BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor

Following Newspoll, the latest poll aggregate reading washes away the Coalition’s gains from the earlier polling since New Year.

This week’s Newspoll result had added 0.3% to Labor’s two-party reading on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, and added one seat to their national on the seat projection, the gain being in South Australia. The biggest change on the primary vote is an improvement for One Nation, who reversed a weakening trend over the past few months with the latest poll. Newspoll also recorded a weakening in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, but evidently the aggregate had this priced in already, as the trend results show little changed on last week. As always, full results on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,222 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor”

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  1. jackfjack6: #BarnaBaby To all those I advised that a Barnababy story in True Crime News had been pulled under threat of defamation action …….. well It’s Back, minus the name of the high level female Lobbyist. ☆☆☆Stunning reading☆☆☆ Lots you may not know.

    @SerkanTheWriter @davrosz

  2. equal or not? says:
    Friday, February 23, 2018 at 9:43 am
    “Fergus Hunter writes on how senior ministers are lining up to criticise Abbott over his immigration comments.”

    —-

    A sure sign that Abbott must have said something right!

    …actually, a sure sign that Abbott’s hopes for a comeback coup will go nowhere. Abbott is probing, looking for a toehold. But there’s nothing. He is locked out. Great. The worst PM in living memory remains a political exile.

  3. Victoria:

    Interesting thoughts….

    Rick WilsonVerified account@TheRickWilson
    29m29 minutes ago
    1/ Here’s why Paul Manafort doesn’t flip and squeal: there’s a tiny % chance Trump pardons him for the Federal crimes. (Doesn’t fix state charges that can hit in NY, VA, FL)

    Rick WilsonVerified account@TheRickWilson
    32m32 minutes ago
    2/ But if Manafort rolls and starts talking about the Trump campaign, Russia, Russian oligarchs and Vladimir Putin, there’s close to a 100% he dies a painful death by polonium poisoning.

    Rick WilsonVerified account@TheRickWilson
    29m29 minutes ago
    3/ The calculus is pretty stark. The immovable object of Manafort’s fear has met the irresistible force of Mueller’s investigation.

  4. Fess

    As always partisan hacks willing and able to muddy the waters.
    Like most things people have an image of how a stupid fantasy movie is played out. Do any of these people actually understand how things really happen and also how a shooting victim usually looks like. It is not like most movies that show a bleeding person on the ground. Injuries from guns such as those used at the Florida school are absolutely gruesome

  5. Fess

    Thanks. I haven’t had chance to look at Wilson and other tweets as yet

    Manafort is between a rock and a hard place.

    Have you had a look at what I posted earlier re Maria Butina. She is the key in my view. I feel she too is finding herself between a rock and a hard place.

  6. Ladbrokes have adjusted their odds (see sidebar)
    Coalition $2.50
    Labor $1.40

    I’m sure yesterday it was
    Coalition $2.30
    Labor $1.50

  7. Vic:

    No I haven’t seen the Maria Butina thing – can you repost pls?

    Just catching up on the new indictment against GAtes and Manafort.

    The new indictment offers a more detailed portrait of what prosecutors say was a multi-year scheme by Manafort and Gates to use their income from working for a Ukrainian political party to buy properties, evade taxes and support a lavish lifestyle even after their business connections in Kiev evaporated.

    “Manafort and Gates generated tens of millions of dollars in income as a result of their Ukraine work. From approximately 2006 through the present, Manafort and Gates engaged in a scheme to hide income from United States authorities, while enjoying the use of the money,” the indictment charges.

    From 2006 to 2015, Manafort, with help from Gates, allegedly failed to pay taxes on this money by disguising it as loans from offshore corporate entities, and by using foreign bank accounts to make payments to businesses in the United States on Manafort’s behalf.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/special-counsel-mueller-files-new-charges-in-manafort-gates-case/2018/02/22/7db99c9c-1716-11e8-8b08-027a6ccb38eb_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_manafort-440pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.dc64003b2805

  8. Vic :

    It’s the Sheriff who is pissed an armed deputy outside the school never went in upon hearing gun fire.

    The deputy has resigned.

  9. “Sources tell me that in defence of the Tamworth twit, he wasn’t rooting, he was researching. There he was tirelessly putting in the hours for his upcoming… (ooh did you say coming?) publication Bad Boy Barnaby’s Tantric Sex Manual for Flaccid Nationals.

    The party has always been a bit on the limp side, so Barnaby wanted to show his party how to go the distance. How to get close without ever coming. I mean, isn’t that the story of being in the National Party? Always the Bridesmaid, never the Bride.”
    ———-
    https://www.echo.net.au/2018/02/mandy-nolans-soap-box-bad-boy-barnaby/

  10. Tea Pain‏ @TeaPainUSA

    BOOM x 32! 32, count ’em, 32 counts of Tax Evasion, Money Launderin’ and Bank Fraud. Manafort’s gotta flip or die in prison.

    Ale‏ @aliasvaughn

    “Manafort, with the assistance of Gates, laundered more than $30 mln” . They have got them on laundering THIRTY MILLION DOLLARS. Let that sink in.

    BREAKING: A grand jury in Virginia has returned a new indictment against Paul Manafort and Rick Gates, per new filing from the special counsel’s office

    assets.documentcloud.org/documents/4385690/2-22-18-Manafort-Gates-Indictment-EDVA.pdf …

  11. The person named in the TrueCrimesWeekly story has sued for defamation.

    The veracity of the claims are, at the least, open to question.

  12. Confessions @ #99 Friday, February 23rd, 2018 – 8:59 am

    Sheriff Scott Israel said Officer Scott Peterson failed by waiting outside the Marjory Stoneman Douglas HS building for about 4 of 6 minutes while Nikolas Cruz killed 17 people

    What should Peterson have done

    Israel: “Went in. Addressed the killer. Killed the killer”

    Thank you, Captain Israel Hindsight.

    In the real world there’s a thing called situational awareness and it’s neither neither instant nor perfect. And in the real world if you try to confront an active shooter armed with a rifle using only a handgun, no backup, and no plan you’re probably gonna die.

    Also, good evidence that having more guns around won’t change anything.

  13. What to do when you find a snake in your home.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-23/what-not-to-do-if-you-find-a-snake-in-your-house/9473632

    Ascertain whether the snake is federal or state liberal/national party, although treatment remains the same.

    First gently reproach yourself for letting the @#$#@ into your home, all the while gently (more or less) removing the thing from the property.

    Warn the neighbours.

    Fumigat the house.

    Wipe anything the said snake may have touched.

    Put head in hands and sob, wail or scream as is your wont.

    In my case, take a heady draught of quality creaming soda. Others may take a single malt, beaucoup plonk or whatever cures sudden onset depression.

    Does anybody remember plonk being referred to as “bombo” ?

    Back to the mowing.

    No, not those one Muriel 🥀🥀🥀

  14. booleanbach says:
    Friday, February 23, 2018 at 10:28 am
    This is how the oceans die

    Climate change is already causing very rapid destruction of marine habitats and populations, which are losing their ability to reproduce themselves even without the pressures of fishing.

  15. Off topic. This is an excellent article.

    He laughs a small, sad laugh. “This is gonna really probably be a little saccharine for you,” Fraser warns. “But I felt like the horse from Animal Farm, whose job it was to work and work and work. Orwell wrote a character who was, I think, the proletariat. He worked for the good of the whole, he didn’t ask questions, he didn’t make trouble until it killed him.… I don’t know if I’ve been sent to the glue factory, but I’ve felt like I’ve had to rebuild shit that I’ve built that got knocked down and do it again for the good of everyone. Whether it hurts you or not.”

    https://www.gq.com/story/what-ever-happened-to-brendan-fraser

  16. booleanbach @ #117 Friday, February 23rd, 2018 – 10:28 am

    This is how the oceans die – and why we need strong regulation of fishing in our national waters.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/feb/22/half-of-worlds-oceans-now-fished-industrially-maps-reveal

    Some people would read that article and say to themselves “Wow! Half the world’s oceans are being overfished. Unsustainable!”.

    Others would read it and say to themselves “Wow! Half of the world’s oceans are yet to be fully exploited! Bonanza!”

    🙁

  17. P1 – the problem with that view is that the ‘low hanging fruit’ ocean cropping has all been done; from now on it will be much harder and more expensive and far more cut-throat competitive to get a full haul on each voyage.

    Expect even higher prices and more pirates.

  18. JoshButler: lovely relaxing way to end his week of holiday twitter.com/jamesmassola/s…
    jamesmassola: Barnaby Joyce will hold a press conference at 2pm today in Armidale.

  19. Peter van OnselenVerified account@vanOnselenP
    2h2 hours ago
    How bitter and twisted has he become! So much for no sniping. It’s this attitude which got him dumped as PM…
    :large

  20. booleanbach says:
    Friday, February 23, 2018 at 10:39 am
    P1 – the problem with that view is that the ‘low hanging fruit’ ocean cropping has all been done

    This is only a part of the problem. The greater issue will be widespread, permanent failure of the environment to produce “crops” at all. This is already evident in Western Australia and parts of the Australian south coast. We have set off a process that is profoundly destructive and which is only just beginning.

  21. TrueCrimesWeekly makes me think of Kangaroo Court and its author, Shane Dowling.

    Dowling got himself a criminal conviction for revealing names on his blog (when told not to by a court) and a gaol sentence which he is presently appealing. Ingeniously (so he thought), and prior to his conviction, Dowling had accused all the judges of the Supreme Court of being paedophiles or their protectors so he can now argue they are biased against him on the appeal and should not hear it.

  22. Kaz Cooke@reallykazcooke
    18h18 hours ago

    Julia Gillard was pilloried for having an empty fruit bowl. This guy thinks a tea towel is a bolero jacket.

    :large

  23. New Manafort indictments show ex-Trump chairman ‘is going to die in federal prison : Legal analysts

    “With regard to Manafort, look, this is all about having Manafort flip on Trump,” Figliuzzi continued. “It’s all about showing the Russia connection. Manafort has that kind of information available. He’s not flipped yet. He’s not cooperating. And I’ll tell you what, if he doesn’t do it with these new tax charges, you’re looking at Manafort literally dying in federal prison based on the tax charges are horrific in terms of the gravity of it, the time you’ll spend in prison.”

    And this takes awhile—to get the IRS to sign off on federal tax charges, you’ve got to really make your case and mueller has clearly made it here,” he added.

    Figliuzzi went on to describe Mueller’s team as a “dream team,” repeating “Manafort is about getting to the Russian collusion with Trump.”

    “And until Manafort gives it up, this case is not going to be over yet, and it’s a domino effect, right?” Figliuzzi said. “You get Gates, Gates flips on Manafort, you get Manafort, Manafort flips on Trump. And you’ll understand the inner workings of how the Russians were working the campaign. That’s what this is about. You’ll continue to see charges until there aren’t any left to charge on Manafort and Gates, and eventually one of them or both of them is going to break and cooperate or, as I’ve said, die in federal prison.”

    Over on CNN, Toobin echoed a similar statement.

    “If he’s convicted after trial … he is going to die in prison,” Toobin said later adding “the stakes couldn’t be any higher.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/02/new-manafort-indictments-show-ex-trump-chairman-going-die-federal-prison-legal-analysts/

  24. Boerwar says:
    Friday, February 23, 2018 at 10:49 am
    What that map shows is how unproductive Australia’s commercial fisheries are, compared with other marine areas.

    Yes, Australian waters tend to be relatively warm and oxygen-poor, and unable to sustain large biomass.

  25. I hate to say this about US gun violence, but what one brave parent has to do after a massacre is release a set of photos of their child’s headless, exploded, limbless body to the press…and for it to be front page across the world. We need to graphically see what a machine gun does to a little body.
    Like Vietnam, only when the graphic images hit us in our living rooms did the zeitgeist change….the sanitised discussion, even little coffins is not changing the narrative. 🙁

  26. I wonder if Hadley still has Abbott on his show. Hadley’s listeners virtually worshipped Abbott as the messiah who would stage a comeback against the evil Turnbull.

  27. Shellbell

    There is a difference. True crimes pulled the article. They have reposted it after the Daily Telegraph printed basically the same story. When they put the article up they removed the name of the person including in the apology they printed as demanded.

    So I think that is a little different than the other publication you mention. Note I am making no defence just pointing out a difference as the article is very aggressive.

  28. Tones, Tones, Tones.What you are going to ‘cop’ is of no concern to any of us, including your colleagues.

    We had to cop years of your lies, deceit, crap and inept policies, attack dog demeanour, and did I mention lies.
    Now when you are finally removed as PM, we still have to cop your pathetic sniping from the sidelines, and further lowering of the level of political discourse.

    You are, in summary, a scab on the body politic, so why don’t you and your 3 supporters just fark right off.

  29. guytaur @ #56 Friday, February 23rd, 2018 – 7:55 am

    Newsweek: BREAKING: Read the full text of Mueller’s new indictment against Paul Manafort and Rick Gates bit.ly/2HFHsjt pic.twitter.com/1KgFkUPdUj

    http://www.newsweek.com/paul-manafort-rick-gates-mueller-new-indictment-816955?utm_campaign=NewsweekTwitter&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social

    Guytaur

    So some of Trump’s advisors were crooks. Hardly a big deal in the US context. What have these indictments got to do with the election campaign?

    OK there is presumably some sort of hope that by indictingthese advisors they will “spill the beans”

    Thing is I thought that it was simply the threat of indictment that caused people to squeal like stuck pigs. – that and plea bargaining. Presumably if they are now indicted they did NOT squeal andare being punished.

    Trying to move quite away from Trump etc to a more general issue – Does any one else find the US practice of plea bargaining obnoxious. I know we do it a bit, but it is not as blatant.

  30. briefly @ #137 Friday, February 23rd, 2018 – 10:52 am

    Boerwar says:
    Friday, February 23, 2018 at 10:49 am
    What that map shows is how unproductive Australia’s commercial fisheries are, compared with other marine areas.

    Yes, Australian waters tend to be relatively warm and oxygen-poor, and unable to sustain large biomass.

    There’s always the Antarctic … 🙁

  31. Confessions says: Friday, February 23, 2018 at 10:53 am

    phoenixRed:

    What do you think of the suggestion there’s a chance Trump will pardon Manafort of any federal convictions?

    *************************************************************

    Trump may well pardon anyone – BUT the NYAG Eric Schneiderman will be waiting to charge them under STATE Laws – where Trump cannot issue a pardon. Under RICO ( Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act ) they will get done for the crimes Mueller has just had them indicted for – money laundering, tax evasion, fraud – and from what I read Schneiderman is loaded for bear as he hates the Trump Crime Family with a deep passion for the disgrace they reflect on New York.

  32. So some of Trump’s advisors were crooks. Hardly a big deal in the US context. What have these indictments got to do with the election campaign?

    I can only presume that you are joking.

    We are talking money laundering and fraud here. No big deal? WTF?

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