Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor (open thread)

A middling reaction to the budget from the latest Newspoll, although Labor maintains its dominance on voting intention.

The Australian reports the post-budget Newspoll finds Labor retaining its strong two-party preferred lead of 55-45, in from 56-44 three weeks ago, from primary votes of Labor 38% (steady), Coalition 34% (up one), Greens 11% (steady) and One Nation 7% (steady). Both leaders are up on personal approval, Anthony Albanese by four to 57% and Peter Dutton by three to 36% – no word yet on disapproval ratings (UPDATE: Albanese’s disapproval is up one to 38% and Dutton’s is down one to 51%). Albanese’s lead on preferred prime minister shifts from 54-28 to 56-29.

Respondents were asked the same set of questions on the budget that Newspoll has been posing since 1988, producing results exactly in line with the long term average on personal impact, with 20% expecting they will be better off and 36% worse off. The results on overall economic impact are net positive, with 33% saying it would be good and 28% bad, although the former is about eight points below the historic average while the latter is par for the course, reflecting a higher than usual result for neither good nor bad. Perhaps relatedly, only 13% expected the budget would have a positive impact on inflation compared with 39% for negative and 33% for no difference. Thirty-five per cent felt the opposition would have done a better job compared with 49% who did not, a difference in line with the long term average, although with a slightly lower undecided rate.

The poll was presumably conducted from Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of around 1600, though there’s no precise indication of the latter yet that I can see. More to follow.

UPDATE: The poll was in fact conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1516. Note that two fresh posts have been pushed down the batting order by this one: a guest post by Adrian Beaumont on today’s Turkish elections, and the latest in the Call of the Board series looking in detail at seat results at last year’s federal election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

433 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. yabbasays:
    Monday, May 15, 2023 at 9:28 pm
    Mavis, I didn’t post anything at all yesterday, apart from a brief query as to how upnorth got his ‘no-holes’ grundies on.
    I saw that one. Your attempt at humour went down like a lead balloon.
    I would be leave the comedy to the experts if i was you.
    You are just not funny.

  2. Chalmers should be honest on Q&A.

    We lost and election over negative gearing. You fucked up by voting for scomo, own your decision ya poors. Oh and here’s a stadium you don’t want.

  3. TailoredMerde, You wouldn’t recognise a joke if it bit you on the L’Arse.

    Sukkar is a joke. Do you get that?

    Deeming is a joke. Do you get that?

    Pesutto is a joke. Do you get that?

    You are the standing joke around here.

    ROFL. LOL LOL. Sukkar!

  4. Oh man,
    Qanda at 10:11 is a riot. Unironically a woman asks about how welfare is demotivating for those who have corporate jobs. WILD.

  5. Well, D B Cooper, if you have that name – is it any wonder the bank keeps an eye on you and checks the serial numbers pf any cash deposits.

  6. “Sensible rates? Here?”

    *Darth Vader voice*

    I suggest we remove the market cap. It seems $15k/MWh is not enough risk to motivate the required change in behaviour…

  7. What a dope this guy on QandQ. Voluntary work. Yeah, get the unemployed working for free, cause they should be grateful. Genuinely how anyone survives on the dole puzzles me. Old mate corporate or ABN deducts the job seeking payment in an hour or so.

  8. Taylormade says:
    Monday, May 15, 2023 at 10:03 pm

    Monday, May 15, 2023 at 9:28 pm
    Mavis, I didn’t post anything at all yesterday, apart from a brief query as to how upnorth got his ‘no-holes’ grundies on.
    I saw that one. Your attempt at humour went down like a lead balloon.
    I would be leave the comedy to the experts if i was you.
    You are just not funny.
    LOL Taylormade – you are funny!

  9. @dandy – they’re staggering in a huge increase to the MPC. Let’s see what that does before taking it out entirely

  10. While Thailand goes forward democratically our neighbour goes back. Thanks again to The Nation.

    “PHNOM PENH: Cambodia’s election commission on Monday disqualified the sole opposition Candlelight Party from contesting elections in July over its failure to submit proper registration documents. The party later said it would appeal in the country’s constitutional body against the decision. Other parties have signed up to contest the general election, but Candlelight’s disqualification means the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) looks set to run virtually unopposed.”

  11. More shit from Benson:

    PM’s honeymoon may be over
    Labor has failed to grasp the depth of the problems people are facing and Peter Dutton may finally have found a chink in its armour.

    And more shit from the Daily Mail:
    Why a minimum wage rise in line with inflation in 2023 could lead to job losses

  12. Socrates @ Monday, May 15, 2023 at 7:51 pm:
    “On Ukraine and NATO, my understanding is that one of the conditions of applying for NATO membership is that you have no current border disputes.”

    Socrates, this is right. It is exactly for this reason Russia has made sure it has lodged its military forces like a virus into regions of Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine which those countries cannot readily relinquish without suffering significant economic, trade and security disadvantages relative to Russia. It has forced those countries into an invidious position: either willingly suffer those disadvantages permanently, or else eschew NATO membership permanently. For as long as Russia is allowed to keep those territories, its strategy is a complete success as far as Moscow is concerned, and hence Moscow is given no reason to desist from pursuing their ambitions through violent military aggression in the future.

    For this reason, I think it is imperative that NATO demonstrate to Moscow now, once and for all, that pursuing this sort of territorial acquisition through violent military force will only leave Russia significantly worse off than if they desisted. I repeat: NATO must demonstrate this TO MOSCOW. I see no evidence at all that the Kremlin thinks it has less terrestrial power now than it had before it seized Abkhazia and South Ossetia from Georgia in 2008, or before it seized Crimea and parts of the Donbas in 2014, or before it seized parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in 2022.

    I think this demonstrates that NATO policy towards Russia in this space has, so far, been unsuccessful. Indeed, were it not for a level of bravery, determination, resourcefulness and adaptability in war from the Ukrainians which was completely unexpected by NATO, NATO’s Russia policy right now would be in tatters.

  13. wranslide @ Monday, May 15, 2023 at 10:30 pm:
    “Has Enough Already had enough? Is that the message to take from the posts today?”

    Wranslide, tune in tomorrow to find out!

    PS: my manager will handle your payment. 😉

  14. Oakeshott Country says:
    “Well, D B Cooper, if you have that name – is it any wonder the bank keeps an eye on you and checks the serial numbers pf any cash deposits.”

    Ironically, the parachuting hijacker bought his ticket in the name of ‘Dan Cooper’.

    Early media reports misreported that as ‘DB Cooper’ … and the misnomer somehow stuck.

  15. “The Albanese government has a commanding lead over the Coalition, 53% to 42% in two-party preferred terms, according to the latest Guardian Essential poll.”

    Divvying up the 5% undecided in Essential’s ‘2PP-plus’ methodology delivers a 2PP of 55-point-something to 44-point-something.

    So, within a fraction of a point of Newspoll.

  16. “The [Essential] poll found Labor leading the Coalition 60% to 38% among those aged 18 to 34, 56% to 39% among those 35 to 54 and trailing 45% to 48% among the over 55s.”

  17. “The Essential poll found support for the Indigenous voice in the constitution was steady, easing back one point to 59% and those opposed rising one point to 41%.

    “Support is stronger among women, who back the voice 62% to 38%, than men who back it 56% to 44%. Support is weakest among the over 55s who oppose the voice 60% to 40% and Coalition voters who oppose it 55% to 45%.

    “The voice has majority support in most states, with more than 60% backing it in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia; although support is slimmer in Western Australia, where the yes side leads 52% to 48%. The only state opposed is Queensland, with 51% against the voice and 49% in favour.”

    Or, framing it another way:

    • support > 60% in NSW, VIC, SA;

    • support around 50:50 in WA and QLD.

    That’s quite striking polarisation.

  18. “… the [Essential] poll also found majority support for Australia to become a republic, with 54% saying if there were a referendum on becoming a republic they would vote yes, against 46% who said they would vote no.”

  19. Last time I applied for Centrelink benefits (not that long ago) I was asked to provide separation certificates from work places I’d left over a decade ago (among other impossible asks).

    One of the schools they wanted me to get details from didn’t exist any more.

    I set up a document which said wtte of “I can’t get this information and you really don’t need it” which satisfied the requirements of the on line system. I think I used it about six times.

    They did get back to me on a couple of the more reasonable ones, explained why they were needed and we were apples.

    There was a bit of over excitement when they saw someone had made a payment to me labelled ‘airbnb’ which was apparently proof that I owned a second property. I explained that sometimes people shared airbnbs…..

    — as for the birth certificate thing, as an electorate officer I once had to solve the problem for someone who didn’t know what their birth name was!

  20. Beware the socialist left within the Labor party: always a hair-trigger off hitting the self destruct button.

    This ‘housing policy overhaul’ push needs to be banged on the head – at least in its present guise.

    Limiting negative gearing to one property per investor is just ‘politics of envy’. Declaring ghosting to be a human right is pure motherhood ‘jazz fingers’.

    The ‘evils’ of negative gearing are only apparent when considered in light with how it interests with other policy settings. Most notably Howard’s capital gains tax deduction. THAT is the ‘evil’ – for two reasons: as a duel tax avoidance mechanism it has pushed up housing prices to astronomical levels; and both apply to all forms of real property.

    Labor basically had the right policy back in 2019: negative glaring and the capital gains deduction should only be available for new builds. In fact it could be enhanced, and could take elements from the socialist left’s ‘housing push’ without engaging the political auto destruct button: limit negative gearing and the capital gains deduction for second and subsequent properties to ‘build to rent’ social and affordable housing stock.

    Of course, IMO there would still need to be some sort of middle class bribe to get this across the line. The great mistake of 2019 was that Labor’s franking policies and negative gearing/capital gains reforms were not tied to income tax cuts as part of a ‘grand bargain’ alla keating and labor in the 1980s. Perhaps these sort of reforms could still be tied to S3 now to make it ‘affordable’. It would be a tough sell though – because S3 has been enacted into law already ‘for nothing’ in terms of meaningful reform in return.

  21. I’m a former Victorian S-L branch secretary from decades ago, so I know all about right-wing shenanigans from Clyde Holding’s bribery and corruption in the Richmond City Council to the antics of fuckwits like Andy Landy in the Israeli Republic of Melbourne Ports.

    I also passionately believe in many of the policies of the SL in the ALP as well as the Greens on housing, tax, negative gearing, environment etc. But why is it that I distrust and revile the actual spokespeople of the Greens party with equal passion? Is it them or is it me?

    Why do ‘The Greens’ have such a preponderance of hyphenated surnames? That housing spokesman Chandler-Mather is the perfect example of their entitled ‘two-dads’ dominance. What an arsehole he is! Such privilege on a salary package well in excess of 200k must be hard to explain to his student/youthful supporters.

  22. A_E, you make some interesting points regarding the 2019 failing, but the more basic answer to your query regarding ‘The great mistake of 2019’ was not so much the fine-tuning of policies, but the leader. Shorten was, and always will be, a right-wing faction player with limited intellect and capability. The inescapable fact is that he presented to the public as a ‘leader’ with limited intellect and capability. Where did I hear that before? In short, he had a charisma by-pass at birth. His look-at-me antics at the Beaconsfield mine disaster put me off him from the start.

  23. What is a ‘positive impact’ on inflation? Does that mean inflation will rise or fall? Is that actually how the question was asked?

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