Something I really should have noted in last week’s post is that the Australian Electoral Commission has now published two-candidate preferred preference flow data from the election, showing how minor party and independent preferences flowed between Labor and the Coalition. The table below shows how Labor’s share increased for the four biggest minor parties and independents collectively (and also its fraction decrease for “others”) from the last election to this and, in the final column, how much difference each made to Labor’s total share of two-party preferred, which was 52.13%.
Note that the third column compares how many preference Labor received with how many they would have if preference flows had been last time, which is not the same thing as how many preferences they received. Labor in fact got nearly 2% more two-party vote share in the form of Greens preferences at this election because the Greens primary vote was nearly 2% higher this time.
State and territory by-election:
• Six candidates for the August 20 by-election in the Northern Territory seat of Fannie Bay, in ballot paper order: Brent Potter, described in a report as a “government adviser, army veteran and father of four”, for Labor; independent George Mamouzellos; independent Raj Samson Rajwin, who was a Senate candidate for the United Australia Party; Jonathan Parry of the Greens; independent Leah Potter; and Ben Hosking, “small business owner and former police officer”, for the Country Liberals.
• Following the resignation of Labor member Jo Siejka, a by-election will be held for the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Pembroke on September 10. Siejka defeated a Liberal candidate by 8.65% to win the eastern Hobart seat at the periodic election in 2019. There will also be a recount of 2021 election ballots in Franklin to determine which of the three unelected Liberals will replace Jacquie Petrusma following her resignation announcement a fortnight ago. As Kevin Bonham explains, the order of probability runs Bec Enders, Dean Young and James Walker.
• Still no sign of a date for Western Australia’s North West Central by-election.
Rowe
I wont be surprised if Alex Jones and Roger Stone did some co ordination with respect to jan 6 insurrection.
Wranslidesays:
Friday, August 5, 2022 at 9:16 am
C@t please make your arguments without resort to racially fuelled tropes such as ‘Supreme Panda’. It does you no service and readers of this blog a great disservice to descend into those sort of comments.
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+ 1
not sshore whiy us is making a deal with tiwonin ucrane right now nato did not even btother sending troops just weapons and is basickly leting ucranetoto rusia with out defending them but making a big deal abbout tiwon which usa does not even have diplomatick relaetions with
”Someone asked about the coral grow back (not the right term) last night. Spooner’s cartoon (thank you BK) reminded me.”
Maybe it’s a bit like when climate deniers declare climate change a hoax when a cold record occurs. The Reef grows in some places at some times when conditions are favourable. At other times and places it dies back. If nothing was happening with the climate, these would all balance out, as would advancing and retreating glaciers and hot and cold records. That is not what’s being observed.
Late Riser @ #29 Friday, August 5th, 2022 – 9:10 am
The word ‘faith’ literally means ‘irrational belief’. Those that claim ‘faith’ are, by their own definition, irrational. Irrational beliefs lead to those claiming to have ‘faith’ into using their family’s money to fund such travesties as the Margaret Court hate cult, the Roman Paedophile Protection Society’s vicious nastiness, and the local happy clapper parson’s new BMW station wagon.
Faith is a wonderful thing. Truly fantastic.
An earlier poster reasoned that Xi gained from China’s response to Pelosis visit to Taiwan. It occurred to me that had Pelosi put off her trip, Xi would have emerged stronger for the implication that he had pressured the Americans into doing so.
Therefore, realistically, Xi would score win-wins from either outcome. To suggest that Pelosi’s visit was a negative outcome for the US merely ignores any other political outcomes.
The fact that the Repugnants backed Pelosi’s visits has positive outcomes for Biden and other nations whose maritime trade with Taiwan is threatened.
Yes, in the dictatorship that is Xi’s China, he needs to continually work on protecting and promoting his power, and with power- plays within the CCP at home, he needs to promote the image of Reunification under his leadership. That is ever- present in Xi’s thoughts and actions.
Add to that,as pointed out by a poster elsewhere, Japan is also impacted by the PLANS tactics in the waters around Taiwan, bordering territorial waters as it does.
A rather simplistic view that it just comes down to scoring points for Xi ignores a host of other geo-political issues in my view.
So Dai Le abstains on the climate change legislation..who would have thought. I suspect that she will do the same on a federal ICAC which means that questions about her past could and will be raised and dirt leaked to the media. If I was her I would be very worried about the election of a Minns govt as there could well be an inquiry into Fairfield Council as sort of retribution against the local labor clans who threw their support behind Le ahead of the endorsed Labor Candidate.
WOW!
Big news from our man with the plan Chris Bowen. Offshore wind (Even for Tassie! I look forward to the green campaign against it). This is going to kill the coal industry.
Fantastic news!
The GBR is a zone of complex relationships. All the reef-forming corals need to host photosynthetic micr0-organisms which contribute to their metabolism. The corals may be massive, encrusting, tabular, or erect-branching (“staghorn”). The latter are particularly rapid growing, but the growing zone is short-lived, and the older parts of the branches soon become hollowed out by sponges, and form the homes of a multitude of other animals, such as worms and tiny crustaceans. Sponges, ascidians, soft corals and bryozoa take up residence, and add to the coherence of the system.
The branches then are liable to break up by wave or storm damage, but can regenerate from the living bits.
What is often left out in accounts is that the whole lot is held together by calcifying red algae, which are an indispensable part of the system. Each patch and depth of reef shows varying proportions of the main components.
Rapid growth of only the staghorn forms implies a system which is not in longterm stability.
I think this is the recent article I was reading on coral regrowth.
There are two separate issues. The regrowth species itself is less resilient, so the situation is weaker than it was, but the loss of diversity is a threat to the whole, which is now less resilient. I can think an extreme example, such as square kilometres of single species of healthy robust wheat suddenly exposed to a new virus. No-one is saying it’s quite like that. But diversity is resilience. The fact that the resurgence occurred at all is a mark of the former ecosystem’s diversity, which is now diminished further.
“… inquiry into Fairfield Council as sort of retribution against the local labor clans who threw their support behind Le ahead of the endorsed Labor Candidate”
Using an inquiry for retribution sounds like a matter for ICAC.
UK Cartoons:
Shellbell @ #62 Friday, August 5th, 2022 – 10:13 am
Any inqury will always take the road of “probity and financial” issues.
Remember what happened to Alburn Council after Salim Mehajer antics became a subject of MSM interest? I do…that council along with Holroyd ended up being abolished and new lga council was formed called Cumberland that took in the old Alburn and Holroyd Councils under the guise of “reform” Lets not forget that one of the southern boundaries of Cumberland Council is less than a KM away from the Fairfield CBD on the western side of the railway line bordering Prospect Ck
I’ve seen the detailed US net zero studies, and there is a lot lot lot of offshore wind.
So not surprised to see Bowen targeting the same here.
Big news from our man with the plan Chris Bowen. Offshore wind (Even for Tassie! I look forward to the green campaign against it). This is going to kill the coal industry.
_____________
And it will be the market that does it!
BK,
The market supported by strategic investment in networks. Plus some regulatory innovation around access arrangements.
This is what t looks like when government actually thinks about good policy!
Taylormade @ #54 Friday, August 5th, 2022 – 9:48 am
Goodness me! Some light humour upsets. 🙄
Offshore wind – makes a lot of sense. I wonder if the Coalition and their allies will suddenly become concerned about offshore ecosystems.
Dandy Murray-Honeydew @ #68 Friday, August 5th, 2022 – 10:31 am
PM Albanese picked the right guy for the job, that’s for sure. Chris’ dad once told me that, even when he is on ‘holiday’ at home, instead of relaxing by the pool and reading a good book, he will write a book!
Steve777 @ #70 Friday, August 5th, 2022 – 10:40 am
They were going to put giant underwater fans on the GBR to cool it down!
nathsays:
Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 10:06 pm
Dr John says:
On athletics I had a nice conversation with a shy Cathy Freeman in Coles recently.
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You are a shocking name dropper mate. Johnny Famechon and Cathy Freeman in one day.
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Nose ring
were you able to get to sleep following that conniption?
Steve777 @ #69 Friday, August 5th, 2022 – 10:40 am
Who will think of the penguins?
“The rapid growth in coral cover appears to have come at the expense of the diversity of coral on the reef, with most of the increases accounted for by fast-growing branching coral called Acropora.”
Yup. As an aside i was recently up in Coral Bay in W.A. for a work trip. In the bay is a famous spot the glass bottom boats go out to called Ayers rock.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/apr/21/death-fears-for-ancient-western-australian-coral-formation
Lot of dead coral up there this year from that last spawning event. 🙁 Its pretty localised. But, had some students in the water with a fluorometer, and cameras. Looks like NOT completely dead. 🙂 Hopefully we will have conditions (particularly temp) where it will recover over the next few years.
GBR recovering in any way is good news, but yup, there is a diversity / resilience thing going on here.
Acidification also affects diversity. Some interesting examples of natural examples.
https://www.bioacid.de/high-co2-reefs/?lang=en
Yup, have seen how that report on the GBR “recovering” is being used. Nuttertruckers have latched onto it. 🙁 The diversity / resilience thing, which i think is a huge issue is very often downplayed. % cover is not the only measure.
How long before the opposition develops a keen interest in species such as the Red Handfish in order to rail against offshore wind farms?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_handfish
2gb are unhappy matt kean appears to have the numbers to become liberal deputy leader there saying that if elliott does not get it the presenters will campaign against perrettet and help minns well given 2gbs success got rid of turnbull and championed the disasterous anti trans candadate cathrine deves ifthe mps liston to hadley and fordim nsw will end up like mathew guy who listond to much t o niel mitchel with trhe get andrews stratigy which failed
South
“ Big news from our man with the plan Chris Bowen. Offshore wind (Even for Tassie! I look forward to the green campaign against it). This is going to kill the coal industry.”
It is also a great option for replacing coal jobs with renewable energy jobs. One of the most prospective sites is in Bass Strait opposite the LaTrobe Valley. All the construction and support work could be done from the Valley, which would also become a great spot for a grid scale battery.
Former gas rig workers could do the maintenance.
elliott and morrison club must be hated managed to get in to a argument with keanmodderits and damian tuderhope hard right over trains and taxsies it appers allix hawke wants to help minns
imacca
During the prickly pear plague in Queensland they’d have been celebrating the ‘recovery’ of pastures from the drought.
imacca
During the prickly pear plague in Queensland they’d have been celebrating the ‘recovery’ of pastures from the drought.
Caption?
“Bugger. Now what?”
I had hoped that this morning the headlines would all say:
“Massive 89 to 55 yes vote”
A futile hope I know but that is the real message for the Greens and LNP.
The vote reflects where the electorate is at and they ignore it at their own peril.
Late Riser at 11:15 am
“Clueless”
Wow what PB revelations in less than a quarter of an hour.
I had never heard of a Red Handfish nor previously seen a picture of devastation by prickly pear!
Dr John
Here is said Red Handfish
What is Bob Carr up to here ? Paywalled article in The Australian. I take it he is serious else Mordor Media wouldn’t fly it on their flag ship. A nice little earner shilling for some group ?
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/for-a-big-idea-that-leads-opposition-to-power-go-nuclear/news-story/1aadc3ff1521c4182755d385e0a2c3c7
BKsays:
Friday, August 5, 2022 at 11:30 am
Dr John
Here is said Red Handfish –
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Barnaby Joyce down under!
Alfred Venison
“ Amnesty International UK
Press Release
Ukraine: military endangering civilians by locating forces in residential areas – new research
https://www.amnesty.org.uk/press-releases/ukraine-military-endangering-civilians-locating-forces-residential-areas-new”
As Russia is bombing everything to rubble it is hard to see how location makes any difference.
Not sure if this was commented on yesterday:
https://reneweconomy.com.au/ministers-to-put-environment-into-energy-market-objective-in-landmark-move-for-renewables/
poroti, Someone said there’d be another bus along soon?
p,
“Who’s up for a prayer session?”
Caption?
Where the * are we?!
Let’s get this over with
Wishing we weren’t here…
P
Caption?
————————————–
I originally thought it was another photo of prickly pear plague!
poroti @ #83 Friday, August 5th, 2022 – 11:20 am
Pale, Male and Stale.
Phylactella and others
Thanks for the posts on the Reef.
Poroti
“Caption?”
Twlight of the clods.
Great new tax idea from the Democrats in the US:
Under the new plan, Democrats now seek to impose a new tax on the money companies spend to purchase back their own stock, according to a Democratic aide familiar with the matter who requested anonymity to describe the measure. Party lawmakers long have taken issue with such practices, arguing they benefit large firms’ stock prices at the expense of workers and the economy at large.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2022/08/04/inflation-reduction-act-sinema/
Caption?
The Usual Suspects.
Or maybe….
