The Australian reports the post-budget Newspoll finds Labor retaining its strong two-party preferred lead of 55-45, in from 56-44 three weeks ago, from primary votes of Labor 38% (steady), Coalition 34% (up one), Greens 11% (steady) and One Nation 7% (steady). Both leaders are up on personal approval, Anthony Albanese by four to 57% and Peter Dutton by three to 36% – no word yet on disapproval ratings (UPDATE: Albanese’s disapproval is up one to 38% and Dutton’s is down one to 51%). Albanese’s lead on preferred prime minister shifts from 54-28 to 56-29.
Respondents were asked the same set of questions on the budget that Newspoll has been posing since 1988, producing results exactly in line with the long term average on personal impact, with 20% expecting they will be better off and 36% worse off. The results on overall economic impact are net positive, with 33% saying it would be good and 28% bad, although the former is about eight points below the historic average while the latter is par for the course, reflecting a higher than usual result for neither good nor bad. Perhaps relatedly, only 13% expected the budget would have a positive impact on inflation compared with 39% for negative and 33% for no difference. Thirty-five per cent felt the opposition would have done a better job compared with 49% who did not, a difference in line with the long term average, although with a slightly lower undecided rate.
The poll was presumably conducted from Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of around 1600, though there’s no precise indication of the latter yet that I can see. More to follow.
UPDATE: The poll was in fact conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1516. Note that two fresh posts have been pushed down the batting order by this one: a guest post by Adrian Beaumont on today’s Turkish elections, and the latest in the Call of the Board series looking in detail at seat results at last year’s federal election.
@Granny Anny: I look forward to the next poll containing a data point that leads Simon Benson to trumpet that Dutton is now making inroads on winning over ALP voters.
Cronus @ #317 Monday, May 15th, 2023 – 6:45 pm
Dinesh Palipana has a very interesting back story:
When medical student Dinesh Palipana suffered a severe spinal injury in a car crash, he was told his dream of becoming a doctor was over. Now he’s Queensland’s first quadriplegic doctor, working at one of the state’s busiest hospitals.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-26/queenslands-quadreplegic-doctor-dinesh-palipana-australian-story/9462752
I no longer access this site on a semi regular basis for a raft of reasons – enough being enough as just a start point
But one shot
Stokes’ 7 Network had a typical anti Labor attack on their News service – a woman complaining that she has earned more this year than last so will be paying more tax whilst saving to buy a house
Then
Advice on claiming expenses if you work from home (involving an accountant no less!!)
Not mentioned is that, if you claim courtesy of working from home, upon the sale of the property you are liable for Capital Gains Tax (not otherwise levied if the property is exclusively a place of residence)
Because your residence is also a place of employment – and portion of all expenses from Insurance to Council Rates to utility supply to interest on your home loan are tax deductible expenses
Media
There is a need for a Royal Commission and not only into Murdoch
‘S***show’: Inside the bitter fight to replace Stuart Robert in Fadden
Full text of the Gold Coast Bulletin article in my tweet.
https://twitter.com/Leroy_Lynch/status/1658035207319207936
There is a milder ABC story, but it lacks the inside goss spice.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-15/fadden-byelection-dinesh-palipana-cameron-caldwell-stuart-robert/102332554
I’ve found the solution for the Vic Libs. Here you are TailoredMerde.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fx446n4WF5c
C@tmomma:
Monday, May 15, 2023 at 7:02 pm
sprocket_ @ #322 Monday, May 15th, 2023 – 6:53 pm
[‘Nasty nath, and Loser Lars can only snipe and whinge.
Sad.
Are they still around?
Do they really think that needling you will work on you, sprocket_? Lol.’]
Without their co-called ‘needling’, your raison d’être
would, in my view, negatively suffer. You know you thrive on enemies from the far left; the far right; and, everything in between. And please stop sucking up.
sprocket:
This comment is much nastier than anything Nath has posted today.
Yabba , you posted the same post yesterday? Have you forgotten?
Speaking of upwardly mobile kids in the halls of power, one of them got invited to the Governor General’s celebration of the coronation of King Charlie.
The BBQ and drinks on the lawns of Yarralumla were exquisite (though my kid complained about the lack of vegan options).
And to all those who are wondering, yes it happened.
Linda Hurley got up and sang “You Are My Sunshine”. And not only that, but asked all the attendees to turn to the person next to them, and sing “You Are My Sunshine”.
LOL a true chicken and egg of blame there.
Asha
nath has broad shoulders, and like his posts, know it’s all in jest 🙂
Mavis,
I would never suck up to you. 😐
Sprocket_, on the other hand is a nice person, so no sucking up is required. He has earnt his praise and support.
Now, would you kindly leave me alone? Thank you.
C@t deploys the Richo second pref strategy as insurance in case she commits (highly likely) a future PB atrocity.
the liberals dutton wwill step in and preselect stoker the candadates that have nominated will not get a chance dutton has all ready said he will intervien and install stoker john paaul langbrook will have to settle with being the most junier shadow minister plus the liberals can not replacemolan
Lars Von Trier says:
Monday, May 15, 2023 at 7:02 pm
Apparently ACOSS ceo called for a round of applause today at a budget function for Dr Jim and the 2.85 per day dole boost.
As someone commented it’s probably a good thing the unemployed couldn’t afford to attend to hear this.
———————–
They definitely wouldn’t be able to afford anything under Dutton ,who wants to stop the$2.85 per day boost
along with the liberal party strugiling to fill molans spot months after his death leaving the liberals aone vote short helping labor with out Steve christou being cumberlond mmayor 2gb cant use him to claim labor is some how not interested in ordinary people regularly appears on 2gb and seems based on twitter desperate to fill that vackentsy in the nsw upper house re tweeting hason how ever also going to events for the local mozlim community might be a difficult sell in one nation at least he has a higher profile then the banks town lady tania ma
Mavis @ 7.19
“And please stop sucking up.”
Really!
laz it might be helpful to stop the constant attacks on cat it is not helpful reading abuse on this ashame lefti is no longer with us maybi you could help your party the liberals recover in steadand add constructive coments i respected the fact you regularly appear on hear despite being one of the few liberals
Peter Dutton can probably thank someone called Alexander Downer otherwise Dutton could have been the shortest term Liberal party and opposition leader
Sprocket
“ Linda Hurley got up and sang “You Are My Sunshine”. And not only that, but asked all the attendees to turn to the person next to them, and sing “You Are My Sunshine”.
—————————
😆 Laughed my head off, just hilarious. Cringeworthiness should not be inflicted upon guests.
The Kouk assesses the Budget impact 6 days in..
https://twitter.com/thekouk/status/1657970162845483009?s=61&t=RVN-09kkuVR8UsTJPsu6rQ
In short, the market has priced in no impact on inflation
”Nasty nath, and Loser Lars can only snipe and whinge.”
This comment is much nastier than anything Nath has posted today.
The line when read does have a certain cadence, however, like the opening stanza of a poem or maybe a song…
On Ukraine and NATO, my understanding is that one of the conditions of applying for NATO membership is that you have no current border disputes.
So unless Ukraine had expelled all Russian forces from pre-2014 Ukrainian territory, Ukraine would have to give up claims to any remaining unliberated territory to apply to join NATO.
OTOH, as soon as Ukraine succeeds in getting back the occupied territory it wants, Kyiv should apply for NATO membership the next day.
That is correct Socrates – and avoid a veto from an existing member (given membership is unanimous).
Who wins the peace – will most likely determine if UKR will be able to join NATO.
C@tmomma:
Monday, May 15, 2023 at 7:27 pm
[‘Mavis,
I would never suck up to you.
Sprocket_, on the other hand is a nice person, so no sucking up is required. He has earnt his praise and support.
Now, would you kindly leave me alone? Thank you.’]
You missed my point entirely, which doesn’t surprise me.
If you provocatively post, as so often you do, you deserve to have your posts critically analysed. I’m not sure you get it, and it’s got nothing to do with gender, as you would like to insinuate – your last resort! I’ll get off your back as long as you get off others.
Mavis says:
Monday, May 15, 2023 at 7:04 pm
Great to see that the Cth A-G is acting as the model litigant with regard to the class action over the “killer” foam. I somehow doubt, however, that the former Tory Attorney would’ve.
_______________________________________
Upnorth, thanks for keeping this site up to speed with the Thai election. As an aside, when seeing my GP today, it was revealed – indirectly – that he could be a Tory, evidenced by this:
1. He & his family visit Thailand at least thrice yearly;
2. The patient before me asked the receptionist, his spouse, what she thought of the election result; and
3. She responded (wwtte) that Thailand’s much safer in military hands, unaware of the untoward democratic implications.
Do you think I should seek a second opinion?
中华人民共和国
Agree on the PFAS model litigant stance Mavis. I worked with many former RAAF Garbutt firefighters whose health was not the best because of this chemical. A modern day asbestos!
On your good Doctor, second advice is always an option. Whilst I do multiple trips into Thailand each year (notwithstanding COVID), it’s to care for Mrs Upnorth and my nipper and then out again to put “rice” on the table.
As for Military rule, you may want to ask your medical professional if he agrees in the “dumbing down” of Thailand that, continued Military rule, has inflicted on the Kingdom.
English proficiency for instance – Thailand is ranked 97th overall and second to last among its ASEAN neighbors in an assessment that looks at the average English proficiency in 111 different countries and regions.
Proficiency of this most important “lingua franca” and indeed general learning has been falling over the last decade under Military rule. It’s easy to keep the peasants in line if they don’t realise what’s happening.
Thais, as a percentage of population, were actually more proficient in English in the 1930s than today (Thailands first election was in 1932)!
Of course during the Vietnam War with Pattaya and Bangkok being major areas for R&R, English reached its zenith but has gradually slipped.
Given that there over 1400 Generals (yes 1400) in the Thai Military and a copious amount of the Thai GDP is siphoned to the Military your Quack may be just that!
Thank you Mavis for the pat on the back. I enjoyed last night immensely and my source at The Nation still hasn’t made it home (coffee and Thai Whiskey to blame).
Maybe it was me but when I went out this morning the Thais were even more happier and friendlier than usual. Sabai Sabai.
I also saw people talking about electrification earlier.
Further to some work I mentioned recently, I have been researching Norway’s path to switching to an EV fleet. They are well advanced, with over 85% of new cars sold being EVs in 2022 and over 20% of all cars on the road now being EVs. In 2012 it was less than 1% EVs.
Going from 1% to 20% of cars being EVs has increased Norway’s total grid power consumption by +10%. Yet peak power consumption has only increased by +2%. So sensible charging rates by time has encouraged most people to charge their EV at non peak times of day when EVs are cheaper. (Note Norwegian average mileage is 12000 km/year/car, similar to Australia.)
This is really significant for the economics of the switch. Norway has now saved 20% on its oil consumption bill. The generation system is sized on supplying peak energy, so there has been very little extra power generation infrastructure cost. The main cost has been grid upgrades to support widespread rollout of EV fast chargers.
For power generators, EVs are a benefit. Increasing off-peak power consumption means selling more power that was otherwise surplus. This helps the economics of power generation. The cost of the grid upgrades is less than the cost of the oil consumption avoided.
goll:
Monday, May 15, 2023 at 7:42 pm
Mavis @ 7.19
[“And please stop sucking up.”
Really!’]
Is there a more appropriate adjective? I must admit that dear Clem Lloyd (a Whitlam staffer) warned me not to use the strong ones.
Lars
Agreed. Ukraine either has to win the war or cede all remaining unrecovered territory to join NATO.
I think the odds of acceptance are high once a war is concluded, even if it means Ukraine ceding territory. Once Ukraine is in NATO the odds of further eastern europe wars would be reduced, which would be greatly to the benefit of all NATO members.
It is a bit cliched to say two years is a long time in economics, and many things will happen that we can’t predict. But, from my viewpoint today, there are a range of vital economic trends unfolding that will help the Albanese government woo voters in 2025.
With the frenzied, record interest rate hiking cycle from the Reserve Bank (RBA) between May 2022 and May 2023, an interest rate reversal is becoming likely in 2024 and 2025.
As a result, the rate-hiking cycle should be over within the first year of the government’s term. The discussion in the markets at the moment is on when the first rate cut will be and then how many interest rate cuts will be delivered over the next year or two.
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/why-interest-rates-inflation-set-to-ease-041236273.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw&tsrc=twtr
Um HoldenH – the ABC news is reporting one of the banks is forecasting up to another 0.5% in rate rises. Given the 1 yr anniversary of ScoMo’s Demise is Sunday its hard to see rate rises are over.
Inflation data is out Wednesday so maybe there is something there.
Aaron newton @ Monday, May 15, 2023 at 7:40 pm
along with the liberal party strugiling to fill molans spot months after his death leaving the liberals aone vote short helping labor with out Steve christou being cumberlond mmayor 2gb cant use him to claim labor is some how not interested in ordinary people regularly appears on 2gb and seems based on twitter desperate to fill that vackentsy in the nsw upper house re tweeting hason how ever also going to events for the local mozlim community might be a difficult sell in one nation at least he has a higher profile then the banks town lady tania ma
_________
Steve Christou is an ex -mayor and independent after leaving Labor. He definitely gives of the impression of seeking Mark Latham’s attention. One Nation wants to appeal to fundamental Maronites. It would be a political match.
Lars Von Trier:
Monday, May 15, 2023 at 7:24 pm
[‘Yabba , you posted the same post yesterday? Have you forgotten?’]
Lars, as we get on, we forget what we had for supper, let alone what we posted before supper.
I tend to think that Germanics & Nordics lack a sense of humour as opposed to the English. Indeed, I don’t think they would appreciate Les, Sandy, and Edna, though they were outstanding record-keepers. Pepys.
Soc: “This helps the economics of power generation.”
This doesn’t even take into account the next stage of so much EV capacity in the grid; Storage. In 10 years time, the sheer volume of EVs in Norway will further draw that capacity requirement back because they’ll be available to smooth out peak capacity requirements, not just soak up capacity at non-peak times.
Norway has roughly 3M cars. At 100KWh per car (ball-park) that’s 300GWh. Even if 10% of that is available to the grid, it would allevaite the need for building more capacity for peak requirements.
Aaron newton @ #350 Monday, May 15th, 2023 – 7:43 pm
It’s all me, apparently. 😐
Oh, and get this from Mavis, I have to stop, otherwise he will never stop attacking me! No one else has to stop, just me. When all I was doing, in the first instance, was defending sprocket_, who seems to have become the latest whipping boy of Lars von Trier and nath. I don’t think it’s fair and I said so. But that was bent out of shape into me attacking Lars and nath. Lol.
Anyway, I have better things to do than look at Mavis’ night-time emissions. I’m off to bed.
Jacob Rees-Mogg twigs that the Tories have shot themselves in the foot:
“We found the people who didn’t have ID were elderly and they by and large voted Conservative, so we made it hard for our own voters and we upset a system that worked perfectly well.”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2023/may/15/local-election-results-labour-tactical-voting-considered-keir-starmer-tories-conservatives-rishi-sunak-uk-politics-live
Pi
I agree with you re Norway and the grid potential of lots of EV batteries. (Although note the average EV has more like 50-60 kWhr of power in the battery, not 100.) Some of the grid people in our group do not think it is that simple because of the uncertainty of the battery availability, timing and location. But that isn’t my field.
I have only been looking at the transition period. That is critical economically. Everyone agrees the end point of 100% EVs is a net improvement on now. We save $30+ billion in oil imports just for starters.
But the question was how to get to that point? What happens to the power grid in the mean time? The good news is it looks like it will be fairly benign. Yes there will be costs in upgrading the grid. But there will also be extra power sale in one balancing that, with little extra cost in generation.
Meanwhile the motorists who charge from the grid are still paying less than they would have paid for petrol, so they are better off financially. If the power is off peak and discounted, they pay a lot less. And this power sale is still additional income for the power generator.
This is a change where, if done right, all parties are better off financially as well as environmentally. Except oil companies!
Rory Stewart (sp?) on talking politics, interviewing the man behind austerity George Osborne (who is completely unrepentant in all respects, and as an aside hates Jeremy Corbin and quite likes Starmer, so like a lot of labor camp followers here) noted the supposition that Xi might well want to reunify China (ie reabsorb Tiawan) as a kind of historic career capping achievement.
For a Tory Rory is relatively smart, although he is a deep believer in the idiotic cosplay that is the monarchy, and has a foreign office background, and I found this an interesting theory, and much more compelling than the listicles of idiocy some based their largely racist and very stupid paranoia on.
But as the more idiotic end of the far right war mongering spectrum has fetishizing recently, if Xi did launch a hot military invasion of Taiwan, based on the speculation of Rory that he might want an extra jewel for history to remember him by, well what do you do. If he struggles or fails, you have a chuckle, if he succeeds quickly I guess you have no choice but to pray the AUKUS submarines are delivered about 5 years ago and there are a lot more of them then the actual plan involves.
“I have been researching Norway’s path to switching to an EV fleet”
They are doing great, but they do have the huge advantage of, what is it, 95% hydro?
Oh, everyone is charging their EVs overnight? Open another sluice gate.
Oliver Sutton
My 98yo mother moved into aged care last year and this involved some proof of identity with changes to her Centrelink and banking arrangements.
She can’t attend in person and my sister who handles these matters delighted in telling incredulous cutomer service officers that her mother was born in Boulder in the WA Goldfields, has never lived outside WA, has never left the country, has never held a drivers licence … and she doesn’t have photo ID.
OK?
And you been paying her a pension for 30 something years, she has been banking with you for 50.
Don’t be stupid.
People who want voters to provide photo ID should not be surprised that old people didn’t have it.
Mavis @ #383 Monday, May 15th, 2023 – 8:24 pm
Mavis, I didn’t post anything at all yesterday, apart from a brief query as to how upnorth got his ‘no-holes’ grundies on.
L’Arse, as is their wont, are simply lying. I will back my mental acuity against those frauds any time. The L’arse collective can’t even regularise their spelling mistakes. It forgets what it is trying to impersonate.
I suspect that must be a problem for split personalities. Smarm or viciousness? What will it be this hour?
Rossmcg,
That sounds similar to my MIL’s father. He has most of the ID documents, etc, but one of the banks is asking for his original – ORIGINAL – birth certificate!
Dandy Murray
It is true that Norway’s grid is mostly hydro with the rest mostly geothermal and wind.
But the main point is that most people aren’t driving at the time they cause peak power demand (winter heating plus cooking in early evening). That is the same here, so the point of doing most of the charging outside peak is the same.
So sensible charging rates by time has encouraged most people to charge their EV at non peak times of day when EVs are cheaper. (Note Norwegian average mileage is 12000 km/year/car, similar to Australia.)
This is really significant for the economics of the switch
———————————
Sensible rates? Here?
I am going thru energymadeeasy atm. Nothing easy or sensible there. You’d think with TOU taking on there would be a raft of low cost offpeak power rate offers. But this isn’t happening. Someoffer sub 25c (a couple below 20c) 1am-6am and 10am-3pm. But there is a trade off of very high peak rates and/or high supply charges and/or very low FiT.
A couple of years ago a couple of retailers were offering very low rates offpeak (sub 12c) but they are no more. One was offering interesting seasonal rates but I can’t find that either.
So I agree, sensible ToU rates is a great way to incentivise good use of power and encourage EV take up. It also works for other flexible power use like dishwashers and slab heating. But can we trust our system of generation and retailing to get this right?
I just don’t trust this market to be efficient or fit for the purpose of decarbonisation.
Interesting Four Corners about Russian citizens grappling with the loss of their son/brother in the war in Ukraine (which they are not allowed to call a war).
Team Katich
We can only recommend what is sensible policy. It will be up to government to adopt it.
The previous government nobbled the consumer regulator and virtually gave up on controlling energy prices. That is indefensible and needs to be fixed irrespective of EVs or climate change.
DM
My mother has a birth certificate extract but it’s more than five years old.
Somebody wanted a more recent one.
My sister asked in her nicest voice “really?”
The operative relented.
No doubt there are dodgy people out there.
Old ladies in nursing homes and people managing their affairs need some flexibility.
Rossmcg says:
Monday, May 15, 2023 at 9:48 pm
DM
My mother has a birth certificate extract but it’s more than five years old.
Somebody wanted a more recent one.
My sister asked in her nicest voice “really?”
The operative relented.
No doubt there are dodgy people out there.
Old ladies in nursing homes and people managing their affairs need some flexibility.
中华人民共和国
You wanna try living in Thailand and getting a kids passport renewed! Gotta have an Australian who has known them for a year to sign the photos.
Well COVID chased any Aussies that I befriended away. Had to post them and the form to a mate in Oz who was at her Baptism and then back again. Anyway. Last time that we need to do the running around. Next time she will be 19 and can do it herself!!
I have had the same bank account since 1984. A couple of months ago, the bank contacted me, saying I had to ‘verify my identity’, or access to my account would be restricted.
To do this, I had to enter my driver’s licence n0. and some other ID number. This doesn’t really verify my identity, does it? – it just verifies I had access to those documents.