Something I really should have noted in last week’s post is that the Australian Electoral Commission has now published two-candidate preferred preference flow data from the election, showing how minor party and independent preferences flowed between Labor and the Coalition. The table below shows how Labor’s share increased for the four biggest minor parties and independents collectively (and also its fraction decrease for “others”) from the last election to this and, in the final column, how much difference each made to Labor’s total share of two-party preferred, which was 52.13%.
Note that the third column compares how many preference Labor received with how many they would have if preference flows had been last time, which is not the same thing as how many preferences they received. Labor in fact got nearly 2% more two-party vote share in the form of Greens preferences at this election because the Greens primary vote was nearly 2% higher this time.
State and territory by-election:
• Six candidates for the August 20 by-election in the Northern Territory seat of Fannie Bay, in ballot paper order: Brent Potter, described in a report as a “government adviser, army veteran and father of four”, for Labor; independent George Mamouzellos; independent Raj Samson Rajwin, who was a Senate candidate for the United Australia Party; Jonathan Parry of the Greens; independent Leah Potter; and Ben Hosking, “small business owner and former police officer”, for the Country Liberals.
• Following the resignation of Labor member Jo Siejka, a by-election will be held for the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Pembroke on September 10. Siejka defeated a Liberal candidate by 8.65% to win the eastern Hobart seat at the periodic election in 2019. There will also be a recount of 2021 election ballots in Franklin to determine which of the three unelected Liberals will replace Jacquie Petrusma following her resignation announcement a fortnight ago. As Kevin Bonham explains, the order of probability runs Bec Enders, Dean Young and James Walker.
• Still no sign of a date for Western Australia’s North West Central by-election.
Boerwar:
Friday, August 5, 2022 at 3:41 pm
[‘Mavis
I have no problem with testing the validity of the claim. I do have a serious problem with an inadequately resourced system that, regardless of the validity of the claim, delivers additional stress and anxiety.’]
No argument there. The trick of submitting a DVA claim is to get right from the outset. The legislation governing claims can be complex to a novice. That said, many former Vets train to act as experts in the field, guiding people through the process, and from what I’ve heard they do a very good job. But given the backlog of claims, it does appear that the problem is a paucity of public servants assessing claims. I look forward to the recommendations of the RC, which may serve to alleviate the problem. From a political perspective, I think the Tories think they’ve bagged the Veteran vote; I’m not so sure.
_____________________________________________
Rex Douglas:
Friday, August 5, 2022 at 6:30 pm
[‘Who could forget Wongs tantrum after debating Birmingham where she refused to shake his hand !
Now she’s chucked wobbly and stormed out of regional foreign ministers meeting.
Australia needs a calm head as FM.’]
Please stop it! I hesitate to suggest it, but I think you’re being deliberately provocative – Wong, as calm as a cucumber, walking out of Lavrov’s address, entirely warranted.
”
C@tmommasays:
Friday, August 5, 2022 at 6:24 pm
Boerwar @ #209 Friday, August 5th, 2022 – 6:09 pm
Rex Dutton morphs seamlessly into Rex Lavrov.
You have to wonder why Rex Douglas, or as he puts it, ‘the character Rex Douglas’, has morphed at warp speed into the one commenter determined to spread disinformation about the federal Labor government?
”
Because ALP has majority government, which is not to his liking and considerable Cross bench is not influencing the ALP as much as he thought to make decisions regarding climate change to the detriment of ALP.
It looks like his fantasy that ALP would be sharing government with Teals and Greens after election not realised is hurting him badly. 🙂
‘Senator Kyrsten Sinema, Democrat of Arizona, announced on Thursday evening that she would support moving forward with her party’s climate, tax and health care package .. To win Sinema’s support, Democratic leaders agreed to drop a $14 billion tax increase on some wealthy hedge fund managers and private equity executives that she had opposed and change the structure of a 15 percent minimum tax on corporations’
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/04/us/politics/sinema-inflation-reduction-act.html
I reckon she’s gone for all money when the 2024 Democratic primary rolls round in Arizona
‘By obsessing over immigration, the Conservatives are chasing phantom voters .. It’s outdated to think election campaigns can be won by demonising refugees’
Fear and dislike of “the Other” seems to be part of the mix of psychological factors that attract people to the political Right.
This is funny, an opinion piece by the partner of a very high profile rooster turned irrelevant feather duster.
The Teal Independents won their seats because the voters in those seats did not want to be represented by cyphers for an ugly, strident, corrupt and incompetent right wing regime.
EDIT: and they had a chance to help eject said regime.
Teal independents are about to realise their own irrelevance. They are the second spare tyre in the car, because Labor has numbers. Actually, they’re eight spare tyres, writes Vikki Campion.
(Murdoch tabloids)
______
And what, dare I ask, does that make her slob of a partner?
“ Teal independents are about to realise their own irrelevance. They are the second spare tyre in the car, because Labor has numbers. Actually, they’re eight spare tyres, writes Vikki Campion.
(Murdoch tabloids)”
Suck shit campion. Suck shit Beetroot. Suck shit Murdoch. Suck shit every carpetbagger that has cleaved to the 80 year old marketing scam that is the Liberal party and the Coalition.
Far from being irrelevant, so long as the Teals exist as a thing, there is simply no viable pathway back to government for the Spivs, ever. So long as Labor continues to govern from the centre that is.
BK
And what possessed her to be with him.
Surely she could have done better than that.
Lol!
BK:
Friday, August 5, 2022 at 8:06 pm
[‘And what, dare I ask, make her slob of a partner?’]
The eye of beauty is vested in the beholder; to that end, Campion appears to be a poor judge of character.
Pepys.
We won’t be waiting long to see if the Senate bill gets up:
‘Per C-Span, the Senate will convene on noon on Saturday to to take a vote to bring the Inflation Reduction Act (the Schumer-Manchin Deal on taxes, climate and health care) to the Senate Floor as a Budget Reconciliation Bill. The vote on Saturday to begin 20 hours of debate (equally divided between the two sides) which will be followed by a Vote-A-Rama on Sunday on multiple amendments with a possible vote on a final Bill on Monday morning. All votes will only require a simple majority (50+VP)’
(From Daily Kos)
If any PB engineers could provide some advice, I would be most grateful.
We have a Corolla Hybrid. Does anyone know what depth of water the car can drive through without causing potential damage to the electric motor?
Yesterday Canberra had some torrential rainfall, resulting in numerous large puddles on roads. Late yesterday afternoon we came across a dip in a quiet side road that had a small lake about 20m long. I stopped and observed that a car driving through the water was submerged to about the bottom of the doors. Being extra cautious I decided not to risk driving through the water and went another way.
Was I being too cautious? In previous cars I have driven through deeper still water than this (never moving water).
Teslas have ‘boat mode’. Better in deep water than ICE cars. Not sure about Corollas though.
Unlike nath, Bill doesn’t hold grudges. Be like Bill…
Victoria wonders why Ms Campion chose to be with Beetroot.
I have no idea but she was in his employ and ended up with a bun in the oven. Perhaps also his salary and assets are an attraction. She will certainly outlive him.
BK:
Friday, August 5, 2022 at 8:06 pm
[‘And what, dare I ask, make her slob of a partner?’]
The eye of beauty is vested in the beholder; to said end, Campion appears to be a poor judge of beauty. I mean, did she not see her good-looking, slim, flushed beau asleep on the Opposition benches the other day, who looked like he had a long lunch in the members’ bar? Perhaps it is love?
Pepys.
Granny Annysays:
Friday, August 5, 2022 at 8:32 pm
Victoria wonders why Ms Campion chose to be with Beetroot.
I have no idea but she was in his employ and ended up with a bun in the oven. Perhaps also his salary and assets are an attraction. She will certainly outlive him.
—————————————
I recall she was also the recipient of nepotism employment at the time.
The tendency to repeat oneself is indicative.
Ven @ #251 Friday, August 5th, 2022 – 7:45 pm
That sounds very logical, Ven.
nath @ #260 Friday, August 5th, 2022 – 8:28 pm
They do not. They have a viral video of some Tesla cars driving through deep water.
That much is true though.
The Age 05/08
Real wages could drop to levels last seen in 2009, forcing households to cut spending to make ends meet, as new forecasts flag high inflation and rising interest rates over the next two years.
_____________________
Jesus 13 years ago. Back when Swan was Treasurer. Meanwhile we currently have a Treasurer still on his L plates.
But anyway, you can’t say we weren’t warned and it’s what the country voted for.
Boat mode is unofficial but often spoken about. Now Submarine mode is official:
A hidden option allows you to change the Model S display into James Bond’s Lotus Esprit submersible. When you hold your hand on the Tesla logo at the top of the 17-inch screen, a technician login menu appears, the code is ‘007’ (obviously) and your suspension settings page transforms into the Lotus Esprit submarine.
nath
A hidden option allows you to change the Model S display into James Bond’s Lotus Esprit submersible. When you hold your hand on the Tesla logo at the top of the 17-inch screen, a technician login menu appears, the code is ‘007’ (obviously) and your suspension settings page transforms into the Lotus Esprit submarine.
——————————————-
More wikipedia crap on a politics blog.
At least Medi sub yourself!
wonder whiy the media arnt calling to cick out perretetts nsw governmetn as it is the most cerrupt in history yet kate mclimont only seems to be interested in a decades old story abbout mclimont has the so called investagative jernalist evencovered any liberal party scandles she is now abbout as credable as sharee marksim if 9 had any credability they would sack mackenzey who isslightly better and mclimont and imploy a real investagive jernalist likeann davies who left mclimont is nothing but a liberal mouth peasee
the media distroyed kenearley on the fact that roosendaile gave her preselection but forgett the fact that our worst labor premier moris emma was the closist premier to tripodi and obead and nathen rease was also picked buy there numbers but the sexist naritive that kenearley as a woman was the pupit of 2 men unfortunatily rease is to blame resulted in a liberal winning fowler maybi fairfield cowncil needs to be investigated
Things still falling out from the 2018 crows camp. Might even be heating up with another player making a statement and a prominent lawyer talking up class action. totally beside the point, the lawyer has a close relationship with the Adelaide United Reds.
Well cat if you have an other reason compelling reason whiy a us speaker with litle foreign policy work would randimly viset tiwon out off the blew in stead of letting blinken who is secretary off state thenseems likely she iva wants to become president or replace blinken as secretary off state the current president bidon is 79 and trump is 78 plus some speculation is saying pilosie could be interested in a run broardining her apeel from being a progresive liberal to
there is no reason whiy she should be in tiwon other then to anoy chinaun neceserely she is not a part of the administration not a foreign policy advisor just us speaker it would be like chuck shummer senate leader going on a major foreign policy viset
Andrew_Earlwood:
Friday, August 5, 2022 at 8:12 pm
[‘Far from being irrelevant, so long as the Teals exist as a thing, there is simply no viable pathway back to government for the Spivs, ever. So long as Labor continues to govern from the centre that is.’]
Insomnia’s a bastard. I do however agree with your critique. I think that what’s occurring now could well replicate the Hawke/Keating period. The difference is that Albanese doesn’t share the perceived arrogance of the latter. Dutton must be scratching his locks. I’ll give him around 12 months.
still think it could be unlikely shill win but evry body dismised trump and he won i dont think she is going to tiwon other to achieve a more senyor position who else do the democrats have other then bidon newson its unusual foor a senyor leader in congress to make a major other seas viset ususualy kurt cambpell who is suposed to be the relavent oficial or blinken would have went
personaly i think it was un nesesery and designed toprevojke china to cover foor us dominient s in decline as a show off strength to full aspi and the defence establishment who do not acsept that america is in decline and is no longer the only supper power on wong do not think its a problim she has a temper lavrol should be not allowed tobe treated like a normal foreign minister as his country commited war crimes with illegal invation of ucrane plus we need a fm who is strong in stead of a weak one such as marise payne
It is a politics blog? Really?
You mean this isn’t the Ripping Yarn blog?
Having read some of Vikki Campion’s articles, Choosing Barnaby is not even close to the dumbest thought she has had. Can you imagine some of the pearls of wisdom she would have come up with when she was an advisor
Perhaps the point in Pelosi going to Taiwan was to make a strong statement by the US while leaving Biden with a safety valve because she is not a member of the executive government.
Worked quite well in getting Xi to blow off steam while looking a bit ridiculous and robbing him of any excuse to do anything too stupid.
Also makes him look weaker internally in China as his re-election approaches and raises the possibility that they might ditch him.
Just a thought. Somebody familiar with Sun Tzu might be able to comment.
Silly stuff from Pelosi. Grand standing for no substantive reason. More harm to the Taiwanese cause
Aaron Newton. McClymont is obsessed. She has nothing else. She was reliant on leaks from ICAC. That seems to have eased off a little in recent years given the controversy about it and the role of ICAC. 9 do not seem to be their mouthpiece anymore. Hence McClymont just writes the same old stuff gloating.
But must disagree with you about KK. Been an electoral liability for years.
Perhaps an opera blog, Jan 6 – to wit: on with the motley:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JurIFKoI2ko
Or perhaps this Handel aria, with only piano accompaniment:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=39yb9jUsGm8
I trust you won’t go too mental?
Yes, yes. Let’s all appease China just like we appeased Russia. No way that can backfire.
Taylormade ” But anyway, you can’t say we weren’t warned and it’s what the country voted for.”
To cleanse the multiple Augean Stables, some boobytrapped, left behind by the corrupt and massively incompetent right-wing regime that the voters of Australia rejected.
Rishi Sunak boasted of taking money from “deprived urban areas” to help wealthy towns .. A leaked video shows the former chancellor saying that Labour “shoved all the funding into deprived urban areas” and that “needed to be undone”
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/conservatives/2022/08/exclusive-rishi-sunak-taking-money-deprived-urban-areas
@Taylormade: It takes more than 3 months to clean up after 9 years of massive Coalition incompetence, corruption and general ordure. Who’d have thought?
Strange piece by Campion.
Considering the teals and the Greens have moved amendments that have been accepted by Labor and passed by the House they are already much more relevant than either of the Coalition parties in this Parliament.
Re Barnaby, he was Deputy Prime Minister of Australia, a powerful man. Power is a well-known has aphrodisiac.
Perfect for Swans
Go past Melbourne to third on Sunday when we flog North.
Burst Collingwood’s bubble next week on the way to second and only the chokers left above us.
Barney in current location: ”… and passed by the House they are already much more relevant than either of the Coalition parties in this Parliament.”
That is a great point.
shellbell says:
Burst Collingwood’s bubble next week
_________
Sounds like a plan. Only one problem:
Collingwood vs Sydney Head to Head
143 / 85
“ Yes, yes. Let’s all appease China just like we appeased Russia. No way that can backfire.”
a r – your brain is broke. You must have caught a case of the WarC@t red mist.
In between ‘appeasement’ and Pelosi’s stunting is a world of sensible options.
What astonishes me is the extent to which ‘Merica is prepared to use 25 million people in Taiwan as frontline pawns with its delusions. If there was a genuine concern for the continued rights and liberties of the Taiwanese then the Americans wold do just about the opposite of what they have been up to. Biden is largely to blame. The rot set in a decade ago when he was VEEP.
The French have produced quite a number of quality philosophers, arguably the most prominent, the essitentialist, Camus: “There’s no real meaning to life; whatever you’re doing that prevents you from killing yourself. All other questions follow from that.” I’m no philosopher but posting on here assists.
One problem with Taiwan is that both Taiwan and China believe Taiwan is a part of China.
Where they traditionally differ is which of them should be the Government.
Until the early 70s the world recognised Taiwan, since then it has changed to the mainland.
Andrew_Earlwood:
Friday, August 5, 2022 at 11:15 pm
[‘a r – your brain is broke. You must have caught a case of the WarC@t red mist.’]
Do you feel better by putting other posters down? This is not a courtroom.
Please wake up to yourself by being courteous.
“ One problem with Taiwan is that both Taiwan and China believe Taiwan is a part of China.
Where they traditionally differ is which of them should be the Government.
Until the early 70s the world recognised Taiwan, since then it has changed to the mainland.”
Some pop journalists – and a few folk in the present government of Taiwan – like to imagine Taiwan as an independent nation state, but the constitution of Taiwan actually pretends that the state IS the whole of china. ‘One China’ is a fable that everybody has been happy to agree to for decades.
America is deliberately attempting to upset the apple cart to ‘counter China’. Xi for his part, has his own ‘manifest destiny’ delusions.
The best way for america to avoid this becoming a bloody mess and potentially mass carnage on an unimaginable scale is to eschew all the silly provocation games and get down to brass tacks. Here are some salient facts:
Since the 70s America has only been ‘playing’ with Taiwanese self defence capabilities, for fear of antagonising the ChiComms – who they were very happy to work with as a source of cheap manufacturing labour. As a consequence Taiwan really doesn’t have the self defence heft that it should. Watching some Taiwanese military exercises on ABC TV this week, its clear that even the Taiwanese see themselves as a military joke. Moreover, much of the population do not seem to be taking the present escalation of tensions seriously.
Instead of deliberately amping tensions to ‘counter China’, America would be much better served by quietly yet resolutely increasing Taiwan’s self defence capabilities to the point where – what is presently a difficult task – to invade and/or blockade Taiwan – becomes the impossible. Beyond that, running silent on the vexed question of whether America would engage directly with the ChiComms in any kinetic war – ie. maintaining the policy of strategic ambiguity – also serves an important purpose: it keeps the ChiComms guessing and in two minds. That in turn weakens the hands of the war hawks in Beijing, whereas at the moment ‘counter China’ via freedumbs of navigation and other such malarkey, effectively gives them carte blanche.