Preference flows and by-elections (open thread)

A look at preference flow data from the 2019 and 2022 elections, and the latest on looming by-elections in the Northern Territory, Tasmania and (sort of) Western Australia.

Something I really should have noted in last week’s post is that the Australian Electoral Commission has now published two-candidate preferred preference flow data from the election, showing how minor party and independent preferences flowed between Labor and the Coalition. The table below shows how Labor’s share increased for the four biggest minor parties and independents collectively (and also its fraction decrease for “others”) from the last election to this and, in the final column, how much difference each made to Labor’s total share of two-party preferred, which was 52.13%.

Note that the third column compares how many preference Labor received with how many they would have if preference flows had been last time, which is not the same thing as how many preferences they received. Labor in fact got nearly 2% more two-party vote share in the form of Greens preferences at this election because the Greens primary vote was nearly 2% higher this time.

State and territory by-election:

• Six candidates for the August 20 by-election in the Northern Territory seat of Fannie Bay, in ballot paper order: Brent Potter, described in a report as a “government adviser, army veteran and father of four”, for Labor; independent George Mamouzellos; independent Raj Samson Rajwin, who was a Senate candidate for the United Australia Party; Jonathan Parry of the Greens; independent Leah Potter; and Ben Hosking, “small business owner and former police officer”, for the Country Liberals.

• Following the resignation of Labor member Jo Siejka, a by-election will be held for the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Pembroke on September 10. Siejka defeated a Liberal candidate by 8.65% to win the eastern Hobart seat at the periodic election in 2019. There will also be a recount of 2021 election ballots in Franklin to determine which of the three unelected Liberals will replace Jacquie Petrusma following her resignation announcement a fortnight ago. As Kevin Bonham explains, the order of probability runs Bec Enders, Dean Young and James Walker.

• Still no sign of a date for Western Australia’s North West Central by-election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,594 comments on “Preference flows and by-elections (open thread)”

Comments Page 5 of 32
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  1. I’d like to see a head-to-head between BW and Andrew Bolt.

    Both claim to be of Dutch heritage, and both claim to have spent oodles of time with our Indigenous peoples.

  2. poroti

    Noted. The Jet Charge site recommends this unit for home charging a Leaf:
    Schneider EVlink Smart Wallbox (Level 2 station)

    This is not a fast charger but will reliably recharge the Leaf to 100% in 6 hrs. Anyone had any experience with them?

  4. kezza2 says:
    Friday, August 5, 2022 at 5:58 pm

    I’d like to see a head-to-head between BW and Andrew Bolt.

    Both claim to be of Dutch heritage, and both claim to have spent oodles of time with our Indigenous peoples.
    _______
    A cage match between 2 gigantic know-it-alls. 2 men enter, 1 man leaves.

  5. BK

    A great way to end a constructive week with a non-sociopathic government running the country.

    “HometoBilo@HometoBilo 3.39pm
    BREAKING: BILOELA FAMILY RECEIVE PERMANENT VISAS
    At 2.30pm today the Nadesalingam family, affectionately referred to as the ‘Biloela family’, were visited by the Department of Home Affairs team at their Biloela home and given the news that they have been granted permanent visas.”

  7. Rex Douglas says:
    Friday, August 5, 2022 at 6:06 pm

    Wong’s fiery temperament concerns me.
    ____________
    What normal person wouldn’t walk out on Lavrov?

  8. The Young Liberals reckon that ‘genuine’ inaction on climate change might have had something to do with the election defeat.

  12. Rex Douglassays:
    Friday, August 5, 2022 at 6:06 pm
    Wong’s fiery temperament concerns me.
    _____________________
    Imagine what Kitching went through.

  14. Boerwar

    Yes thanks. I am amazed there was even consideration of letting the Germans still send diesel engines suitable for subs to China. Under NATO rules not to supply arms to potential hostile nations that should have been off the table. Diesels made to sub specifications are very quiet, very specialised and only a few companies make them. The obvious risk is that the Chinese could turn around and use these in more modern boats for themselves.

    The subs offered are actually the old model Yuan that the Chinese are replacing in their own navy, so its all a bit odd. These are not a threat to Australia in any way. Aimed at Malaysia more likely.

  15. Rex Douglas @ #161 Friday, August 5th, 2022 – 4:00 pm

    If, as some are saying, Pelosi’s motive for the Taiwan visit was to enhance her own election standing, then she is pure evil.

    It was only aaron newton saying it and he was wrong. As his pronouncements are a substantial amount of the time. Only someone who wants to cynically use them to make their own cynical point would believe it without question.

    Nancy Pelosi is 82 years old already! She will be 84 in 2024. Plus she is a woman. Not to mention there’s no way that anyone could guarantee she would survive one term, let alone even an election campaign.

  20. Socrates
    Yesterday I had a BMW home charger installed. Until now I have plugged into the wall socket and a recharge has taken up to 12 hours.
    Points for dummies:
    1. I thought I had 3 phase power in the house
    2. In fact I had 3 phase power to the house but not in the house.
    3. Converting this cost about $1800 on top of the cost of the charger about $1200
    4. Changing to 3 phase power requires a new smart meter, which must be provided by the retailer
    5. I use Sumo as the retailer who could be described as cheap but nasty. Getting them to agree that they are responsible and then supply the meter has taken 3 weeks. The first person I spoke to at the call centre (after 75 minutes) thought 3 Phase Power was another new retailer and warned me of dire consequences if I changed retailer (I am not making this up)
    6. I now have an inner fuzzy glow because the car can now be charged in 2 – 3 hours!

  21. I admit it. I have fantasies about being Penny Wong’s bodyguard. Anyone messes with her, bang!

    Not that she needs it.

  23. Boerwar
    “Soc
    Possibly driven more by money under the table than strategic considerations?”

    Entirely possible. I have posted previously about the number of bribery and corruption cases involving submarine purchases uncovered in the past two decades. You would hardly say the Thais are above it.

    Personally, I think some investigation of our French contract is appropriate. There were lots of lobbyists involved. Did money change hands? Did ex-defence officials comply with separation obligations? Did they act to protect the public interest in terms of cost and liability?

    Off to make dinner.

  24. SOC, OC
    We can’ t afford everyone having those sorts of transaction costs during a national transition to EV’s.

  26. C@tmomma says:
    Friday, August 5, 2022 at 6:26 pm

    You have to earn the respect of Penny Wong. You don’t just get it automatically.
    ____________
    I like that she doesn’t do fakery. When she smiles she means it. Anyway I could go on.

  27. The Biloela Family getting a permanent stay is an example of how the Albanese Govt is operating.
    rather than talking a big game, the govt is being methodical and talking through actions.
    Another one is palmers mine in Qld.
    It’s about results not announcements

  28. Who could forget Wongs tantrum after debating Birmingham where she refused to shake his hand !

    Now she’s chucked wobbly and stormed out of regional foreign ministers meeting.

    Australia needs a calm head as FM.

  31. BW
    Indeed. together with the increased cost of an EV, the mass use of electric cars is some time off – but they are fun to drive and you don’t have to stop or pay for petrol (I haven’t seen my first electricity bill yet)

  32. nath says:
    Friday, August 5, 2022 at 5:28 pm
    Bill Shorten has been revealed as a massive Neighbours fan. Obviously he hasn’t been that busy over the past 30 years.
    —————————————————————-
    Pre Neighbours I actually paid Holly Valance and family house rent. And Star of the Sea College fees. Years later she effectively became a billionaire.
    May the force be with you Bill!

  34. Dr John says:

    Pre Neighbours I actually paid Holly Valance and family house rent
    __________________
    Just Name Drop everyone at once rather than the drip feed. So far we’ve got Rupert Murdoch, Jonathan Munz, Mick Gatto, Johnny Famechon, Cathy Freeman, Holly Valance……..I may have missed a couple.

  35. Yes Rex, we remember.

    That signaled the start your new found love of centre/right Liberals.

    How dare Wong call out Birmingham’s lap dog support of the more extreme elements of his Party.

    By the way, where is it suggested that she “stormed out”?

    The Guardian blog says that she “walked out.”

  36. Hanson’s No campaign is off to a cracking start!

    Patrick Keneally@patrickkeneally
    ·
    1h
    Not that I am doubting Senator Hanson’s understanding of Australian democracy, but she is going to be very upset when she finds out about local government

  37. Barney in Cherating @ #235 Friday, August 5th, 2022 – 6:58 pm

    Yes Rex, we remember.

    That signaled the start your new found love of centre/right Liberals.

    How dare Wong call out Birmingham’s lap dog support of the more extreme elements of his Party.

    By the way, where is it suggested that she “stormed out”?

    The Guardian blog says that she “walked out.”

    Walkouts like that are carefully planned and workshopped well before the event, no doubt based on some trigger statement being made by the speaker.

    Emotion would have nothing to do with it.

  38. Just Name Drop everyone at once rather than the drip feed. So far we’ve got Rupert Murdoch, Jonathan Munz, Mick Gatto, Johnny Famechon, Cathy Freeman, Holly Valance……..I may have missed a couple.
    ——————————————
    You have missed and through life there are plenty more.
    But what’s your actual problem when I drop an occasional anecdote?
    You personally on PB are about as boring and edifying as Taylormade.

  39. Dr John says:
    Friday, August 5, 2022 at 7:05 pm

    Just Name Drop everyone at once rather than the drip feed. So far we’ve got Rupert Murdoch, Jonathan Munz, Mick Gatto, Johnny Famechon, Cathy Freeman, Holly Valance……..I may have missed a couple.
    ——————————————
    You have missed and through life there are plenty more.
    But what’s your actual problem when I drop an occasional anecdote?
    ________________________
    Name-dropping is used to position oneself within a social hierarchy. It is often used to create a sense of superiority by raising one’s status. By implying (or directly asserting) a connection to people of high status, the name-dropper hopes to raise their own social status to a level closer to that of those whose names they have dropped, and thus elevate themselves above, or into, present company.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Name-dropping

  40. I was once at an international meeting and happened to see the list of things that would lead to a US walkout (have forgotten most of them but Holocaust denial was one). Given that it wasn’t exactly the sort of meeting at which anyone was going to engage in Holocaust denial I assume it was a standard list.

    At the same meeting, with countries seated alphabetically (in English), it occurred to me that the Irish must have to do a lot of informal peacemaking between Iran and Israel at UN meetings.

  41. This just gets murkier and murkier! How long now until the premier is directly implicated?

    The state’s public service commissioner has given a searing review of the recruitment process that saw John Barilaro appointed to a US trade role, saying she would never have signed off on a final selection report if she knew then what she knows now.

    Kathrina Lo, who was an independent member of Barilaro’s interview panel, told a parliamentary inquiry she has since learned key information that was never disclosed to independent panel members.

    “This includes the degree of ministerial involvement, including input into shortlisting and provision of an informal reference,” the long-serving public servant said. “Had I known on 15 June, what I know now, I would not have endorsed the report [that selected Barilaro].”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/female-candidate-was-ranked-highest-to-help-fulfil-mandate-to-appoint-a-woman-to-the-role-inquiry-hears-20220805-p5b7il.html

  43. It seems Wong has an issue with people trying to justify the unjustifiable.

    Penny Wong walks out on Russian speech at summit
    Tory Shepherd
    The foreign affairs minister, Penny Wong, has walked out during her Russian counterpart’s address to the East Asia summit in Cambodia.

    It is understood an Australian official was still present while the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, spoke, and that it was not a pre-planned protest from Wong.

    “Minister Wong could not sit through Mr Lavrov’s attempt to justify the murder of innocent Ukrainians,” a spokesperson said.

    Last month, at the G20 in Indonesia, Wong said:

    Russia’s unprovoked, unjustified and illegal invasion of Ukraine is not only the cause of untold loss of life and damage.

    It is not only a primary cause of the global energy and food security crisis wreaking havoc on our economies and pushing millions more of the world’s people into severe food insecurity.

    It is also a profound breach of trust. And it is up to all nations to hold this breach to account, or the cost will be borne by all of us.

    This is why Russia’s aggression cannot be normalised and it cannot be minimised.

    The Guardian blog

  44. BT
    A quote from Yes Prime Minister, when Bernard is organising the funeral of the previous Prime Minister:
    Bernard: [on the phone] No we can’t have alphabetical sitting in the Abbey, you would have Iran and Iraq sitting together, plus Jordan and Israel all in the same pew, we would be in danger of starting World War Three. No! I know Ireland begins with an I but No! Ireland doesn’t make it any better, Ireland doesn’t make anything any better.

  45. Rex has morphed into some anti Labor troll, easily ignored I think.
    I love the new tone and vibe in national politics since May 21, Albo and team have got off to a great start.

  48. nath @ #238 Friday, August 5th, 2022 – 7:08 pm

    Dr John says:
    Friday, August 5, 2022 at 7:05 pm

    Just Name Drop everyone at once rather than the drip feed. So far we’ve got Rupert Murdoch, Jonathan Munz, Mick Gatto, Johnny Famechon, Cathy Freeman, Holly Valance……..I may have missed a couple.
    ——————————————
    You have missed and through life there are plenty more.
    But what’s your actual problem when I drop an occasional anecdote?
    ________________________
    Name-dropping is used to position oneself within a social hierarchy. It is often used to create a sense of superiority by raising one’s status. By implying (or directly asserting) a connection to people of high status, the name-dropper hopes to raise their own social status to a level closer to that of those whose names they have dropped, and thus elevate themselves above, or into, present company.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Name-dropping

    So I’m never allowed to say that I worked with Senator Penny Wong or to tell anecdotes about that time?

  49. I am not a supporter of “walk outs”, the reasons being:-

    By listening you understand the circumstance which has led to the impasse – and by listening a resolution may become apparent

    Bearing in mind no one is always right

    And no one is always wrong

    By paying the respect of listening you remain engaged in the process of seeking resolution

    And by listening you are able to identify positions which are not sustainable (on both sides of a dispute) and you can engage in meaningful conversation referencing unsustainable positions and the reasons

    As Albanese said, we have 2 ears and one mouth for a reason

    At the end of the day we are all human beings – and all conflicts resolve (including by a DMZ on the Korea Peninsula)

    What is the alternative?

    So I do not agree with Wong walking out

    Just as I do not agree Pelosi going to Taiwan – clearly provocative given the history of Formosa and a generation of presenting themselves as the mainland government in exile having been defeated in a Civil War 70 years ago

    Taiwan is 100 miles off the China coast (recalling the USA response to Russia and Cuba during the Kennedy Administration)

    History is what it is

    If the Liberal Party supporters on this site wish to be critical of Wong perhaps they should consider that their responses we see are the very reason the LNP is hurling toward electoral extinction

    They are not a reasoned alternative view

    Hence irrelevant

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