The Australian reports the post-budget Newspoll finds Labor retaining its strong two-party preferred lead of 55-45, in from 56-44 three weeks ago, from primary votes of Labor 38% (steady), Coalition 34% (up one), Greens 11% (steady) and One Nation 7% (steady). Both leaders are up on personal approval, Anthony Albanese by four to 57% and Peter Dutton by three to 36% – no word yet on disapproval ratings (UPDATE: Albanese’s disapproval is up one to 38% and Dutton’s is down one to 51%). Albanese’s lead on preferred prime minister shifts from 54-28 to 56-29.
Respondents were asked the same set of questions on the budget that Newspoll has been posing since 1988, producing results exactly in line with the long term average on personal impact, with 20% expecting they will be better off and 36% worse off. The results on overall economic impact are net positive, with 33% saying it would be good and 28% bad, although the former is about eight points below the historic average while the latter is par for the course, reflecting a higher than usual result for neither good nor bad. Perhaps relatedly, only 13% expected the budget would have a positive impact on inflation compared with 39% for negative and 33% for no difference. Thirty-five per cent felt the opposition would have done a better job compared with 49% who did not, a difference in line with the long term average, although with a slightly lower undecided rate.
The poll was presumably conducted from Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of around 1600, though there’s no precise indication of the latter yet that I can see. More to follow.
UPDATE: The poll was in fact conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1516. Note that two fresh posts have been pushed down the batting order by this one: a guest post by Adrian Beaumont on today’s Turkish elections, and the latest in the Call of the Board series looking in detail at seat results at last year’s federal election.
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WB: The Australian reports the post-budget Newspoll finds Labor retaining its strong two-party preferred lead of 55-45, in from 56-44 a fortnight ago, from primary votes of Labor 38% (steady), Coalition 34% (up one), Greens 11% (steady) and One Nation 7% (steady).
”
So basically noise as the only change is LNP up by 1% while others remain same.
Ok with 1% counted in the Thai Election updates are as follows:
Latest Thai Updates including Party List Seats – much more counting to do however:
Move Forward – 103 Constituency Seats – 43 Party List – 147
Pheu Thai – 78 Constituency Seats – 23 Party List – 101
BJP – 56 Constituency Seats – 2 Party List – 41
UTN – 15 Constituency Seats – 26 Party List – 41
PPP – 18 Constituency Seats – 1 Party List – 19
38% is the Labor primary vote ceiling – can’t go higher even though hugely unpopular Dutton is the Oppo Leader.
The interesting thing is how much of the 5% difference from the 33% at the election would shift back to the Libs with a more popular leader?
Can’t imagine the government will be too bothered at all by this, thoughts Dutts has done a bit better than I was expecting.
Given the continual attack from the press, the Greens and the Liberals, the poll is an indication of how little power they all now have.
Lars Von Trier
Dutton is safe because he is the best you have.
Given Dutton’s lackluster budget reply speech, 26% is kind to him.
Dutton doesn’t have a positive idea in his head.
Lars:
38% isn’t anything to be scoffed at when you consider how high the minor party and independent vote is these days.
This result would be a landslide if reflected at an election.
Yet Labor can’t get above 38% primary vote?
Asha I think the new normal is who leads on primary vote – not 2PP.
What’s the US expression “support which is a mile wide but an inch deep”
Its not Labor posts that get a million views on TikTok is it?
BJP may well be the King Makers here. Their leader Anutin (currently Health Minister and Deputy PM) today said they will discuss coalitions after the votes are counted. With the PM and his fellow Deputy PM doing so badly BJP could well jump ship and support the opposition in return for Ministerial Leather.
Anutin, who championed Cannabis reform, is not well liked among the Western Expat community calling white people “Dirty Fucking Farangs”. He has however made no secret of his wish to see greater ties with China.
In your Guts you Dutts Nuts and will be dumped at the end of the year when the Voice is passed.
malcolm says:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 10:26 pm
In your Guts you Dutts Nuts and will be dumped at the end of the year when the Voice is passed.
________________________________
Yup – the trendy specs haven’t worked. Vale Dutts! This generations Brendan Nelson.
Nothing to see here says LNP. 🙂
Latest Thai Updates including Party List Seats – 2% counted:
Move Forward – 111 Constituency Seats – 43 Party List – 154
Pheu Thai – 80 Constituency Seats – 23 Party List – 103
BJP – 60 Constituency Seats – 2 Party List – 62
UTN – 19 Constituency Seats – 16 Party List – 35
PPP – 26 Constituency Seats – 1 Party List – 27
Given the continual attack from the press, the Greens and the Liberals, the poll is an indication of how little power they all now have.
===================================
It’s a poll 2 years out from an election. We’ll see how ppl think in 2 years time. As time goes on the major parties, Labor in particular as an ostensibly working class party are going to increasingly struggle to balance the interests of property owners and the increasing number of people who are poorer because they are renting, unable to afford to rent or being heavily mortgaged. How this anger at the current system manifests into votes I don’t know but maintaining the status quo is not going to work for them as a long term political strategy.
”Yet Labor can’t get above 38% primary vote?”
Not while the Greens get 10-12%.
Not to worry, 80-83% of Green votes come back via preferences. That plus over half of independent votes and even one third of One Nation and other nutjobs. Happily, 38% is more than enough, even 35% or 32% with the Teals in play.
Very early counting but currently the Opposition Parties are leading in 200 constituency seats and 67 Party list seats. The Thai Government on these early figures have lost their Majority in the Lower House.
mj,
A very large portion of the country is starting to loose out on the opportunity to be property owners. This includes the working class, who are also sliding back in quality of life.
Love it or loathe it, but this is happening on the ALP’s watch and their lack of emergency like action here is leaving a sour taste.
I don’t agree with the greens ideas on housing. But they ALP was happy to jump on board with half a trillion for some subs. Which is a pretty esoteric workers party goal to have TBH. I think it’s reasonable they start thinking about doing something progressive and substantial in the housing space. I think the ALP vote may get soft after the voice vote. All the problems of today get worse with time.
Whilst dutton may not be a threat to the ALP. The teals should worry them.
mj @ Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 10:33 pm
Given the continual attack from the press, the Greens and the Liberals, the poll is an indication of how little power they all now have.
===================================
It’s a poll 2 years out from an election. We’ll see how ppl think in 2 years time. As time goes on the major parties, Labor in particular as an ostensibly working class party are going to increasingly struggle to balance the interests of property owners and the increasing number of people who are poorer because they are renting, unable to afford to rent or being heavily mortgaged. How this anger at the current system manifests into votes I don’t know but the status quo is not going to work long term.
__________________________
Ah, the venerable wait and see strategy. Might take some time
https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/australias-welfare/home-ownership-and-housing-tenure#
May result in a tunnelling out of inner city votes to minorities and independents.
But you are safe in saying that the status quo will not work long-term. We can rely on entropy 🙂
Lars:
The primary vote is never going to be super relevant in a system with full preferential voting. Sure, you obviously would prefer a higher primary vote than a lower one, but ultimately the important thing is that you get enough primary votes to get into the final count in at least 50% of seats and then enough preferences to win those seats.
I have to say I’m an AUKUS sceptic. $368 billion does seem like an awful lot for just 8 submarines from the old and new anglo empires, even if it includes the costs for operating them for the first couple of decades. Surely for that much we could we get a Death Star.
The usual shite from Benson:
Deflated voters aren’t buying Treasurer’s spin on budget
Jim Chalmers has failed to convince Australians that Labor’s first full budget since the election will reduce inflation, Newspoll shows.
Steve777says:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 10:51 pm
“I have to say I’m an AUKUS sceptic. $368 billion does seem like an awful lot for just 8 submarines from the old and new anglo empires, even if it includes the costs for operating them for the first couple of decades. Surely for that much we could we get a Death Star”
_________
I think we’d likely settle for a reconditioned star destroyer and a couple of taun-tauns!
Dutton cant lay a glove on Albo. He is just an empty headed potato.
Lars 1, Lars 2, Lars 3 etc or Lars Inc.
The Liberal brand,oops, party is finished.
Stop looking at the primary votes for Labor, look at the ordinary effort from your lot and wonder how they are going to get past 38%.
The Newspoll sample size is 1600, so the margin of error is 2½%.
The change in the 2PP and primary votes is likely just statistical noise.
The shift in approval ratings is significant – more people are taking one or other side, with Albo miles ahead. The change in preferred Prime Minister is not significant.
Only 1 Liberal Govt left in the whole country and they lost 2 more MPs this week and theyre in minority.
steve davissays:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 10:56 pm
The usual shite from Benson:
Deflated voters aren’t buying Treasurer’s spin on budget
Jim Chalmers has failed to convince Australians that Labor’s first full budget since the election will reduce inflation, Newspoll shows.
===============================================================
Don’t worry Steve.
Bookmark that quote and return it to Benson when inflation doesn’t increase.
Quote me in saying very confidentially that it won’t increase if you like!
Once in government many Labor types love to be taken seriously by the establishment, so unsurprisingly, they adopt pro establishment policies. Since Kimbo became minister of Defence that has escalated. Defence is a prime area for these types to show off their serious credentials to the elite.
Been There
True. How can someone getting $20 a week extra fuel inflation? Its less than a 25th of the population. It was on Channel 7 tonight that Potato is opposing it.
Latest Thai Updates including Party List Seats – 6% of the vote counted:
Move Forward – 110 Constituency Seats – 43 Party List – 153*
Pheu Thai – 82 Constituency Seats – 23 Party List – 105*
BJP – 67 Constituency Seats – 2 Party List – 69
UTN – 28 Constituency Seats – 26 Party List – 44
PPP – 21 Constituency Seats – 1 Party List – 22
Democrats -20 Constitunecy Seats – 1 Party List – 21
Charthai Pattana – 9 Constituency Seats
Thai Builds Thai – 4 Constituency Seats*
Prachachat – 2 Constituency Seats*
Seri Ruam Thai – 2 Constituency Seats*
* Denotes Opposition Parties
Steve Davis
Yep exactly!
In Breaking News from Thailand
“The leader of the Move Forward Party (MFP) said on Sunday evening he expected to form a coalition government with the Pheu Thai Party, enabling the former opposition bloc to rise to power. MFP leader Pita Limjaroenrat said exit polls suggested that MFP and Pheu Thai could have enough House seats to form the next government.”
Upnorth is that only 6% of the vote counted or am I reading it wrong?
Sorry edited. (Added comments)
Added a bit more
Looking good for the progressive parties Upnorth !
Been There says:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 11:30 pm
Upnorth is that only 6% of the vote counted or am I reading it wrong?
ราชอาณาจักรไทย
You got it right cobber. Only 6% so numbers can and will change. By 11pm Thai Time the EC will stop counting. But the trends have been consistent and match exit polls. The EC has counted about 13.5% of the vote but they don’t update automatically however media do have pretty good access.
I get my numbers from a mate at the “The Nation” News group.
Been There says:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 11:30 pm
Upnorth is that only 6% of the vote counted or am I reading it wrong?
Sorry edited. (Added comments)
Added a bit more
Looking good for the progressive parties Upnorth !
ราชอาณาจักรไทย
Yes cobber they are currently pulling about 56% of the vote to 34% for the Conservative Parties. The Democrats – Thailand’s oldest Political Party and one time Government have crashed (again) only managing 5% of the vote. They got into bed with the Military Government and I guess got fleas.
Re Up North @11:24.
That looks like 266 / 500 Lower House seats to the Opposition. Hopefully they don’t have to worry about postals whittling away their lead over the next couple of weeks. Maybe late-arriving votes from remote areas can change things?
Re zoomster’s husband and Sarah Henderson, dare I suggest that with a genuine threatening email you would just notify the AFP without further ado or provoking the threatener. Actively replying with a claim you’re referring the email to the AFP looks more like intimidation aimed at critics to me.
The shift in Newspoll is tiny and well within the margin of error and any real reaction to the budget will take more than a couple of days to percolate through our relatively disengaged electorate. Any journo claiming it proves anything in either direction isn’t worth listening to.
There are about 59 seats left to get results. Most in the North East (28) where Pheu Thai will do well. Then the South (16) where the Democrats and UTN will do well. 5 seats apeice on the Central Plains and North Region should see Pheu Thai and Move Forward make the majority of gains.
In Bangkok Move Forward has taken 32 of the 33 seats and Pheu Thai 1. The Government has been kicked out of the Capital and largest City in Thailand.
Steve777 says:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 11:41 pm
Re Up North @11:24.
That looks like 266 / 500 Lower House seats to the Opposition. Hopefully they don’t have to worry about postals whittling away their lead over the next couple of weeks. Maybe late-arriving votes from remote areas can change things?
ราชอาณาจักรไทย
No Postals or Absentees here. One day of prepoll and they have been counted.
Latest Thai Updates including Party List Seats – 18.44% of the vote counted:
Move Forward – 117 Constituency Seats – 43 Party List – 160*
Pheu Thai – 86 Constituency Seats – 23 Party List – 109*
BJP – 66 Constituency Seats – 2 Party List – 68
UTN – 26 Constituency Seats – 26 Party List – 52
PPP – 23 Constituency Seats – 1 Party List – 24
Democrats -20 Constituency Seats – 1 Party List – 21
Charthai Pattana – 8 Constituency Seats
Thai Builds Thai – 5 Constituency Seats*
Prachachat – 5 Constituency Seats*
Seri Ruam Thai – 2 Constituency Seats*
Pheu Thai United – 1 Constituency Seat*
KLA – 1 Constituency Seat*
* Denotes Opposition Parties
Opposition leading in 283 seats
Consumer advice to all.
Normally drink Hahn Superdry as a prelude to whatever I decide to have as a follow up.
Accidentally picked up a six pack of Hahn Superdry GF (GF meaning gluten free).
My call?
Unless you really need GF avoid very seriously, and I mean that!
Horrible taste and smell, but that’s me!
Sorry Upnorth, no NQ Lager or Cairns Draught down here where I am at the moment.
And those that don’t know otherwise don’t get me started on that pathetic stuff they call Great Northern pffff!
My Dad’s first job was in the Cairns brewery that every train out of and into Cairns passed as it left near the National Hotel, now the Cape York Hotel. (Go the old Sunlander!)
Enough history, great Northern and Hahn Superdry GF suck, and dear old Dad would be mortified to see the wonderful brews that came out of that brewery turned into commercial pish!
Been There says:
Monday, May 15, 2023 at 12:13 am
Consumer advice to all.
Normally drink Hahn Superdry as a prelude to whatever I decide to have as a follow up.
Accidentally picked up a six pack of Hahn Superdry GF (GF meaning gluten free).
My call?
Unless you really need GF avoid very seriously, and I mean that!
Horrible taste and smell, but that’s me!
Sorry Upnorth, no NQ Lager or Cairns Draught down here where I am at the moment.
And those that don’t know otherwise don’t get me started on that pathetic stuff they call Great Northern pffff!
My Dad’s first job was in the Cairns brewery that every train out of and into Cairns passed as it left near the National Hotel, now the Cape York Hotel. (Go the old Sunlander!)
Enough history, great Northern and Hahn Superdry GF suck, and dear old Dad would be mortified to see the wonderful brews that came out of that brewery turned into commercial pish!
ราชอาณาจักรไทย
Geez cobber thats a tough lesson. For my 2st my folks got be an 18 gallon keg of Cairns Draught. The old man and I and a few mates sat under the Mango tree and drank it dry. Cairns Draught was tops in a keg.
Going to put the Nipper to bed and then will give an Thai update. Close to 50% counted now.
Latest Thai Updates including Party List Seats – 38% of the vote counted – Note this count includes official EC figures and The Nation figures for the first time:
Move Forward – 119 Constituency Seats – 35 Party List – 154*
Pheu Thai – 87 Constituency Seats – 32 Party List – 119*
BJP – 67 Constituency Seats – 4 Party List – 71
UTN – 20 Constituency Seats – 13 Party List – 33
PPP – 38 Constituency Seats – 2 Party List – 40
Democrats -18 Constituency Seats – 1 Party List – 19
Charthai Pattana – 8 Constituency Seats
Thai Builds Thai – 6 Constituency Seats*
Prachachat – 5 Constituency Seats*
Seri Ruam Thai – 2 Constituency Seats*
Pheu Thai United – 1 Constituency Seat*
KLA – 1 Constituency Seat*
* Denotes Opposition Parties
Opposition leading in 287 seats
Thanks for your updates on the Thailand election Upnorth.
You might not think so but a lot of silents are following, maybe a PM or POTUS!
The variety and extent of WB’s Pollbludger extends worldwide.
Re beer:
Cairns Draught was beautiful on a hot tropical day, the newcomer pretender Great Northern pish not so much!
Been There says:
Monday, May 15, 2023 at 12:58 am
Thanks for your updates on the Thailand election Upnorth.
You might not think so but a lot of silents are following, maybe a PM or POTUS!
The variety and extent of WB’s Pollbludger extends worldwide.
Re beer:
Cairns Draught was beautiful on a hot tropical day, the newcomer pretender Great Northern pish not so much!
ราชอาณาจักรไทย
Thanks thanks needed matey. I heard they were brewing that Great Northern Stuff at the old Powers Brewery on the Gold Coast. Not sure – I tried it once. Weak as well – you know.
Good to know I’m not the only lunatic out there!
On the Party List Vote the 4 main Government Parties are polling 14.87 % among themselves. PPP which formed the backbone of the previous Government has gone from 23.3% of the vote to 1.16% on the Party List and 10.35% at the constituency level.