Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Nearly two-thirds of respondents want Barnaby Joyce out as Nationals leader, as the Coalition and Malcolm Turnbull lose their gains from the year’s first poll a fortnight ago.

Newspoll has Labor’s lead back at 53-47, after its first new poll for the year a fortnight ago had it down to 52-48. The Coalition is down two on the primary vote to 36%, with Labor steady on 37%, the Greens steady on 10%, and One Nation bouncing back three points after a recent slump to 8%. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 45-31 to 40-33. All we have in terms of leadership approval at this stage are that Malcolm Turnbull’s net rating has weakened from minus 13% to minus 18%. Also featured is a finding that 65% of respondents believe Barnaby Joyce should resign as leader of the Nationals, which breaks down into a lot of detail I’m finding hard to parse from Simon Benson’s report in The Australian. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1632.

UPDATE: Malcolm Turnbull is down three on approval to 34% and up four on disapproval 54%; Bill Shorten is steady on 34% approval and up two on disapproval to 54%. Only 23% agreed that Barnaby Joyce should remain Nationals leader, with 29% favouring him resigning from the front bench, 15% bowing out at the next election, and 21% quitting parliament immediately. The poll also finds 64% support for a ban on sexual relations between politicians and their employees, with 25% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,598 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Greensborough Growler @ #2495 Thursday, February 22nd, 2018 – 10:12 pm

    I’m happy with a debate as long as it doesn’t resort to racism and bigotry.

    I am sure this will happen. But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t have the debate. We just have to try not to let such things derail it.

    Anyway, that’s enough for tonight. I may do some more investigation of where each of the parties stand tomorrow. The problem is, of course, that it is such a touchy subject that most of the parties won’t really tell you where they stand in terms of hard numbers. At least Abbott has done that.

  3. Ok, just for ESJ’s jollies, when Barnyard ran against Tony Windsor in 2016 he assembled a team of door knockers and booth workers, who were then supplemented by a bevvy of backpackers flown up from Sydney by his patron Big Gina, who paid them $1000 cash for the gig.

    As for Barnyard’s own team, he liked them so much that… well the rest is on the front pages of the nation’s press.

  4. poroti @ #2479 Thursday, February 22nd, 2018 – 9:40 pm

    C@tmomma

    The Russkiy bots can be as Putinist as they like but the notion that $5 million, can blow away the $1.6 billion is a bit of a larf. Especially as a fair amount was after the election and some were, quelle horreur, dedicated to “cute puppies’.

    Well then, you obviously don’t understand how you get people’s guard down to then be able to fleece them!

  5. What you also don’t seem to comprehend, poroti, is that it’s not a matter of how much money you spend on facebook, compared to say, on TV ads, during a campaign, but how well-targeted you are and how hard you make your targeted money work for you.

    Also, I have experience of doing it for free on facebook after the 2014 Horror Budget of Abbott and Hockey and have been allowed to see behind the facebook curtain and read how I can make my posts reach as many people as possible, and boy, you should have seen some of the numbers! Just out of my bedroom, off a standing start! So a 4 story building in Moscow, dedicated to doing it 24/7 would be well able to influence just enough voters, in just the right US States, to enable Trump to succeed. I do not doubt it at all.

  6. Ive seen reports on Twitter of a federal staffer exposing an affair between a NSW Minister and a Lib from the state politics reporter for 7 News.

    No word yet on who/what.

  7. Player One @ #2500 Thursday, February 22nd, 2018 – 10:28 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #2495 Thursday, February 22nd, 2018 – 10:12 pm

    I’m happy with a debate as long as it doesn’t resort to racism and bigotry.

    I am sure this will happen. But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t have the debate. We just have to try not to let such things derail it.

    Anyway, that’s enough for tonight. I may do some more investigation of where each of the parties stand tomorrow. The problem is, of course, that it is such a touchy subject that most of the parties won’t really tell you where they stand in terms of hard numbers. At least Abbott has done that.

    Abbott is many things. But, one thing I have observed is there is a marked difference between what he says and what he does!

  8. C@tmomma

    Much of the russkiy “sow discord” claims centred around their pointing out ‘Mercans treat coloured folk like shit and the 0.01% screw over the workers. Seems like they were just pointing out reality.

  11. Vogon Poet @ #2495 Thursday, February 22nd, 2018 – 9:09 pm

    Here’s the original if you want to compare :
    http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:3elBukmgznYJ:www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-14/company-tax-rate-cut-arguments-missing-evidence/9443874+&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=au

    Here’s a quick and dirty (and somewhat imperfect) comparison of the differences:

    https://www.diffchecker.com/BH8eoJBs

    Might as well have written an entirely new article, it looks like. Original version was the better and more accurate of the two, in my opinion.

    Completely gone are multiple paragraphs about how Qantas has paid zero tax over the past 10 years. Censorship appallingly successful!

  12. poroti @ #2508 Thursday, February 22nd, 2018 – 10:36 pm

    C@tmomma

    Much of the russkiy “sow discord” claims centred around their pointing out ‘Mercans treat coloured folk like shit and the 0.01% screw over the workers. Seems like they were just pointing out reality.

    So? And that’s the point. The loss of votes to Hillary Clinton came from, guess who? African Americans. And the flow of votes to Trump came from, guess who? Poor White Workers. Seems like a job well done by the bots and trolls. They got those people to not turn out, in one instance, and to vote against their own self interest, in the other!

    It’s all there in black and white, forensically dissected as to how they did, who they influenced and who they paid to organise for Trump. If you don’t want to believe that, then you must have some ulterior motive over and above acknowledging these facts.

  13. Edwina StJohn says:
    Thursday, February 22, 2018 at 8:27 pm

    …”Maybe the NSW ALP could help out Barnaby with the WA complaint. Curiously all the Clements era complainants were disappeared”…

    You are the Gerard Henderson of this blog.

  15. C@tmomma

    This guy was “a two-term Congressman from Michigan. He was also the Director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan.” so not a lefty, he reckons…

    According to Facebook itself, the seemingly ubiquitous social media ad campaign depicted in the indictment was nothing of the kind. It actually amounted to just 3,000 placements at a cost of $100,000 – more than half of which were purchased after the election, and 25% of which ended-up in its dead letter office (unread)……………………..Most of the cited gleanings amounted to crude word bombs, often in broken English, that presumably even Kim Kardashian’s 59 million Twitter followers could see through.

    “Hillary is a Satan, and her crimes and lies had proved just how evil she is”

    https://original.antiwar.com/David_Stockman/2018/02/21/muellers-comic-book-indictment-prosecute-great-big-nothingburger/

  17. One would think that Reachtel would be in the field for Sky News and that we will see the results tomorrow. This should be quite interesting. I think many on here expected far too much from Newspoll, given that things only seriously blew up in the Barnaby saga late last week and things just don’t impact the polls that fast. However, we’ve now had a week for it all, including the disunity, to sink in, so hoping to see a nice shift in Labor’s direction.

  18. C@tmomma

    Yeah , I be Black American and vote for Hilary “Super Predator” Clinton. Wife of Bubba Clinton who oversaw a 150% increase in Black incarceration. Oh and not only but also Welfare “reform” to kick those “welfare queen’s” arses. Guess who got screwed over by that reform ?

  20. poroti @ #2515 Thursday, February 22nd, 2018 – 9:53 pm

    C@tmomma

    This guy was “a two-term Congressman from Michigan. He was also the Director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan.” so not a lefty, he reckons…

    According to Facebook itself, the seemingly ubiquitous social media ad campaign depicted in the indictment was nothing of the kind. It actually amounted to just 3,000 placements at a cost of $100,000 – more than half of which were purchased after the election, and 25% of which ended-up in its dead letter office (unread)……………………..Most of the cited gleanings amounted to crude word bombs, often in broken English, that presumably even Kim Kardashian’s 59 million Twitter followers could see through.

    “Hillary is a Satan, and her crimes and lies had proved just how evil she is”

    https://original.antiwar.com/David_Stockman/2018/02/21/muellers-comic-book-indictment-prosecute-great-big-nothingburger/

    So the argument has shifted from “there was no collusion” to “we did our sedition on a shoestring budget and with crappy editing, so it’s fine”? Interesting.

  23. So the argument has shifted from “there was no collusion” to “we did our sedition on a shoestring budget and with crappy editing, so it’s fine”? Interesting.

    In the same way Trump has ‘massaged’ his tweets to arrive at such a view, so too have the Russian trolls and bots online.

    It’s been fascinating to watch.

  26. a r
    WHAT FARKING COLLUSION ? The bots did what bots do. The whole nothingburger was that Trump ‘colluded’ with the Russkiys. Apparently a lay down misere but after all this time and millions spent we get ? 0.1% of SFA.

  30. Would the media have let up if Barnaby had gone on leave genuinely? Likely not.

    Therefore a plausible explanation for why he’s stayed front and centre in the media despite supposedly being on leave.

    He should resign. That’s the only way this media campaign is ending.

  36. It’s clear Russians targeted Bernie supporters, African Americans and also promoted Greens in an effort to hurt Hillary’s campaign. Also used data dumps from the hacking of senior Democrats.

    Social media manipulation, including narrative setting on comment sections, upvoting/downvoting in reddit, spamming Twitter are all very real.

    This has also been done in Turkey after Gezi Park protests were organized over social media. Troll farms do exist and I think they have been very effective.

  37. steve davis:

    He’s also disgraced and obviously needs time to sort out his life. He’s had to move house and that can’t be easy with media and pregnant partner in tow.

    WTF is Barnaby hanging on for? I bet once he finally gives up the leadership the weight from his shoulders will simply dissipate almost overnight. He’ll be much happier for it and so will his partner.

  39. Vogon Poet @ #2533 Thursday, February 22nd, 2018 – 11:24 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #2527 Thursday, February 22nd, 2018 – 10:17 pm

    Vogon Poet @ #2526 Thursday, February 22nd, 2018 – 11:13 pm

    After having no real scrutiny of his career up until last week, the beetrorter must be in a state of bewilderment.

    So you have problems with a man that finally gets a permanent residency and then fucks up his whole life?

    Now I’m bewildered, no idea what you’re on about.

    Mission accomplished!

  42. Greensborough Growler @ #2537 Thursday, February 22nd, 2018 – 10:28 pm

    Vogon Poet @ #2533 Thursday, February 22nd, 2018 – 11:24 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #2527 Thursday, February 22nd, 2018 – 10:17 pm

    Vogon Poet @ #2526 Thursday, February 22nd, 2018 – 11:13 pm

    After having no real scrutiny of his career up until last week, the beetrorter must be in a state of bewilderment.

    So you have problems with a man that finally gets a permanent residency and then fucks up his whole life?

    Now I’m bewildered, no idea what you’re on about.

    Mission accomplished!

    I knew a missionary once.
    He got eaten

  46. Vic, Steve:

    Yes undoubtedly much easier to keep sucking on the public teat as DPM, but even as a backbencher he wouldn’t be hurting financially. Plus none of the hassles or distractions that come with a ministry.

    It says it all that Barnaby wouldn’t put those he supposedly loves and cares for ahead of his self interested media commentary this week when he’s meant to be on leave. Therefore I guess it’s too much to ask that he would put his relationships ahead of his career in resigning the leadership.

  50. Fess

    Whilst Barnaby was deemed an asset, all his shortcomings and dodgy dealings were overlooked. This latest escapade must be the straw that broke the camel’s back.

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