Essential Research and Resolve Strategic offer further numbers on budget polling, both tending to support Newspoll’s impression of a lukewarm response to the budget, and one — or possibly two, with Resolve Strategic to be confirmed — also supporting its finding of no discernible impact on voting intention.
What we have so far from Essential Research is a report in The Guardian relating that its 2PP+ measure of voting intention has Labor steady on 53% and the Coalition up one to 42%, with the remainder undecided; Anthony Albanese up three on approval to 54% and down two on disapproval to 35%; and Peter Dutton steady on approval at 36% and up one on disapproval to 45%. For primary votes will have to wait for the pollster’s publication of its full results later today.
The poll found 24% expecting the government would be good for them personally, which presumably had a corresponding result for bad that will also have to wait for the full report. Only limited numbers felt it would create jobs (33%), reduce debt (29%), reduce cost-of-living pressures (26%), whereas 46% felt it would “create long-term problems that will need to be fixed in the future”. Respondents were most likely to rate that the budget would be good for people receiving government payments and least likely to younger Australians and “average working people”.
There was also a forced response questions on the Indigenous Voice and a republic, the former finding the margin from yes in to 59-41 from 60-40 a month ago, with small state sub-samples finding recording big leads in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia, but an even balance in Queensland and Western Australia. The republic question, which apparently left the devil undetailed, broke 54-46 in favour. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1080.
The Resolve Strategic poll in the Age/Herald, which will presumably follow up with voting intention results fairly short, seemingly produced the most favourable results for the budget, with 31% saying it would be good for them and their household compared with 26% for bad; 44% good for the country with 17% for bad; 36% good for the health of the economy with 15% for bad; and 39% good for “rebuilding a healthy budget” with 17% for bad. Similarly to Essential Research, it found respondents were most likely to see the budget as good for the less fortunate and disadvantaged, with 56% for good and 14% for poor, but it substantially more positive results for both older people (48% good and 17% bad) and younger people (39% and 17%).
Respondents were asked about twelve specific items in the budget, finding majority support for all but two: limiting growth in NDIS spending to 8% a year, which still recorded a net positive result with 37% in favour and 17% opposed, and facilities for the Brisbane Olympics and Tasmanian AFL, which were supported by 27% and opposed by 37%. The most popular measure was the spending on Medicare to encourage bulk billing, at 81% in favour and 5% opposed, with funding for a wage increase for aged care workers, energy bill relief and doubling of medicine prescription periods recording between 73% and 75% support. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1610.
UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research voting intention numbers are here and the full report here. The former’s primary votes are very strong for Labor, suggesting the static 2PP+ numbers relied on a change in respondent-allocated preferences: Labor are up two 35%, the Coalition are down one to 31%, the Greens are steady on 14%, One Nation are steady on 5% and the United Australia Party is down one to 1%. Further, the report allows comparison of the budget response with five budgets going back to 2020, which makes the numbers look better than at first blush. Twenty-four per cent for “good for you personally” is about par for the course; the 41% and 37% for “good for people on lower incomes” and “good for older Australians” are comfortably the strongest results out of five budgets going back to 2020; 46% for “place unnecessary burdens on future generations” is the best result of the five.
What will the QUAD leaders announce or do of substance at their photo opportunity in Japan?
What an odd collection it is.
Anyway, again, Australia is being held the unfortunate victim of US domestic policy. Enough Already I say.
Maybe the legalisation of Cannabis in Thailand has a downside. With thanks to our friends at The Nation.
“ An American tourist was rescued from the sewers beneath Pattaya, eastern Thailand, yesterday after getting trapped in the murky, pungent pipe system for more than four hours.
A security guard was bewildered when he heard a voice coming from beneath a covered drain at the entrance of Soi 8 Thep Prasit, Moo 11, Nong Prue subdistrict, Bang Lamung district. He followed the sound and called for help right away when he saw the foreign man, wearing a single pair of shorts, submerged in Pattaya’s subterranean wastewater.
The trapped tourist attracted a crowd by the time rescue workers from the Sawang Boriboon Foundation were called to the scene at 7.30pm. Rescue workers removed the iron sewer grate and successfully pulled the tourist out of the three-metre-deep hole. The American was clearly exhausted and asked for water from the rescue team.”
Cashed up bogans are the worst. The women invariably have bleached hair and speak with a strong, strine accent.
The men wear nylon footy shorts and offer you a beer at 11 o’clock in the morning.
They live in a Mac mansion and generally have a boat and a couple of negative geared investment properties. Battlers all..
I know too many of them.
Aaron Newton:
What’s wrong with Julian Hill? He strikes me as an excellent performer who seems quite effective at using social media to reach out to younger voters.
Bob Carr is making the extended point that the US should not take it’s partners for granted.
In short, shove your pissant debt ceiling up your arse, and focus on the main game.
Expect some are listening..
Upnorth:
That happened to my Dad in – I think – Bangkok about a decade before I was born. It was possing down with rain and the the footpaths were beginning to flood, completely obscuring the open sewers. My Mum reckons it looked like he just disappeared when he fell in. Thankfully some locals helped rescue him and he miraculously avoided a horrific infection, but it doesn’t rank among his more enjoyable travel experiences.
WeWantPaul @ Wednesday, May 17, 2023 at 5:20 pm:
“While Russia is the massive loser, China is the massive winner of Ukraine war, every day it drags on is a most excellent day for the Chinese National interest. Like for the US the longer the war goes on the better and better for China and building soft power across the globe.”
===================
WWP, let’s not forget what’s really at stake here. If Russia is allowed to keep any of its gains at Ukraine’s expense thanks to flagrantly committing the crime of aggression – severely aggravated by war crimes, crimes against humanity and attempted genocide along the way – two geopolitical impacts will be felt irreversably across the world:
1. Get nukes, and you can expand your territory by attacking a neighbour with armed forces, with nobody prepared to act truly effectively to stop you;
2. Get nukes, and nobody will ever dare to attack you.
If ‘concessions to Russia for peace’ is the outcome of this conflict – Dr Strangelove, come on down, your time has finally arrived!
Henry says:
Wednesday, May 17, 2023 at 5:31 pm
Cashed up bogans are the worst. The women invariably have bleached hair and speak with a strong, strine accent.
The men wear nylon footy shorts and offer you a beer at 11 o’clock in the morning.
They live in a Mac mansion and generally have a boat and a couple of negative geared investment properties. Battlers all..
I know too many of them.
中华人民共和国
What sort of shorts and beer cobber?
That’s the real pointer. All these flash IPAs and lardy dah craft brews plus them paint on AFL shorts are dead give aways for wankers.
Now if they are wearing Rugby League shorts (especially Queensland Maroon) and offer a XXXX they are probably bogans but of the decent variety.
Something like 78% of Americans don’t want Biden to run again. The dems are not very good at politics.
And then the Feinstein fiasco.
These people should be at home telling their grandkids the same story they told them yesterday, not having their staff try and run the room for them.
The suggestion that the US debt ceiling is a domestic problem is just plain wrong. It will be a world problem if they default or it goes kaput. It is why there is an urgent need to remove the world from being held hostage to the stupid games played by some of the loonies in the US congress and end this facade where the world waits with baited breath for the US to sort its garbage out.
Or maybe still it would be best if the whole charade of Govt debt and deficit comes falling down so we can get on with the job of doing something different. But I would prefer a more measured and contained transition and hope they just keep sorting this mess out til we can get away.
Asha says:
Wednesday, May 17, 2023 at 5:35 pm
Upnorth:
That happened to my Dad in – I think – Bangkok about a decade before I was born. It was possing down with rain and the the footpaths were beginning to flood, completely obscuring the open sewers. My Mum reckons it looked like he just disappeared when he fell in. Thankfully some locals helped rescue him and he miraculously avoided a horrific infection, but it doesn’t rank among his more enjoyable travel experiences.
中华人民共和国
Oh yes. Bangkok is a veritable minefield for the uninitiated or drunk.
Sewers have cement tops here on the footpath that are often cracked and broken. Never walk on them – they will and as Asha points out do give way.
Then there are the footpaths littered with holes nooks and crannies and loose pavers. In rain your thongs make the, let’s say scented, water splash up your shorts (now commando style makes sense).
But you are damned if you look down to stay safe as at head height copious electric cables hang ready to zap the unaware (Thais generally don’t notice as they are a good foot lower than me).
Pedestrian Crossings are cunningly placed to lure foreigners into crossing and increase Thailands GDP through hospital admissions. DONT ever use a pedestrian crossing in Thailand unless you cross with a local or a long termer.
But apart from that and the 38 degree heat it’s always worth a walk in Bangkok. Many things of interest.
Asha
Do we need to have sympathy towards American politicians because of Debt ceiling standoff?
Today’s UK MoD assessment of the Ukraine war focuses on Russian anxiety over its ability to control the airspace of the battlefield:
“Over the last week, the air battle over the Russia-Ukraine border has intensified. On 13 May 2023 alone, four Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) aircraft (two advanced combat jets and two helicopters) crashed, apparently shot down over Russia’s Bryansk region. On 03 May 2023, Ukraine achieved the first ever shoot-down of a KILLJOY [UK MoD-speak for the Kinzhal hypersonic missile] air-launched ballistic missile. Subsequently, Russia has prioritised attempting to neutralise Ukraine’s improved air defence capabilities, but in the process has likely lost several more KILLJOY. The increased air threat over Russia’s border region will be of exceptional concern for the VKS because it uses the area to launch air power in support of the war. The apparent vulnerability of KILLJOY is likely a surprise and an embarrassment for Russia: Russian President Vladimir Putin has touted the system as undefeatable.”
https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1658715522823749632
Deflation?
Not on your Nellie, apparently.
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202305/1290791.shtml
In today’s ISW assessment of the Ukraine war, they report on panic besetting Russian forces in occupied Kherson, on the left side of the Dnipro River – right on the direct route from Ukrainian held territory to Crimea:
“Russian forces are continuing to panic about maintaining their positions in the east (left) bank Kherson Oblast ahead of anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensives. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) published a video on May 15 claiming that Russian airborne (VDV) artillery units are shelling Ukrainian infantry units in forested areas on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast. A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that there are “witch hunts” among Russian troops operating in Kherson Oblast because many accuse each other of exposing Russian positions to Ukrainian forces by cooperating with Russian volunteers or reporting about the situation on the ground. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces launched four KAB-500 bombs from four Su-35 fighter aircraft at Beryslav and Kizomys on the west (right) bank of the Dnipro River. Russian forces also shelled the west bank Kherson Oblast 86 times, and reportedly used incendiary munition to target Kherson City.”
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-16-2023
These Russian units should run while the running’s still good – that is, before the road and rail leading back to Russia through Melitopol between the Dnipro and the Sea of Azov are cut off.
High-profile Queensland rape accused seeks information from alleged victim’s phone
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/may/17/queensland-man-high-profile-rape-accused-seeks-information-from-alleged-victims-phone-qld-toowoomba-magistrates-court
“Stuff your nation’s impending economic catastrophe, we need you at our meeting!”
In urology manhole covers present specific dangers. In days gone by they were almost as dangerous as shooting sticks (don’t ask)
Oakeshott Country says:
Wednesday, May 17, 2023 at 6:01 pm
In urology manhole covers present specific dangers. In days gone by they were almost as dangerous as shooting sticks (don’t ask)
中华人民共和国
Is it true OC that treatment of “The Clap” in the old days involved the insertion of a tube into the infected organ and the release of prongs which were pulled through the said infected organ to “scrape away” The Clap? Surely this wouldn’t have killed the virus???
Ven:
Sympathy? Sympathy has nothing to do with any of this.
It’s just the simple fact that world leaders need to prioritise their time and attention, and Biden has – rightly, IMO – prioritised ensuring the US doesn’t default over attending the Quad meeting. The Quad can be rescheduled. The US defaulting on their debt cannot be.
Upnorth:
It certainly killed my ability to get a nightmare-free sleep tonight.
Upnorth:
Ha, I have come within a hair’s width of being electrocuted by those damn things on something like six different occasions. These places are not designed for tall people.
The trick with pedestrian crossings in countries like Thailand is to just treat it as any other stretch of road, just like the people driving through them do. On busy roads, I also try to make sure at least a few other people are crossing with me – I figure most drivers would be more reluctant to mow down a whole crowd rather than one stupid falang.
Well since that many didn’t learn the right lessons from the covid stimulus, because of the lack of understanding of what the inflation was that we were seeing, perhaps if the US government did default, which would crash the economy, maybe they will learn how idiotic it is for government to cut its spending over the fear of debt and deficit.
Saw a dickhead wearing a Red Hot Chilli Peppers T-Shirt in Eltham protesting a Drag Queen reading to children. 🙂
Then there is 3D street art – see who walks around the “hole” in the road.
Asha @ #721 Wednesday, May 17th, 2023 – 6:11 pm
Yes, sort of. Untreated gonorrhea and some of the other STDs used to cause strictures of the urethra. In the absence of effective surgery the treatment was to pass “sounds” – firstly wooden but then metal tubes of gradually increasing diameter to break down the stricture. This was only a temporary measure and was often traumatic making the situation worse. A urethrotome was a sound with a hidden razor blade which was drawn along the length of the stricture and by making a fresh cut might provide longer relief. These treatments are still used but are now under anaesthetic and very few strictures are due to STDs
Until the advent of antibiotics this made urologists very rich men. My aged mentor used to say “you can always pass a sound or two for a pound or two”. Pox doctors were so rich that they employed clerks as assistants and the clerk wore a top hat under which he kept his master’s sounds. Hence the expression “dressed up like a pox doctor’s clerk”
India beats expectations and US in debt ceiling crisis
https://youtu.be/FHZ4awc6yPs
China holds the cards as world faces dark economic future.
https://amp-smh-com-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/china-holds-the-cards-as-the-world-faces-a-dark-economic-future-20230517-p5d8y1.html?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQGsAEggAID#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16843101199356&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.smh.com.au%2Fbusiness%2Fthe-economy%2Fchina-holds-the-cards-as-the-world-faces-a-dark-economic-future-20230517-p5d8y1.html
Article on Voice polling:
https://citynews.com.au/2023/canberra-bubble-debate-dampens-voice-support/?utm_source=mailpoet&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=canberra-daily-today-s-news-today_7801
@WWP:
“Something like 78% of Americans don’t want Biden to run again.”
Yes but a lot of those are the Republicans.
I would have preferred he find a successor to pass the baton to but he hasn’t, and Kamala hasn’t built that groundswell of support needed (the left wing Democrats probably dislike her more than Biden) so there we go.
I am sure you could get higher numbers than that for Americans not wanting Trump running again.
It’s not a meaningless number but it’s a meaningless number to extrapolate about whether the Dems or Republicans are good at politics. They both have reasons to run back the two old guys again in spite of the fact that both the other side (inevitably) AND many of their own would prefer someone different.
Dr John
No I’m not Richard Porter, I am a first generation snowboarding bum, hence many of my friends are Trust Fund boys and Hoochie Gucci Fiorucci Mamas.
”
Nickosays:
Wednesday, May 17, 2023 at 6:22 pm
Well since that many didn’t learn the right lessons from the covid stimulus, because of the lack of understanding of what the inflation was that we were seeing, perhaps if the US government did default, which would crash the economy, maybe they will learn how idiotic it is for government to cut its spending over the fear of debt and deficit
”
Nicko
Debt ceiling limit is the silliest thing US politicians have done.
Why?
1. US dollar is reserve currency
2. They spend hundreds of billions of dollars on defence, mostly unaccounted.
3. They are living way beyond their means. That is the Debt and Deficit increases every year even after swinging cuts on social security which makes the most vulnerable people in the richest nation suffer.
Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham
Morgan federal primaries are up: ALP 36.5 L-NP 33.5 Green 13 others 17.
Their 2PP 57 to ALP (+2.5) but my estimate off their primaries 55.5 to ALP (+1.6)
Cross-poll average by last-election preferences (most recent poll only, four regular pollsters) is …
57.1 to ALP (+0.4 cf pre-budget)
The debt ceiling is appallingly fucking stupid and should have been abolished decades ago. But for the time being its still a very real thing that must be dealt with whenever its about to be hit.
Ven: “China holds the cards ”
Yeah nah. China has its own really big problems.
I knew guys with gout.
Man, that’s the worst. Couldn’t even put a tissue on their foot without screaming in agony.
Gout is caused by too much meat and seafood.
Easy cure is to become Vegan/vegetarian.
9. questions you may have about Debt ceiling?
https://www.npr.org/2023/05/15/1175733139/debt-ceiling
RP says:
Wednesday, May 17, 2023 at 6:46 pm
Dr John
No I’m not Richard Porter, I am a first generation snowboarding bum, hence many of my friends are Trust Fund boys and Hoochie Gucci Fiorucci Mamas.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
I’m showing my age as I had to google your post.
I did provide necessary accommodation for an ex female friend of James Reyne many many years ago.
Asha says:
Wednesday, May 17, 2023 at 6:18 pm
Upnorth:
But you are damned if you look down to stay safe as at head height copious electric cables hang ready to zap the unaware (Thais generally don’t notice as they are a good foot lower than me).
Ha, I have come within a hair’s width of being electrocuted by those damn things on something like six different occasions. These places are not designed for tall people.
Pedestrian Crossings are cunningly placed to lure foreigners into crossing and increase Thailands GDP through hospital admissions. DONT ever use a pedestrian crossing in Thailand unless you cross with a local or a long termer.
The trick with pedestrian crossings in countries like Thailand is to just treat it as any other stretch of road, just like the people driving through them do. On busy roads, I also try to make sure at least a few other people are crossing with me – I figure most drivers would be more reluctant to mow down a whole crowd rather than one stupid falang.
中华人民共和国
You have passed the first test Asha. There are many more to traverse. Once you go to Bangkok you don’t come back.
“ The Victorian government’s expert panel on emission reductions has recommended natural gas “be largely phased out” and the sale of “emitting road vehicles” also end by 2035.”
https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/ban-petrol-car-sales-phase-out-gas-by-2035-andrews-expert-panel-20230517-p5d93t
Dr Bonham sums up the post election polls, in the context of Morgan 55/45..
I don’t think Labor would get quite that much in an election “held now” but that’s not the point, point is considered across multiple polls the Budget has thus far not harmed Labor’s polling honeymoon.
Too much grog in these guys cases I suspect sprocket.
”
Pisays:
Wednesday, May 17, 2023 at 6:55 pm
Ven: “China holds the cards ”
Yeah nah. China has its own really big problems.
”
It is not me who is saying that. They are comments of SMH
Henry, if you cut out the meat, you can still enjoy the booze
Oakeshott country says:
Wednesday, May 17, 2023 at 6:31 pm
Asha @ #721 Wednesday, May 17th, 2023 – 6:11 pm
Upnorth:
Is it true OC that treatment of “The Clap” in the old days involved the insertion of a tube into the infected organ and the release of prongs which were pulled through the said infected organ to “scrape away” The Clap? Surely this wouldn’t have killed the virus???
It killed my ability to get a nightmare-free sleep tonight.
Yes, sort of. Untreated gonorrhea and some of the other STDs used to cause strictures of the urethra. In the absence of effective surgery the treatment was to pass “sounds” – firstly wooden but then metal tubes of gradually increasing diameter to break down the stricture. This was only a temporary measure and was often traumatic making the situation worse. A urethrotome was a sound with a hidden razor blade which was drawn along the length of the stricture and by making a fresh cut might provide longer relief. These treatments are still used but are now under anaesthetic and very few strictures are due to STDs
Until the advent of antibiotics this made urologists very rich men. My aged mentor used to say “you can always pass a sound or two for a pound or two”. Pox doctors were so rich that they employed clerks as assistants and the clerk wore a top hat under which he kept his master’s sounds. Hence the expression “dressed up like a pox doctor’s clerk”
中华人民共和国
Maybe also the term “VD with Scar”
OC I am indebted to you. If ok I shall use your wisdom when drinking with mates.
Gee Borewar is full of it. So British doctors had no knowledge of tropical medicine? Seriously?
Good luck giving that advice to a meat and potato bloke sprocket.
The US so-called debt ceiling crisis has a history of resolving itself.
I doubt that the GOP would risk the consequences thereof, noting that even Florida is starting to wake up to itself, evidenced by the election of a Democratic mayor in Jacksonville, the largest Floridian population, nearly one million; Miami – half of that.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/democrat-donna-deegan-flips-jacksonville-mayors-office-major-upset-rcna84791
Bearing in mind the results in Jacksonville, DeSantis may reconsider his book-burning. He’s as slick as Trump but lacks panache.
Henry says:
Wednesday, May 17, 2023 at 6:55 pm
I knew guys with gout.
Man, that’s the worst. Couldn’t even put a tissue on their foot without screaming in agony.
中华人民共和国
My old man, who gave up the grog many years ago, was getting gout. He did the less meat thing, drink water try Cider Vinegar etc but still suffered.
Went to a quack in Townsville who told him to stop eating Mud Crabs and Prawns. To his delight his gout went away so he is wary of overindulging in crustaceans.
Fortunately I haven’t had it yet despite my liking of Red Wine. Maybe grilled Field Rat is the key?
”
wranslidesays:
Wednesday, May 17, 2023 at 5:37 pm
The suggestion that the US debt ceiling is a domestic problem is just plain wrong. It will be a world problem if they default or it goes kaput. It is why there is an urgent need to remove the world from being held hostage to the stupid games played by some of the loonies in the US congress and end this facade where the world waits with baited breath for the US to sort its garbage out.
……..
….
”
I totally agree with your assessment.