Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Nearly two-thirds of respondents want Barnaby Joyce out as Nationals leader, as the Coalition and Malcolm Turnbull lose their gains from the year’s first poll a fortnight ago.

Newspoll has Labor’s lead back at 53-47, after its first new poll for the year a fortnight ago had it down to 52-48. The Coalition is down two on the primary vote to 36%, with Labor steady on 37%, the Greens steady on 10%, and One Nation bouncing back three points after a recent slump to 8%. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 45-31 to 40-33. All we have in terms of leadership approval at this stage are that Malcolm Turnbull’s net rating has weakened from minus 13% to minus 18%. Also featured is a finding that 65% of respondents believe Barnaby Joyce should resign as leader of the Nationals, which breaks down into a lot of detail I’m finding hard to parse from Simon Benson’s report in The Australian. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1632.

UPDATE: Malcolm Turnbull is down three on approval to 34% and up four on disapproval 54%; Bill Shorten is steady on 34% approval and up two on disapproval to 54%. Only 23% agreed that Barnaby Joyce should remain Nationals leader, with 29% favouring him resigning from the front bench, 15% bowing out at the next election, and 21% quitting parliament immediately. The poll also finds 64% support for a ban on sexual relations between politicians and their employees, with 25% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,598 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  8. problem is many people don’t like mal but can’t bring themselves to vote for shorten – he lacks appeal (rudd was MUCH more engaging) – truly poll gap should be much wider by now, 55/45 at very least – we pay a high price for bill’s careerism – two careerists in charge of oz …

  10. William is there a breakdown of the Coalition into Nationals & Libs … be interesting to know which side was hurt most by the last week.

  14. No one on here has a mania about election of foriegn politicians.

    My mistake,

    Its a mania about the (deified) POTUS who, in His disciple Question’s words “Affects Everyone”. Like the divine Augustus. (if you have that religion)

    According to my googling its something like “Próedros ton Inoménon Politeión mania”

  15. Federal polls dont move with wild swings anymore.That 53-47 would probably be worth 56-44 years ago.Voters seems more strongly rusted onto their vote nowadays federally than they ever were and their minds take weeks,even months to change.

  19. jenauthor:

    It’ll be a month/6 weeks for number 30 Mr Newbie. Baby not due for a couple of months

    Oh, I thought it was due in April for some reason.

  21. Geoff, I would have expected something like that next week, but I also agree with SD’s post. Polls are not as fickle these days. Not since Morgan stopped.

  24. Geoff,
    Shorten is not a natural in front of a microphone, but has plenty of perspicacity.

    Human’s tend to think “I don’t do it, so it must be easy” on just about everything. Shorten is doing a very hard job perfectly well.

  27. question

    one has plenty of comp[arison when it comes to leader – its little to do with one’s own ability – a leader needs a public persona

  30. a leader needs a public persona

    Well that would inform Turnbull’s much bigger problems (read the comments on the Newspoll). 🙂

  32. ScoMo must know its nearly all over.
    Massive Company tax cuts and minor Personal tax cuts. Going to an election with that!!!
    If he is stupid enough to do it round the other way, he could probable pull back a few middle of the road voters who have deserted. But lets see how the electorate feels about his trickle down rhetoric. Could be a blood bath if the opposition can get its message out, CPG and MSM not withstanding.

  37. The Coalition have little chance of winning the next election. With Joyce hanging on, the Coalition have no chance. At some point closer to an election, the parliamentary members of the Liberal party will exert pressure to force Turnbull to act to remove Joyce. If Turnbull doesn’t act his party will remove him from his position as PM.
    The Nationals will complain about their independence and the their right to choose the DPM but this upstart minor party, with privilege and unwarranted influence will be set straight soon enough.
    About the only person too dumb to see the writing on the wall is Barnaby. If Joyce is sincere with his endless apologies he will remove himself from politics. As they say he can go quietly or not but it’s more than certain that Joyce is going. For his families, his party, the Coalition and the Australian public the sooner the better.
    Barnaby could do far worse than forget any pride he may have remaining, ring Gina and get on with a beckoning new life.
    What an incredibly undignified mess created by Joyce, some of which can be repaired with Joyce’s departure.

  38. When all you can shout is ‘debt and deficit’ then want to add another $65B, are you brain dead?
    Definately not a brain wave there, maybe a tumor.
    Labor will need all their skills to fix this mess. Chris Bowen centre stage, mammoth job ahead.

  39. bc Monday, February 19th, 2018 – 12:32 am Comment #20

    I just caught up with Planet America. Some of their statistics on life expectancy, and on gun violence were interesting.

    I watch it very infrequently but it always looks that comedian Chas Licciardello is numerate and a lot smarter than the ABCs in-house “United States Studies Institute” representative John Barron.

  40. CTar1 says Monday, February 19, 2018 at 1:19 am

    I watch it very infrequently but it always looks that comedian Chas Licciardello is numerate and a lot smarter than the ABCs in-house “United States Studies Institute” representative John Barron.

    I just checked Licciardello’s Wikipedia entry:

    He graduated from the University of Sydney with a Bachelor of Laws and a Bachelor of Science majoring in physics and computer science. He met his wife, Dr Jocelyn Laurence, in a physics laboratory.

  41. This report now up https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/barnaby-joyce-affair-nationals-faithful-turn-on-one-of-their-own/news-story/f246503b2b4760b1da71c0aa13082500?from=htc_rss&utm_content=SocialFlow&utm_campaign=EditorialSF&utm_source=TheAustralian&utm_medium=Twitter (probably paywalled) says 58% of Coalition supporters want Barnaby to step aside, compared to the 33% figure given in Benson’s article. The 33% in Benson’s article seems odd because that would mean 32% of Coalition supporters had no opinion, which with the overall undecided figure at 12% would mean virtually everybody else did.

    Please let it be so so that I may rub it in to a certain Abbott supporter on Twitter.

  42. Mr Ed Monday, February 19th, 2018 – 12:56 am Comment #32

    “ScoMo must know its nearly all over.
    Massive Company tax cuts and minor Personal tax cuts. Going to an election with that!!!”

    I think that is big Company Tax cuts this coming Budget and, if we all behave ourselves, maybe some small tax cuts for the “little people” later …

    Morrison didn’t sound very enthused about trying to sell this idea to the voters.

  44. Mr Ed Monday, February 19th, 2018 – 12:56 am Comment #32

    ScoMo must know its nearly all over.
    Massive Company tax cuts and minor Personal tax cuts. Going to an election with that!!!

    I think that is big Company Tax cuts this coming Budget and, if we all behave ourselves, maybe some small tax cuts for the “little people” later …

    Morrison didn’t sound very enthused about trying to sell this idea to the voters when he was on “Insiders” this morning.

  45. Kambah Mick Sunday, February 18th, 2018 – 11:50 pm Comment #2544

    Re Hawke. The first time I met Bob Hawke in the flesh was back in his ACTU days in about 1973. I had just walked into the “News Bar” of the long lost Wellington Hotel

    … the beer garden … still missed!

  48. A truly wild night on twitter from Trump, lashing out at critics, perceived and real – amd live tweeting FoxNews. By the way, Adam Schiff is a US Congessman from California – an example

  49. With Malcolm jetting over to meet with Dotard, they will have some international affairs to discuss. This is one of the Buffoon’s more sensible tweets last night

  50. Cat‏ @LittleBertie01 · 9h9 hours ago

    Barnaby Joyce was disqualified from parliament for dual citizenship. He was re-elected on 2 Dec 2017.
    It appears that the $3m security upgrade on his rent-free residence commenced in November 2017, while Joyce was not an MP.
    Comment @PeterDutton_MP? #auspol

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