‘Tis the season to be silly, but there is at least the following to relate:
• Roy Morgan published an SMS poll a fortnight ago that found 53% would vote yes in a referendum on an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander voice to parliament, with 30% for no and 17% for undecided. A yes majority was recorded in five of six states, the exception being Queensland with 44% for yes and 38% for no. The poll was conducted December 9 to 12 from a sample of 1499.
• The Age/Herald reported last Wednesday on a quarterly analysis of Resolve Strategic polling, though since the pollster provides breakdowns for the three largest states with each poll result, this was less illuminating than the similar exercise performed for Newspoll. However, it did provide results for Western Australia, showing Labor up a point from its strong performance at the election to 38% and the Coalition down a further five to 30%.
• Calare MP Andrew Gee has quit the Nationals to sit as an independent over the party leadership’s opposition to an indigenous voice to parliament. This reduces the Coalition to 57 seats in the House of Representatives and increases the cross bench from 16 to 17, with Labor still on 77.
• A by-election looms for the Northern Territory seat of Arafura, which covers the Tiwi Islands along with mainland territory around West Arnhem, following the death last month of Lawrence Costa, the Labor member since 2016. A defeat would not imperil Natasha Fyles’ government, with Labor holding 14 out of the Legislative Assembly’s 25 seats, not including Blain MP Mark Turner who was expelled from caucus in February 2021.
• The Narracan supplementary election will be held on January 28, finally bringing resolution to the Victorian state election. The election for the seat was not conducted on November 26 after Nationals candidate Shaun Gilchrist died in the period between the close of nominations and election day.
• The Victorian Election Commission has announced it will conduct full preference counts through to the final counts in February, having previously only conducted the counts to the point needed to determine the winning candidate.
Those living in poverty have been left behind.
Labors S3 tax cuts must be scrapped and social fairness restored.
frednk @ #100 Monday, January 2nd, 2023 – 11:56 am
The NSW Labor right are their own worst enemy.
C@tmomma says:
Monday, January 2, 2023 at 11:07 am
C@t has AJ come to terms with his sexuality yet?
Politcal Nightwatchman @ #99 Monday, January 2nd, 2023 – 11:53 am
The Blairites carried on like Trumpers in not accepting the result. This badly damaged Labours electoral chances. Their weaponisation of anti-semitism against Corbyn also destroyed Labors election chances.
Labour should have accepted the Brexit referendum result at the time and would now be in a position to go to the next election with a commitment for another referendum.
Steve777 at 11.18 pm
You are more accurate re points 2, 4, 5 and 6 than 1 and 3, but 1 and 3 are where much money is. Rio Tinto was eventually shamed by the destruction of cultural heritage at Juukan Gorge. It will be interesting to see how that aspect plays out. Marcia Langton put a lot of faith into the mining companies having turned over a new leaf, which did not occur. She and Pat Dodson might use the Juukan Gorge fiasco as an example of what happens when there is no institutionalised Voice. Indeed they should, repeatedly. It is a very clear case which even some of the marginal voters may understand.
Turnout at referenda has been quite high, even when held separately from elections:
https://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/federal_elections/voter-turnout.htm
However, since this will be a single question referendum, whereas most previous votes had different questions, it is possible many marginal voters will not take part. Turnout will likely be less than when J.W. Howard clean bowled the Republicans in 1999: 95%.
People in big business (BCA etc) are not so stupid as to believe the Voice will increase bureaucracy. That is an idiotic Tory talking point. You will find there will be a number of big business leaders (Alan Joyce etc) only to happy to say they support the Voice.
There is a very clear answer from Anne Twomey in her SMH article to the rant about “detail”. Twomey had a hand in advising Noel Pearson about the Voice idea originally.
The most important Liberal apart from Dutton is Peter Costello, who will support the Voice as a belated way of differentiating himself from J.W. Howard. In the backwater of the MSM, it will be the Costello brigade (Savva etc) vs the Murdoch horror merchants.
A clear outline of the likely contest is in the Twomey article. This time those for Yes just need to play a straight bat like Greg Chappell and let the bowlers become ragged.
Sceptic says:
Monday, January 2, 2023 at 12:15 pm
C@tmomma says:
Monday, January 2, 2023 at 11:07 am
C@t has AJ come to terms with his sexuality yet?
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Do your own research.
Hang around Sydney public toilets as a starter.
The plane had unwelcome barnacles on its bottom?
c
haha
Dr Doolittle says:
Monday, January 2, 2023 at 12:28 pm
Steve777 at 11.18 pm
You are more accurate re points 2, 4, 5 and 6 than 1 and 3, but 1 and 3 are where much money is. Rio Tinto was eventually shamed by the destruction of cultural heritage at Juukan Gorge. It will be interesting to see how that aspect plays out. Marcia Langton put a lot of faith into the mining companies having turned over a new leaf, which did not occur. She and Pat Dodson might use the Juukan Gorge fiasco as an example of what happens when there is no institutionalised Voice. Indeed they should, repeatedly. It is a very clear case which even some of the marginal voters may understand.
——————————
How is the voice going to stop what happened at Juukan Gorge?
The voice is being sold as an advisory body to government without it having any policy making or policy implementation function.
Mexicanbeemer @ #109 Monday, January 2nd, 2023 – 12:44 pm
The Voice will add accountability to Govt decision making. It’s a good thing.
Rex
The Voice will add accountability to Govt decision making. It’s a good thing.
———————————
That doesn’t tell us how it would prevent what happened at Juukan Gorge.
Labour should have accepted the Brexit referendum result at the time and would now be in a position to go to the next election with a commitment for another referendum.
If Jeremey Corbyn had a position of not undoing Briexit and won the election. I doubt even he would be going to the following election proposing another referendum. It looks very cynical to the public for doing this when previously have promised you wouldn’t and you have just negotiated a Brexit deal.
Politcal Nightwatchman @ #112 Monday, January 2nd, 2023 – 12:52 pm
It would have been completely reasonable to say at the time ‘ok we’ll give this a period of time then re-assess’.
But no, the Blairites channelled the Trumpers and completely botched the politics of it.
Rex Douglas @ Monday, January 2, 2023 at 12:09 pm
Do you have access to the report? I am interested in the dataset. I cannot find the report on the ACOSS site. I cannot find the media release even.
Thanks
That may well be true and probably is, but asking for more information is not in itself an unreasonable thing to do. I’m sure there are many people, me included, who feel they are, in effect, being asked to sign a blank cheque.
The government’s position is very understandable, given the political realities of trying to get referenda passed in this country, but people still have a right to know in advance what they are really voting for. It is not at all clear to me that the government has fully thought this matter through and I am hoping that they will give us a bit more to go on before polling day that will convince me otherwise.
Mexicanbeemer @ #111 Monday, January 2nd, 2023 – 12:51 pm
A Voice can apply pressure to the parliament to strengthen regulation to prevent future instances such as the Juukan Gorge disaster.
And while I am on the Guardian Blog. I read this:
“Victoria’s Transport Accident is urging drivers to slow down, amid an uptick in the number of people killed on the road in 2022.
240 people lost their lives on Victorian roads last year, an increase on the 233 that died in 2021.
The TAC also noted an increase in deaths on regional roads, with 134 people dying in country areas compared with 119 in 2021 – while metropolitan road deaths dropped from 114 in 2021 to 106 in 2022.
TAC Acting Chief Executive Officer Liz Cairns said that while the number of deaths were tragic, they were also avoidable:
Sadly, more than 240 families are starting this year missing a loved one who lost their life on our roads in 2022 – it’s tragic, it’s avoidable and we need all Victorians to make safe choices and play a role in turning it around.”
In contrast the total number of COVID related deaths in 2022 was 4,726 (https://www.health.vic.gov.au/media-releases/chief-health-officer-update-23-december-2022).
Griff @ #114 Monday, January 2nd, 2023 – 1:00 pm
I think Goldie may have been referring to this.
https://reports.foodbank.org.au/foodbank-hunger-report-2022/
It would have been completely reasonable to say at the time ‘ok we’ll give this a period of time then re-assess’.
That wouldn’t’ have satisfied traditional Labour voters who support leave. It’s still having a position of a bet each way and wouldn’t held up at the general election when they could vote for certainty with Boris Johnson.
mb
The Voice won’t instantly solve every problem First Nations people have, and it’s unreasonable to expect it will.
Rex Douglas @ #116 Monday, January 2nd, 2023 – 1:00 pm
Of course, the No campaigners don’t want the added pressure and accountability from a Voice as they think they’re supreme.
Is this where the underlying white supremacist in them kicks in …?
Politcal Nightwatchman @ #119 Monday, January 2nd, 2023 – 1:09 pm
It would have been an acknowledgement and show of respect to democracy which some in the north may have gone with.
But no, the Blairites squealed like Trumpers with overflowing self-entitlement.
zoomster says:
Monday, January 2, 2023 at 1:13 pm
mb
The Voice won’t instantly solve every problem First Nations people have, and it’s unreasonable to expect it will.
———————
Dr Doolittle seems to think the voice would have prevented Juukan Gorge from happening but as Rex said its only going to be there to advise government.
The International Monetary Fund has predicted that global financial markets should brace for a tumultuous 2023. China’s outlook in the short term is also particularly dire as it unwinds its controversial zero-COVID policies, which will have further repercussions for other developing nations.
In a wide-ranging interview with CBS, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva cited a simultaneous slowdown of the three major economies as the reason for the gloomy outlook. Although the United States’ economy is resilient and could avoid a recession, Ms Georgieva said one third of the world might not be as fortunate. “Half of European Union will be in recession, China is going to slow down this year further. Next year will be a tough year for China,” she said.
“That translates into negative trends globally. When we look at emerging markets in developing economies, there the picture is even direr. “Because on top of everything else, they get hit by high interest rates and by the appreciation of the dollar.
https://www.skynews.com.au/business/finance/international-monetary-funds-kristalina-georgieva-warns-one-third-of-worlds-economy-will-be-in-recession-in-2023/news-story/a7c45aa7a6d73d64aa17b29f9ef85ed9
I think OC just like US nukes policy, Aaron will neither confirm nor deny his terrigal antecedents.
The blairites distroyed corbins 2017 campaign buy campaigning against which labor could have won only a few seats short yet the blairite controled head quarters and some mps actively worked against the campaign its suprising corbin did not sack mcnickol as soon as he took over and replace him with his own people in stead he appointed him to the lords desbite him being a critick
Rex Douglas @ Monday, January 2, 2023 at 1:08 pm
Thank you! I thought it was a new report out by ACOSS.
Aaron newton @ #126 Monday, January 2nd, 2023 – 1:24 pm
The Blairites effectively chaperoned Boris into No.10
An appalling group of people.
To turn to one failed Liberal party candidate may be regarded as a misfortune; to turn to two looks like carelessness!
SA Libs going for culture wars ..?
Matt Guy might want to advise a different tactic perhaps.
It could be fair to say that the UK is a mess. Politically and economically.
Re Corbyn, UK Labour really needed (needs?) to get its house in order. There are rotten boroughs on both sides. Plenty of corruption about; Local Councils in particular. And yes, there was antisemitism apparent in UK Labour. I was only privy to local events however, but it was real.
Mexicanbeemer at 12.44 pm
The Voice will certainly have a role in contributing to appropriate policy; indeed, that will be its primary role, in correcting policies that have not had direct Indigenous input. It will not have an implementation role, so it will be different to ATSIC. It is remarkable that there was never any serious review (e.g. by Rudd) of ATSIC, which had been a Labor experiment. It had some inherent problems, one being the low turnout for the elections which was a little over 30%, another being the lack of coordination between the elected Indigenous arm and the largely non-Indigenous bureaucracy, but it was worthy of a proper policy review, not just the cheap and nasty hatchet job and burial by Howard and Latham (that was when he first revealed his policy orientation).
There were two separate causes of the Juukan Gorge cultural heritage disaster. First, for all the window-dressing and the expectations of Marcia Langton et. al., there had been no substantive institutional change within Rio Tinto regarding First Nations peoples’ perspectives and rights. They were considered expendable in that corporate culture. One might expect that having a national Voice as an example will put pressure on such companies to change, though the pressure would need to be continual to work.
Ultimately in that regard the problems go back to the weakness of the Keating Native Title Act compared to the 1976 Fraser NT Land Rights legislation regarding the rights of Traditional Owners vs big business. It is remarkable that the 1976 legislation, which derived ultimately from Whitlam and the Woodward Royal Commission, is stronger.
The second problem is with the pathetic lack of protection provided to Traditional Owners by the McGowan Government. The destruction of Juukan Gorge occurred in May 2020, two days before the 53rd anniversary of the 1967 referendum, which gave the Commonwealth power to make laws for the benefit of Aborigines. One such law is the 1984 Aboriginal and Islander Heritage Protection Act. It was not strong enough, but the main failing was with the 1972 WA Aboriginal Heritage Act, which gave the mining companies all the power. There were attempts to change that under Barnett but they were incomplete. The first McGowan government was in power for over 3 years before the destruction of the cultural heritage at the Gorge. There are no excuses for failures by McGowan twice: first, in failing to change the legislation soon after being elected in March 2017, and second in the weakness of the changes finally made in late 2021.
The current WA Minister for Aboriginal Affairs, Tony Buti, has a long history of work for Aboriginal people as a solicitor, including for the Stolen Generations. He would know the structural problems well. He wrote an excellent biography of Ronald Wilson:
https://www.australianbookreview.com.au/abr-online/archive/2007/298-december-2007-january-2008-no-297/7386-tony-blackshield-reviews-sir-ronald-wilson-a-matter-of-conscience-by-antonio-buti
Steve777 (re the voice)
Ms. Burney is the widow of Rick Farley, who was once the head of the national farmers federation (and subsequently Landcare inter alia). So it is likely she has a fair bit of knowledge about how farmers and indigenous people can work together (informed by scientists)
There’s more to forests than what we see above the ground. The article describes somewhat macabre flowering plants that don’t need photosynthesis.
https://www.sciencealert.com/ethereal-new-plant-species-doesnt-use-photosynthesis-its-found-something-sneakier
But beyond these oddities, have we ever considered the vital support network below ground when devising forest management practices?
Andrew_Earlwood @ #96 Monday, January 2nd, 2023 – 11:49 am
You need professional help, Andrew_Earlwood. Now you have stooped to making fun of a blind man because he had the audacity to agree with me. Pathetic. No wonder Itza Dream said this blog was too toxic for him anymore.
Andrew Earlwood
“ In my view there is at least a 50% chance that America will withdraw from the contest for primacy in Asia. The Biden administration is temporary. It will end – either in two or six years (unless he dies or retires mid term). Xi too will pass at some point. If the modern Chinese state can endure the Cultural Revolution it will survive Xi.”
Yes. Earlier in 2022 I read Graham Allison’s much quoted book “The Thucydides Trap” and its implications for USA Vs China competition. It is very good, but clearly a much misquoted book.
Allison does NOT say war between China and USA is inevitable. Conflicts can be managed and compromises reached. One of the specific compromises proposed to avoid China vs USA conflict is for USA to withdraw from the western Pacific. So long US Navy; so long AUKUS! That could easily happen in a timeframe prior to Australian SSNs entering service.
So with apologies to Cat, as I said earlier, we should prepare for conflict, while trying to avoid it. That means we should maintain the US alliance as long as possible, but be prepared to survive without it too. That means we should avoid buying anything we can’t maintain without US support.
By contrast France isn’t going anywhere with over one million French citizens living on French islands in the Pacific. So we are not likely to be caught short with French subs, as they might want us to help them defend New Caledonia.
Does anyone have a link to the Stephen Fitzgerald piece being referred to? I’d be curious to read / hear it.
frednk @ #100 Monday, January 2nd, 2023 – 11:56 am
You’re right, frednk. He’s gone from my timeline. Any abuse directed at me from now on will be all him, and his inability to admit that others may have a different pov to him and so subject them to baseless ridicule.
New Years wish for Pollbludger:
Posters with views express the views and make good arguments for them without resorting to pointless and useless abuse of each other.
“ SA Liberals turn to Alan Jones and Katherine Deves to help chart new, more right-wing course”
SA Labor Premier Peter Malinauskas is unavailable to talk to the media at present. He is busy wiping away tears of joy.
Socrates,
https://www.whitlam.org/publications/2017/10/4/managing-ourselves-in-a-chinese-world-australian-foreign-policy-in-an-age-of-disruption
You can read my critique of it as well if you want to by going back to the previous thread/Sunday afternoon. That is if you are prepared to view it with an open mind.
Also, I think you’re dreaming if you think America should/will pull out of the Pacific. For one they have a Pacific Coast that they don’t want anyone getting near. They also have American Samoa, The Marshall Islands (still ?) and Guam. If you think they’re going to give them up then you’re wrong.
Happy Little Vegemites at the Russian New Year’s ‘celebrations’
Business Ukraine mag
@Biz_Ukraine_Mag
·
15h
Strong militarisation mood during this year’s New Year holiday programming on Kremlin TV. Putin is preparing Russians for a long war
This is sad. Katherine Deves is going after Courtney Act. 🙁
Cat
Thanks for the link. I will have a read.
I said “Western Pacific”. I agree there is no way USA would give up the Pacific near its west coast, Hawaii or islands that are US territories near it. However distant islands like Guam or any US forces on Japanese islands even further west I’m not so sure.
Of course it all depends on US politics which is unknown. Trump is a receding risk, but DeSantis is a growing risk. This article talks about DeSantis.
https://johnmenadue.com/the-woke-warriors-the-authoritarian-danger-in-2024/
You might want to try for something more realistic, like world peace.
“ Now you have stooped to making fun of a blind man because he had the audacity to agree with me. Pathetic.”
What is this fresh idiocy?
Why on earth is C@t recruiting the memory of Itza to her ‘cause’?
Labor has fully and repeatedly committed to the Voice, Makarrata and Treaty.
The Voice should not be considered in isolation.
Obviously, if the Voice goes down, as per the Greens and the Nationals, the Treaty is dead in the water.
C@tmomma says:
Monday, January 2, 2023 at 2:41 pm
This is sad. Katherine Deves is going after Courtney Act.
——————————————————————————————
The longer the Libs tolerate Deves and her appalling views, the better for Labor. Unfortunately however the LGBTIQ will continue to be collateral damage whilst she and Antic pursue their minority homophobic agendas.
Socrates at 2.23 pm
You say: “So we are not likely to be caught short with French subs, as they might want us to help them defend New Caledonia.”
From whom? The Kanaks? The subs are of no help in such a conflict. There were two votes, 43.3% for independence in 2018 and 47.6% in 2020. A farcical third vote in late 2021 was boycotted by the independence movement because it occurred during a major Covid wave. Turnout was only 45%, so the status of Kanaky has yet be to resolved. See:
https://www.nationalia.info/interview/11362/young-non-kanaks-have-voted-yes-for-independence-of-new-caledonia-and-we-can-convince-more
Thanks, Soc., I’ll read it. Though I’ll add that, with Hypersonic Missiles and an abandonment of the Western Pacific, America would not consider itself safe at all. Plus, why would America want to give up hard-won territory? For peace with China? China would never do that if the shoe were on the other foot. Also, there are numerous books that have outlined the bulwark to Trump’s most radical ideas which the military put up to thwart him. I can’t see that Ron De Santis would be able to overcome a similar hurdle. Anyway, Donald Trump hasn’t got through destroying De Santis yet. 🙂
A dangerous new Covid subvariant is wreaking havoc across the US and UK, with one expert labelling it the “next big one” and “the worst variant of the world right now”.
The new strain – dubbed XBB15, and a new version of the Omicron variant – first emerged in New York and has quickly exploded across the state and into the New England region, as well as in the UK.
According to the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), XBB15 cases nearly doubled over the last week, and is behind around three-quarters of all cases in New Jersey, New York and New England.
And while it’s still early days, experts are growing increasingly concerned about XBB15, following reports of huge spikes in hospitalisations in areas where it has taken over. Harvard-trained US epidemiologist Eric Feigl-Ding recently shared a series of alarming posts on Twitter regarding the so-called “super variant”, warning it was “among most immunity-evasive ‘escape variants’ to date” and that it was “one of the best variants for invading human cell” and also “spreads much faster” than older strains.