BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor

Following Newspoll, the latest poll aggregate reading washes away the Coalition’s gains from the earlier polling since New Year.

This week’s Newspoll result had added 0.3% to Labor’s two-party reading on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, and added one seat to their national on the seat projection, the gain being in South Australia. The biggest change on the primary vote is an improvement for One Nation, who reversed a weakening trend over the past few months with the latest poll. Newspoll also recorded a weakening in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, but evidently the aggregate had this priced in already, as the trend results show little changed on last week. As always, full results on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,222 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor”

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  1. a r:

    I think it’s more a case of while Turnbull is away the rats will get on with the business of whiteanting and destabilising.

    I love Abbott’s comment that he’s happy being a backbench member of a govt whose policies he disagrees with. What a hypocrite.

  3. Cormann, like Turnbull, is feeling the heat on the government as a whole from the Barnaby affair.

    Joyce sex claim ‘needs probe’
    10:30AMBEN PACKHAM
    Acting PM Mathias Cormann has acknowledged a “very serious” allegation of sexual harassment against Barnaby Joyce.

  4. phoenixRed:

    I was thinking more along the lines of the chance of a pardon from Trump being enough of an incentive not to flip on Russian campaign interference, Putin etc but cop the state charges.

  6. Plea bargaining is a pretty good deal to me.

    take the main case where it is used.

    Drug users and small scale drug dealers (the ones selling individual quantities to users.)

    They’re in a shitty situation, and they likely wouldn’t be there if the government had good mental health services, a strong economic safety net, and treated addiction as a health issue more than a law and order issue.

    These dealers aren’t making millions, they’re just getting by. Arresting them achieves virtually nothing in reducing drug consumption levels.

    So the police let them off if they can dob in the higher ups.

    Surely that is a win, win?

  7. Now money laundering, fraud, tax evasion etc is no big deal. Except for the small matter of them being criminal acts.

    There must be a website somewhere that shows the latest Russian troll bot lines that we could compare and contrast with DTT’s comments. I’m sure there’d be some cut n paste similarities.

  9. Joyce sex claim ‘needs probe’

    In all of this Barnaby affairs and pregnancy scandal I bet they’ve been longing for an opportunity to use that headline.

  10. Even Barnaby the dullard must realise he is finished. The MSM will relentlessly pursue this corrupt hay seed to the end of days. The 1400 presser will be his resignation speech before the shit really hits the fan….

  12. Voice Endeavour @ #156 Friday, February 23rd, 2018 – 10:11 am

    Plea bargaining is a pretty good deal to me.

    take the main case where it is used.

    Drug users and small scale drug dealers (the ones selling individual quantities to users.)

    They’re in a shitty situation, and they likely wouldn’t be there if the government had good mental health services, a strong economic safety net, and treated addiction as a health issue more than a law and order issue.

    These dealers aren’t making millions, they’re just getting by. Arresting them achieves virtually nothing in reducing drug consumption levels.

    So the police let them off if they can dob in the higher ups.

    Surely that is a win, win?

    Voice

    Yes that is the system used here I assume. Not so much let the dealers off but reduce the nature of the charge or maybe put in a good word with the judge/magistrate.

    However in the US it seems to be used much, much more, even in murder cases. It might be just watching too many TV shows but it seems to be used a heck of a lot. There is a great deal of room for corruption when it is so wide spread.

  13. Confessions @ #157 Friday, February 23rd, 2018 – 11:12 am

    Now money laundering, fraud, tax evasion etc is no big deal. Except for the small matter of them being criminal acts.

    There must be a website somewhere that shows the latest Russian troll bot lines that we could compare and contrast with DTT’s comments. I’m sure there’d be some cut n paste similarities.

    poroti is sounding a bit Russian these days as well!

  15. Confessions says: Friday, February 23, 2018 at 11:10 am

    phoenixRed:

    I was thinking more along the lines of the chance of a pardon from Trump being enough of an incentive not to flip on Russian campaign interference, Putin etc but cop the state charges.

    ***************************************************

    Well – it would be out of the frying pan into the fire – from what I understand STATE RICO charges and penalties are as severe as federal ones

    Those found guilty of racketeering can be fined up to $25,000 and sentenced to 20 years in prison per racketeering count. ( these clowns have 32 counts per indictments )

    In addition, the racketeer must forfeit all ill-gotten gains and interest in any business gained through a pattern of “racketeering activity.”

    Either way – if found guilty – they will die penniless in jail

  20. Dan G/Guytaur

    Thanks for posting true crime article.

    Barnaby doing a presser at 2 pm today. Is he finally realising the jig is up and going to resign from parliament?

  21. guytaur @ #127 Friday, February 23rd, 2018 – 10:46 am

    JoshButler: lovely relaxing way to end his week of holiday twitter.com/jamesmassola/s…
    jamesmassola: Barnaby Joyce will hold a press conference at 2pm today in Armidale.

    So, basically, Barnaby Joyce has been in the media every day of this week, his supposed break, reminding everyone why he has been sin-binned?

    His media adviser is giving him some pretty poor advice, I reckon. Maybe it’s the hormones. 😉

  22. Fess

    Here is the post from earlier ………..

    Victoria says:
    Friday, February 23, 2018 at 8:49 am
    PhoenixRed

    Since this latest tragic shooting in Florida and the renewed focus on the NRA, I have been musing about one of the actors in this shit show, Maria Butina, whose name is strangely close to Putin.
    Anyhoo I am thinking she is in Mueller’s sights and very well could be the key between Putin and Trump.
    Interesting times………

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-kremlin-and-gop-have-a-new-friendand-boy-does-she-love-guns?ref=scroll

  24. Confessions says: Friday, February 23, 2018 at 11:23 am

    phoenixRed:

    So breaking it down, basically Manafort and Gates are stuffed.

    ***********************************************

    Well I guess they have to decide – do I go to jail for the rest of my life/lose everything I/family own by saying nothing ???? – or perhaps Robert Mueller will reduce their time in jail for a little bit of canary singing about the Trump organisation/campaign/money manipulations etc etc – I think they are stuffed in some shape or form no matter what they do from here

  27. Vic:

    Thanks for that. Quite a career transformation: Siberian furniture shop owner to DC hard hitter and hang around of Team Trump’s.

    And what a great find of her being a rent-a-questioner at a Trump rally back in 2015! I agree she and her associates will be on Mueller’s radar.

  29. Presumably Barnaby is hitting the phones to try and shore up the numbers prior to the party room meeting on Monday. He really needs a couple of his current staff in Armidale to do mundane things like going shopping and washing the dishes!

  30. Money laundering, fraud, tax evasion …

    I can understand why some people might think this is no big deal.

    Large parts of the Australian economy depend on these things.

  31. That Barnbaby Joyce must be a nice chap. People keep giving him places to stay rent free.

    Deputy PM Barnaby Joyce and former media adviser hug the Queensland coast in 11-day road-trip in government car over Christmas before returning to a rent-free $4000 a week Coffs Harbour beach-house supplied by govt contractor #auspol https://t.co/aTnOzmBqB4 pic.twitter.com/TOWt2DacXm

    — Kimberley Kitching (@kimbakit) February 22, 2018

  33. New Charges Against Manafort And Gates Show Mueller Is Relentlessly Coming After Trump

    Bob Mueller is relentlessly coming after Paul Manafort and Rick Gates to get Manafort to talk about Trump/Russia collusion.

    Most legal experts think that Mueller already has enough to convict Manafort, so why is he adding more charges?

    The answer is pressure. Mueller is putting the heat on Manafort because a Manafort flip would open the door wide to the Trump campaign. The message that Robert Mueller is using Manafort and Gates to send is that he will not stop. He is going to keep coming after the players in the Russia scandal until he gets to the truth. Paul Manafort has to know that he is already going to spend the rest of his life in jail. Even if Trump gets rid of Mueller, Manafort and Gates will face state charges.

    It’s over for Paul Manafort, and Mueller is going to crush him like a grape if that is what it takes to get to the truth about Trump and Russia.

    https://www.politicususa.com/2018/02/22/new-charges-manafort-gates-show-mueller-relentlessly-coming-trump.html

  34. Fess
    Her name has not been mentioned at all by those I follow. Which got me thinking that she has been made to fly under the radar so to speak.
    I could be wrong, but she is key

  39. phoenixRED @ #174 Friday, February 23rd, 2018 – 11:28 am

    Confessions says: Friday, February 23, 2018 at 11:23 am

    phoenixRed:

    So breaking it down, basically Manafort and Gates are stuffed.

    ***********************************************

    Well I guess they have to decide – do I go to jail for the rest of my life by saying nothing ???? – or perhaps Robert Mueller will reduce their time in jail for a little bit of canary singing about the Trump organisation/campaign/money manipulations etc etc – I think they are stuffed in some shape or form no matter what they do from here

    They could ask Bernie Maddoff what it’s like? 🙂

    Or, maybe they’re shit-scared about what the Russian Mafia might do to them if they decide to sing like a canary? They do have plenty of form for silencing those who know too much.

  44. Or, maybe they’re shit-scared about what the Russian Mafia might do to them if they decide to sing like a canary? They do have plenty of form for silencing those who know too much.

    Well so does Hillary, right? So they’re screwed either way.

  45. The Pardon Boomerang: Why Trump Associates May Need to Decline Any Offer of a Pardon

    A president’s pardon power applies only to federal crimes. Anyone pardoned for federal offenses would, accordingly, remain liable for state crimes that cover the same underlying conduct.

    Accept a pardon for money laundering under federal law? Look out for prosecutions under state money laundering statutes.

    Officials like New York’s Schneiderman may feel they have an ace in hand if they can walk into a state courthouse with a defendant’s admission of guilt implied by having accepted a presidential pardon. This get-out-of-federal-jail card comes at a price.

    https://www.justsecurity.org/52775/trump-associates-decline-offer-pardon/

  50. Confessions says: Friday, February 23, 2018 at 11:57 am

    Vic:

    Googling her brings up some interesting hits. Such as this from a year ago:

    http://dakotafreepress.com/2017/03/27/maria-butina-connects-russians-nra-trump-sibby-and-mathew-wollman/

    *************************************************

    Good Find Confessions !!! – well, she sure fits in with the NRA, Republicans and Trump & Co – she probably goes on shooting trips with the Trump brothers – what a network of treachery !!!!!

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