‘Tis the season to be silly, but there is at least the following to relate:
• Roy Morgan published an SMS poll a fortnight ago that found 53% would vote yes in a referendum on an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander voice to parliament, with 30% for no and 17% for undecided. A yes majority was recorded in five of six states, the exception being Queensland with 44% for yes and 38% for no. The poll was conducted December 9 to 12 from a sample of 1499.
• The Age/Herald reported last Wednesday on a quarterly analysis of Resolve Strategic polling, though since the pollster provides breakdowns for the three largest states with each poll result, this was less illuminating than the similar exercise performed for Newspoll. However, it did provide results for Western Australia, showing Labor up a point from its strong performance at the election to 38% and the Coalition down a further five to 30%.
• Calare MP Andrew Gee has quit the Nationals to sit as an independent over the party leadership’s opposition to an indigenous voice to parliament. This reduces the Coalition to 57 seats in the House of Representatives and increases the cross bench from 16 to 17, with Labor still on 77.
• A by-election looms for the Northern Territory seat of Arafura, which covers the Tiwi Islands along with mainland territory around West Arnhem, following the death last month of Lawrence Costa, the Labor member since 2016. A defeat would not imperil Natasha Fyles’ government, with Labor holding 14 out of the Legislative Assembly’s 25 seats, not including Blain MP Mark Turner who was expelled from caucus in February 2021.
• The Narracan supplementary election will be held on January 28, finally bringing resolution to the Victorian state election. The election for the seat was not conducted on November 26 after Nationals candidate Shaun Gilchrist died in the period between the close of nominations and election day.
• The Victorian Election Commission has announced it will conduct full preference counts through to the final counts in February, having previously only conducted the counts to the point needed to determine the winning candidate.
Xi Jinping is only 69 so I think it likely he’s not going anywhere soon.
Boerwar at 2.56 pm
Yes, that conclusion is obvious, even in the Greens party room. Please read this:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/i-will-not-be-campaigning-no-thorpe-rejects-campaign-against-the-voice-20221011-p5bove.html
No one can tell what the future holds, so I’m not game to say whether America will eventually withdraw its forces from the western Pacific or not.
But I doubt it. Since World War II, Washington has been eager to manage world affairs in its interests as far as it can.
Of course, America has also wanted to avoid another major global conflict, but it is not about to give up its global interests. Essentially leaving the western Pacific to Chinese influence would significantly weaken America.
The same would happen in regards to Europe, if it abandoned NATO and left European states to fend for themselves against a resurgent Russia.
That is why I am cautiously optimistic that the world will not forget Ukraine and allow Russian forces to slowly overwhelm it, as Vlad the Impaler no doubt hopes will happen.
Some elements of the American right, ably represented by Donald Trump, extremist Republican politicians and Fox News, seem to hanker for a return to the days of isolationism, when America only cared about its immediate neighbourhood and was content to allow other regional powers manage theirs, in any way they saw fit.
But I believe our world is now too inter-connected to allow for that. It’s also why I believe predictions about America’s decline and retreat are a tad premature.
Steve777 @ #151 Monday, January 2nd, 2023 – 3:00 pm
You mean 70 in June? 😉
Also, you’re making a heroic assumption, as anyone does who discusses the global gerontocracy, that whoever it is will live into their 90s at least and never be subject to the exigencies of old age as the rest of us are. Alzheimers, for example, can come to anyone, no matter how intelligent or powerful they may be.
Dr D
‘I will not be campaigning No’: Thorpe rejects campaign against the Voice.
Well, whack someone with a limp lettuce. This is existential stuff for Indigenous First Nations.
Thorpe is ducking and weaving. The real question is whether the Greens will fully use all their vaunted ground game and advocacy skills to campaign for Yes.
Thorpe needs to shout ‘Yes for Yes!’ instead ‘No for No!’
Exactly, Sir Henry Parkes @ 3.03pm. It’s naïve to speculate otherwise.
https://youtu.be/iW72aIbSe10
” Also, you’re making a heroic assumption, as anyone does who discusses the global gerontocracy, that whoever it is will live into their 90s at least and never be subject to the exigencies of old age as the rest of us are. Alzheimers, for example, can come to anyone, no matter how intelligent or powerful they may be.”
Of course he’s subject to the exigencies of life and ageing like everyone else. The Soviet union lost two leaders in two years before they settled on Gorbachov, one of whom (Andropov) was about the same age as Xi. However, the odds are probably in his favour. The life expectancy of a 69 year old male in a developed country is about 15 years. That would certainly apply to China’s elites. Xi is seems to be a man of moderate habits, someone not given to anxiety, self doubt or stressing out over stuff, who has China’s top medical care on tap. People like him don’t retire, quite the contrary he’ll likely try to hang on long after he should have retired.
But we’ll see. Or maybe not. He’s younger than me.
15-20 for this while unlicensed, failure to stop, on parole etc
https://www.smh.com.au/national/queensland/bronco-s-mum-to-be-charged-after-fiery-crash-killed-three-20230102-p5c9vf.html
“ Xi is seems to be a man of moderate…”
Plus no signs of any greying
A touch of Grecian 2000 can do wonders…
Thanks Dr Doolittle for that detailed response but on the point of the low turnout might reflect that each indigenous tribal community might be better to send their already chosen community leader.
The Rio situation was appalling and making it worst most of the executive team were not based here but in Britain not that is an excuse because they are much tighter on protecting historical sights. I don’t think Rio were even punished for Juukan Gorde when they should have been stripped of their mining lease for that area.
So weird sending Jones and Deves to ‘fix’ SA liberals- Jones and his ilk are not big here, SA does its politics on a much politer and centrist level. When Marshall tried a couple of IPA tricks (esp privatising transport) it was the end of him.
I put it down to less rivers of cash you see in SYD/MEL/BRIS, especially in real estate, which distorts and corrupts everything.
A fascinating discussion with David Frum:
https://youtu.be/0d2CybvX3Tg
A brilliant woman. .
How a Nobel-Prize Winner Fought Her Family, Nazis, and Bombs to Change our Understanding of Cells Forever
https://leaps.org/how-a-nobel-prize-winner-fought-her-family-nazis-and-bombs-to-change-our-understanding-of-cells-forever/
Boerwar,
May I copy and use your list of the ALP government′s achievements for women, please?
Costello media attempting to create a problem where there is none. Airports with high numbers of transit passengers (e.g. HK, Singapore) have very secure procedures to ensure that people in transit between connecting flights are isolated from anyone else in the airport.
Some years ago China sought to boost international patronage on Chinese airlines by introducing visa free stopovers of 72-144 hours for passengers travelling between two countries via Chinese cities. Clearly people on this sort of stopover are potentially exposed to Covid and should be required to test negative before boarding a plane leaving China.
I haven’t read the whole article but Ms Bourke seems to be presenting this as a uniquely Australian problem (and therefore a bad decision by Albo!). Governments in Japan, US, UK, France etc would be dealing with the same issues.
Excellent and valued contribution Andrew_Earlwood.
I have long been worried about what seemed to be the inexorable march towards a decline in our relationship with China and the heightened likelihood that we would be dragged into a war well beyond our means and interests.
Sadly there are many, if not the majority, in our elites and bureaucracy who can see no other way than USA all the way. And also very sadly c@t as a senior Labor powerbroker seems to fit into that mould. But there is hope that more sensible voices will grow and crowd out what is current orthodoxy by some powerbrokers like c@t.
Perhaps the real work lies in actually reformation of the bureaucracy to have them think of a world outside blind American servitude which is not in our nations long term interests despite the fear of being ‘alone’ in a big bad world whatever that means.
Citizen. Latika Bourke will do anything to jazz up anti china or china scepticism. I wont click the link but is she quoting her favourite cos player James Patterson, ASPI or her british hunk Duncan Smith?
I think her main aim this time (or that of Costello) is to insinuate that the Albanese government is incompetent and creating problems for business and the Australian economy.
‘Puff, The Magic Dragon says:
Monday, January 2, 2023 at 4:07 pm
Boerwar,
May I copy and use your list of the ALP government′s achievements for women, please?’
——————————
Please do. It makes me proud to be a Labor supporter.
Emergency services in Queensland are responding to a collision between two helicopters near Sea World, at Main Beach on the Gold Coast.
The collision occurred at 1.59pm local time (2.59pm AEDT), according to the Queensland Ambulance Service, whose crews are at the scene.
There are fears that as many as three people may have died in the incident. The ambulance service said 13 people were being assessed at the scene.
The public has been urged to avoid the area, and Sea World Drive has been closed to traffic.
Hot goss?
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202301/1283030.shtml
Stupor to the rescue?
https://english.pravda.ru/science/153260-stupor/
Boerwar @ #171 Monday, January 2nd, 2023 – 4:29 pm
Obviously doesn’t include women living in poverty who’ve been left behind.
It’s interesting to see Latika Bourke pop back up in the Australian media after Labor were elected. 😐
Q: The life expectancy of a 69 year old male in a developed country is about 15 years
Recently the average life expectancy in China overtook the USA, however COVID may even things up again.
T
China life expectancy data?
GIGO.
Q: China life expectancy data?
Yes, there is that! But China did report 1 COVID death yesterday, up from zero the day before!
But with USA’s gun deaths, hospital system, disadvantage etc……it may not be that hard to overtake them on the life expectancy metric.
Holdenhillbily
Sad and tragic incident. The weather seemed okay. How they managed to collide is terrible.
I liked this story.
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2023/jan/02/one-house-two-people-and-some-rare-flightless-birds-welcome-to-mana-island
i dont think any body on this forum is high up in the labor or liberal party if the government wanted to have a better foreign policy will have to wait until 2025 but former Abbott national security advisor Andrew Shearer is our top sbby as head offf ofice of national inteligents
How ever im not hopeful in stead off appointing labor alind picks on the aspi board like used to happin labor kept stephin conroy and appointed Duttons captains picks including john anderson who would no as much abut defence as any other cabenit minister never served in a national security role to use morrisons language and kept marise paynes chief off staff justin bassi as aspi director in stead of sacking him desbite basi being a dutton captains pick
Bork must not be able to get a interview with peter khalil the chair of parliaments inteligents comity or the deputy chair our worst speaker andrew wallace so has to interview corear politican and i p a ofical james paterson who prior to entering parliament had no national security back ground worked as advisor to fifield and hardly mentiond security in his first speech in stead focusing on culture wars including attacking abc
you would think marles would have the curige to appoint some labor people to aspis bord they would have a similar view on china to the liberals like maybi anthony byrne how ever even though hewas close to mckenzi and the anti china crowd after admitting to branch stacking he disapeared after he retired from parliament
marles is probaly the worstcabenit member could not even be bothered dis missing the terible adf leadership under Angus campbell re appointing him and failed to sack shearer and basi
Aaron newton,
I believe that the FPLP government will replace Coalition appointees when appropriate. You have to admit though, getting rid of the Administrative Appeals Tribunal was a gutsy move by the government.
https://twitter.com/TomRed43/status/1609797804414885888/photo/1
was marles forced to appoint duttons picks to aspi bord as itmaybi dutton managed to sign contracts aspi is basickly a defence department ran think tank at least Beazley replafces brendon nellson as war memorial chair and abbotts term ends this year shearer has until 2025 as the pms chief security advisor former nat security advisor to howard and abbot
“During Russia’s New Year special on state TV, they openly addressed the West to say, “Like it or not, Russia is enlarging!” The rest of the clip should give you a general idea as to the mood in the studio.”
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1609719192596381696?s=20
Holdenhillbilly @ #189 Monday, January 2nd, 2023 – 5:31 pm
#like
Marles bad?
But what about the SDA?
Not sure anyone is expecting Marles to tidy up the Defence fustercluck anytime soon. 😆
Shame. Was firing for the Vics of late.
What about the SDA indeed.
Now that they have lost the SSM debate and the euthanasia debate, I guess their last stand is drug law reform.
But without the fig leaf of ideology they are really just a Catholic patronage network based off kids at Maccas and KFC.
Speaking of appointments, Tony Bourke elevated Adam Hatcher to President of the FWC, but only on an acting basis for a three month term in November. Long presumed to be the heir apparent, will Adam end up missing out on the permanent gig due to Bourke seeking a ‘legacy appointment’? If so, look for a woman – drawn from outside the current FWC stable of Commissioners and DPs. I have no idea who that may be thou.
Veteran broadcaster Alan Jones’ luxury garage sale
A Bentley Continental, an empty bottle of Bollinger, sporting memorabilia and artworks are among 600 items up for grabs following the $17.5m sale of his NSW home.
I bid $100 for the London public convenience summons
Andrew_Earlwood. Given that FWC didnt go the way of the AAT you would have to think that Bourke would even up some of the appointments so an external appointment given the past performance and stacking of the tribunal would appear sensible?
Alan Jones has hooked up with Katherine Deves to advise the South Australian Liberal Party on policy
What could possibly go wrong?