Budget polling: Essential Research and Resolve Strategic (open thread)

Resolve Strategic offers better budget response numbers than Essential or Newspoll, with no sign of any impact one way or the other on voting intention.

Essential Research and Resolve Strategic offer further numbers on budget polling, both tending to support Newspoll’s impression of a lukewarm response to the budget, and one — or possibly two, with Resolve Strategic to be confirmed — also supporting its finding of no discernible impact on voting intention.

What we have so far from Essential Research is a report in The Guardian relating that its 2PP+ measure of voting intention has Labor steady on 53% and the Coalition up one to 42%, with the remainder undecided; Anthony Albanese up three on approval to 54% and down two on disapproval to 35%; and Peter Dutton steady on approval at 36% and up one on disapproval to 45%. For primary votes will have to wait for the pollster’s publication of its full results later today.

The poll found 24% expecting the government would be good for them personally, which presumably had a corresponding result for bad that will also have to wait for the full report. Only limited numbers felt it would create jobs (33%), reduce debt (29%), reduce cost-of-living pressures (26%), whereas 46% felt it would “create long-term problems that will need to be fixed in the future”. Respondents were most likely to rate that the budget would be good for people receiving government payments and least likely to younger Australians and “average working people”.

There was also a forced response questions on the Indigenous Voice and a republic, the former finding the margin from yes in to 59-41 from 60-40 a month ago, with small state sub-samples finding recording big leads in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia, but an even balance in Queensland and Western Australia. The republic question, which apparently left the devil undetailed, broke 54-46 in favour. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1080.

The Resolve Strategic poll in the Age/Herald, which will presumably follow up with voting intention results fairly short, seemingly produced the most favourable results for the budget, with 31% saying it would be good for them and their household compared with 26% for bad; 44% good for the country with 17% for bad; 36% good for the health of the economy with 15% for bad; and 39% good for “rebuilding a healthy budget” with 17% for bad. Similarly to Essential Research, it found respondents were most likely to see the budget as good for the less fortunate and disadvantaged, with 56% for good and 14% for poor, but it substantially more positive results for both older people (48% good and 17% bad) and younger people (39% and 17%).

Respondents were asked about twelve specific items in the budget, finding majority support for all but two: limiting growth in NDIS spending to 8% a year, which still recorded a net positive result with 37% in favour and 17% opposed, and facilities for the Brisbane Olympics and Tasmanian AFL, which were supported by 27% and opposed by 37%. The most popular measure was the spending on Medicare to encourage bulk billing, at 81% in favour and 5% opposed, with funding for a wage increase for aged care workers, energy bill relief and doubling of medicine prescription periods recording between 73% and 75% support. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1610.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research voting intention numbers are here and the full report here. The former’s primary votes are very strong for Labor, suggesting the static 2PP+ numbers relied on a change in respondent-allocated preferences: Labor are up two 35%, the Coalition are down one to 31%, the Greens are steady on 14%, One Nation are steady on 5% and the United Australia Party is down one to 1%. Further, the report allows comparison of the budget response with five budgets going back to 2020, which makes the numbers look better than at first blush. Twenty-four per cent for “good for you personally” is about par for the course; the 41% and 37% for “good for people on lower incomes” and “good for older Australians” are comfortably the strongest results out of five budgets going back to 2020; 46% for “place unnecessary burdens on future generations” is the best result of the five.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

839 comments on “Budget polling: Essential Research and Resolve Strategic (open thread)”

Comments Page 1 of 17
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  1. Credit where credit is due – Germany under Olaf Scholz and Boris Pistorius have done an excellent job leading an often fractious nation towards stalwart support for Ukraine:

    “…of all Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s meetings with fellow European leaders over the past few days – from Rome to Paris to Chequers today for more hardware and more embraces with Rishi Sunak – his day in Germany may be remembered as the most important. The announcement on the eve of his visit of a doubling of military aid to Ukraine to a total of more than €5bn finally brings Germany in from the cold. The consequences may take months to be seen on the battlefield, but in geo-strategic terms they are immediate.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/may/15/germany-war-in-ukraine-olaf-scholz-volodymyr-zelenskiy-military-aid-policy

  2. Condemnation where condemnation is due – Hungary’s Orban, yet again, wants to see Ukrainians keep getting killed by his pal, Putin, unless he can greedily take some of the funds the rest of the EU has devoted to protecting Ukraine from deadly Russian attacks on its soil:

    “Hungary has blocked the payment of the eighth package of €500 million from the European Peace Fund for weapons that EU member states are supplying to Ukraine. The €500 million package was due to be allocated next Monday, 22 May, but Budapest has blocked the decision, supposedly demanding “guarantees” that the European Peace Fund would not be used exclusively for aid to Ukraine in the future.”

    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/05/15/7402344/

    If Orban wants ‘guarantees’, he’s right in Budapest – a 2023 ‘memorandum’ should be very easy to arrange. 😐

  3. so dutton has not worked out that if he wants to be pm he needs to apeel morethen just sky news the molan senate seat has not ben filled niver has the one nation seat to replace latham as he won a second term

  4. Reportage from the Kyiv Independent of the last two days’ fighting around Bakhmut:

    “In the past two days, Ukraine’s Armed Forces have advanced on the flanks around Bakhmut from 350 meters to 2 kilometers “in some places,” a spokesperson for the Ukrainian military’s Eastern Operational Command said on May 15.

    “However, the enemy is fiercely resisting,” Serhii Cherevatyi said on national television, as cited by Interfax Ukraine.

    According to the official, 34 combat clashes occurred in the Bakhmut area over the previous 24 hours, with Russian forces firing at Ukrainian positions 479 times. During this period, the Ukrainian military reportedly killed 149 Russian soldiers, wounded 160, and captured six more in the fighting over Ukraine’s key eastern city.

    “In fact, Bakhmut is now a bifurcation point, a point of resolution of this conflict, because if the enemy does not find an opportunity to replenish its forces there, then we will simply destroy it,” added Cherevatyi.”

    https://kyivindependent.com/military-official-ukrainian-forces-advance-on-bakhmut-flanks-despite-russias-fierce-resistance/

    Russian forces, predominantly Wagner PMC, struggled to average 100m of advance a day anywhere at any time during their own nine-month campaign to seize the city. Ukraine’s counterattack is an order of magnitude more potent in places.

  5. Tragic scenes in Wellington NZ with the hostel fire.

    94 people were staying in the hostel and authorities fear the worst.

    Very sad.

  6. Peter Dutton steady on approval at 36% and up one on disapproval to 45%

    Lib/nats are in a total political mess , its unlikely any current alternative leader in the Liberal party , would be polling much better

  7. Also, I imagine Dandy Murray or Socrates may be able to answer this question…

    Why does South Korea have any right to object to Australia, where the minerals come from, developing an EV Battery manufacturing industry!?!
    Just because they have one already, doesn’t mean we can’t have one as well, surely!?!

  8. From previous thread:

    “The voice has majority support in most states, with more than 60% backing it in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia; although support is slimmer in Western Australia, where the yes side leads 52% to 48%. The only state opposed is Queensland, with 51% against the voice and 49% in favour.”

    Or, framing it another way:

    • support > 60% in NSW, VIC, SA;

    • support around 50:50 in WA and QLD.

    That’s quite striking polarisation!

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/may/16/guardian-essential-poll-labor-maintains-large-lead-over-coalition-despite-budget-failing-to-impress-voters

  9. “Dandy Murray has slab heating? In Queensland!?!”

    Where did you get that from!? I have beautiful suspended hardwood floors.

    On Korea, they are just looking after their own.

  10. My bad, DM. Tea hadn’t had time to filter through to brain. It was Team Katich. And it does get cold in the Adelaide Hills in winter, that’s for sure.

  11. Lars Von Trier @ Tuesday, May 16, 2023 at 6:45 am:
    “Enough Already only 2 more posts and you can blow past your old voluntary 6 a day limit before 7am.”
    ==========

    Damn! Missed it!

  12. Morning bludgers.

    This was posted on the previous thread, just as our lord god created this one:

    Beware the socialist left within the Labor party: always a hair-trigger off hitting the self destruct button.

    This ‘housing policy overhaul’ push needs to be banged on the head – at least in its present guise.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/five-lines-of-fluff-labor-insiders-want-housing-policy-shake-up-to-fight-off-greens-20230515-p5d8hp.html

    Limiting negative gearing to one property per investor is just ‘politics of envy’. Declaring ghosting to be a human right is pure motherhood ‘jazz fingers’.

    The ‘evils’ of negative gearing are only apparent when considered in light with how it interests with other policy settings. Most notably Howard’s capital gains tax deduction. THAT is the ‘evil’ – for two reasons: as a duel tax avoidance mechanism it has pushed up housing prices to astronomical levels; and both apply to all forms of real property.

    Labor basically had the right policy back in 2019: negative glaring and the capital gains deduction should only be available for new builds. In fact, IMO that policy could be enhanced further, and could take elements from the socialist left’s ‘housing push’ without engaging the political auto destruct button: ie. limit negative gearing and the capital gains deduction for second and subsequent properties to ‘build to rent’ social and affordable housing stock.

    Of course, IMO there would still need to be some sort of middle class bribe to get this across the line. The great mistake of 2019 was that Labor’s franking policies and negative gearing/capital gains reforms were not tied to income tax cuts as part of a ‘grand bargain’ alla keating and labor in the 1980s. Instead, deputy leader and socialist left warrior Tanya P managed to convince Shorton to blow the receipts of the franking credits and capital gains reforms on social policies that did not find favour with the voting public.

    Perhaps these sort of reforms could still be tied to S3 now to make it ‘affordable’. It would be a tough sell though – because S3 has been enacted into law already ‘for nothing’ in terms of meaningful reform in return.

  13. Enough Already @ #3 Tuesday, May 16th, 2023 – 6:12 am

    Meanwhile – another day, more attacks by Moscow killing Ukrainian civilians:

    “2 civilians killed, 6 injured in Russian attacks on 3 Ukrainian regions”

    https://kyivindependent.com/2-civilians-killed-6-injured-in-russian-attacks-on-3-ukrainian-regions/

    😡

    Enough Already,
    Every military expert I listen to says that Ruzzia is going to keep on going with this campaign at least until the American Presidential election in November 2024. Putin, of course, hopes that Trump will be elected, and then that Trump will remove the support of America from Ukraine, which will weaken the support of Europe and especially those countries in the EU, such as Hungary and France, which want to appease/facilitate Putin’s re-entry into the world order. Then, when that happens and the support falls away, but the shelling of civilian infrastructure hasn’t ceased for over 2 years, then the Ukrainian population will call on their leaders to capitulate to Putin. At least that’s the plan that Putin has.

    If he survives that long himself, that is.

  14. ‘America’s Mayor’ gets creepier and creepier.

    Part of the job required Dunphy to record her interactions with Giuliani “anytime, anywhere, as well as Giuliani’s interactions with others,” the lawsuit said.

    “But unbeknownst to Ms. Dunphy, Giuliani apparently decided during the interview that he would use the job offer and his representation as a pretext to develop a quid pro quo sexual relationship with Ms. Dunphy. He was later recorded telling Ms. Dunphy, ‘I’ve wanted you from the day I interviewed you,'” the lawsuit said.

    According to the lawsuit, a week into her employment, Giuliani had Dunphy flown to New York on a chartered plane and insisted she stay in a guest suite in his upper east side apartment. The two drank and at one point “Giuliani then pulled her head onto his penis, without asking for or obtaining any form of consent. He held her by her hair. It became clear to Ms. Dunphy that there was no way out of giving him oral sex. She did so, against her will.”

    Giuliani often demanded that Dunphy work naked, in a bikini, or in short shorts with an American flag on them that he bought for her, the lawsuit said.

    “When they were apart, they would often work remotely via videoconference, and during those conferences Giuliani almost always asked her to remove her clothes on camera. He often called from his bed, where he was visibly touching himself under a white sheet,” the lawsuit said.

    https://abc7ny.com/rudy-giuliani-sexual-assault-harassment-wage-theft/13251048/

  15. There’s movement on the Housing front. Elsewhere:

    ‘Sadiq Khan is lobbying Labour colleagues to commit to rent freezes if they win power – a demand which has gone unheeded from the current Tory government.

    London’s mayor heralded a “big bang in an affordable housing revolution” as he announced that a record number of affordable homes are being built in the city.

    In a speech at a showcase new housing development, Khan said that a “record number” of 25,000 affordable homes had been started last year and that he had surpassed his 2015 promise to begin building 116,000 by 2023.

    The housing crisis in London was “turbo-charging inequalities in wealth, health and happiness”, he said.

    As mayor, I don’t want to see London become a playground for the rich – I’m determined to build a London for everyone.

    However, the issue of rental freezes is emerging as a point of debate within Labour, which has stopped short of backing what Khan and others are pushing for. The Scottish government announced a rent freeze for public and private properties last year after a similar proposal by Scottish Labour, to freeze rents for two years until rent controls are introduced in 2024, was voted down by SNP and Scottish Green MSPs.

    Speaking after his speech, Khan told reporters:

    As a Labour member, and Labour mayor I am are lobbying colleagues at the national policy forum and shadow cabinet to bring in policies in the manifesto to look at look at the issue of rent freezes.

    The reality is, even if we massively increase in supply of new homes in London and massively increase the supply of council homes in London and across the country, there will still be record numbers of people renting in the private sector and for those 2.7 million people in London we need to improve the protection for those renting.

    Sources close to Khan said he was not asking for rent controls nationally but for powers to have a rent controls commission in London where there are “exceptional issues” with sky high rents. This was in his 2021 mayoral election manifesto.’

    The Guardian

    So, is there a case to be made for variable control of rents in Australia in pockets of the country where rents are spiralling out of control? In some way, shape or form? Would that satisfy The Greens? Maybe establish a Rental Oversight Board or something that the ACCC could manage on behalf of Renters?

  16. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Paul Karp takes us through the latest Essential poll which finds Labor maintaining its large lead over the Coalition despite the budget failing to impress voters.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/may/16/guardian-essential-poll-labor-maintains-large-lead-over-coalition-despite-budget-failing-to-impress-voters
    Labor is facing a fierce internal push to reshape the party’s housing policies and limit negative gearing as three federal MPs also call for a comprehensive debate on ambitious housing proposals to take to the next election. Paul Sakkal and James Massola report that there is a move to rewrite Labor’s housing platform at the party’s national conference in Brisbane in August amid fears the party is ceding ground to the Greens among younger voters in capital city seats.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/five-lines-of-fluff-labor-insiders-want-housing-policy-shake-up-to-fight-off-greens-20230515-p5d8hp.html
    Troy Bramston reckons Jim Chalmers is on a mission to bury the Coalition as the better economic and budget managers.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/chalmers-on-a-mission-to-bury-the-coalition-as-better-economic-and-budget-managers-writes-troy-bramston/news-story/63b6dd7812efec54022e103c7d02531d?amp
    “Can we believe what Peter Dutton has to say in his budget response?”, asks Crispin Hull who reckons he might have cried wolf one too many times.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8195943/dutton-may-have-cried-wolf-once-too-many/?cs=14258
    Paul Bongiorno writes that cruel stereotypes won’t help a broken jobs market.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/2023/05/16/paul-bongiorno-albanese-dutton-jobs/
    John Kehoe writes that CEOs are saying engagement with Albanese government ministers has generally been better than under the Morrison government, despite some clashes over policy.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/the-big-surprise-for-ceos-under-labor-20230515-p5d8gl
    Business is keen to work with Labor, but industrial relations is a sticking point. There may soon be a major public campaign to have its message heard nationwide, writes Jennifer Hewett.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/business-takes-to-the-airwaves-to-oppose-the-government-s-ir-changes-20230515-p5d8gs
    While the recent Budget made a start, the visa integrity disaster left by the previous Coalition Government will take years for Labor to fix, argues Abul Rizvi in a stinging assessment.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/duttons-visa-mess-too-big-for-budget-to-fix,17515
    As she marks one year in the job, Australia’s foreign minister is determined to make a ‘clear statement of our priorities in the region’, writes Daniel Hurst.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/may/16/australia-diminished-penny-wongs-frenetic-mission-to-repair-regional-ties
    Stuart Robert will skip US President Joe Biden’s address to federal parliament and will not return to Canberra to deliver a farewell speech. There he goes, disrespecting the institution of parliament right to the very end. I hope the review into certain contract placements initiated by Bill Shorten bears fruit.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/stuart-robert-to-skip-biden-s-visit-to-canberra-will-not-return-to-parliament-20230512-p5d829.html
    Meanwhile, according to The Australian, Scott Morrison has been searching for a post-politics job but was disappointed when PwC, of all people, rebuffed his approach, saying that he would have brought an unacceptable level of reputational risk to the firm. Priceless!
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/margin-call/scott-morrisons-pwc-job-blow-after-talent-agent-rebuffed/news-story/b8c5e2bc558220c7a825fee3f4aa4a64?amp
    Criminal syndicates are pouring fake students into Australia to work in their illegal operations – including the sex industry – by exploiting the nation’s weak education visa and migration systems. Nick McKenzie and Michael Bachelard tell us that a scathing review by former Victorian police chief Christine Nixon has found migration linked to vocational education should be immediately reviewed and was so widely misused that it could warrant an overhaul of the working-visa system.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/fake-schools-fake-students-criminals-make-mockery-of-education-visas-20230419-p5d1mw.html
    Shane Wright explains how big income tax cuts could induce a much-needed major overall taxation review.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/why-the-teachings-of-yoda-should-be-applied-to-stage-three-tax-cuts-20230515-p5d8d1.html
    On paper, at least, the planning reforms reportedly being developed by the state government to help squeeze an extra one million homes into Melbourne’s established suburbs seem good policy, says the editorial in The Age which thinks the right kind of medium and high-density housing, implemented appropriately, can prove more of a blessing than a burden.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/housing-reforms-would-make-sense-if-implemented-with-caution-20230515-p5d8je.html
    As a geriatrician, Kate Gregorevic has treated hundreds of dementia patients at the end of their lives. She pleads that they deserve a choice on how to die.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/as-a-geriatrician-i-ve-treated-hundreds-of-dementia-patients-they-deserve-a-choice-20230511-p5d7qg.html
    The federal government will work with the oil and gas industry to expand carbon capture and storage, putting it on a collision course with the Greens, write Mike Foley and Nick Toscano.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/labor-wants-to-help-gas-giants-scale-up-carbon-capture-potential-20230515-p5d8iz.html
    Federal Resources Minister Madeleine King has emphatically backed carbon capture and storage as the best way for the resources industry to reach net zero emissions, but stopped short of reversing a freeze on project funding to accelerate the roll-out of the technology, reports Angela Macdonald-Smith.
    https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/carbon-capture-the-best-way-to-net-zero-but-subsidies-scarce-20230510-p5d7b0
    Securing a social licence to build transmission lines is the most pressing issue facing Australia’s energy transition, federal Energy Minister Chris Bowen has warned, as the head of the country’s state-owned green bank says the pace of new renewable energy developments is too slow to meet ambitious targets.
    https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/bowen-warns-social-licence-issue-is-urgent-as-cefc-sounds-alarm-20230515-p5d8ia
    Ben Potter tells us why a giant outback carbon reservoir may be key to the future of gas.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/why-a-giant-outback-carbon-reservoir-may-be-key-to-the-future-of-gas-20230425-p5d37e
    Yes, Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek approved a coal mine. But save the angst for decisions that matter more, declares John Quiggin.
    https://theconversation.com/yes-environment-minister-tanya-plibersek-approved-a-coal-mine-but-save-the-angst-for-decisions-that-matter-more-205561
    Elizabeth Knight tells us why the PwC scandal won’t die. She says the most staggering aspect to this scandal is that it appears no one inside PwC who was aware of what was going on stopped to consider the risks.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/torture-by-a-thousand-cuts-why-the-pwc-scandal-won-t-die-20230515-p5d8i2.html
    A gourmet meal delivery business founded by celebrity chef Shane Delia racked up debts of more than $6.3 million, including to thousands of customers owed almost $4.4 million in gift vouchers that will not be honoured. There’s a warning here – if you are given a gift voucher, spend it quickly!
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/shane-delia-s-gourmet-delivery-business-defaults-on-4-million-in-gift-cards-20230515-p5d8cy.html
    This year’s budget will not set school education alight. It contains too many harsh lights, some bright lights and certain very soft lights. Funding arrangements have endured in the budget that will mean the diminishment of government schools and the expansion of non-government schools, writes a concerned Jane Kenway.
    https://johnmenadue.com/is-that-all-there-is-a-bad-deal-for-government-schools/
    Angus Thompson reports that the barrister who acted for former Coalition staffer Bruce Lehrmann in his aborted trial said he didn’t know whether his client would be found not guilty due to the media storm surrounding the case and has criticised increasing references to complainants in sexual assault cases as “victims”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/convicted-in-the-media-lehrmann-s-barrister-doubted-acquittal-20230515-p5d8dr.html
    Tory Shepperd gives us more detail on yesterday’s proceedings at the inquiry.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/may/15/bruce-lehrmanns-lawyer-was-pissed-off-by-claims-senator-coached-questioning-of-brittany-higgins-inquiry-told
    The innocence of many childhoods has been prematurely ended by pornography’s pervasive online accessibility and there are growing calls for internet restrictions to protect young people from further harm, says the SMH editorial which calls for secure age verification which will inevitably incur pushback from civil libertarians and adults understandably worried about exposure of their viewing habits, but the normalisation of violent sex suggests many of our children need our help to see sex as feeling, respect and intimacy, not an image on a computer.
    https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/life-and-relationships/australia-it-s-time-to-debate-age-verification-for-porn-20230515-p5d8g3.html
    Taxpayers stump up for “man shot in buttocks” journalism as Google Australia pays a pittance in tax again thanks to “world first media reforms”. Michael West reports on a joke.
    https://michaelwest.com.au/google-australia-pays-pittance-in-tax-pays-media-moguls-instead/
    “Our hybrid media system has emboldened anti-LGBTQ+ hate – what can we do about it?”, asks Justin Ellis who says that anti-LGBTQ+ hate from religious conservatives and far-right extremists in the United States, and now in Australia, is a worrying trend.
    https://theconversation.com/our-hybrid-media-system-has-emboldened-anti-lgbtq-hate-what-can-we-do-about-it-205028
    Alarm bells are ringing in the vulnerable global financial system as things start to break. The multitrillion-dollar question is whether there is more to come, writes the ever-pessimistic Stephen Bartholomeusz.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/what-s-lurking-within-the-shadows-of-the-global-financial-system-20230515-p5d8df.html
    The US central bank’s rapid-fire rate rises, combined with the turmoil in US regional banks, is setting the stage for a credit crunch, writes Karen Maley.
    https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/how-the-fed-is-helping-to-fuel-a-vicious-credit-crunch-20230515-p5d8dd
    Anglicare has been urged to immediately review its response to allegations of sexual abuse after a royal commission found it failed to report a woman’s assault to police and did not undertake a proper investigation. The disability royal commission heard last April that Niky* – who lives with a developmental disability – was sexually assaulted by another person with a disability at an Anglicare respite centre in Queensland in 2018.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/may/16/anglicare-asked-to-review-procedures-after-royal-commission-finds-it-failed-to-report-sexual-assault
    Multiple events in the USA this month have dismayed, disturbed and disgusted the watching world, as Alan Austin reports.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/americas-humiliations-just-keep-piling-up,17514
    Trump’s ‘evil charisma’ menaces the US – and Australia, writes Matthew Knott who says that if Biden has to miss next week’s Quad summit, it will be a momentary disappointment for Albanese. A Trump victory in 2024 would be an almighty cataclysm. It’s happened before and can happen again.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-s-evil-charisma-menaces-the-us-and-australia-20230514-p5d89y.html
    “Tories preach baby-making and the facts of life – why does it always come back to sex with these oddballs?”, writes John Crace in his latest satirical contrinution.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/15/tories-preach-baby-making-and-the-facts-of-life-why-does-it-always-come-back-to-sex-with-these-oddballs
    Apparently, Prince Andrew is refusing to leave his Windsor home of 20 years despite the King’s demands. Yet another Royal Rumble!
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/prince-andrew-refuses-to-leave-windsor-home-despite-king-s-demands-20230515-p5d8co.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Pope

    Cathy Wilcox

    Matt Golding



    Mark David

    Fiona Katauskas

    A gif from Glen Le Lievre
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1657900669100240896
    A Mark Knight catch-up



    Leak

    From the US













  17. Thanks BK.

    John Kehoe writes that CEOs are saying engagement with Albanese government ministers has generally been better than under the Morrison government, despite some clashes over policy.

    Is anyone surprised by this? SfM was a one person ministry – literally! You can take that as read that he wasn’t interested in hearing from anyone else, he just wanted to do things his way all the time.

  18. C@t, you were thinking of Dandy’s cooler older bludger cousin.

    Doesn’t need to be slab heating. There are wall heaters with built in thermal mass ideal for off peak use and slow release. And with better insulated homes, any heating or cooling that you can move to off peak will be useful….. IF those off peak rates are tempting enough.

    We have been setting our dishwasher, HWS, washingmachine and hydronics to operate during low rates or middle of day solar. But our TOU power is so exe at night, we almost lose that benefit through costs of running cooking etc that isn’t easy to shift to other times. It doesn’t help that offpeak prices aren’t super low and the supply charge is higher.

    So I am questioning why bother with the effort. And checking around other retailers. And reconsidering giving a finger to the grid and buying a battery.

  19. TK,
    Yes you are cool. You live in the Adelaide Hills! 😉
    My thinking is that Energy Retailers are going to have to realise that most home owners will eventually get a battery and so they will be selling their product to the less well-off members of society and so price gauging will become a no go. Plus, they will be selling to a contracted, as in shrunken, market, and so their offering better be good or they will go the way of the Dodo. So I guess that’s why they are getting in for their chop now.

  20. so not a good look for penney wongs speech strongly defending the policy if it will be changed julian hill is very progresive

  21. The Age 16/05
    The emails also cast fresh doubt on the independence of Melbourne Water’s flood review, despite repeated insistence from the Andrews government to the contrary, with the water authority seeking approval from a government minister and the Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning before responding to questions from The Age in February.
    _____________________
    Well, well, well. It turns out the review was not independent.
    Who would have thought.


  22. Meanwhile, according to The Australian, Scott Morrison has been searching for a post-politics job but was disappointed when PwC, of all people, rebuffed his approach, saying that he would have brought an unacceptable level of reputational risk to the firm. Priceless!
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/margin-call/scott-morrisons-pwc-job-blow-after-talent-agent-rebuffed/news-story/b8c5e2bc558220c7a825fee3f4aa4a64?amp

    Indeed priceless!
    They already knew he was a shady operator. One shady operator says no another shady operator. What an irony.
    I thought there is unwritten rule between shady operators. You scratch my back and I yours.

  23. Taylormade says:
    Tuesday, May 16, 2023 at 8:06 am
    The Age 16/05
    The emails also cast fresh doubt on the independence of Melbourne Water’s flood review, despite repeated insistence from the Andrews government to the contrary, with the water authority seeking approval from a government minister and the Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning before responding to questions from The Age in February.
    _____________________
    Well, well, well. It turns out the review was not independent.
    Who would have thought.

    ———————————————–
    LOL Taylormade

  24. There was no visa integrity disaster under the Coalition.
    Anything that exploits workers is fine by them.
    It was not an integrity disaster.
    It was a design feature.

  25. C@t, I hate the idea of buying a battery. It is a resource we should be leaving for cars, it isn’t available to everyone and it shouldn’t be necessary. I love the grid. Well managed it should be a progressive commons.

    But yes. Everyone around here has a battery. It is a wealth status symbol (many subsidised!!!!!). How they tolerate me and my batteryless house and my faded Honda Jazz and my Milkman of Human Kindness Tshirt – I don’t know.

  26. C@tmomma @ Tuesday, May 16, 2023 at 7:11 am:
    =========

    C@tmomma, agreed about Putin’s plan. Ukraine needs and hopefully has a better one. In the meantime, every innocent Ukrainian civilian killed on Putin’s orders deserves witness. 😐

  27. C@tmomma says:
    Tuesday, May 16, 2023 at 6:43 am
    Also, I imagine Dandy Murray or Socrates may be able to answer this question…

    Why does South Korea have any right to object to Australia, where the minerals come from, developing an EV Battery manufacturing industry!?!
    Just because they have one already, doesn’t mean we can’t have one as well, surely!?!
    —————————

    One of the best cases of self-interest I’ve ever seen (yesterday). Clearly they’re concerned Australia has the potential to cut South Koreas grass on the issue of batteries IF we can actually do it. Their approach through the media yesterday was laughable, essentially, ‘don’t do it because we already do it’.

  28. USA! USA! USA!

    Multiple events in the USA this month have dismayed, disturbed and disgusted the watching world, as Alan Austin reports.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/americas-humiliations-just-keep-piling-up,17514

    From the article: This is one of eight scandals that have riveted the global community already this month. And we are only halfway through. All have been reported with consternation by the world’s media.

    Also
    “Our hybrid media system has emboldened anti-LGBTQ+ hate – what can we do about it?”, asks Justin Ellis who says that anti-LGBTQ+ hate from religious conservatives and far-right extremists in the United States, and now in Australia, is a worrying trend.
    https://theconversation.com/our-hybrid-media-system-has-emboldened-anti-lgbtq-hate-what-can-we-do-about-it-205028

  29. Dozens of people are missing and at least six people have been confirmed dead after a devastating fire tore through a New Zealand hostel.

    Swarms of emergency services crews rushed to the four-storey Loafers Lodge hostel on Adelaide Rd in the capital city of Wellington just before 12.30am local time (10pm AEST) on Tuesday morning.

  30. A former associate is suing Rudy Giuliani for sexual assault and harassment, wage theft, and other misconduct, accusing the former mayor and Trump lawyer of making “sexual demands” and going on “alcohol-drenched rants that included sexist, racist, and antisemitic remarks,” many of which were recorded.

    Noelle Dunphy said she began working for Giuliani in 2019 as his director of business development and her lawsuit said Giuliani “began abusing Ms. Dunphy almost immediately after she started working for” him.

    “He made clear that satisfying his sexual demands-which came virtually anytime, anywhere-was an absolute requirement of her employment and of his legal representation,” the lawsuit said.

    According to Dunphy, Giuliani promised her a $1 million annual salary but the offer came with a catch: Giuliani was in the midst of an acrimonious divorce, and he told Ms. Dunphy that her pay would have to be deferred and her employment kept “secret” until the divorce proceedings finished. He claimed that his “crazy” ex-wife and her lawyers were watching his cashflow, and that his ex-wife would “attack” and “retaliate” against any female employee that Giuliani hired, the lawsuit said. Part of the job required Dunphy to record her interactions with Giuliani “anytime, anywhere, as well as Giuliani’s interactions with others,” the lawsuit said.

  31. Morning all. Thanks BK for the roundup. On this:

    “ The federal government will work with the oil and gas industry to expand carbon capture and storage, putting it on a collision course with the Greens, write Mike Foley and Nick Toscano.”
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/labor-wants-to-help-gas-giants-scale-up-carbon-capture-potential-20230515-p5d8iz.html

    Looks like the climate wars aren’t over 🙂 Labor persists with the carbon capture lie 🙁

    Team Katich

    We have a home battery. There was an SA scheme to subsidise them if you made your home battery available to stabilise the local grid when needed. We did so. Home batteries can help the grid.


  32. Elizabeth Knight tells us why the PwC scandal won’t die. She says the most staggering aspect to this scandal is that it appears no one inside PwC who was aware of what was going on stopped to consider the risks.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/torture-by-a-thousand-cuts-why-the-pwc-scandal-won-t-die-20230515-p5d8i2.html

    Can someone clarify who initially blew the whistle on this scandal.
    Maybe PwC thought Morrison government will be re-elected and no one would be wiser.
    PwC got a staggering $500 worth of contracts just between 2020-2022 from Federal LNP government.

    Again I repeat that there is no outrage from the likes of nath, Lars, Rex, P1 on such kind of scandals.
    Lars, a consulting firm getting $500 million worth of contracts in less than 2 years is corruption IMO. What is the important advice that PwC can provide and Federal government employees cannot? Staggering!

  33. USA!

    The US central bank’s rapid-fire rate rises, combined with the turmoil in US regional banks, is setting the stage for a credit crunch, writes Karen Maley.
    https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/how-the-fed-is-helping-to-fuel-a-vicious-credit-crunch-20230515-p5d8dd

    The world should detach itself from US Dollar as world’s reserve currency. The world cannot afford another GFC.
    Countries are trying to do that by trying to link their monetary system with BRICS.

  34. RE: PWC

    I just cant get over their greed. They get 500 million in 2 years. They charge hundreds, if not thousands of dollars an hour for their services. They charge millions for reports that often aren’t even read.

    YET, that is not enough. They secretly need to use information to make even more money … just how greedy are they?

  35. US Debt Ceiling scandal


    Trump’s ‘evil charisma’ menaces the US – and Australia, writes Matthew Knott who says that if Biden has to miss next week’s Quad summit, it will be a momentary disappointment for Albanese. A Trump victory in 2024 would be an almighty cataclysm. It’s happened before and can happen again.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-s-evil-charisma-menaces-the-us-and-australia-20230514-p5d89y.html

    Is there a possibility that Biden won’t come for QUAD meeting and address Federal parliament?

  36. Ven @ #43 Tuesday, May 16th, 2023 – 8:53 am

    USA!

    The US central bank’s rapid-fire rate rises, combined with the turmoil in US regional banks, is setting the stage for a credit crunch, writes Karen Maley.
    https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/how-the-fed-is-helping-to-fuel-a-vicious-credit-crunch-20230515-p5d8dd

    The world should detach itself from US Dollar as world’s reserve currency. The world cannot afford another GFC.
    Countries are trying to do that by trying to link their monetary system with BRICS.

    The how is the hard part.

    According to some estimates the USD makes up 60% of global currency reserves, anywhere between $3t and $8t in actual notes and coins (wild that estimates are so varied). Some nations dont even use their own currency anymore as they’re so devalued and only trade in USD so their economies would tank. Having a baseline currency is also considered useful for all global trade to measure value against.

    What are the alternatives? Move to a different currency, same issues occur. Move to a world currency, lets just say a difficult thing to implement. BRICS, I guess its a way to diversify risk, but the countries that make up BRICS are, well just lets say problematic. The Euro would have to figure in there somewhere.

    What are your thoughts on the matter?

  37. Socrates says:
    Monday, May 15, 2023 at 8:07 pm
    I also saw people talking about electrification earlier.

    Further to some work I mentioned recently, I have been researching Norway’s path to switching to an EV fleet. They are well advanced, with over 85% of new cars sold being EVs in 2022 and over 20% of all cars on the road now being EVs. In 2012 it was less than 1% EVs.

    Going from 1% to 20% of cars being EVs has increased Norway’s total grid power consumption by +10%. Yet peak power consumption has only increased by +2%. So sensible charging rates by time has encouraged most people to charge their EV at non peak times of day when EVs are cheaper. (Note Norwegian average mileage is 12000 km/year/car, similar to Australia.)

    This is really significant for the economics of the switch. Norway has now saved 20% on its oil consumption bill. The generation system is sized on supplying peak energy, so there has been very little extra power generation infrastructure cost. The main cost has been grid upgrades to support widespread rollout of EV fast chargers.

    For power generators, EVs are a benefit. Increasing off-peak power consumption means selling more power that was otherwise surplus. This helps the economics of power generation. The cost of the grid upgrades is less than the cost of the oil consumption avoided.
    ————————————-

    Socrates

    Thanks for this post last night, nice info and update. I just know that maximising the use and management of our existing system will mean less transmission and generation than many thought initially. The minimal increase in power consumption by EVs too is very interesting.

  38. Thanks BK

    It’s hard not to be positive about the aggregate poll results in the current economic and social environment. I imagine the Liberals must quietly be looking around now for their next leader in light of Dutton’s inability to make any headway whatsoever against Albanese and the government. Let’s hope they choose from the likely intransigent cabal as expected.

  39. He’s sounding more and more like Morrison everyday…

    Greg Jericho
    @GrogsGamut
    ·
    3m
    Anthony Albanese yesterday on ABC Melbourne:

    “some of what has been lost is Stage Three does begin to kick in at $45,000.”

    “kick in” doing A LOT of heavy lifting there

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