Budget polling: Essential Research and Resolve Strategic (open thread)

Resolve Strategic offers better budget response numbers than Essential or Newspoll, with no sign of any impact one way or the other on voting intention.

Essential Research and Resolve Strategic offer further numbers on budget polling, both tending to support Newspoll’s impression of a lukewarm response to the budget, and one — or possibly two, with Resolve Strategic to be confirmed — also supporting its finding of no discernible impact on voting intention.

What we have so far from Essential Research is a report in The Guardian relating that its 2PP+ measure of voting intention has Labor steady on 53% and the Coalition up one to 42%, with the remainder undecided; Anthony Albanese up three on approval to 54% and down two on disapproval to 35%; and Peter Dutton steady on approval at 36% and up one on disapproval to 45%. For primary votes will have to wait for the pollster’s publication of its full results later today.

The poll found 24% expecting the government would be good for them personally, which presumably had a corresponding result for bad that will also have to wait for the full report. Only limited numbers felt it would create jobs (33%), reduce debt (29%), reduce cost-of-living pressures (26%), whereas 46% felt it would “create long-term problems that will need to be fixed in the future”. Respondents were most likely to rate that the budget would be good for people receiving government payments and least likely to younger Australians and “average working people”.

There was also a forced response questions on the Indigenous Voice and a republic, the former finding the margin from yes in to 59-41 from 60-40 a month ago, with small state sub-samples finding recording big leads in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia, but an even balance in Queensland and Western Australia. The republic question, which apparently left the devil undetailed, broke 54-46 in favour. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1080.

The Resolve Strategic poll in the Age/Herald, which will presumably follow up with voting intention results fairly short, seemingly produced the most favourable results for the budget, with 31% saying it would be good for them and their household compared with 26% for bad; 44% good for the country with 17% for bad; 36% good for the health of the economy with 15% for bad; and 39% good for “rebuilding a healthy budget” with 17% for bad. Similarly to Essential Research, it found respondents were most likely to see the budget as good for the less fortunate and disadvantaged, with 56% for good and 14% for poor, but it substantially more positive results for both older people (48% good and 17% bad) and younger people (39% and 17%).

Respondents were asked about twelve specific items in the budget, finding majority support for all but two: limiting growth in NDIS spending to 8% a year, which still recorded a net positive result with 37% in favour and 17% opposed, and facilities for the Brisbane Olympics and Tasmanian AFL, which were supported by 27% and opposed by 37%. The most popular measure was the spending on Medicare to encourage bulk billing, at 81% in favour and 5% opposed, with funding for a wage increase for aged care workers, energy bill relief and doubling of medicine prescription periods recording between 73% and 75% support. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1610.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research voting intention numbers are here and the full report here. The former’s primary votes are very strong for Labor, suggesting the static 2PP+ numbers relied on a change in respondent-allocated preferences: Labor are up two 35%, the Coalition are down one to 31%, the Greens are steady on 14%, One Nation are steady on 5% and the United Australia Party is down one to 1%. Further, the report allows comparison of the budget response with five budgets going back to 2020, which makes the numbers look better than at first blush. Twenty-four per cent for “good for you personally” is about par for the course; the 41% and 37% for “good for people on lower incomes” and “good for older Australians” are comfortably the strongest results out of five budgets going back to 2020; 46% for “place unnecessary burdens on future generations” is the best result of the five.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

839 comments on “Budget polling: Essential Research and Resolve Strategic (open thread)”

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  1. “Good job, Nath, now we’re all going to be subjected to the Hiroshima rant again.”


    Did Boer ever tell you his theory that Xi = Hitler?

  2. Borewar did celebrate it. Oh no, Borewar is Dutch. Who would have thought it. Oh well, there is another one to add to the list.

  3. Dutch women are hot.

    So there is that as well.

    Total Football and hot women.

    Also Joop Zoetemelk. Winner of the 1980 Tour de France.

    If anyone thought that Lance Armstrong invented doping in cycling good ole’ Joop competed in the days when doping violations would result in a 10 minute penalty. … which Joop received on three occasions.

  4. More disgusting tactics from the “No” campaign:

    In a reply on 22 April to a tweet from Indigenous Australians minister Linda Burney quoting a supporter of the voice, Price wrote: “Vincent Lingiari’s grandson thinks otherwise”.

    Price included a screenshot from the website for no campaign Fair Australia showing Stewart Lingiari beside a quote saying: “I don’t want you to look at me differently. That’s why I’m voting no”.

    Mundine, leader of the Recognise A Better Way campaign, tweeted the same screenshot on his account 40 minutes later, writing: “Vincent Lingiari’s grandson is voting No!”

    Speaking to Guardian Australia, Stewart confirmed he was not related to Vincent Lingiari, and had been given that surname when he was adopted as a child.

    “I’m not from that family. If they had asked me directly, I would have told them I’m not his grandson but they never asked me,” he said.

    He claimed he had not given permission for his image to be used in this way and felt “humiliated” by the episode.

    “Now I hear my picture is all over social media. It’s very wrong what they did, I want it to stop, I want them to take it down.”


    “I’m nowhere near Vincent Lingiari, I’m not his grandson,” Mr Lingiari said in a phone interview with FactLab.

    He said his photo had been taken in Canberra in March during a meeting with federal politicians which was arranged to bring together Aboriginal community representatives.

    He travelled to Canberra as part of a traditional owners group comprising nine representatives from the Millwarparra Aboriginal Corporation in the Northern Territory, for an opportunity to discuss issues relating to his hometown of Ngukurr, he said

    After the meeting with politicians including Senator Price and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton, as well as Mr Mundine, the group was asked for its opinion on the referendum, he said.

    He, along with other members of the group, discussed the Voice referendum and were then asked to recite sentences provided to them, while being photographed and videoed, he said. “I was told to say that word there: ‘I don’t want you to look at me differently. That’s why I am voting no’,” Mr Lingiari said.

    He said he was unaware of the planned referendum for an Indigenous Voice to Parliament before the meeting in Canberra and remained unsure of what it was about.

    He was also unaware that his photo had been published on the Fair Australia website until he was contacted by FactLab.

    “If I would have [known] what this Voice was, I wouldn’t have said this. This is what the cameraman told me to say,” Mr Lingiari told FactLab.

    “I don’t want this photo to exist. I went there to sort a problem out. I didn’t go there to put myself on camera,” he said.


  5. “Uric acid is produced by metabolising foods with high levels of purines”

    Absolutely correct Dandy!

    I always know that after a session on the booze, beer mainly but Wild Turkey also, I need to get the NSAID’s into me, because if’n I don’t there’s a world of grief headed my way!

    Always have a daily Progout and if I feel it coming on pop an Arthrexin aka Indometacin or is that Indocin!

    Does the job for me, however Doctors advice is always recommended!

  6. The No campaign are as expected assholes, but the Yes campaign doesn’t seem to have put its boots on yet. It’s probably about time to get onto that.

  7. Clem:

    I was talking about your baffling hatred of Dutch people.

    Boerwar’s, er, unfortunate commentary on Hiroshima and Nagasaki doesn’t reflect particularly well on him, but it’s got nothing to do with the people of his mother country.

  8. Asha wrote, “I was talking about your baffling hatred of Dutch people.”

    A retraction please? I never wrote that. I wrote that I had never liked one I had met. I am sure that there are some decent ones, it’s just that I have never met any.

  9. Need a quote Asha, of “Boerwar’s, er, unfortunate commentary on Hiroshima and Nagasaki” before I comment more.

    Do you have one?

    I may have missed it, only tuned in around 7pm ?

  10. Been There:

    Oh, it didn’t happen tonight, this was ages ago.

    Unless someone else can be bothered digging it up – because I certainly cannot – I’m afraid you’re just going to have to take our word for it.

  11. Been There wrote, “need a quote Asha, of “Boerwar’s, er, unfortunate commentary on Hiroshima and Nagasaki” before I comment more.”

    It was awhile ago, on the anniversary if I remember correctly. To be fair to him, he wasn’t the only one on here celebrating. If I recall, it was all justified, you know, the murder of innocent women and children because of the treatment meted out by the JIA in The Dutch East Indies. All a a bit unhinged if you ask me.

  12. My apologies, Clem, I will rephrase:

    “I was talking about your bizarre decision to make numerous posts about how you’ve disliked every single Dutch person you’ve ever met, while also banging on about them being Nazi collaborators, a claim which may have a kernel of truth in it but is hardly relevant today given that the vast majority of Dutch people wouldn’t have even been alive during WW2. But, hey, at least some of the women are hot!”

    Hmm… that doesn’t quite flow off of the tongue as well.

  13. Asha, I wrote that that they had a lot of collaborators. I never said that they were all collaborators. What I wrote was was an historical fact. P.S. somebody else first raised the whole Dutch are morally dubious thing, not me. I simply made the observation that none I had met had been pleasant people. Or words to that effect.

  14. A little, a lot, all of them, its all still utterly irrelevant to any assessment of the Dutch people as they exist today because almost all of those collaborators are long dead!

  15. P.S. somebody else first raised the whole Dutch are morally dubious thing, not me.

    Mate, I’m pretty sure they were just trying to troll Boerwar, not make a serious point.

  16. Subject change needed!

    St George Illawarra Dragons NRL top eight contenders 2024, or never, thoughts?

    Mine? Not going to happen again, despite being a Dragons tragic since a baby!

    Ps. Cairns Kangaroos player 1980 & 1983, cheers any old boys that may recognise me!!

    Big centre gone slow turned to front rower did good!

    Not you Upnorth, Townsville, Foley Shield…pfft…!

  17. Been There says:
    Wednesday, May 17, 2023 at 11:23 pm
    Subject change needed!

    St George Illawarra Dragons NRL top eight contenders 2024, or never, thoughts?

    Mine? Not going to happen again, despite being a Dragons tragic since a baby!

    Ps. Cairns Kangaroos player 1980 & 1983, cheers any old boys that may recognise me!!

    Big centre gone slow turned to front rower did good!

    Not you Upnorth, Townsville, Foley Shield…pfft…!
    Bugger off. Townsville and Foley Shield. What joke cobber. Townsville were always jelly backs and Upstarts in Cricket and Football.

    Nope I’m a Burdekin Rooster. And none of that Ayr bull too. Home Hill Devils for me.

    But Burdekin produced some Kangaroos like Les Wellington. Brian Bevan also.

    Souths Magpies from Brisbane with a young Mal Meninga as Captain came and played Burdekin when I was a kid. Burdekin flogged them.

    The old man was a far better player than me. Played with Vern and Frank Daisy. Mt Isa always fielded a good team.

    Up your way John Gayler, Labor MP for Leichhardt for a decade played against dad too. I notice John passed away last year.

    Warren Pitt was also pretty handy on the field. I do hope Curtis is ok. Terribly sad to hear what he is going through.

    Back to Townsville though. I remember we played them in Cricket once. Home turf for them too. It was just after rain. They won the toss and batted. Bowled them out for 12 and we quickly made 112 and declared. Bowled them out for 11 on the next go.

    Lost a lot of matches though. You always forget them ones. But I reckon I’ve come out ahead in sporting comps and elections.

    In life however I got hit on the arse by a rainbow!

    Foley Shield cobber. Now that was tough.

  18. Asha says:
    Wednesday, May 17, 2023 at 11:55 pm
    Some breaking news from News.com.au:
    Thanks Asha. I will sleep much better knowing this.

  19. Wow Upnorth!

    Great tales, too many to respond to at the moment!

    Remember the Daisy lads from Mt Isa.

    Great league players!

    Dad was a good all-rounder cricket player in Cairns, played against a handy touring team that included Richie Benaud and a handful of Australian players.

    He was asked to go to Brisbane and play Sheffield Shield by senior players in that visiting team, he declined, citing family reasons.

    I have a picture of the teams and will post them when I get a chance.

    Apologies if you thought I was having a dig at you Upnorth.

    Thought you were a Townsville lad by your posts.

    Thanks for your excellent coverage of your hometown elections.

    Looks like all going well things will be a lot better in your part of the world.

    Cheers Cobber!

  20. Mavis, A-E, Shellbell, WWP and other legal PBers
    Article by Sydney Criminal Lawyer
    AUKUS Powers Are Militarising Papua New Guinea in Preparation for War with China
    16/05/2023 BY PAUL GREGOIRE


    “Journalist John Pilger’s 2017 documentary “The Coming War With China” warned that the US had established a “perfect noose” of 400-odd military bases surrounding China, while former Australian PM Paul Keating recently asserted that the AUKUS deal makes us part of this “containment policy”.

    Indeed, the AUKUS, local US force posture initiatives and increasing interoperability between US and Australian forces have heightened the premise that this relationship has relegated our nation to the status of a vassal state: independent domestically but ever-compliant with US foreign policy.

    However, the increasing deployment of US troops and arsenal to Australian shores doesn’t complete Washington’s agenda, as there is an island nation to the north of this one, that being Papua New Guinea, which the White House is interested in incorporating into its ring around Beijing’s neck.

    This process involves AUKUS power Australia acting in a similar manner to that of the US in regard to us, when it comes to accessing and periodically obtaining control over certain Australian military facilities, as Canberra is taking a similar path at PNG’s Lombrum Naval Base in Manus province.

    And while most Australians are aware that Joe Biden is coming to our country next week as part of the China-focused Quad alliance leaders meeting, many are unaware that the US president will also be paying a visit to our northern neighbour on his way, seeking to establish defence agreements.

    Of strategic importance
    In USA, Australia Militarizing PNG, a paper released last month, journalist and ex-PNG foreign affairs officer Dominic Navue Sengi describes the AUKUS pact as “a case of vassals”, specifically our country and the United Kingdom, “lining up together under US leadership”.

    Sengi outlines that he’d predicted in 2006 that PNG would be of increasing importance to the western alliance, when it began targeting China in the South China Sea, as PNG sits squarely in “an island chain”, commencing in Tokyo to Saipan and onto Guam: “the US’ so-called ‘big spearhead’ looking into China”.

  21. Been There says:
    Thursday, May 18, 2023 at 12:30 am
    No apologies needed matey. Truly. Not many jobs in the Burdekin for Labor Leaning folk. So worked all around the place and ended up in The Ville before moving up here.

    Your old man sounds Ace. Dad played against Hall and Sobers In Bundaberg during a tour. Queensland Country. He said Wes Hall was the fastest person he ever faced and he bowled out Sir Garfield Sobers!

    Like many from regional Queensland though, the move to the big smoke was too hard. No money and no family support.

    Bloody good to talk to you cobber. I’m going to try and get some sleep.

    Love to see your pics. Keep safe – hey.

  22. The lunacy of the media again:

    Prince Harry and Meghan Markle have released a statement saying they and the Duchess’s mum Doria Ragland were ‘involved in a near catastrophic car chase at the hands of a ring of highly aggressive paparazzi’ after attending an event in New York last night.

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