‘Tis the season to be silly, but there is at least the following to relate:
• Roy Morgan published an SMS poll a fortnight ago that found 53% would vote yes in a referendum on an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander voice to parliament, with 30% for no and 17% for undecided. A yes majority was recorded in five of six states, the exception being Queensland with 44% for yes and 38% for no. The poll was conducted December 9 to 12 from a sample of 1499.
• The Age/Herald reported last Wednesday on a quarterly analysis of Resolve Strategic polling, though since the pollster provides breakdowns for the three largest states with each poll result, this was less illuminating than the similar exercise performed for Newspoll. However, it did provide results for Western Australia, showing Labor up a point from its strong performance at the election to 38% and the Coalition down a further five to 30%.
• Calare MP Andrew Gee has quit the Nationals to sit as an independent over the party leadership’s opposition to an indigenous voice to parliament. This reduces the Coalition to 57 seats in the House of Representatives and increases the cross bench from 16 to 17, with Labor still on 77.
• A by-election looms for the Northern Territory seat of Arafura, which covers the Tiwi Islands along with mainland territory around West Arnhem, following the death last month of Lawrence Costa, the Labor member since 2016. A defeat would not imperil Natasha Fyles’ government, with Labor holding 14 out of the Legislative Assembly’s 25 seats, not including Blain MP Mark Turner who was expelled from caucus in February 2021.
• The Narracan supplementary election will be held on January 28, finally bringing resolution to the Victorian state election. The election for the seat was not conducted on November 26 after Nationals candidate Shaun Gilchrist died in the period between the close of nominations and election day.
• The Victorian Election Commission has announced it will conduct full preference counts through to the final counts in February, having previously only conducted the counts to the point needed to determine the winning candidate.
Mick Quinlivan says:
Monday, January 2, 2023 at 8:17 am
Naccaran on 28/1/23 chance of alp win despite 10% margin.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
According to media Labor not standing a candidate.
Lucky you didn’t have an early bet Mick.
New members to the EU do not get the same terms as the older members… So will the UK accept the entry terms of Romania and Slovenia?
Socrates says:
Monday, January 2, 2023 at 7:31 am
Morning all. I enjoyed the reasoned discussion of Ukraine v Russia last night. One of the players – Turkey – has an election due soon. Erdogan is increasingly autocratic and has profited from defecting from western sanctions on Russia.
This Guardian article looks at conflict risks around the world, including via Turkey/Iran / mid east, (China) Taiwan and North Korea.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jan/01/ukraine-taiwan-north-korea-iran-palestine-flashpoints-2023
Reading this, and thinking about the reality of the Ukraine conflict from last night, several conclusions seem apparent to me.
1. There is no case for Iraq style Australian army involvement in them. We would only inflame things and make matters worse. No more deputy sheriff please!
2. It follows from that that our army should be designed to defend Australia and assist regional neighbors, nothing more. So lets forget costly US tanks and AFVs. We should send the ones we have to Ukraine.
3. We should keep focusing on better regional alliances, similar to the QUAD.
4. We should focus our navy and air force on defending our region and patrolling shipping lanes to Australia. So subs, ships, F35s and missiles yes, B21s no.
5. RAN ships (or SSNs) in the Taiwan Straight is folly. We will make no difference to the outcome, and get caught in a dangerous war. We can still support Taiwan with supplies, as the west does for Ukraine.
6. AUKUS tying us closely to USA without any treaty benefit is not a good thing. What if Biden loses to De Santis in two years? Building French SSNs is more stable.
____________
Wishing everyone a great 2023!
Agree re ‘Defence of Australia’ as our strategic posture. My amendment might be ‘Defence of Australia in the light of US unreliability’. OK, we’re not allowed to say ‘US’ officially. How about ‘Defence of Australia in an uncertain security environment’?
Of course, much of our procurement this century has NOT been about defending Australia, but supporting the US’ wars…
‘Torchbearer says:
Monday, January 2, 2023 at 9:39 am
New members to the EU do not get the same terms as the older members… So will the UK accept the entry terms of Romania and Slovenia?’
—————————–
Size of prospective member matters…
RhWombat
“ Universal disembarkation RAT testing now! Fuck the money=privilege people.”
That makes sense from both a health and a foreign relations viewpoint. It avoids singling out China.
Boerwarsays:
Monday, January 2, 2023 at 9:24 am
The old status quo wouldn’t be acceptable to much of the EU.
Failure to embrace monetary union was already a source of angst for many and the power Britain had to resist it first time round no longer exists.
Socrates says:
Monday, January 2, 2023 at 9:46 am
RhWombat
“ Universal disembarkation RAT testing now! Fuck the money=privilege people.”
That makes sense from both a health and a foreign relations viewpoint. It avoids singling out China.
=============================
I support this approach pending the closing down of the air industry and its largely unnecessary 5% contribution to global greenhouse gases.
I think it likely that the UK is stuck with Brexit for a generation. While the scales may have fallen from the eyes of many of the punters, the loud and well-funded minority who drove it haven’t changed their minds as far as I can tell.
rhwombatsays:
Monday, January 2, 2023 at 9:32 am
That then raises the question of how you deal with positive results.
S777
Yep. Labor could lead the revolt against the Brexit numpties. But, under Starmer, will not do so.
‘Barney in Belair says:
Monday, January 2, 2023 at 9:54 am
rhwombatsays:
Monday, January 2, 2023 at 9:32 am
Universal disembarkation RAT testing now! Fuck the money=privilege people.
That then raises the question of how you deal with positive results.’
———————————–
1. It would guarantee near universal pre flight testing.
2. Put the onus on the airlines to fly positive passengers back to embarkation points.
Boerwarsays:
Monday, January 2, 2023 at 9:57 am
Why would there be any onus on the airline if the passenger presented a negative result on embarking?
” Why would there be any onus on the airline if the passenger presented a negative result on embarking?”
Give the passenger a choice of being taken back to their port of departure (if symptom free) at the Airline’s expense or going into quarantine at their own?
Boerwar @ #60 Monday, January 2nd, 2023 – 9:56 am
Starmer wants to get elected. Going openly anti-Brexit or rejoin now would put the ‘red wall’ seats in jeopardy, and give the evil Mail, Express and Murdoch shit sheets, and Farage, a pretext to shout continuous hate, lies and racist dog whistles, just like they did in the lead-up to the referendum. He can be frank after the election is won, hopefully in a landslide.
Pushing ‘rejoin’ now would be as stupid as proclaiming limits to negative gearing and franking credits.
An overwhelming number of comments below the article I linked to yesterday, on the clever people advising Albanese on “the Voice”, consisted of variations of “show me the detail” criticism. Someone here today opined that it appeared organised, and that fits. So, it bears repeating that our government will have the power to make and remake all the detail. Constitutions frame our decision making, the rest is up to us on the day. To put it differently, why would you want to remove that power from the Australian people?
Nevertheless:
https://ulurustatemdev.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/UluruStatementfromtheHeartPLAINTEXT.pdf
“Our Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander tribes were the first sovereign Nations of the Australian continent and its adjacent islands … This sovereignty is a spiritual notion … It has never been ceded or extinguished, and co-exists with the sovereignty of the Crown. … With substantive constitutional change and structural reform, we believe this ancient sovereignty can shine through as a fuller expression of Australia’s nationhood. … We call for the establishment of a First Nations Voice enshrined in the Constitution. … We seek a Makarrata Commission to supervise a process of agreement-making between governments and First Nations and truth-telling about our history.“
Barney in Belair @ #48 Monday, January 2nd, 2023 – 9:54 am
Turnback to transit limbo or self-funded quarantine. No exceptions – just like Albo. The priority is to identify numbers at point of entry and the onus is on the traveling individual, not the state. Better to know ones status before disembakation. Indelible ink bio-hazard symbols stamped on the forehead is (probably) a step too far.
MV VIKING ORION cruise ship update.
Acoording to MarineTraffic she is off the coast of Warrnambool heading to Melbourne. Speed 18 knots.
I’m still not convinced the marine infestation issue has been addressed.
An ‘abundence of caution’ should mean she anchors off Port Phillip Heads and tenders sent to transfer pax off the ship to shore.
Ship is sent back to home port for dry docking.
Morning bludgers.
I noticed that C@t submitted her four part homework yesterday to prove that she had – finally – gotten around to reading/watching/listening to Fitzgerald’s Whitlam Oration. Her review was somewhat jaundiced, and demonstrates how desperate she is to cling on the the notion of America beating China and retaining primacy. To each there own, but in my view the desirability of that contest occurring (or at least being framed in the terms of American vs Chinese primacy in East Asia or globally) has to be questioned, especially from Australia’s POV and strategic interests, and the outcome of that contest – if it were to play out all the way to kinetic war – would be likely be disastrous to us in particular.
C@t conflates the present day positions and challenges that China and America both face (and puts a pro American gloss on them) with the historical trends. When inflation is taken out of the equation ALL world GDP growth in the past 40 to 50 years has been due to economic development in Asia: driven mainly by the Chinese economy, but also including the north Asian tigers, India and ASEAN. China may have 1.4 billion , but the whole region accounts for something like half the world’s population. It was not a credulous stretch by any means for Fitzgerald to declare that the age of Vasco da Gama to be at an end in 2017. The fact is that China is – and short of a total collapse in its civic order – will remain at the head of the new pack that will – and is already – dominating the 21st century.
Sure China will face increased and tricky challenges of how to manage the last 20% migration from rural to urban china. As its economy matures it will need nuanced decisions – something that is anathema to Xi’s ‘command and control’ approach (which incidentally poses the real threat IMO to the degree of prosperity china will experience this decade). Be that as it may, the fundamental drivers that will see China assume primacy in Asia are set in stone and only something truly catastrophic (such as a nuclear war, or a break up of the nation state) will prevent it from manifesting itself. No amount of ‘crazy old man/woman yelling at passing clouds’ is going to change this. No wonder C@t had difficulty coping with what Fitzgerald was saying (go back and have a look at the first part of Part One of her review).
In my view there is at least a 50% chance that America will withdraw from the contest for primacy in Asia. The Biden administration is temporary. It will end – either in two or six years (unless he dies or retires mid term). Xi too will pass at some point. If the modern Chinese state can endure the Cultural Revolution it will survive Xi. It is valid exercise to peer into the crystal ball and engage in a bit of ‘what if’ type thinking. In my view the four most likely scenarios are as follows:
1. The next US administration will strip back the ‘counter China’ doctrine to a trade only based transactional relationship. No defence and security guarantees – express or implied – will be afforded to Taiwan, Japan or Korea.
2. The contest between America and China goes fully Cold War, but ultimately – sometime next decade – a 2030s administration does the same as what I suggest may happen in scenario 1.
3. The contest between America and China goes kinetic. America scores a Pyrrhic victory, but realises that China is in this for the long haul and decides to get out while the going is good, and quickly pivots to scenario 1 above.
4. The contest between America and China goes kinetic and we are drawn into this (because of … LNP forelock tugging and/or the enduring legacy of wolverine group thought) and America and its allies suffer a military defeat. America simply withdraws altogether from Asia in ignominy.
The least likely outcome is that in someway the counter China doctrine achieves its stated aims: China is contained and reduced to some sort of insular bubble of irrelevance & the American century is extended.
It should be obvious to everyone except the Jingos just how ill prepared we are to deal with the fall out of the most likely scenarios above. Which is what Hugh White has been banging on about since he wrote Power Shift a decade ago. Which is what concerns the likes of Bob Carr, Paul Keating, John Menadue – in fact all the old and wise hands. Indeed, what occupies the mind of our newly appointed Ambassador to Washington.
In my view the Australian-US relationship is nowhere near as ‘broad and deep’ as most people pretend it do be. Neither AUKUS or ANZUS is a NATO style agreement. Neither provide the sort of strategic platform that justifies us throwing in our lot with America in the way we have: Washington has picked us up ‘for free’ and without any reciprocal guarantees beyond wishful thinking.
C@t often likes to throw this canard on the table: that folk like me, White, Fitzgerald etc want Australia to abandon America and the American alliance. What bullshit: what we are all saying is that the real risk is that America may abandon its present Asia pivot and hence abandon us. To become ‘embedded’ with American ‘interoperability’ / interchangeability on such a narrow and shallow basis is foolhardy in the extreme: terrible risk management. Nor does AUKUS or ANZUS provide a pathway to a much broader and deeper alliance position. Any more than the QUAD does. Sure Japan would like to join. Like Britain it probably sees some coin to be made in developing and flooding military hardware. More fundamentally, it is in Japan’s direct security interest to have America straining like a dog on the leash to ‘go after’ the ChiComms. So what. Until member states are prepared to fully put on the table a treaty commitment to mutual defence then we have – at best – a mere ‘thoughts and prayers’ commitment from America – and other QUAD/AUKUS members that in return for us volunteering once again for front line duty in a foreign war on the other-side of the equator that they would have our back in return. Compounding the epic clustercuss we find ourselves in because of this policy of nestling ourselves in Uncle Sam’s sweaty armpit without any guarantees, is the extent to which we have either told other countries that matter to FO (ie. France) or have ignored them sufficiently that they find succour in the arms of our perceived enemies (ie. SI). Not to mention kicking the Indonesian relationship into the long grass and putting ASEAN relations on the back burner.
We have to do better. Being a realistic would be a good start.
Unless the next American administration pulls the pin early (ie. scenario 1 above) then it seems that we are in for a decade long (at least) contest for primacy in East Asia between America and China. being realistic, we should assume this as fact. The best way therefore to manage ourselves in that environment is to pursue – at the highest levels (ie. out of the PM’s office) the broadening and deepening of as many relationships as we can.
If for no other reason than having a strategic backstop we need to bring France back into a strategic partnership. Swapping the UK for France in AUKUS would be a very good outcome, IMO. keeping them both in the tent would be even better.
If we are to join in with a ‘counter v China’ policy – and it seems certain that we we will – we should be publicly promoting a regional NATO style treaty arrangement at every point. ‘Mr President, we agree with hosting American B-21s, B-1Bs and B-52s in Queensland and NT and american SSNs in our naval facilities, but at a price: a mutual defence agreement, preferably multilateral with our good friends [insert lists of willing participants]’.
Short of securing a NATO type agreement with America (and given that we have already given them our arse for free, it would appear unlikely that they would then agree to pay any future socket fee for the privilege of using our arse in the future) we must pull back from the current arrangements as much as we can and seek to pursue seperate arrangements with as many potential allies as possible.
We must also do what we can to continue to repair the Australia-China relationship as possible, Xi or no Xi. That to must be run our of the PM”s office, preferably dealing directly with Xi himself (and his eventual successor).
The BCA seem confused between ‘Living with covid’ and ‘zero regulation let it rip’. How surprisement – not. What a joke of a lobby group. Just a Liberal Party in better suits.
Barney in Belair says:
Monday, January 2, 2023 at 10:01 am
Boerwarsays:
Monday, January 2, 2023 at 9:57 am
‘Barney in Belair says:
Monday, January 2, 2023 at 9:54 am
rhwombatsays:
Monday, January 2, 2023 at 9:32 am
Universal disembarkation RAT testing now! Fuck the money=privilege people.
That then raises the question of how you deal with positive results.’
———————————–
1. It would guarantee near universal pre flight testing.
2. Put the onus on the airlines to fly positive passengers back to embarkation points.
Why would there be any onus on the airline if the passenger presented a negative result on embarking?
==========================================
They make the profits. They take the risk.
Good post AE. Some good food for thought.
Jaundiced yourself much, Earlwood? You can fuck off with your condescending reference to my critique of Fitzgerald’s own jaundiced, Pro China, Anti America, oration as my ‘homework’. I thank the good lord above that I am not a female in your family that has to live with a condescending prat like you.
Nevertheless, I should have known that your request for me to listen to an Anti American diatribe by Fitzgerald was a trap that you had laid for me. Don’t worry, I won’t pay you the respect of doing anything you ask of me again. Fool me once, and all that.
Earlwood, I can just imagine you being one of the ‘Right On!’ fools who protested about Pine Gap. Seems there’s no fool like an old fool and Fitzgerald is one of them, as he suggests that we get rid of it. But then the Chinese and the Russians would love that, so it fits his modus operandi.
Oh, and at least I took his contribution seriously, which is more than you have rudely (as I now should always expect) done for mine. Ever the Prosecutorial hammer, looking for the Accused’s forehead to hammer the nail into.
Oh, and zero points for originality. You have copied my suggestion and support of the idea of the FM and PM being the voice to China. However, I wasn’t as dewey-eyed as you and injected a note of caution that anyone who deals with China from Australia should have.
And such a facile analysis of the future of the America-China contest (you completely ignore the contribution of North America to the equation). America is already moving production hubs to their own country and others such as Mexico (for cheap manufacturing opportunities and lower transport costs).
Oh, and I love the ‘crazy old woman’ epithet you have tried to attach to me. Because I apparently don’t have the cognitive sufficiency to comprehend what the angry old man who was obviously full of the sense of his own self importance was saying. Typical of your modus operandi, Earlwood. Attack the man/woman and not the ball. I mean you breezily stated I didn’t get it but you have failed to offer a cogent rebuttal as to how or why I was incapable of developing an understanding of the great man’s words. And it’s ‘interesting’ that the only parts of my critique that you don’t criticise are the ones where I agree with him. Obvious much?
But then you are a groupie for the Old Men of Labor Club, for whom every word they utter is gospel on tablets handed down from the Light On the Hill. I guess there’s a burning bush up there as well.
Although it’s a common scenario, being played out world-wide right now. Old powerful men, in their senescence, continuing to try and prove to us that they can get it up, as the Millennial and Gen Z tidal wave swamps them and washes them out to sea. Henry Kissinger is another one. They see themselves as Old Men of the Sea, but in reality they are just flotsam and jetsam.
Just as well there are those of us who are willing and able to challenge them and their hidebound ideas when necessary. And who aren’t simply gormless groupies who hang off their every word uncritically.
You may call my assessment, ‘jaundiced’. I simply thought it was clear-eyed. Reply with more condescending attempts to humiliate me if you want. I fully expect it. But it will say more about you than me.
Old Woman yelling at passing clouds. Well, THAT was a pretty prescient one liner, wasn’t it fellow bludgers.
The Illiberals in SA are losing the plot:
“6. AUKUS tying us closely to USA without any treaty benefit is not a good thing. What if Biden loses to De Santis in two years? Building French SSNs is more stable.”
Agree with that one Soc. Apart from political risk reduction, to go off the shelf Barracuda, (with a US combat system), reduces the design / production risks on the project enormously.
Will await with interest the Govts direction on this which we may find out in March??
Andrew_Earlwood @ #73 Monday, January 2nd, 2023 – 11:06 am
Andrew-Earlwood resorting to more cyber abuse of a woman. That wasn’t expected Bludgers, was it? 🙄
I guess when that’s all you’ve got … 😐
Can we have a Chris Minns diatribe, Andrew_Earlwood? I’ve got it on my bingo card. 😀
Oh the heaping of the ashes of self pity was inevitable. C@t’s personal version of kabuki theatre.
I think that getting “The Voice” referendum through this year is very much a touch and go proposition. The stakes are high. A loss will be a major setback for the cause of First Nations, taking the Voice off the agenda for a decade or more.
So I believe that it is important for the Government and those campaigning the Voice to understand who is opposing it and why, so that they can develop the campaign accordingly. The list includes some very loud and very well-funded interests. Much of the debate will parallel what happened with Mabo and Wik some 25-30 years ago.
1. The extractive industries (miners, fossil fuels, etc). An effective Voice would strengthen the influence and negotiating position of First Nations. This might get in the way of raking in big (mostly tax-free) bucks.
2. Big agribusiness – grazing, cotton, etc. Ditto.
3. Elements in business community more generally, the IPA types, who would see it as an increase in the size and role of government and therefore oppose it in principle. Big overlap with groups 1 and 2.
4. The Right of mainstream Australian conservatism, which is assimilationist at heart. They seem to believe that First Nations should discard any notion of a separate identity, join the aspirationals and get a house with a white picket fence. John Howard is their patron saint.
5. The talkback / sky after dark / Murdoch believer crowd. Not necessarily racist, their view seems to be something like “We won, they lost, Australia is the best country in the World, they should just get over it like the Anglo Saxons got over the Norman Conquest”. Big overlap with 4.
6. Racists. Big overlap with 4 and 5. Nothing can be done except to call out the more egregious instances when they manifest.
Finally, there’s a very important group, low information voters who don’t fit into any of the previous categories. Generally well intentioned but with no strong opinion one way or another on the Voice and no personal stake in it, they more than anyone would be receptive to scares and disinformation, but on the plus side could be persuaded with a well-framed, positive message.
My two cents worth, maybe an accurate valuation…
if we have to go back to an ambasada from the 1970s that has any thing to say positive to say about the current chinease government then its difficult to find any credable people Fitsgerald since 1980 ran a consultent firm helping businessis concect with the Ccpuntil 2010 so he is hardly moore credable on china then aspi which are payed buy us weapons manufacturers
Andrew_Earlwood @ #78 Monday, January 2nd, 2023 – 11:14 am
As is your resort to more personal abuse. Now you’re just being nasty for nasty’s sake. Are you getting off on it or something? You’re not proving anything about me to the other Bludgers here you know? You are proving something obvious about yourself though.
Now, are you going to keep this up all day in your vain quest to win over the Bludgers to your vile view about me? If so, then I’m out until you find some other way to expend your anger energy. I truly feel great sadness and pity for you, Andrew_Earlwood that you have to continue this way. Listen to AAron newton if you don’t want to listen to a woman, or simply me. He gets it. You don’t.
CIA staff had a “suicide pact” to resign if Donald Trump fired director Gina Haspel, a former aide to the president told the House’s January 6 select committee.
Alyssa Farah Griffin said that the threat of a mass walkout stopped Trump from replacing Haspel with supporter Kash Patel, according to transcripts released by the committee in late December.
“I will share one thing that I cannot confirm myself, but it’s worth looking into,” said Farah Griffin, a former director of communications at the White House. She gave the testimony in April 2022.
“I have been told that they tried to fire Gina Haspel, the CIA director, and install Kash Patel.”
“But Gina, who’s a very savvy operator and an incredible public servant, already had what I call a suicide pact in place,” she said.
“Basically the entire [intelligence community] would walk with her if that happened, officially, like – or essentially, like, decapitating the entire intelligence community.” Haspel served as a CIA intelligence officer for 33 years before Trump appointed her as director in 2018, making her the first woman to hold that post. Trump wanted to nominate Patel as her deputy and then fire her to leave Patel in charge, Axios and Vanity Fair both reported last year.
suprised earlwood is so anti minns when he was first elected he was very pro china must be still upset that Minns managed to get rid of Adam searle from the upper house ticket who will resume his corear as a barister like he did until 2013 whil being a shadow minister a sign of integrity being a shadow minister but it was not good enough foor Searle so he worked representing government departments which is not great until robertson stoped him but no dought ifthe worst labor leader in recent years Miichael daley was leader we would be in a wining position moore then minns strong victory in march
plus in the liberal dominated upper house wich hunt designed to find evidence against Chal asfour bankstown mayor the liberals realy struggled spoke about a consultents firm and when there questioning fell flat Mark latham ran interfeareence to triy and save his liberal friends like chris rath
Well Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaron
You can start with Fitzgerald, but also plot forward pretty easily from there.
FYI – here is a list of Australian Ambassadors to the Middle Kingdom:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ambassadors_of_Australia_to_China
Here is Frances Adamson’s most recent public statement on China:
https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/be-patient-albanese-s-china-reset-likely-to-be-a-long-march-20221125-p5c18t
Also, your framing is off: the issue isn’t whether folk have positive things to say about the present Chinese government. It’s about managing the relationship as a whole: see Adamson above.
“ As is your resort to more personal abuse.”
Do you have any sense of self awareness? At all?
AN
Your opinion of Stephen FitzGerald seems to be drawn from Wikipedia. Anyone with even the smallest stake in Australian-Chinese scholarship and even many who don’t know the depth of his work and the importance of his views
Is Lars correct? Are you an ex-Terrigal functionary waiting to be intruded into the wheels of government?
Earlwood should be happy that labor won gillmore at the last election desbite constences campaign he went on 2gb to attack labor over lack of bush fire support claiming homes had not been rebuilt his side did not do much so to cover up foor his failure to resolve transport he is still reliying on good will from the bush fires years a go
C@T thanks muchly for the Dawn Patrol.
“ Earlwood should be happy that labor won gillmore at the last election”
Indeed I am.
s777
Add to your list:
7. Thorpe, Greens spokesperson for Indigenous Affairs: ‘The Voice Referendum is a wast of money.’
Boerwarsays:
Monday, January 2, 2023 at 7:58 am
Of course the EU would welcome Britain back into the EU. No brainer. Business is business. The UK in the EU is good for everyone.
What does Great Britain have that the Europeans want ?
If there exists no reward can you see a re-unification ?
Perhaps the Russian/Putin imbroglio could be the catalyst ?
While not wanting to get into the toils too closely I do want to emphasize a couple of points:
1. We have been drifting into a significant loss of sovereignty in the defence/national security space.
2. We are getting eff all in return for this drift.
3. We are not nearly putting enough effort into SEA relationships, in particular with Indonesia.
4. The Plan to have different countries as defence and economic hegemons is inherently unstable and potentially lose lose.
C@tmomma @ #3 Monday, January 2nd, 2023 – 5:48 am
On the one hand, yes.
On the other, I like the way driving Twitter into a wall distracts Elon from his other ventures, and Tesla specifically. My car got a software update this month that delivered several major UI updates, all positive and well thought out improvements over the prior design. Relatively unheard of as far as Tesla UI overhauls go. Is it a coincidence that this happened while Elon is giving his focus to Twitter? Maybe. But also maybe not.
Whatever the case may be, less Elon seems like a good thing for any company. I’d rather see Tesla reap the benefits of that than Twitter. Who even cares about Twitter? Long may Elon preside over it. 😆
Ven @ 8.26am
“Shame on Richard Marles for continuing it with the consent of Albanese. No ifs, no buts and no other anatomical parts.”
You’ve jumped a few rungs of the ladder there .
And Aaaaaaron, the views of Geoff Ruby (Ambassador to China 2007-11) are worth pursuing as well. There are a number of Yioutube podcasts he has participated in, plus several books and newspaper interviews. Spoiler alert: you might find that he and Fitzgerald are … largely … as one.
Isn’t this fun: plotting through the opinions of all the experts since the 1970s and discovering their collective horror at the current clustercuss, as C@t cheers loudly in support.
What is this? Fourth or fifth plane forced to divert/return?
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jan/02/qantas-flight-to-philippines-forced-to-turn-back-to-sydney-as-authorities-close-airspace
Steve777
1. The extractive industries (miners, fossil fuels, etc). An effective Voice would strengthen the influence and negotiating position of First Nations. This might get in the way of raking in big (mostly tax-free) bucks.
2. Big agribusiness – grazing, cotton, etc. Ditto.
3. Elements in business community more generally, the IPA types, who would see it as an increase in the size and role of government and therefore oppose it in principle. Big overlap with groups 1 and 2.
4. The Right of mainstream Australian conservatism, which is assimilationist at heart. They seem to believe that First Nations should discard any notion of a separate identity, join the aspirationals and get a house with a white picket fence. John Howard is their patron saint.
5. The talkback / sky after dark / Murdoch believer crowd. Not necessarily racist, their view seems to be something like “We won, they lost, Australia is the best country in the World, they should just get over it like the Anglo Saxons got over the Norman Conquest”. Big overlap with 4.
6. Racists. Big overlap with 4 and 5. Nothing can be done except to call out the more egregious instances when they manifest.
Finally, there’s a very important group, low information voters who don’t fit into any of the previous categories. Generally well intentioned but with no strong opinion one way or another on the Voice and no personal stake in it, they more than anyone would be receptive to scares and disinformation, but on the plus side could be persuaded with a well-framed, positive message.
—————————-
That pretty much covers it but would add one other group that for some reason doesn’t like the government and wants to give it a kick knowing how important this issue is too the government.
Starmer wants to get elected. Going openly anti-Brexit or rejoin now would put the ‘red wall’ seats in jeopardy, and give the evil Mail, Express and Murdoch shit sheets, and Farage, a pretext to shout continuous hate, lies and racist dog whistles, just like they did in the lead-up to the referendum. He can be frank after the election is won, hopefully in a landslide.
Pushing ‘rejoin’ now would be as stupid as proclaiming limits to negative gearing and franking credits.
Agree with this whole heartedly. Jeremy Corbyn gave the british public the opt out by having another referendum to vote on the Brexit deal. It was rejected by the public in a landslide loss. There were some commentators who thought Labour’s position of not completely accepting the result and moving on was a mistake to begin with.
It doesn’t mean though there aren’t those on Labour’s side who would like to undo Brexit. Former Blair government strategist Alastair Campbell was expelled from the Labour party for saying he voted for the Liberal Democrats in the European elections because of their support for a second Brexit referendum.
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Monday, January 2, 2023 at 11:06 am
Old Woman yelling at passing clouds. Well, THAT was a pretty prescient one liner, wasn’t it fellow bludgers.
Andrew and C@t.
I suspect the average poll bludger long ago stopped reading. nothing new gets added,have no idea what the one liner was and really don’t care.