Something I really should have noted in last week’s post is that the Australian Electoral Commission has now published two-candidate preferred preference flow data from the election, showing how minor party and independent preferences flowed between Labor and the Coalition. The table below shows how Labor’s share increased for the four biggest minor parties and independents collectively (and also its fraction decrease for “others”) from the last election to this and, in the final column, how much difference each made to Labor’s total share of two-party preferred, which was 52.13%.
Note that the third column compares how many preference Labor received with how many they would have if preference flows had been last time, which is not the same thing as how many preferences they received. Labor in fact got nearly 2% more two-party vote share in the form of Greens preferences at this election because the Greens primary vote was nearly 2% higher this time.
State and territory by-election:
• Six candidates for the August 20 by-election in the Northern Territory seat of Fannie Bay, in ballot paper order: Brent Potter, described in a report as a “government adviser, army veteran and father of four”, for Labor; independent George Mamouzellos; independent Raj Samson Rajwin, who was a Senate candidate for the United Australia Party; Jonathan Parry of the Greens; independent Leah Potter; and Ben Hosking, “small business owner and former police officer”, for the Country Liberals.
• Following the resignation of Labor member Jo Siejka, a by-election will be held for the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Pembroke on September 10. Siejka defeated a Liberal candidate by 8.65% to win the eastern Hobart seat at the periodic election in 2019. There will also be a recount of 2021 election ballots in Franklin to determine which of the three unelected Liberals will replace Jacquie Petrusma following her resignation announcement a fortnight ago. As Kevin Bonham explains, the order of probability runs Bec Enders, Dean Young and James Walker.
• Still no sign of a date for Western Australia’s North West Central by-election.
An early good morning all. Thanks for this discussion of preference flows William. It confirms my perception handing out HTVs on the day in Sturt that there were a high percentage of people who took Labor HTVs who also took Greens HTVs and vice versa. I wish those here who seem to make careers out of the “lettuce wars” would take note. Albanese and Bandt have been more pragmatic inside parliament, fortunately for the nation.
“ Pauline Hanson has announced she will spearhead the ‘no’ campaign against implementing an Indigenous voice to federal parliament, after claiming it will to apartheid in Australia.”
This is good news for the YES campaign. I can’t imagine anybody less credible or competent to stuff up a campaign these days than Hanson. As a devout racist she sings only to her tiny choir. She’ll be a disaster outside Qld.
Paywalled
https://www.couriermail.com.au/
The situation in the Taiwan Straight and Phillipine Sea is very dangerous. The “livefire drills” are seeing missiles land not only inside Taiwanese territorial waters but inside territorial waters of nearby Japanese islands as well. Those are defended by Japanese forces so this could escalate very fast.
A map of the Chinese declared fire zones shows that they encircle Taiwan and effectively blockade its largest ports. Despite talk of invasions a naval blockade of Taiwan is probably the easiest way for China to force Taiwan to surrender. Taiwan is only 35% self sufficient in food. They would run out of food in under a year without sea trade. This is why there is so much discussion in defence circles about being able to project (naval) power into the South China Sea. That would be needed to break such a blockade.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FZUNRGBWYAACPFX?format=jpg&name=large
“ The opposition has been left looking like a stranded asset on the climate issue, adrift from a pragmatic business community that wants to promote confidence. Anthony Albanese relished quoting what he described as “an alphabet soup” of business groups supporting “a vote for certainty”. He hit where it hurt when he taunted the opposition about “what the business community are saying about them in private”.
The Opposition positioned itself hopelessly on the bill regarding the 43% emissions target confirming everything voters thought about them on this issue at the election. They really do look out of touch with almost the entire Australian community, a look that will likely flow through to other issues.
https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-government-win-on-climate-legislation-leaves-opposition-looking-like-a-stranded-asset-188231
Socrates
These are intemperate and imprudent actions by Xi. In effect, I sense that short of actually launching a genuine attack (which I doubt) he looks and feels impotent. His actions though are high risk and will require those around the region exercise considerable restraint as he blows off steam.
Soc,
I wouldn’t get too far ahead of myself wrt China and Taiwan. Yes, the Chinese are angling in that direction but they had an opportunity presented to them with Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan but they didn’t even throw chaff at her plane or buzz it. Or so I can see from reports. That leads me to believe that they know what message America sent to them and, for now, they will abide by it. Even though the live fire exercise is meant to terrorise the Taiwanese.
Also, as far as the sea blockade is concerned it’s a lot harder to effectively do that to a whole island, unlike in Ukraine where the Russians just have to block off the entrance to the Black Sea. Not to mention that I’m sure nations that supply food to Taiwan could always choose to bring it in by cargo plane instead. More expensive, sure, but I don’t think the West would let China make Taiwan starve.
Cronus
Yes I agree. This could be Xi’s Putin moment. What country would scale back defensive efforts after the Taiwan Straits incident? He has thrown away international law, but also trust.
Cat
The live fire zones encircle Taiwan and block off both its major ports. They leave no major way in. Logistically a Berlin airlift type operation would be almost impossible. The population is five times greater and air distances to friendly nations airports much further. Xi has shown his hand. This is exactly how he would try to conquer Taiwan. He understands an invasion is too risky.
Also, Xi is likely putting on a demonstration for Chinese national eyes before his expected re-election as Supreme Panda later this year. 🙂
Xi needs something to take the focus away from the collapsing banking system. A tried and true method of distracting your people from their internal problems (i.e. Corruption and graft in the CCP) is to find an external bogey man.
I personally thing Pelosi’s trip was a mistake simply because it does give Xi something he can point to that moves the domestic focus to an external threat.
This article in The Guardian is very dispassionate and informative:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/04/china-taiwan-tensions-how-worried-should-we-be-about-military-conflict
Banking system, National Congress AND runaway COVID-19, Golden Smaug.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/08/05/preference-flows-and-by-elections-open-thread/#comment-3961610
… except may be that Greens Senator (Thorpe)?
Cauldron or wedge coming up.
One swallow does not a summer make but this is good news out of Ohio:
PPUSA
@PollProjectUSA
·
4h
POLL:
@CenterStreetPAC
/
@MomentiveAI
2022 #OHSen General Election
(D) Tim Ryan 49% (+11)
(R) J.D. Vance 38%
516 LV | 8/1-8-3
Cat
I agree Xi shows no signs of actually trying to force Taiwan to surrender now. The current “live fire drill” is for show, probably for the reasons you suggest. But I think Xi has gone too far, and revealed what his real strategy would be. For the reasons I listed I still think this is incredibly dangerous, risking an accidental war.
Soc,
If you read that Guardian article, as Golden Smaug said, Xi actually has too much on his plate right now to accidentally or otherwise fall into a war to take Taiwan. I think Nancy Pelosi’s visit this week has shown the true extent of China’s power and it’s not as great as we feared. Though it’s true China wants to get it done by 2049.
Every Shoutback Radio host, the world over, should absorb this message from the judge in the Alex Jones trial:
Jones’s wildly successful business model has been based on concocting outrageous lies and shouting them at the top of his lungs to millions of listeners. But that does not work so well, it turns out, in a court of law.
“You are already under oath to tell the truth,” Judge Maya Guerra Gamble admonished him. “You’ve already violated that oath twice today. … Just because you claim to think something is true does not make it true. It does not protect you. It is not allowed. You’re under oath. That means things must actually be true when you say them.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/08/04/alex-jones-lawsuit-perjury-consequences/
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
Emissions bill was a win for the ALP, writes David Crowe, but he says the outlook remains politically inclement.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/emissions-bill-a-win-for-alp-but-outlook-remains-politically-inclement-20220804-p5b76c.html
Albanese has outflanked both the left and the right in a climate win, writes Phil Coorey who says that the Greens walked away with the political equivalent of beads and blankets.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/albanese-outflanks-both-left-and-right-in-climate-win-20220804-p5b75n
Michelle Grattan reckons the government win on climate legislation leaves opposition looking like a stranded asset on the climate issue, adrift from a pragmatic business community that wants to promote confidence.
https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-government-win-on-climate-legislation-leaves-opposition-looking-like-a-stranded-asset-188231
Tony Wright contrasts the reactions of the governments after their legislation to scrap the “carbon tax” and to mandate a 43% emissions reduction by 2030.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/the-day-the-climate-changed-and-the-glee-club-went-missing-20220804-p5b7as.html
Labor can celebrate an important victory with the 43 per cent legislation. But that was the easy part. What comes next will test the government to its core, writes Jacob Greber.
https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/labor-s-diabolically-difficult-journey-to-43pc-only-just-started-20220804-p5b78e
Alexandra Smith tells us how it’s looking worse for Ayres after yesterday’s inquiry hearing.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/for-discussion-with-minister-new-email-further-links-ayres-to-barilaro-appointment-20220804-p5b7bu.html
Annika Smethurst writes on why recent scandals call into question Matthew Guy’s political judgment.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/scandals-call-into-question-guy-s-political-judgment-20220804-p5b76m.html
Resilience NSW boss Shane Fitzsimmons would be dumped and the disaster agency dramatically scaled down under a key recommendation of the state government’s long-awaited flood inquiry report, explain Lucy Cormack and Alexandra Smith.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/resilience-nsw-boss-to-be-dumped-agency-scaled-down-under-key-recommendation-of-flood-inquiry-report-20220804-p5b7bz.html
Australia’s economy is set to grow slower than it ever has outside of recession. This is bad news for our standard of living, explains Greg Jericho.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2022/aug/04/australias-economy-is-set-to-grow-slower-than-it-ever-has-outside-of-recession-this-is-bad-news-for-our-standard-of-living
Businesses and consumers are bearing the brunt of “obsolete” tariffs that will cost more to collect than they raise as Australia strikes new free trade deals, a review of the system has found. Shane Wright reports that Productivity Commission research that puts pressure on the federal government to consider axing all remaining tariffs found the broad economic cost of collecting $1 in tariffs is likely to climb from between 57¢ and $1.59 today to almost $5.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/tariffs-to-cost-more-to-collect-than-the-revenue-they-raise-productivity-commission-20220804-p5b78m.html
The SMH editorial says that nuclear subs must be included in the announced review of defence spending.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/nuclear-subs-must-be-included-in-review-of-defence-spending-20220804-p5b7dv.html
Jack the Insider in this contribution where he says the Greens will be the biggest threat to reconciliation, begins with, “What do senators Pauline Hanson and Lidia Thorpe have in common? Not a lot it would seem although both routinely engage in haughty displays, dog-and-pony shows in the Senate chamber. But there is one issue that unites them. They are both opposed to the constitutional recognition of First Australians.”
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/the-greens-are-the-biggest-threat-to-reconciliation/news-story/d0f0c31665c793da27274490ec8469c9
The striking evidence of politicisation of public services in Queensland, NSW and Victoria, after the evidence about the Commonwealth, demonstrates that the problem is pervasive across Australian jurisdictions and is not restricted to one side of politics, writes Andrew Podger about the politicisation in Australia – a problem that crosses jurisdictions and parties
https://johnmenadue.com/politicisation-in-australia-a-problem-that-crosses-jurisdictions-and-parties/
According to Rob Harris, Britain is facing a lengthy recession and the worst decline in living standards for a generation after the Bank of England raised interest rates sharply and forecast that inflation would hit 13 per cent by Christmas.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/hard-times-uk-faces-15-month-recession-and-biggest-drop-in-living-standards-in-60-years-20220805-p5b7g5.html
After CMO Paul Kelly recently likened COVID deaths to “reaping”, disabled woman Siobhan Simper says she feels let down and urges State and Federal Governments to reconsider their current approach to COVID.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/chief-medical-officers-covid-comment-leaves-the-vulnerable-gasping,16625
A Federal Police warning to the Coalition government over the conduct of one of its MPs was kept secret until it was too late for his constituents, writes Rex Patrick who says that, whatever Mr Christensen’s activities in South-East Asia were (and it’s probably best to steer clear of that topic), the battle over access to the AFP’s correspondence relating to the matter has been helpful in showing the public how moribund our FOI regime is.
https://michaelwest.com.au/a-reluctant-thank-you-mr-christensen-what-we-learnt-about-a-travelling-mp/
Caroline Bouvier Kennedy’s arrival as America’s ambassador in Canberra has thrilled Australians who think of her as American royalty. However, her appointment is small comfort for those Australians concerned about the future of the country’s alliance with the USA, writes Alan Patience.
https://johnmenadue.com/can-australia-become-a-confident-independent-country/
Lucy Carroll reports that the King’s School has been forced to explain planned spending on a plunge pool for the headmaster’s residence and business-class flights for senior staff to attend a prestigious British rowing regatta. But what can be done about it?
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/king-s-school-forced-to-explain-spending-on-plunge-pool-flights-to-british-regatta-20220804-p5b77b.html
The sudden closure of the Colmont School in Melbourne’s north sent a shockwave through the school’s community, but it likely won’t be the last private school on the chopping block as budgets tighten and funds redirect to a sector with higher returns, writes Adam Voigt.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/private-schools-under-pressure-as-luxuries-the-first-to-go-in-tough-times-20220804-p5b74q.html
The Age’s editorial says that the territories deserve a say on legalising voluntary euthanasia and it calls for the passing of the bill that would allow it.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/territories-deserve-say-on-legalising-voluntary-euthanasia-20220802-p5b6hy.html
More from Luke Henriques-Gomes on Workforce Australia. He tells us about a jobseeker who has questioned why her Workforce Australia provider made her complete an online personality test that asked how well she expressed love, whether she gives into temptation, and which judged if “spirituality” and “zest” were among her strengths.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/aug/05/workforce-australia-provider-makes-jobseeker-complete-personality-tests-assessing-zest-and-spirituality
Elizabeth Knight tells us that one of the major investment banks has broken formation with the financial pack and questioned whether this year’s earnings bounce for Qantas will be as robust as investors are expecting while highlighting the airline’s poor record around on-time performance and flight cancellations.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/breaking-formation-why-one-major-investment-bank-thinks-qantas-can-t-outrun-poor-service-20220804-p5b79x.html
David Estcourt reports that lawyers of a father suing over the alleged abuse of his son say the church’s interpretation of legislation could extinguish legal entitlements of families if a victim dies.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/catholic-church-says-family-members-not-included-in-victim-laws-20220804-p5b768.html
Time is running out. The Department of Justice must indict and convict Trump, declare Laurence H Tribe and Dennis Aftergut.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/aug/04/justice-department-must-indict-and-convict-trump
The legal team representing Infowars founder Alex Jones inadvertently sent the contents of his cellphone to a lawyer representing the parents of a child killed in the Sandy Hook mass shooting, the parents’ lawyer said in court Wednesday. The despicable Jones is squirming.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/you-know-what-perjury-is-right-alex-jones-attorneys-accidentally-send-sandy-hook-plaintiffs-his-phone-contents-20220804-p5b74z.html
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe
Andrew Dyson
Matt Golding
Cathy Wilcox
John Shakespeare
Jim Pavlidis
Fiona Katauskas
Glen Le Lievre
Mark Knight
Spooner
From the US
“Scandals call into question Guy’s political judgment”: this would have to be one of those rare occasions when, rather than over egging it, the headline to an opinion piece – by Annika Smethurst today – barely rises to the level of the bleeding obvious. Both the Age and the ABC have been going in hard on Guy this week day after day – to the extent that, if a Labor politician were involved, there would be squealing about media bias from some. I think their coverage of Guy is very appropriate.
I noticed the Hun the other day in the supermarket, the day after the revelations. There was a one column piece with a tiny anodyne headline about the story. Now there’s media bias.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/scandals-call-into-question-guy-s-political-judgment-20220804-p5b76m.html
Thanks BK
‘Sinema wants changes to the Inflation Reduction Act but so far they’re not dealbreakers?’
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/8/4/2114537/-Sinema-wants-changes-to-the-Inflation-Reduction-Act-but-so-far-they-re-not-dealbreakers
David Crowe outlines what may be another area of productive discussion between the government and The Greens:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/emissions-bill-a-win-for-alp-but-outlook-remains-politically-inclement-20220804-p5b76c.html
Hopefully, toot sweet.
‘UK Energy Price Cap Estimate Tops £4,000 for the First Time’
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-04/uk-energy-price-cap-estimate-tops-4-000-for-the-first-time
Alex Jones must pay Sandy Hook family at least $4 million — number expected to rise tomorrow
InfoWars conspiracy theorist Alex Jones was ordered by a Texas jury to pay $4 million in compensatory damages for defaming Sandy Hook parents Scarlett Lewis and Neil Heslin.
On Friday, the jury will discuss the amount of punitive damages, which is designed to punish Jones to prevent further harm.
The case in Austin, Texas, was the first of the defamation cases against Jones to reach the damages phase.
Amnesty International UK
Press Release
Ukraine: military endangering civilians by locating forces in residential areas – new research
https://www.amnesty.org.uk/press-releases/ukraine-military-endangering-civilians-locating-forces-residential-areas-new
Thanks for the roundup BK. The Liberals consigned themselves to irrelevance yesterday. It will be interesting to see the next poll.
#WeatherinMountTorrens
Blustery
Cold
Wet
Shitty
Thanks, BK.
some sun
some cloud
9
scattered northerly breezes
sodden
80 mm yesterday
ae
I am curious.
Why do you do the pro-Russian feeds?
The Russians already routinely fire into residential areas.
From the Dawn Patrol
‘Jack the Insider in this contribution where he says the Greens will be the biggest threat to reconciliation, begins with, “What do senators Pauline Hanson and Lidia Thorpe have in common? Not a lot it would seem although both routinely engage in haughty displays, dog-and-pony shows in the Senate chamber. But there is one issue that unites them. They are both opposed to the constitutional recognition of First Australians.”
…’
——————————————-
Ouch. Jack Bells the Bandt cat on the Voice, Makarrata and the Treaty.
The Feds are going to have to force this and will have to take some political pain in so doing. The state governments, especially in Qld (Lab) and NSW (Coalition) have been malfeasants in this matter.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/aug/04/nothing-off-the-table-in-bid-to-deliver-250gl-of-water-for-murray-darling-labor-says
#weatheronPB
Tentative calls question the silence.
Melodies answer then fiercely escalate to proof.
Spring has joined the fight.
Boerwar @ #29 Friday, August 5th, 2022 – 8:20 am
Exactly. Two sides of the same ‘No’ coin. People can come on this blog and call us ‘racists’ for not supporting Lidia Thorpe but do they even realise who Lidia Thorpe will hurt by her actions? Her own people! I mean, how can we who support the ‘Yes’ vote be those ‘racists’ because we support enshrining recognition of this nation’s First Inhabitants in our Constitution and giving them the recognition and voice they deserve!?!
Sometimes things happen which leave you wondering, is there a god?
For your Lawyer to screw up so badly.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dKbAmNwbiMk
Peter Dutton seems to be positioning his team to blame everything that goes wrong in the power supply in coming years – every price increase, ever supply issue – on the 43% target.
Thanks for another one of your news round-ups, BK.
So appreciate this, my daily news fix.
Ray (UK) says:
Friday, August 5, 2022 at 8:03 am
‘UK Energy Price Cap Estimate Tops £4,000 for the First Time’
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-04/uk-energy-price-cap-estimate-tops-4-000-for-the-first-time
Yikes Ray, some of those figures coming out of the UK at the moment in relation to the energy cap and inflation are almost shocking.
Alfred Venison
“ Amnesty International UK
Press Release
Ukraine: military endangering civilians by locating forces in residential areas – new research
https://www.amnesty.org.uk/press-releases/ukraine-military-endangering-civilians-locating-forces-residential-areas-new”
This is a common tactic employed by most forces during warfare unfortunately (Russia have been doing this with ammunition dumps for months) but in any event, Russia is undertaking such complete destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure that I’m not sure how anybody could tell the difference in the results. Sometimes too logistic imperatives drive the sighting of sites in areas that place civilian at risk. Said from experience I might add.
How typical that an excellent candidate such as Ranjana Srivastava gets overlooked for a new line up of freak show exhibits in the Victorian Liberal preselections.
BK @ #25 Friday, August 5th, 2022 – 7:45 am
I am about to go out to Forest Range. I am sure it will be much nicer there.
C@tmomma @ 7:24
Hmm. Is religious faith allowed? Mine is a philosophical question.
“How typical that an excellent candidate such as Ranjana Srivastava gets overlooked for a new line up of freak show exhibits in the Victorian Liberal preselections.”
For all her impressive achievements, she’s a Lib: a willing participant in an 80 year old marketing scam. “Excellent candidate” = marketing scammer.
Who is following the news on Ukraine? I tuned out for a while and just noticed some odd looking news. Is something about to crack?
C@t please make your arguments without resort to racially fuelled tropes such as ‘Supreme Panda’. It does you no service and readers of this blog a great disservice to descend into those sort of comments.
Andrew_Earlwood says:
For all her impressive achievements, she’s a Lib: a willing participant in an 80 year old marketing scam. “Excellent candidate” = marketing scammer.
__________
huh?
“Supreme Panda” is a poke at Xi, not the Chinese people, just as “Orange Baboon” and similar are about Trump, not Americans.
Thank you BK.
Being careless or sleazy isn’t the same as being corrupt, but the delaying tactics by the AFP raises the question, what role does FOI play in exposing corruption and does FOI have a role supporting a federal ICAC?
Frednk @ #32 Friday, August 5th, 2022 – 8:41 am
Main takeaway is that camera lady is in deep trouble.
And before I go…. just a thought on the US. Silver is right, Democrats should not be excited by Dobbs increasing their midterm chances. They shouldnt be excited about the Jan6 hearings. They should be excited by an uptick in turnout or the good news in the Senate polling. They shouldnt be excited about the improvement in generic polling. And they shouldnt be excited by Trump aligned loonies winning primaries. They shouldnt be excited about possible changes in the latin0 vote. And the Kansas referendum will not necessarily translate more votes for the Democrats in red states.
But.
You put it all together… if the GOP stays the party of Trumpism the Democrats are in with a good shot of upsetting the midterm meme.
Someone asked about the coral grow back (not the right term) last night. Spooner’s cartoon (thank you BK) reminded me.
I don’t have the full answer, but I remember reading that the regrowth is by different species, known to be more fragile than those they replace. They are faster to colonise but also “weaker overall” (my term). There’s probably an analogy if I thought about it long enough, like replacing brick houses with straw houses, or something.
BK’s Dawn Patrol..
“The legal team representing Infowars founder Alex Jones inadvertently sent the contents of his cellphone to a lawyer representing the parents of a child killed in the Sandy Hook mass shooting, the parents’ lawyer said in court Wednesday. The despicable Jones is squirming.”
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/you-know-what-perjury-is-right-alex-jones-attorneys-accidentally-send-sandy-hook-plaintiffs-his-phone-contents-20220804-p5b74z.html
..surely candidate for ‘arsehole of the week’ ?
..nah, make that arsehole of the century!!..
Alex Jones is the paid clown. The bigger question is who are the puppetmasters and the financiers?
Even though the digitised phone records were supposedly inadvertently sent to plaintiffs lawyers. Jones’ lawyer had 10 days to claim privilege of those records.
They didnt bother doing that.
Why?