Essential Research and Resolve Strategic offer further numbers on budget polling, both tending to support Newspoll’s impression of a lukewarm response to the budget, and one — or possibly two, with Resolve Strategic to be confirmed — also supporting its finding of no discernible impact on voting intention.
What we have so far from Essential Research is a report in The Guardian relating that its 2PP+ measure of voting intention has Labor steady on 53% and the Coalition up one to 42%, with the remainder undecided; Anthony Albanese up three on approval to 54% and down two on disapproval to 35%; and Peter Dutton steady on approval at 36% and up one on disapproval to 45%. For primary votes will have to wait for the pollster’s publication of its full results later today.
The poll found 24% expecting the government would be good for them personally, which presumably had a corresponding result for bad that will also have to wait for the full report. Only limited numbers felt it would create jobs (33%), reduce debt (29%), reduce cost-of-living pressures (26%), whereas 46% felt it would “create long-term problems that will need to be fixed in the future”. Respondents were most likely to rate that the budget would be good for people receiving government payments and least likely to younger Australians and “average working people”.
There was also a forced response questions on the Indigenous Voice and a republic, the former finding the margin from yes in to 59-41 from 60-40 a month ago, with small state sub-samples finding recording big leads in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia, but an even balance in Queensland and Western Australia. The republic question, which apparently left the devil undetailed, broke 54-46 in favour. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1080.
The Resolve Strategic poll in the Age/Herald, which will presumably follow up with voting intention results fairly short, seemingly produced the most favourable results for the budget, with 31% saying it would be good for them and their household compared with 26% for bad; 44% good for the country with 17% for bad; 36% good for the health of the economy with 15% for bad; and 39% good for “rebuilding a healthy budget” with 17% for bad. Similarly to Essential Research, it found respondents were most likely to see the budget as good for the less fortunate and disadvantaged, with 56% for good and 14% for poor, but it substantially more positive results for both older people (48% good and 17% bad) and younger people (39% and 17%).
Respondents were asked about twelve specific items in the budget, finding majority support for all but two: limiting growth in NDIS spending to 8% a year, which still recorded a net positive result with 37% in favour and 17% opposed, and facilities for the Brisbane Olympics and Tasmanian AFL, which were supported by 27% and opposed by 37%. The most popular measure was the spending on Medicare to encourage bulk billing, at 81% in favour and 5% opposed, with funding for a wage increase for aged care workers, energy bill relief and doubling of medicine prescription periods recording between 73% and 75% support. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1610.
UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research voting intention numbers are here and the full report here. The former’s primary votes are very strong for Labor, suggesting the static 2PP+ numbers relied on a change in respondent-allocated preferences: Labor are up two 35%, the Coalition are down one to 31%, the Greens are steady on 14%, One Nation are steady on 5% and the United Australia Party is down one to 1%. Further, the report allows comparison of the budget response with five budgets going back to 2020, which makes the numbers look better than at first blush. Twenty-four per cent for “good for you personally” is about par for the course; the 41% and 37% for “good for people on lower incomes” and “good for older Australians” are comfortably the strongest results out of five budgets going back to 2020; 46% for “place unnecessary burdens on future generations” is the best result of the five.
C@tmomma says:
Wednesday, May 17, 2023 at 2:25 pm
Upnorth,
I’d also consider a representation to the Minister for Immigration, Andrew Giles:
https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/help-and-support/departmental-forms/online-forms/contact-the-minister#:~:text=The%20Hon%20Andrew%20Giles%20MP,Immigration%2C%20Citizenship%20and%20Multicultural%20Affairs
Maybe Richard Marles, the DPM and Minister for Defence:
https://www.aph.gov.au/Senators_and_Members/Parliamentarian
I’d go for the full court press.
中华人民共和国
Thanks C@t. I will try Julian Hill first as the sponsor doesn’t have a car and I think needs to meet an Electorate Officer with Paperwork to get this moving. But when I ring Julian’s office I will make the suggestion. Thanks again and looking forward to drinks and eats and chats Sunday!
PS is it cold there. Like below 25? If so I better pack a jacket and shoes. Undies are a defo.
According to the Guardian, the QUAD leaders will meet at the G7 (which Biden is currently planning to attend).
So absolutely no snub to Australia. Anyway, it just shows how obnoxious are the Republicans in Congress.
I understand Madeline King was saying to the fossil fuel industry, in effect, if you want to do CCS – fill your boots.
But we are going to introduce regulations and standards on how you do it (just in case you thought you could be cowboys and scam the emission accounting regime).
Oh, and by the way, we are not subsidising this one cent.
PS is it cold there. Like below 25? If so I better pack a jacket and shoes. Undies are a defo.
Max 17 today in Old Sydney Town. 😀
Looking forward to Sunday. You’ll be the one shivering, no doubt. 😀
6-19 on Sunday. 🙂
C@tmomma says:
Wednesday, May 17, 2023 at 2:57 pm
PS is it cold there. Like below 25? If so I better pack a jacket and shoes. Undies are a defo.
Max 17 today in Old Sydney Town.
Looking forward to Sunday. You’ll be the one shivering, no doubt.
中华人民共和国
A wee dram will fix that
Upnorth says:
Wednesday, May 17, 2023 at 2:38 pm
PS is it cold there. Like below 25? If so I better pack a jacket and shoes. Undies are a defo.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Get yourself a puffer jacket.
Everyone all ages appear to be wearing them in Melbourne. I have 5.
A bit like when trackies hit the scene 50 years ago.
C@t
Very pleased to see that Elsevier story.
Been a long time coming from the viewpoint of an academic librarian
BRICS: 10 Asian Countries Agree to Ditch The U.S. Dollar
https://watcher.guru/news/brics-10-asian-countries-agree-ditch-u-s-dollar
”
Ashasays:
Wednesday, May 17, 2023 at 1:48 pm
Biden has made the reasonable decision to cancel his overseas trip to focus on pressing domestic decision. Albo has made the reasonable decision to cancel the Quad meeting on account of 1/4 of its members being unable to attend. What’s the big deal? It’s not like it can’t be rescheduled.
”
Asha
But Biden is going now (i.e. Tuesday US time) to attend G7 meeting and will return to USA by weekend to participate further in Debt ceiling talks.
It shows where his priorities are.
Guardian Ukraine war podcast
https://www.theguardian.com/world/audio/2023/may/17/has-ukraines-spring-offensive-begun-podcast
Torchbearer says:
Wednesday, May 17, 2023 at 1:44 pm
Q: How embarrassing.
Not for Albo….I am pretty sure 99 percent of Australians didnt even know Biden was coming, and care even less.
————————-
A non-event to the average Australian and a frustration to those in the city placed in lockdown.
Arky says:
Wednesday, May 17, 2023 at 1:51 pm
If Australia had a domestic emergency, Albo would stay home rather than go see Biden …..
———————-
But if you’re Morrison you would go on holiday to Hawaii.
Dr John says:
Wednesday, May 17, 2023 at 3:10 pm
Upnorth says:
Wednesday, May 17, 2023 at 2:38 pm
PS is it cold there. Like below 25? If so I better pack a jacket and shoes. Undies are a defo.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Get yourself a puffer jacket.
Everyone all ages appear to be wearing them in Melbourne. I have 5.
A bit like when trackies hit the scene 50 years ago.
中华人民共和国
I’ve got my Mongolian winter gear but I think it’s a bit OTT. I’m quite Puffy as it is but thanks Dr J for the sartorial advice!
Dr John,
I saw a pair of moccasins on a Melbournian the other day! I thought that they had died out with the Sharpies and the Skinheads. 😆
“Get yourself a puffer jacket.
Everyone all ages appear to be wearing them in Melbourne. I have 5.”
Like this?
Q: Didn’t I read that the federal budget paused the airport link funding because the Vic state government asked them to?
There’s politics going on here, and Andrews needing to find ways to cut spending and keep the costs down on the suburban rail loop.
About 2 weeks ago Andrews made it clear the 12-18 month delay is being caused by pig-headiness of the Airport operator over the route and access across Airport land, and they were being hugely obstructive.
Cronus: “But if you’re Morrison you would go on holiday to Hawaii.”
And then lie about it.
Yep, the US is totally stuffed, especially corporate, media and political America.
“Bob Carr@bobjcarr
Prepare for Biden’s next term when frailty and cognitive decline may prevent president’s attendances at any forums leaving things to the unsteady hand of Harris. Republican base is loyal to Trump and beyond 2024 partial to any heir of Trump:”
Torchbearer @ #669 Wednesday, May 17th, 2023 – 4:07 pm
Vic Labor were covering for Fed Labor. Not anymore, apparently.
Ven
But Biden is going now (i.e. Tuesday US time) to attend G7 meeting and will return to USA by weekend to participate further in Debt ceiling talks.
It shows where his priorities are.
It does, yes. The G7 meeting (in which the Ukraine war will be front-and-centre) and the US debt ceiling are both higher priorities for Biden than the Quad.
If this is surprising to anyone, then it should not be.
Taylormade @ #237 Wednesday, May 17th, 2023 – 1:35 pm
C@tmomma says:
Wednesday, May 17, 2023 at 3:51 pm
Dr John,
I saw a pair of moccasins on a Melbournian the other day! I thought that they had died out with the Sharpies and the Skinheads.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Anything goes apparently.
eg, ‘Elite’ Brighton Grammar students sport mullets and wear uniform hoodies at times.
And Fairfax has had this bogan Brighton story up on line for 10 days now ha ha –
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/brighton-darling-why-my-suburb-is-a-secret-bogan-hotspot-20230503-p5d57s.html
Dr John
I know plenty of people who grew up in Brighton and quite a few are bogans, it’s just they have rich parents.
Can someone please explain to me why either Ukraine specifically, or the international community more broader, has an obligation to concede anything at all to Russia in order to compel them to do adhere to the following:
“… not to undertake any attacks against merchant vessels and other civilian vessels and port facilities [used by Ukraine to export grain].”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/may/17/russia-ukraine-war-live-last-ship-to-leave-ukraine-under-current-grain-deal-jets-pledge-a-good-start-says-zelenskiy
Why should Russia be granted anything at all, merely to get them to adhere to prohibitions which they should be adhering to under international and maritime law anyway? As long as Russia refrains from the above-quoted actions, there is no need for any further guarantees by any party to anyone else, for Ukrainian grain shipments to move unhindered across the Black Sea to its intended markets.
Anything else being granted to Russia to get them to behave like a normal law-abiding country merely rewards illegal aggression. The deal should be this:
“Adhere to the above, or the military assets you use to violate the above will be targeted and destroyed.”
The mere fact that this, most obvious, answer to the problem of ‘grain shipment security’ in the Black Sea seems to be out of the question, just goes to show how limp-wristed the UN and NATO have been so far in opposing Moscow’s violent, unjustified and illegal aggression against Ukraine.
Xi Jinping’s regime shows, for the gazillionth time, yet another way they blatantly disregard diplomatic norms and free expression:
“China has notified several foreign missions in Beijing not to display “politicised propaganda” on their buildings, diplomats told Reuters, adding the request appeared aimed at Ukrainian flags they have displayed since Russia’s invasion…
… The diplomat [The Guardian’s source for this report] said the mission did not intend to comply with the notification.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/may/17/russia-ukraine-war-live-last-ship-to-leave-ukraine-under-current-grain-deal-jets-pledge-a-good-start-says-zelenskiy
LOL Xi! Way to go proving yourself to be both a paper tiger AND hostile, both at once.
Shogun @ Wednesday, May 17, 2023 at 4:20 pm:
“The G7 meeting (in which the Ukraine war will be front-and-centre) and the US debt ceiling are both higher priorities for Biden than the Quad.
If this is surprising to anyone, then it should not be.”
=================
+1
The travails of being a landlord: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/may/17/think-its-tough-being-a-renter-hardly-landlords-are-voiceless?utm_term=646473b863c6efd2c78b8ee178cc3491&utm_campaign=FirstDogOnTheMoon&utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&CMP=firstdog_email
A grim milestone passed for the tragically mis-deployed Russian armed forces:
Russians KIA May 16: 610 (150 scaled to US estimate)
Total Russians KIA: 200,590 (50,145 scaled to US estimate)
Daily average Russians KIA: 448.7 (112.2 scaled to US estimate)
Source: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/05/17/7402549/
The first 100,000 Russians KIA took 302 days (24/02/2022 to 22/12/2022), for an average of about 331 KIA per day.
This second 100,000 Russians KIA has taken less than half that time: just 145 days, for an average of about 690 KIA per day.
This trend is most definitely not Moscow’s friend.
Slava Ukraïni! Heroiam slava!
does julian hill want to be tackin seriously or like pine or dastyari basickly the parliaments residentpolitician to laugh at then we have michaelia cash who i dont think any body ttakes serously hill was a former burocrat in victoria
how ever suprised naf does not know hill is chair of the house select commity in the the job active imploymment systemm
From wiki:
‘…
Hill has spoken of being raised by his mother, after the death of his father, a medical doctor, when he was 4-years-old.[8] He has described how his mother, a nurse and midwife by profession, instilled in him the values of “responsibility, hard work and compassion.”[9] Hill spoke in Parliament, during National Palliative Care Week, about “the enormous privilege and authentic human experience” he had nursing his mother at home for the 10 months before her death, after she was diagnosed with an incurable cancer in 2008.[10][11]
Hill campaigned for amendment to Australian prescription drug laws following an incident in 2017 which left his daughter Elanor with a 64 cm blood clot after she was prescribed the oral contraceptive, Diane-35, to use as an acne medication, which is not approved by the Therapeutic Goods Administration.[12]
Hill’s brother and only sibling was the actor and independent filmmaker Damian Hill, best known for writing and acting in the 2016 film Pawno.[13] Damian died on 22 September 2018.[14] Julian Hill presented the inaugural Damian Hill Independent Film Award, named in honor of his brother, at the 2019 Melbourne International Film Festival.[15] Hill is gay, and has spoken of two former long-term partners, Lorien and David.
…’
RP
I know plenty of people who grew up in Brighton and quite a few are bogans, it’s just they have rich parents.
This particular demographic is sometimes referred to as “CUBs” (cashed-up bogans). They are prevalent in Sydney’s Sutherland Shire – ScoMo’s home turf.
Approach a CUB with caution, if you are a Labor or Greens supporter.
Is there any ethical boundary the “No” campaign will not cross?
It’s hard to know what to be most sickened by in the “No” campaign’s unethical use of a Millwarparra man’s likeness. There is the initial misidentification of Stewart Lingiari as “Vincent Lingiari’s grandson” despite the fact that, as RMIT’s FactLab uncovered, he is not related to the celebrated land rights activist. “If they had asked me directly, I would have told them I’m not his grandson but they never asked me,” he told Guardian Australia, adding that he felt “humiliated” by the episode
https://www.themonthly.com.au/the-politics/rachel-withers/2023/05/17/new-low
@EA: “Can someone please explain to me why either Ukraine specifically, or the international community more broader, has an obligation to concede anything at all to Russia in order to compel them to do adhere to the following:”
Nobody has any such obligation Any concessions to Russia are out of pragmatism not because Russia is entitled to so much as a brass razoo.
RP says:
Wednesday, May 17, 2023 at 4:28 pm
Dr John
I know plenty of people who grew up in Brighton and quite a few are bogans, it’s just they have rich parents.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Yes RP (it’s not Richard Porter?) but I think The Age also maybe emphasised ‘blow in’s).
Enough Already
“The first 100,000 Russians KIA took 302 days (24/02/2022 to 22/12/2022), for an average of about 331 KIA per day.
This second 100,000 Russians KIA has taken less than half that time: just 145 days, for an average of about 690 KIA per day.”
This is a shocking statistic, when you consider the heavy casualties Russian elite units suffered in the failed attempt to capture Kyiv in the early stages of the war. Things have actually gotten worse since.
Arky @ Wednesday, May 17, 2023 at 4:58 pm:
“@EA: “Can someone please explain to me why either Ukraine specifically, or the international community more broader, has an obligation to concede anything at all to Russia in order to compel them to do adhere to the following:”
———-
Nobody has any such obligation Any concessions to Russia are out of pragmatism not because Russia is entitled to so much as a brass razoo.”
========
Arky, as I thought. The UN/the ‘West’ can’t/won’t enforce international law when it is egregiously broken by a nuclear-armed power, so said power must be effectively bribed to keep to the most basic of laws. In this case, refraining from sinking civilian merchant vessels carrying food for the some of the neediest places on Earth.
Ironically Bob Carr used to be seen as Washington’s man in Australia. I guess when Huang Xiangmo ALLEGEDLY bought him he really ALLEGEDLY bought him, because playing the “cognitive decline” meme on Biden, so beloved of Republican twitter warriors, is a low blow intended only to harm his old friends the US, to the benefit of his new friends in China.
Something I learnt: Republican governors like DeSantis are wording their draconian and discriminatory legislation in deliberately vague language to create confusion as to what is covered and make the laws difficult to challenge.
“Can someone please explain to me why either Ukraine specifically, or the international community more broader, has an obligation to concede anything at all to Russia in order to compel them to do adhere to the following:”
There is no obligation, the only international order we have is might is right, so the calculus for Ukraine is when if ever they get sick of losing lives in the war and whether there is some part of Ukraine they’d give to Russia in order to save lives. For the rest of the world it is a balance between the value they extract from the ongoing carnage of lives and territory in Ukraine and the costs of weapons and sanctions.
From a US point of view they’d be very happy to watch Russian casualties grow and would probably be keen to see Fiona Hill’s concern of it turning into a 10 year war like Iraq / Iran realised, well at least until the war grows unpopular in the US.
@EA: The UN’s impotence by design in dealing with the permanent members of the Security Council is not some new discovery, it made the UN a nothing-burger for the entire Cold War. They got to stick their head up above the parapet in the 90s while there was no serious conflict between the US, China and Russia and flashpoints in the former Yugoslavia, Rwanda and so forth didn’t cause dissent, but now they’re well and truly out of the running, yes.
As for the West – unless you are suggesting the West should just initiate nuclear exchanges with Russia, the West is doing what it can, probably better than most of us thought would happen back in early 2022. There’s no magic button to push to make Russia stop, much as we’d all like it.
Socrates @ Wednesday, May 17, 2023 at 5:02 pm:
“The first 100,000 Russians KIA took 302 days (24/02/2022 to 22/12/2022), for an average of about 331 KIA per day.
This second 100,000 Russians KIA has taken less than half that time: just 145 days, for an average of about 690 KIA per day.”
This is a shocking statistic, when you consider the heavy casualties Russian elite units suffered in the failed attempt to capture Kyiv in the early stages of the war. Things have actually gotten worse since.
==============
Moscow’s April 2022 abandonment of the attempt to take Kyiv was an exercise in cutting losses, whereas Prigozhin’s ten-month persistence with the Bakhmut ‘meat grinder’ was an exercise in reinforcing failure. The casualty difference is not surprising.
Enough Already says:
Wednesday, May 17, 2023 at 4:42 pm
A grim milestone passed for the tragically mis-deployed Russian armed forces:
———————————-
The military term for this is reinforcing failure.
Snap
While Russia is the massive loser, China is the massive winner of Ukraine war, every day it drags on is a most excellent day for the Chinese National interest. Like for the US the longer the war goes on the better and better for China and building soft power across the globe.
Arky @ Wednesday, May 17, 2023 at 5:12 pm:
“As for the West – unless you are suggesting the West should just initiate nuclear exchanges with Russia, the West is doing what it can, probably better than most of us thought would happen back in early 2022. There’s no magic button to push to make Russia stop, much as we’d all like it.”
===============
In my view, Russian nuclear sabre-rattling about a nuclear first strike is an empty threat. They must see it that way themselves, because they have fired missiles at NATO patrol aircraft and brought down NATO drones operating perfectly legally in international airspace above the Black Sea, apparently with full confidence that NATO will not first-strike them in retaliation for that. Besides, the US has made it crystal clear to Moscow publicly that any first use of nukes will result in the complete destruction of the Russian Armed Forces deployed in and around Ukraine, which basically means almost all of it. No, Moscow will not use nukes, unless their own heartland is invaded and Moscow itself is threatened.
Thanks for the help Bludgers. Julian Hill’s Office were great. Emailed them all the information and I hope for the family sake he can help. Really appreciate the assistance.
Thanks for the help Bludgers. Julian Hill’s Office were great. Emailed them all the information and I hope for the family sake he can help. Really appreciate the assistance.
Sorry. It posted twice I was so appreciative!!
Arky:
Hard to disagree with that.
Disappointing to see him joining the Kamala Harris pile-on too.