52-48. The Coalition is down two on the primary vote to 36%, with Labor steady on 37%, the Greens steady on 10%, and One Nation bouncing back three points after a recent slump to 8%. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 45-31 to 40-33. All we have in terms of leadership approval at this stage are that Malcolm Turnbull’s net rating has weakened from minus 13% to minus 18%. Also featured is a finding that 65% of respondents believe Barnaby Joyce should resign as leader of the Nationals, which breaks down into a lot of detail I’m finding hard to parse from Simon Benson’s report in The Australian. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1632.

UPDATE: Malcolm Turnbull is down three on approval to 34% and up four on disapproval 54%; Bill Shorten is steady on 34% approval and up two on disapproval to 54%. Only 23% agreed that Barnaby Joyce should remain Nationals leader, with 29% favouring him resigning from the front bench, 15% bowing out at the next election, and 21% quitting parliament immediately. The poll also finds 64% support for a ban on sexual relations between politicians and their employees, with 25% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,598 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Re: landmines

    You just need to travel through a Country like Cambodia to see how prevalent the problem still is.

    It’s over 40 years since the fall of the Khmer Rouge but you still see many younger than this who have obviously been injured by one.:(

  2. According to Murdoch’s Oz:

    Broad to move motion to oust Joyce
    4:40PMRACHEL BAXENDALE, BEN PACKHAM
    Nationals MP Andrew Broad says Barnaby Joyce should resign and will move a motion to remove him as leader on Monday.

  7. Nationals MP Andrew Broad says Barnaby Joyce should resign and will move a motion to remove him as leader on Monday.

    He still needs 10 of his colleagues to vote yes for a spill motion and then needs an alternate leader candidate. So far only Dowd or whoever he is has said he’d put his hand up, and I doubt he’d have the numbers.

  8. It would be hilarious if Andrew Broad’s motion to remove Barnaby fails. What do they do then.? Who choses the candidates for pre-selection for his seat.?
    Barnaby has made the decision he is going to stay whatever it takes.

  10. The ACT's Auditor-General has found the Territory Government may have breached the Planning and Development Act in selling a block of land to the CFMEU-linked Tradies Club – and that the taxpayer could have lost value of up to $2.6m @abccanberra— James Fettes (@JamesFettes) February 22, 2018

  11. @Confessions – I think the optics are bad and I wonder whether this is designed to force waverers to show their hands. It’s kind of it, if you think he shouldn’t be there, this is your chance.

  13. Shouldn’t you be directing that to ESJ ?

    I think it was aimed at me.

    I do believe there are a some GP visits that can be adequately dealt with by a nurse or a pharmacist. For example, pharmacies can now issue sick leave certificates.

    There are other examples.

    This is not creating a 2 tier system.

  17. J341983 @ #2261 Thursday, February 22nd, 2018 – 1:52 pm

    @Confessions – I think the optics are bad and I wonder whether this is designed to force waverers to show their hands. It’s kind of it, if you think he shouldn’t be there, this is your chance.

    Without an obvious replacement it basically says I think your current position is untenable under any circumstance. 🙂

  21. He is gone.

    Right, what next? Resign all together or to the backbench.

    Can Turnbull afford another back bench crank who knows all the goss?

  25. I think the optics are bad and I wonder whether this is designed to force waverers to show their hands. It’s kind of it, if you think he shouldn’t be there, this is your chance.

    I’ll believe a spill motion succeeds when it happens.

  27. SK The idea that low income earners might ‘prefer a cheaper option’ is exactly a two tier system because ‘prefer’ is often not an option.

    Doctors are far from infallible but I wouldn’t trust my health diagnosis to a nurse. While this example is somewhat dated: when I was a very new mother with my daughter – the community nurse examined my daughter and declared that her “vagina opening was too small and later a doctor was likely to need to cut it”. Despite initially thinking she was a nutter, I stewed on this for some weeks until I finally went and asked my Dr. I didn’t preface my question by saying the nurse told me this, but when he examined her he all but laughed at the stupidity of the idea saying my daughter was completely normal. Needless to say I was completely embarrassed because he thought it was my notion.

    Imagine a low income earning first-time mother without the wherewithal to go and check with a Dr — what she naively might do to ‘fix’ the problem?

  29. https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/f-that-marles-the-bitter-text-threats-behind-alleged-alp-brawl-20180222-p4z1a1.html

    Labor factional warlord Adem Somyurek texted a stream of abusive and bitter threats against a federal MP in the lead-up to Wednesday’s alleged altercation between Mr Somyurek and a government minister in state Parliament.

    ::::
    If the allegations were to be proven, they would cause political havoc for Labor nine months out from the state election and as Mr Somyurek – a factional powerbroker – seeks to realign the Victorian ALP.

    Mr Somyurek’s anger stems from the belief that federal MP Mr Marles is undermining a factional realignment that involves tearing up the existing so-called “stability pact” between elements of the party’s Left and Right factions.

    Late last year, Mr Somyurek walked away from a near certain return to the Victorian cabinet to pursue his vision of a new factional partnership in Victoria that would deliver him considerable influence while threatening the power of key ALP players, including Kim Carr and Stephen Conroy, and undermining the standing of Premier Daniel Andrews.

    Mr Somyurek’s intention was to shift greater control of the party to a coalition of MPs and union leaders that he had assembled in a bold move of political strategy that at one point late last year appeared to have the backing of opposition leader Bill Shorten.

  31. Pegasus @ #2279 Thursday, February 22nd, 2018 – 5:06 pm

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/f-that-marles-the-bitter-text-threats-behind-alleged-alp-brawl-20180222-p4z1a1.html

    Labor factional warlord Adem Somyurek texted a stream of abusive and bitter threats against a federal MP in the lead-up to Wednesday’s alleged altercation between Mr Somyurek and a government minister in state Parliament.

    ::::
    If the allegations were to be proven, they would cause political havoc for Labor nine months out from the state election and as Mr Somyurek – a factional powerbroker – seeks to realign the Victorian ALP.

    Mr Somyurek’s anger stems from the belief that federal MP Mr Marles is undermining a factional realignment that involves tearing up the existing so-called “stability pact” between elements of the party’s Left and Right factions.

    Late last year, Mr Somyurek walked away from a near certain return to the Victorian cabinet to pursue his vision of a new factional partnership in Victoria that would deliver him considerable influence while threatening the power of key ALP players, including Kim Carr and Stephen Conroy, and undermining the standing of Premier Daniel Andrews.

    Mr Somyurek’s intention was to shift greater control of the party to a coalition of MPs and union leaders that he had assembled in a bold move of political strategy that at one point late last year appeared to have the backing of opposition leader Bill Shorten.

    As always, you refuse to mention the shambles that is the Greens internecine hatreds in NSW.

  32. http://insidestory.org.au/vocational-education-policy-is-failing-and-its-not-hard-to-see-why/

    Vocational education in Australia is in crisis. Traditional on-the-job training, through apprenticeships and traineeships, is in decline. Technical and further education funding has been slashed, leading to the closure of many TAFE colleges and large-scale loss of teaching staff. Billions of dollars have been wasted on ideologically driven experiments in market competition and commercial provision, most notoriously through the rorting of the FEE-HELP system.

    :::
    The experience of the past decade shows that the problems in the South Australian TAFE system are merely symptoms of failed policies designed by state and federal governments. They should be reversed urgently.

  34. Abbott was a dead man walking the moment people started going for spill motions, even when he was against an empty chair and Turnbull wasn’t yet brave enough to go for it. Joyce should but won’t take a hint.

    The ALP’s victorian factional soap opera doesn’t interest me. I assume similar shit goes on in all parties all the time, just not normally in front of witnesses.

  35. Confessions
    “So far only Dowd or whoever he is has said he’d put his hand up, and I doubt he’d have the numbers.”

    Ken O’Dowd holds one of the most marginal seats in the country (Flynn). One would have thought he has higher priorities. Hopefully he’ll be gone at the next election.

  36. Albanese, Labor and Adani:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/feb/22/anthony-albanese-hard-to-see-adani-project-going-ahead

    Anthony Albanese says Labor should not single out existing projects, like the Adani coalmine, that have already gone through approval processes “and then retrospectively change existing laws, which would have ramifications across the board”.

    The Labor frontbencher has effectively ruled out Labor overhauling the Environmental Protection Biodiversity and Conversation Act as part of a strategy to boost legal options of killing the controversial Queensland coal project.

  39. The New South Wales Greens upper house MP Jeremy Buckingham has successfully shut down a complaint backed by Senator Lee Rhiannon to oust him from the party for criticising her on the ABC’s Four Corners.

    Buckingham threatened to take legal action against the party if it proceeded to hear the complaint, on the grounds that it was procedurally unfair.

    The threat of legal action has persuaded the conflict resolution committee – a randomly selected group of four office-holders – to fold and recommend mediation of the complaint instead.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/feb/22/greens-mp-jeremy-buckingham-survives-complaint-backed-by-lee-rhiannon

    He threatened legal action against one of his own party members? She wanted to oust him from the party for criticising her?

    If you can’t govern yourselves you have no business sitting as elected members.

  40. “Traditionally many men in many armies will shoot to miss. ”
    This is considered by many to be based on very poor evidence in one study. I don’t know the retails but I know many historians dispute it.
    Clearly it’s not the easiest research to carry out.
    Hard to get ethics approval.

  41. poroti

    Can’t remember the exact number but for US infantry I think it was only 15% fired during a battle.

    Without wanting to do WWII again this the main problem with MacArthur’s 1942 US Army in New Guinea. They didn’t ‘attack’. As you say, the reasons for this were part of loads of studies done post Korea.

    So he simply discarded them (and the AIF because they showed them up) and went north with US Marines only.

  45. “I am sure the doctors on PB will have a different view.”
    Not this doctor. Most visits to GPs don’t improve anyone’s health. The problem is trying to get people to go when they need to and not go when they don’t need to.
    Nurses could do a lot of GP functions if appropriately trained in their scope of practice.
    Frankly, nurses can also quite a lot of specialists jobs also.

  46. In the car I heard part of the anti-gun discussion.

    The NRA rep (female) was insisting that if every female could carry a shotgun, she would have a means of defence in case of rape.

    The mind boggles. Carry it down her bra, perhaps?

  47. AM

    Landmines are usually not designed to kill anyone, but rather to blow a leg off. That’s because a maimed soldier is more of a burden to the enemy than a dead soldier.

    You should try this out on what’s left of B company 5RAR after an encounter with some on 21 Feb 1967.

  48. This is what happens when those superior economic managers, aka the Tories, bring their skills to bear. In this case handing over management of a car park to a private operator who gets paid whether the car park is used or not.

    https://www.perthnow.com.au/politics/state-politics/wa-taxpayers-pay-20-million-for-empty-carpark-at-perth-childrens-hospital-ng-b88753522z

    If I was an MP, I would want to know the names of every person involved in this deal. They should be publicly shamed and if they are public servants still working for the government they should be sacked.

  49. If you can’t govern yourselves you have no business sitting as elected members.

    You do realise how amusing many would find this in regards to the Coalition and Labor.

  50. We’re already seeing primary health care services evolve beyond the GP clinic. It used to be you had to see your doctor to have a meds check or a blood pressure check or diabetes risk screening. Now these can be performed in chemists by pharmacists. I have a flu shot every year but can’t remember the last time this was actually administered by a GP – an RN comes to our workplace April each year for staff, and even in the community this would be administered by nurses.

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