Preference flows and by-elections (open thread)

A look at preference flow data from the 2019 and 2022 elections, and the latest on looming by-elections in the Northern Territory, Tasmania and (sort of) Western Australia.

Something I really should have noted in last week’s post is that the Australian Electoral Commission has now published two-candidate preferred preference flow data from the election, showing how minor party and independent preferences flowed between Labor and the Coalition. The table below shows how Labor’s share increased for the four biggest minor parties and independents collectively (and also its fraction decrease for “others”) from the last election to this and, in the final column, how much difference each made to Labor’s total share of two-party preferred, which was 52.13%.

Note that the third column compares how many preference Labor received with how many they would have if preference flows had been last time, which is not the same thing as how many preferences they received. Labor in fact got nearly 2% more two-party vote share in the form of Greens preferences at this election because the Greens primary vote was nearly 2% higher this time.

State and territory by-election:

• Six candidates for the August 20 by-election in the Northern Territory seat of Fannie Bay, in ballot paper order: Brent Potter, described in a report as a “government adviser, army veteran and father of four”, for Labor; independent George Mamouzellos; independent Raj Samson Rajwin, who was a Senate candidate for the United Australia Party; Jonathan Parry of the Greens; independent Leah Potter; and Ben Hosking, “small business owner and former police officer”, for the Country Liberals.

• Following the resignation of Labor member Jo Siejka, a by-election will be held for the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Pembroke on September 10. Siejka defeated a Liberal candidate by 8.65% to win the eastern Hobart seat at the periodic election in 2019. There will also be a recount of 2021 election ballots in Franklin to determine which of the three unelected Liberals will replace Jacquie Petrusma following her resignation announcement a fortnight ago. As Kevin Bonham explains, the order of probability runs Bec Enders, Dean Young and James Walker.

• Still no sign of a date for Western Australia’s North West Central by-election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,594 comments on “Preference flows and by-elections (open thread)”

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  6. ok, good news that the Finnigans is still with us. 🙂

    Trump getting some sort of meaningful comeuppance would be great. 🙂 Repugs will spin and delay on his behalf of course, and conspiracy theories will have fodder for the next 50 years….but, hopefully, the US institutions that he tried so hard to neuter will bring the bastard down.

  8. Fulvio Sammut:

    Tuesday, August 9, 2022 at 7:37 pm

    [‘Geez, there’ll soon only be you and me left from the olden days Mavis.

    And I ain’t going nowhere …’]

    Neither am I though age is starting to catch up. I do recall that Frank, the finnigins, and Gusface were a force of nature after dark & into the wee hours. I can’t quite recall when they were relieved of their duties, but it must be around 13 years ago. My screen persona then was “Charlton”.

  9. marquelawyers @marquelawyers

    Say, on a constitutional reform proposal directly affecting Aboriginal people, you found yourself on the same side of the argument as Tony Abbott, Andrew Bolt and Pauline Hanson. This is not a thought experiment, but a self-resolving conundrum.

  10. I’ll keep out of the character appraisals but I reckon it wasn’t many years ago that blokes like Gusface were still posting.

  12. Until her death, I’d never heard of O. N-J referred to as Dame O. N-J. Now, most news outlets are referring to her thus. I wonder what she would’ve thought of it?

  13. Until her death, I’d never heard of O. N-J referred to as Dame O. N-J. Now, most news outlets are referring to her thus. I wonder what she would’ve thought of it?

    Ditto. From Wikipedia:

    Newton-John was appointed Officer of the Order of the British Empire (OBE) in the 1979 New Year Honours and Dame Commander of the Order of the British Empire (DBE) in the 2020 New Year Honours for services to charity, cancer research and entertainment.

  14. Olivia Newton-John was elevated to Dame Commander of the Order of the British Empire (DBE) in the 2020 New Years Honours List.

  16. Dr John:

    Tuesday, August 9, 2022 at 8:14 pm

    [‘I’ll keep out of the character appraisals but I reckon it wasn’t many years ago that blokes like Gusface were still posting.’]

    You’ve got me thinking now.

    ___________________________________________

    Jaeger, Steve:

    Thanks. I was thinking more in terms of whether she’d be okay with being referred to as a Dame. She seemed quite modest, almost humble to me.

  17. This may have been posted BUT…

    About 55 million light years from Earth, a colossal black hole about 1,000 times larger than the sun known as M87 is slowly consuming the universe.

    In New South Wales, there is John Barilaro, whose appointment to a New York trade role appears to be getting the job done much faster.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/aug/09/shitshow-over-john-barilaros-nyc-appointment-keeps-sucking-the-nsw-government-in

  18. Dr John at 8:14 pm

    I’ll keep out of the character appraisals but I reckon it wasn’t many years ago that blokes like Gusface were still posting.

    What timing re your mention of Gusface. I have just been looking at some old PB posts back from about 2009. Reading some of Frank’s posts. I had forgotten about Gusface but there he was along with Frank and Finnigans. All three I have to say were well behaved. Everyone was, ShowsOn even had the CAPS key off !

  21. Herald Sun 09/08
    It’s hard to fathom the sheer arrogance of a privileged multimillionaire lecturing an Indigenous woman on race relations. And, Peter FitzSimons did not just lecture Senator Jacinta Price over her position on the race-based referendum and Australia Day, but he also scolded her for daring to deviate from Leftist orthodoxy.
    ________________
    Ripper Rita coming off the long run.
    Good to see someone standing up to his bullying of female MP’s.
    Anyone heard from Grace? Surely she would tweeted something by now or do you have to be white and from the left for the sisters to take notice.

  22. Griff at 9:18 pm
    Yep. I looked at 2 blogs. The hot topic of one of them was over bloody Conroy’s ‘porn filter’ brain fart. The other was some time when Kevin07 and Labor had dropped off in popularity. I must have only looked at ‘day time’ pages as there was none of the notorious ‘after dark’ brawls. They made BK’s Dawn Patrol a feature for me in that when the Dawn Patrol was posted it marked when it was safe to raise your head above the parapet. The Bludger Lounge cleaners had been in, the broken glass had been swept up, the tables and chairs put upright and the blood sluiced off the walls 😆

  24. Frank went early 2012, Finnigans went after his prediction that Rudd would never return went unfulfilled and Gusface did an interview with Craig Thompson which even Peter Fitzsimons would have thought was a bit soft.

  26. Socrates at 9.04 am (and Tue 19 Jul 11.36 am, 12.18 pm and 12.41 pm; Bizarre pseph triangle pp 2-3)

    The West, as you say, should have realised that Putin was a problem “as far back as the Moscow apartment bombings in the 1990s”, i.e. September 1999. Correct, but that was already far too late, particularly since NATO had already incensed the Russian elite by illegally bombing Belgrade, and also the Chinese, as one of the buildings NATO bombed was the Chinese embassy. But it was far too late mainly because the rot had started much earlier under Yeltsin.

    A good account of the September 1999 bombings in Moscow (and Buynaksk and Volgodonsk) is at:

    https://www.nationalreview.com/2016/08/vladimir-putin-1999-russian-apartment-house-bombings-was-putin-responsible/

    The big problems in Russian politics, and in Western policy toward Russia, got much worse in the 1990s under Yeltsin, especially because of the disastrous economic policies pursued under Western influence. For one book, see Marshall Goldman, The Piratization of Russia, 2003, partly available at:

    https://www.google.com.au/books/edition/The_Piratization_of_Russia/6JB_AgAAQBAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&printsec=frontcover

    There is a very informative review, explaining how the oligarchs arose, by Yuri Maltsev, at:

    https://www.independent.org/pdf/tir/tir_10_3_09_maltsev.pdf

    You liked Russian and Soviet history. The best course ever taught on that subject in Australia was by Dr David Christian at Macquarie Uni. He later pioneered ‘Big History’ (the history of humanity in the context of the history of Earth) and he even got money from Bill Gates for a useful purpose, namely teaching such history in secondary schools, a remarkable outcome.

    The theme of David’s course on Russian and Soviet history was the entrenchment under the Tsars of a mafia state, its collapse in the revolutions of 1917, and its recreation in an extreme form under Stalin. It was an original course. The only problem was that it finished in 1956, when subterranean change in Soviet Russia was beginning again, as explained by Moshe Lewin in his various books. David has probably not taught the course now for many years, but in some ways (e.g. corruption) Putin epitomises the mafia state in Russian history most of all.

    For an appreciation of Lewin’s life and work by Ronald Suny, see:

    https://sci-hub.hkvisa.net/10.1093/hwj/dbs014

    For David Christian’s 2017 talk about the Russian revolution see:

    https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/bigideas/legacy-of-the-russian-revolution/9071788

    For his views on Big History:

    https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/nightlife/big-history-with-david-christian/9744730

    On Ukraine, you said “the 2022 invasion has practically exterminated any desire to be part of Russia within Ukraine.” Correct. Some older Russian-speaking Ukrainians in the east (the areas that Putin has mercilessly bombed) probably wish the USSR was never broken up at all, but not because they like Putin. Even more than Yeltsin, Putin has contributed more to the revival of Ukrainian nationalism than any other historical actor. Yeltsin was a drunken, rotten bastard President for Russia, because he oversaw chaos and then paved the way for Putin, but Yeltsin also gave Ukrainian nationalism a huge boost, second only to the boost from Putin.

    Whether future Ukrainian historians will criticise Ukrainian leaders in the past 30 years for not preparing adequately for Putin’s invasion will be interesting. As I’ve stressed, the prior turning point, before 24 February 2022, was 21 February 2014. A different outcome then could have meant Ukraine was better prepared for Putin’s full invasion. This applies most particularly to Crimea. The successful part of Putin’s invasion was the attack on Kherson from Crimea. If Ukrainian nationalists had not lost Crimea to Putin in 2014, Ukraine would have been in a much better position to resist Putin’s invasion. That is obvious from a map.

    On Russia, your historical points were mostly correct, apart from the Warsaw Pact. In the early years after WWII Stalin grabbed resources from eastern Europe (especially eastern Germany) but during the “years of stagnation” in the 1970s and early 1980s the USSR was subsidising its protectorates in eastern Europe. That was one reason, though not the main one, why Gorbachev and Shevardnadze decided to end the empire. Note the media (e.g. the French TV program on Merkel broadcast on ABC TV on 18 October 2021) often mistakenly talks of the “collapse of the Soviet empire”. In fact, it did not collapse, it was deliberately withdrawn.

    You said “the Ukraine war is going to be either an ongoing stalemate aka North vs South Korea, or withdrawal aka Afghanistan”. The Korean analogy is misplaced because the US and China were massively involved. How important was Afghanistan to Brezhnev, compared to eastern and southern Ukraine for Putin? Much less so. The Russian withdrawal from Kabul took many years, though not as long as the US withdrawal. The Ukraine war does not fit the Afghan analogy, partly because the costs for Putin of losing in Ukraine are so much greater.

    On the risk of escalation, you said “the sooner the west warns Putin and Russia of the consequences of escalation for Russia, the less likely it is to happen.” No, you have the cart before the horse there. The lesson of Plokhy’s book on the Cuban crisis, Nuclear Folly, is that avoiding escalation requires mutual effort and mutual learning, not one-sided warnings.

    On the Western viewpoints (EU, USA and allies) and India, I think you have the balance a bit off kilter. The east European countries by themselves are not enough to ensure Ukraine can push Putin back to the “status quo ante” (in Kissinger’s phrase). The US is crucial, but so is Germany. The Poles would not supply old planes to Ukraine without US permission. I hope the Germans can stay the course.

    On China’s view of Putin’s invasion see:

    https://www.bushcenter.org/catalyst/ukraine/lo-friendship-with-limits-china-russia.html

    There’s a fuller version of that essay by Bobo Lo, dated 25 May 2022, at the Lowy Institute.

    He writes: “Beijing may have been appalled by Putin’s invasion – not because of its disregard of international law, but because it demonstrated terrible judgment and harmed Chinese interests. However, such disapproval does not transcend the necessity of partnership in an increasingly challenging international environment.”

    There’s a thought for you, even courtesy of Dubya Bush’s legacy outfit. President Xi was “appalled” by Putin the strategic dunderhead. Why? Because, apart from the reasons that Dr Lo canvasses, the blunders Putin has made in trying to conquer Ukraine will have reinforced the scepticism that must exist among the top brass in the PLA about anyone’s crazy idea of trying to capture Taiwan by force.

  27. Q: COVID shots….Doesn’t seem to be any pattern or reason.

    Indeed…..for me it was….

    Pfizer (nothing), Pfizer (nothing), Pfizer (2 weeks in bed unable to move), Moderna (nothing)..

  28. Dr Doolittle @ Tuesday, August 9, 2022 at 9:59 pm

    Your final paragraph begs the question, to what extent does the risk of losing face by being allied with the ‘loser’ in the conflict affect China? How do these events affect machinations for the Congress in November? Does this result in compensatory activity with respect to Taiwan?

    As my better half said, China is currently serving “hot and sour soup” for our delectation.

  29. 1. Pfizer – sore arm (moderate); 1-2 days
    2. Pfizer – sore arm (minor); 1-2 days
    3. Moderna – fever, chills, general aches/pains, disturbed sleep, fatigue, sore arm, sore armpit; 3-4 days
    4. Pfizer – headache, sore arm, sore armpit; 1-2 days

    #5 will be a Moderna (unless someone has a variant-specific booster by then). Not looking forward to it.

  30. For those that missed it, here is a link to the interview Jacinta Price had with Peter Fitzsimons that has got Taylormade excited enough to copy and paste part of an article from Rita of the Herald Sun..

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/we-are-not-a-separate-entity-we-are-all-just-australians-senator-defends-her-opposition-to-the-voice-20220805-p5b7i9.html

    I can’t see anything in the interview that could possibly incite such hysteria about bullying.

    I mean how dare someone question the new darling of the Herald Sun, Jacinta Price?

    However, Rita & Taylormade managed to find something to make the quotes below.

    Taylormadesays:
    Tuesday, August 9, 2022 at 9:28 pm
    Herald Sun 09/08
    “It’s hard to fathom the sheer arrogance of a privileged multimillionaire lecturing an Indigenous woman on race relations. And, Peter FitzSimons did not just lecture Senator Jacinta Price over her position on the race-based referendum and Australia Day, but he also scolded her for daring to deviate from Leftist orthodoxy.
    ________________
    Ripper Rita coming off the long run.
    Good to see someone standing up to his bullying of female MP’s.
    Anyone heard from Grace? Surely she would tweeted something by now or do you have to be white and from the left for the sisters to take notice.”

  32. I’ll pay attention to Fitzsimmons vs Price when it appears in a reputable news outlet, not just the Liberal Party propaganda organs. It’s splashed across the front page of The Australian, billed as an “exclusive”. That means a drop from senior Opposition sources.

  33. AZ – no noticeable side effects
    AZ – no noticeable side effects
    Pfizer – mild fatigue for a few hours
    COVID – omicron – horrible, situation retrieved with the help of anti-virals – not looking forward to getting it again.

  34. ‘There have been explosions reported in Crimea. Specifically, a Russian airbase about 100+ miles into Crimea’

    Amichai Stein
    @AmichaiStein1
    1h

    #BREAKING: Explosions reported in Novofedorivka, Crimea, inside a large Russian airbase

    Oliver Alexander
    @OAlexanderDK
    1h

    This video shows that the two explosions at Novofedorivka did not originate at the exact same position. It appears to me as if both munitions storage sites were hit and causing large secondary explosions

  35. One of my drawing companions appears to have have developed Parkinson’s. Trembling hand, wrist and forearm, and wobbly on her feet. She’s younger than me and has a beautiful touch as an artist. And a very wide knowledge of music. I saw her tonight, trying to take pics with her phone, and having to use one steady hand to settle the other, quivering unco-operatively.

    She’s not for giving in to the shakes, though shake does. She’s been getting smaller I’d venture to say; smaller across the shoulders and more rounded down. And somehow kinder too. Her brow. And her eyes. Very gentle. Gentle, with additional fortitude. She’s physically diminishing. Growing too, in willpower. I’m very privileged, I decided. And grateful for her friendship.

  36. https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/08/05/preference-flows-and-by-elections-open-thread/comment-page-32/#comment-3963504

    …

    Fed health stay safe campaign, whilst VIC hands out N85 masks

    Jul/ Moderna, meant to wait 3 months after Wuflu, returning family from overseas

    May/ Wuflu, lots in the media how reinfection can now occur after 28 days, after return to office every third desk occupied

    Jan/ Pfizer, sore arm

    Wealth over health and security

    Aug/ AstraZeneca

    May/ AstraZeneca on Fri, slept all day on the Sun

    Stuffed quarantine, vax, testing

    …

  37. I had my fourth Covid shot yesterday and was offered Moderna. Having only had Astra and Pfizer before I wasn’t sure, but the nurse said ATAGI advice is Moderna is more effective against the current Omicron strain so I thought why not give it a go.

    No issues apart from a sore arm which will pass.

  42. #weatheronPB
    Graded unbroken blue opens joy.
    Tasting life, life flows, comforting, busy, complete.
    Cool ground supports my feet.

  43. Pfizer – Slightly sore arm
    Pfizer – Slightly sore arm and tired for a day
    Pfizer – Nothing

    Still covid free, I wear N95 masks in all indoor spaces. I strong recommend the 3M Aura from Sydney Tools.

  44. I am so sorry Finnigans. I mixed up Frank and Finny.
    I saw Frank’s notice on Facebook and later I remembered as The Finnigans!!!!!!

    I must be getting old.

    RIP Frank, a great ALP supporter.

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