Something I really should have noted in last week’s post is that the Australian Electoral Commission has now published two-candidate preferred preference flow data from the election, showing how minor party and independent preferences flowed between Labor and the Coalition. The table below shows how Labor’s share increased for the four biggest minor parties and independents collectively (and also its fraction decrease for “others”) from the last election to this and, in the final column, how much difference each made to Labor’s total share of two-party preferred, which was 52.13%.
Note that the third column compares how many preference Labor received with how many they would have if preference flows had been last time, which is not the same thing as how many preferences they received. Labor in fact got nearly 2% more two-party vote share in the form of Greens preferences at this election because the Greens primary vote was nearly 2% higher this time.
State and territory by-election:
• Six candidates for the August 20 by-election in the Northern Territory seat of Fannie Bay, in ballot paper order: Brent Potter, described in a report as a “government adviser, army veteran and father of four”, for Labor; independent George Mamouzellos; independent Raj Samson Rajwin, who was a Senate candidate for the United Australia Party; Jonathan Parry of the Greens; independent Leah Potter; and Ben Hosking, “small business owner and former police officer”, for the Country Liberals.
• Following the resignation of Labor member Jo Siejka, a by-election will be held for the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Pembroke on September 10. Siejka defeated a Liberal candidate by 8.65% to win the eastern Hobart seat at the periodic election in 2019. There will also be a recount of 2021 election ballots in Franklin to determine which of the three unelected Liberals will replace Jacquie Petrusma following her resignation announcement a fortnight ago. As Kevin Bonham explains, the order of probability runs Bec Enders, Dean Young and James Walker.
• Still no sign of a date for Western Australia’s North West Central by-election.
“ Do you feel better by putting other posters down? This is not a courtroom.
Please wake up to yourself by being courteous.”
Courteousness don’t get us very far if this idiocy takes root and we all end up as nuclear ash. Just like that.
Pulling out the ‘appeasement’ card as a a rationale for damn dangerous brinkmanship needs to be countered as forcefully as possible. Before its too late.
Try courtesy to fellow posters. What’s posted here is almost irrelevant.
It’s well past Pepsys for you, oh hall monitor.
Andrew_Earlwood:
Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 12:23 am
[‘It’s well past Pepsys for you, oh hall monitor.’]
Yes, it is. But I don’t think it’s fair to label me with that appellation given I rarely abuse others. As I said previously, I treat other posters with respect, even Rex, though he grates from time to time, and is in my view, insincere.
@Socrates RE EV charging
I have owned a Tesla model 3 since November and don’t even have a wall charger, I just had an electrician install a dedicated 15amp circuit with 2 outlets (outside and inside the garage) so I can charge either in my garage or driveway. I just use the portable charger that came with the car and it’s been fine.
Max charge rate is only 4kw, but that’s still more than enough for me. If I’m in the office it’s a roughly 70km round trip using about 20% of the battery, which I can easily recharge between midnight and 6am (off-peak tariff), but if i’m not in the office the next day I’ll charge the car off solar instead
However given your large solar array and battery I’d recommend you have a look at the zappi chargers, they will interface with your inverter and can send excess solar to the car and can be controlled from your phone. Tesla’s, having their excellent phone app mean I can control charge rate and timing remotely, which I don’t think is as easy with the leaf, so a zappi charger might be the go for you
PS I’ll be jealous of your V2L capability when you get your leaf
Name-dropping is used to position oneself within a social hierarchy. It is often used to create a sense of superiority by raising one’s status.
I’ve been dropping my name a lot lately. It slips from my tongue as easily as a hot potato from my hands. And I drop my phone nearly every day. I attribute this to day-dreaming. I’ve become very dreamy. Very swoony. And then of course there’s the clumsiness that’s due to the loss of sensation in my fingers, which stems from an injury a few years ago.
I think I’ve been dropping all kinds of things. My guard. My regrets. My glasses and keys. My fears. My anger. I let that fall from my top pocket while kneeling down to pick up a pencil. I had to reach far back under the chaise, trying to scuff the 3B out with the numb part of my hand, and as I leaned face down, peering, the last grains of anger tumbled to the floor and disappeared into the cracks between the boards. I was looking for it the other morning, but it was gone. In its place tears have been dropping. Or really, they would have formed into heavy droplets and run down both cheeks and into the corners of my mouth were it not for the shaking of my head. Anyway, they dropped inwardly. Tears of revelation. Solace is possible. Now I know. Truth has befriended me.
Mavis @ #299 Friday, August 5th, 2022 – 11:52 pm
He’s a very rude individual. But on the other hand, blinded by the brilliance he thinks shines out of him. I mean, calling me the bellicose one and not China. Lol. 😆
https://theunaustralian.net/2022/08/04/man-who-breached-the-racial-discrimination-act-unsurprisingly-against-aboriginal-recognition-in-the-constitution/
here is a summary of a leaked report posted on a ukrainian telegraph channel yesterday. ukrainian social media are full of talk about it today. Thought i’d share it here. i think the “offensive” talked about by zelensky & arestovich may well turn out to be an “announcable”-a.v.
@new_militarycolumnist
643views
The Australian government used private security contractors to collect intelligence on asylum seekers on Nauru, singling out those who were speaking to journalists, lawyers and refugee advocates, internal documents from 2016 reveal.
Intelligence officers working for Wilson Security compiled fortnightly reports about asylum seekers “of interest”, including individuals flagged as having “links with [Australian] media”, “contact with lawyers in Australia” or “contacts with Australian advocates”.
The reports, seen by the Guardian, were circulated among a group of senior government officials, including superintendents and commanders in the Australian Border Force, officials in Australia’s immigration department, members of the Nauru police, the Australian federal police and other private contractors operating on the island.
The reports were compiled in a year of intense protest against offshore detention, and were designed to brief the government about the activities of individual asylum seekers, including children, who were viewed as a threat to the regional processing centre.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/aug/06/coalition-used-private-contractor-to-collect-intelligence-on-nauru-asylum-seekers
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/barilaro-saga-lands-perrottet-in-purgatory-20220803-p5b6xq.html
Maybe we’re yet to see just how involved the premier was in pushing for Barilaro. As they say, it’s often not the deed but the cover up that gets you, and that’s certainly what has happened here.
Mars Wrigley, makers of the Snickers candy bar, apologised on Friday for a Snickers product launch which Chinese social media users said suggested that Taiwan was a country.
Videos and pictures of an event promoting a limited edition Snickers bar that was said to be only available in the “countries” of South Korea, Malaysia, and Taiwan went viral on Chinese microblogging platform Weibo on Friday.
Mars Wrigley on its Snickers China Weibo account published an apology and said the relevant content had been amended.
Is Adam Bandt Putin’s useful idiot?
The world & Europe especially German is facing a crisis in large part due to restricted gas supply from Russia.
Germany needs in the short term to transition to LPG so it can cut Putin adrift.
In the short term Australia should increase LPG supply.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p0cr9sfz
Fully agree. I’m hoping that with the looming State election, and real questions in this term of Parliament about the level of corruption in Victoria touching both major political parties, Andrews will be pressured into action.
“The head of Victoria’s anti-corruption commission has called for a significant change to how his organisation is funded, suggesting decisions about his funding should be removed from the discretion of the government of the day and given to the state parliament.”
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/give-me-independent-funding-says-anti-corruption-chief-robert-redlich-20220805-p5b7kc.html
Delighted to see we have a Senate crossbench that’s more resolutely committed to stronger climate action. More power to them. Jacqui Lambie has come a long way since she voted to repeal the carbon price. I’ve never really forgiven her for that. This could redeem her.
“The passage of Labor’s signature climate emissions laws has been thrown into question, with key crossbench senators David Pocock, Jacqui Lambie and Tammy Tyrrell joining forces to demand their own amendments before they pass the bill.”
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/we-re-no-rubber-stamp-on-climate-pocock-lambie-warn-labor-on-climate-bill-20220805-p5b7no.html
Hollywood cannot match a good lawyer.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cMA-VHvbOp4
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
The first sitting fortnight of the new federal parliament reveals that Australia’s three biggest political parties have all taken a step to the right. The Greens have become a bit browner, Labor has become a bit more Liberal, and the Liberals have become a bit more boutique. The passage of the climate bill through the House of Representatives showcased their repositioning, writes Peter Hartcher who says that Albanese has got off on the right foot. He also analyses the opposition’s problems.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-gets-off-on-the-right-foot-20220805-p5b7nr.html
It has been as good a start to Parliament as anyone can remember, writes Phil Coorey who says the past fortnight stood in stark contrast to previous years in which the Morrison government regarded Parliament as something to be endured rather than turned to its advantage.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/as-good-a-start-to-parliament-as-anyone-can-remember-20220805-p5b7h8
As Labor revels in achieving the support it needed to pass its emissions reduction legislation, the Liberal Party needs to engage seriously with why it lost seats to Labor, the Greens and teals, writes Peter van Onselen.
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/ineffectiveness-of-liberal-moderates-led-to-rise-of-the-teals/news-story/21ac0c8b5056a4517a12694be9b908c6
James Robertson says that, on climate, the Coalition is looking for an each-way bet on a losing horse.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/2022/08/04/climate-coalition-each-way-bet/
It still hasn’t dawned on the Liberal and National parties why they suffered such a stunning defeat at the May election. Maybe Labor’s slender majority masks the rejection of the Liberals in their heartland seats, which resulted in a near-record number of independents. So far, the Liberals seem to have no obvious strategy to win back support, says Paul Bongiorno.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2022/08/06/the-peter-dutton-schtick
After a watershed week on climate, Albanese is eyeing the Hawke playbook for his upcoming jobs summit, writes Katherine Murphy.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2022/aug/05/after-a-watershed-week-on-climate-albanese-is-eyeing-the-hawke-playbook-for-his-upcoming-jobs-summit
The AFR tells us that more than 60 per cent of businesses expect wages to rise more than 3 per cent in the coming year, while the 48-year low jobless rate prompted more than half to report labour shortages placing “severe” constraints on output.
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/wages-forecast-to-grow-at-the-fastest-pace-in-a-decade-20220805-p5b7mo
In response to higher inflation since the beginning of May the Reserve Bank has aggressively increased interest rates, albeit from an exceptionally low level. From here on, however, a more cautious approach is needed., posits Michael Keating.
https://johnmenadue.com/monetary-policy-how-far-will-interest-rates-need-to-rise-and-how-fast/
John Hewson writes about “The recession Australia might have to have”. He says the policy challenge for the Albanese government is compounded by pressures left deliberately by the Morrison government, or attributable to its incompetence and neglect – in aggregate, record debt with budget deficits stretching as far as the eye can see.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2022/08/06/the-recession-australia-might-have-have
Labor takes the applause, but soon it will have to upset people, writes Jacob Greber.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/labor-takes-the-applause-but-soon-it-will-have-to-upset-people-20220805-p5b7nd
Chris Bowen has outlined the next phase of the federal government’s plan to shift the nation substantially onto renewable energy, a day after the lower house passed historic legislation locking in at least a 43 per cent cut to emissions by 2030. The federal government is planning to create a national network of zones where offshore wind power generation is allowed, naming six areas it will seek to declare “suitable” as Bowen said Australia had a lot of catching up to do in the sector, reports Katina Curtis.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/we-re-way-behind-the-game-bowen-takes-step-towards-offshore-wind-farm-approvals-20220805-p5b7hm.html
Success for the federal government’s 2030 climate goal hinges on two ambitious schemes to force big businesses to cut their carbon pollution, and the deadline looms large with just 89 months to go. Mike Foley tells us how it will do it.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/how-labor-will-hit-its-2030-climate-target-20220804-p5b7ay.html
Perhaps not since the marriage equality vote has the passage of a bill in the House of Representatives carried such a combination of substantive and symbolic import as the Albanese government’s climate legislation., writes Michelle Grattan who says the debate over the legislation has highlighted and exacerbated the bad place the Coalition is in. She adds that it is already clear the opposition is divided on the Voice. Finding its way to a common position on the Voice referendum will be even more difficult for the Coalition than forging a new climate policy.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/climate-vote-turns-up-temperature-on-dutton-s-opposition-20220804-p5b7e7.html
The Australian Conservation Foundation’s Paul Sinclair declares that no one can afford further delays to meaningful climate action.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/no-one-can-afford-further-delays-to-meaningful-climate-action-20220804-p5b78v.html
The Age tells us that confronting “fundamental failings” in government in Victoria, the IBAC chief says his funding should be removed from the political cycle.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/give-me-independent-funding-says-anti-corruption-chief-robert-redlich-20220805-p5b7kc.html
Shane Wright and Rachel Clun write that unions and economists have urged the federal government to fast-track policies to deal with the cost-of-living crisis as the Reserve Bank admitted low-income households may have to cut spending.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/real-wages-to-continue-falling-as-high-inflation-and-interest-rates-hit-households-20220805-p5b7he.html
Some of Australia’s most eminent jurists have expressed concern at the roles of former attorneys-general, a magistrate, a judge and the court system overall in charging, convicting, sentencing and jailing a former intelligence officer in absolute secrecy, as details of the process are revealed for the first time, writes Karen Middleton about the secret trial of Witness J and how it damaged democracy.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2022/08/06/damaging-democracy-the-secret-trial-witness-j
Lucy Cormack reports that NSW’s public service commissioner says she would never have signed off on a final selection report for John Barilaro if she knew then what she knows now. And she’s not at all happy about it!
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/female-candidate-was-ranked-highest-to-help-fulfil-mandate-to-appoint-a-woman-to-the-role-inquiry-hears-20220805-p5b7il.html
In a very long exposition, Deborah Snow and Alexandra Smith say that the Barilaro saga has landed Perrottet in purgatory. Barilaro will front the committee on Monday.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/barilaro-saga-lands-perrottet-in-purgatory-20220803-p5b6xq.html
Disabled students in public schools are missing out on $600 million a year, because of onerous and unfair funding arrangements, explains Rick Morton who says pressure is building on the new federal government to renegotiate agreements that will ensure almost 400,000 disabled students currently at a loss in the state system are given the money to which they are entitled.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2022/08/06/exclusive-private-schools-win-millions-disability-funding
Kevin Rudd has launched a scathing rebuke of the emerging conservative campaign against a referendum on an Indigenous Voice to parliament, attacking his longtime rival Tony Abbott for suggesting the body would change Australia’s system of government.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/rudd-rebukes-abbott-for-stoking-anxiety-and-fear-over-voice-to-parliament-20220805-p5b7hs.html
Rudd has written an op-ed in which he says the Voice debate reminds him of the controversy before he delivered the apology.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/voice-debate-reminds-me-of-controversy-before-i-delivered-the-apology-20220805-p5b7jd.html
“Economists and business people talk unceasingly about the crying need to improve the economy’s productivity, but most of what they say is self-serving and much of it’s just silly. Fortunately, this week’s five-yearly report on the subject from the Productivity Commission, The Key to Prosperity, is far from silly, and might just stand a chance of getting us somewhere”, writes Ross Gittins who explodes common misconceptions about what productivity is.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/if-working-smarter-comes-from-new-ideas-it-s-time-we-had-some-20220804-p5b7eh.html
On the state of the Victorian Liberal party, the Saturday Paper’s editorial says, “The kindest thing that could be said about Matthew Guy is that he looks like a cartoon shrimp. It is not just the spinelessness and the bottom feeding: there is also the perpetual sense of him being pulled up in a net.”
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/2022/08/06/grifters-all-the-way-down
Chris Barrett writes that the ABF has transported 46 Sri Lankan men home on its largest patrol vessel – the first time people fleeing the bankrupt nation for Australia have been returned by sea and not air.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/sending-a-message-border-force-ship-docks-in-colombo-to-return-sri-lankans-20220805-p5b7px.html
From the day Resilience NSW was established, it was coordinating recovery from bushfires, a pandemic and multiple flooding events. But former emergency services chiefs say it wasn’t given the time to establish itself to deal with the mammoth work ahead.
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/they-better-have-a-bloody-good-reason-why-resilience-nsw-was-doomed-from-the-start-20220805-p5b7i0.html
And the SMH editorial says NSW needs solutions, not scapegoats, for flood response mistakes.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/nsw-needs-solutions-not-scapegoats-for-flood-response-mistakes-20220805-p5b7og.html
Christopher Knaus points to internal documents from 2016 that reveal the Australian government used private security contractors to collect intelligence on asylum seekers on Nauru, singling out those who were speaking to journalists, lawyers and refugee advocates.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/aug/06/coalition-used-private-contractor-to-collect-intelligence-on-nauru-asylum-seekers
“GPs: underpaid compared with specialist peers. Overloaded with admin. Stressed out by the pressures of COVID-19. No longer aspirational to med-school graduates. Diagnosis: a profession in need of urgent treatment.” A special report from Amanda Hooton on our growing GP crisis.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/i-m-totally-utterly-done-the-insider-take-on-our-growing-gp-crisis-20220628-p5axab.html
Luke Henriques-Gomes writes that the federal government will spend more than $11bn on the two main outsourced employment services programs over four years. The top companies – some of them multinationals – will rake in hundreds of millions of dollars. He says that in Australia’s welfare sector obligations are ‘mutual’, but profits flow only one way.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/06/mutual-obligations-the-money-go-round-of-unemployment-industry
As experts question the diplomatic, strategic and economic rationale behind Australia’s purchase of nuclear-powered submarines, the gaps in the country’s defensive fleet could be filled by conventional subs, argues Brian Toohey.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2022/08/06/does-australia-actually-need-nuclear-submarines
Chip Le Grand reports that a whistleblower from inside the former Kilmore International School wrote to Australia’s corporate regulator two years ago warning the school was at risk of financial collapse and that high fees were being paid to companies controlled by the school’s founder, Ray Wittmer.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/sucked-dry-how-a-private-school-fell-into-financial-ruin-20220804-p5b7bj.html
Dear old Gerard in his weekly whine says that the ABC is a conservative-free zone without one conservative presenter, producer or editor for any of its prominent television, radio or online outlets.
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/no-debate-about-it-gabfests-are-conservativefree-zones/news-story/31a559242d819f9e729f31821887a243
Almost a year after the Taliban seized Kabul, Afghans who worked for Australia are being told to cross the border into Pakistan, some without documentation, without their families and at great risk, reports Karen Middleton.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2022/08/06/exclusive-dfat-told-afghans-travel-without-passports
The Tories are swerving wildly to the right as Truss and Sunak promise the impossible, writes Poly Toynbee.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/aug/04/conservative-leadership-liz-truss-rishi-sunak-promise-the-impossible
An editorial in The Guardian says that this week’s vote in Kansas to defend women’s rights mirrors US opinion on the issue more generally and may shape the midterm elections.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/aug/05/the-guardian-view-on-the-kansas-abortion-vote-voice-of-america
Cartoon Corner
Alan Moir
Matt Golding
Jim Pavlidis
John Shakespeare
Jon Kudelka
Matt Davidson
Andrew Dyson
Harry Bruce
Mark Knight
Leak
From the US
No time to bludge @ #306 Saturday, August 6th, 2022 – 5:09 am
Beautiful writing, Comrade. Thanks for sharing your rare gift 🙂
“[Perrotet’s] chief of staff, Bran Black”
Bran is the new Black?
Insiders Sunday, 7 Aug
David Speers joins Andrew Probyn, Lenore Taylor and Waleed Aly to discuss national security amid Taiwan tensions and a defence strategic review, the climate bill passed by the House plus interest rates and the cost of living.
Guest : Andrew Hastie – Shadow Defence Minister
Sceptic @ #313 Saturday, August 6th, 2022 – 7:15 am
There’s an uncomfortable lesson in harsh reality that The Greens are slowly learning, as was evidenced with their decision to vote for the government’s Climate Change legislation. That is, there are real world consequences for saying, ‘No’.
So it is with the LNG issue. Putin has cold-bloodedly and deviously devised Fossil Fuel handcuffs to tie Europe to him and to attempt to prosecute a modern day Prisoner of Zenda scenario in the battle between Democracy and Authoritarianism. Gas imports from other countries around the world are the key to getting Europe out from under Putin and so it is incumbent upon countries like Australia to help out in this project.
Yes, Climate Change is the Earth’s #1 existential problem, but Putin and the Populist Autocrats are the immediate problem and they need to be dealt with first and foremost. And the thing The Greens need to realise is that, if Putin wins the war in Ukraine and Europe gives in to Putin, then Putin doesn’t give two hoots about Climate Change and the world will go to a worse hell in a worse handbasket and all The Greens’ pleading for Kumbayah will fall on deaf ears and dead eyes.
So, if The Greens could face this real politik reality that would be nice.
BREAKING: US court orders Alex Jones pay $45 million in compensation over claims Sandy Hook school shooting was a hoax
Holdenhillbilly says:
Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 8:09 am
BREAKING: US court orders Alex Jones pay $45 million in compensation over claims Sandy Hook school shooting was a hoax
That is nice that leaves some for the other families.
Holdenhillbillysays: Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 8:09 am
BREAKING: US court orders Alex Jones pay $45 million in compensation over claims Sandy Hook school shooting was a hoax
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
Jones was sued for defamation by Neil Heslin and Scarlett Lewis, the parents of Jesse Lewis, who was murdered in the 2012 fatal school shooting in Newtown, Connecticut which Jones falsely claimed was a hoax.
Heslin and Lewis were awarded a total of $49.3 million.
“Remember this is the first of three trials for damages against Jones,”
“Two more are scheduled for next month-— one in Texas, and one brought by the families of eight victims in Connecticut, where laws governing damages favor plaintiffs more than in Texas, “And Connecticut is where the shooting occurred.”
Holdenhillbilly @ #322 Saturday, August 6th, 2022 – 8:09 am
He’ll fight it. He’s already declared bankruptcy. He’s probably alienated his money already through a myriad of shell companies. He’s shameless. He won’t do the right thing.
It’s somewhat reassuring to have the political train on a mostly standard gauge after the inhibitors of change are somewhat shunted from the main track.
We are yet see any signs of the plans to commence the necessary reconstruction and maintenance of their rolling stock and gauge standardization.
The current main engine seems inadequate with nothing available as a replacement.
The MSM are being wise after the event if today’s efforts are any indication.
Does Leak receive money for his efforts and from what source?
The Coalition is looking at a prolonged holiday in the back lane with the main liberal engine looking forlorn, clueless and rusting.
2028 has a Sunday too far away!
An interesting discussion re emission reduction.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/audio/2022/aug/06/chris-bowen-on-landmark-climate-legislation-negotiating-with-the-greens-and-whats-yet-to-come
#weatheronPB
A lid lies over us.
A benign shield keeping meagre warmth inside.
And it rained, a little.
C@t re Alex Jones finances from the new daily:
“Mr Heslin and Ms Lewis joined other Sandy Hook parents in urging a judge to block Free Speech System from sending Jones or his companies any money until they get to the bottom of their finances.
The parents claim that Jones took $US62 million ($89 million) from the company while burdening it with $US65 million ($93 million) in “fabricated” debt owed to PQPR Holdings, a company owned by Jones and his parents.”
What I don’t get about the Taiwan issue is what actually is Chinas policy. Yes, the goal is obvious, but how do they intend to get there? What is the strategy for this?
It can’t be invasion. That can’t be their chosen path (it no doubt is on the table and they have been improving capability). But their strategy in HK is almost ruling out any other option (other than angry adversarial stalemate – which is ok). It makes you wonder if there is a coherent and broad strategy in the hierarchy in China. Or, more concerning, there are fierce silos of opposing strategies battling it out. Xi is either taking the hawk side here or awol or without agency. All very troubling possibilities.
One thing is certain. Rand Paul is wrong. The US and the worlds strategy in Ukraine is not solely focussed on Russia. It reminds China that interdependency does have its limits and violent invasion has its cons. Not sure if the US would go to war on the issue but if not they will go on a war footing to move their consumerism from China to anywhere else (onshore or elsewhere).
But yes, I do not see an upside to Pelosi going there. Unless there was intel suggesting China was moving away from the current stalemate anyway and needed a clear signal that this would not be acceptable.
Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. Labor has made great progress this week but still faces great challenges on the inflation, budget and defence fronts.
Insiders would have done much better to speak to Paul Dibb, author of the Hawke era defence review back in 1986, instead of Shadow Andrew Hastie. He talks bluntly about some of the risks and solutions in this article.
One obvious solution is to cut spending on non essentials including a big armoured vehicle program, in favour of planes, ships, subs and especially missiles. Dibb singles out the new AFV program, costing over $20 billion.
Cancelling this would have political implications – Morrison managed to promise the same jobs building them to both Victoria and Qld. Some of the changes could create solutions, like building more Bushmasters in Victoria and missiles and Ghost Bat (Loyal Wingman) UAVs at Boeing in Qld.
Likewise shifting from 9 frigates to 6 AWDs and 6 frigates would create jobs in Perth, assuming SSNs are going ahead in ASC.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-05/defence-expert-paul-dibb-china-threat-australia-defence/101302104
Jones is cooked. This isn’t like a chump like Trump trying to avoid tax. The families won’t give in. There will be hoards of lawyers and investigators itching to do some good and track the money and bring home the bacon to these poor people. They are on a mission. And the courts will be sympathetic.
He will kid himself for now. But it is all going south for him from here.
Jan 6
The Chinese strategy in Taiwan is obviously blockade to force it to surrender. Current response is a trial run.
Taiwan is only 35% self sufficient in food and has underspent on its own defense. They need to buy/build more missiles and expand local food production.
If the Chinese siezed islands north and south of Taiwan, put missiles on them, and declared another “no go” zone near its ports they could force surrender within a year.
There is only one port on Taiwan’s
Cold rain on the roof.
Dark green bush and grey air conspire colour out the day.
But the coffee is good on an armchair by the fire.
The cat sleeps on a rug at my feet.
And no netball today.
Truth has befriended me.
Thank you friend. Endurance is a slow gift. Lyrics to be rolled and tasted with my finger tips. Take care, friend.
”
Confessionssays:
Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 7:06 am
Not much political nous was required to anticipate that John Barilaro’s appointment to a plum trade post in New York – a post Barilaro helped create when he was trade minister – would unleash a firestorm the minute it became public in mid-June.
“We were all scratching our heads to be honest” a senior minister said this week, after trade and investment minister Stuart Ayres fell on his sword. “It was such an obvious own goal. As soon as senior ministers saw [the Barilaro appointment] we were just furious.”
The mystery is this: why was the political risk not obvious to the premier from the outset? Why was it not obvious to his chief of staff, Bran Black? Or, for that matter, to deputy premier Paul Toole, who like Perrottet, knew about it by the end of April at the very latest?
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/barilaro-saga-lands-perrottet-in-purgatory-20220803-p5b6xq.html
Maybe we’re yet to see just how involved the premier was in pushing for Barilaro. As they say, it’s often not the deed but the cover up that gets you, and that’s certainly what has happened here.
”
SMH: why was the political risk not obvious to the premier from the outset? Why was it not obvious to his chief of staff, Bran Black? Or, for that matter, to deputy premier Paul Toole, who like Perrottet, knew about it by the end of April at the very latest?
Me: Why indeed?
If it was obvious to people like me the day I heard it ABC for the first time about 2 months ago, who doesn’t know much anyway, why was it not obvious to above political players?
A couple of reasons from my POV:
1. The usual LNP arrogance that the people don’t care about these things.
2. The usual arrogance of a party after 11 years in power and still being in power after some many scandals, replacement of 4 Premiers, 3 resigned under the cloud of impropriety.
3. The arrogance of a party, which faces totally useless, ineffective, lazy opposition with only mediocrity, rent seekers in its ranks and no stand out candidates after 11 years.
4. A party which thinks Pork barelling is not corruption.
5. A party which had complete support from media.
6. A party which got more brazen after each act of corruption went unpunished.
Who’s climate policy most closely mirrors the urgings of consensus climate science? Albanese, Dutton or Bandt?
Terminator @ #329 Saturday, August 6th, 2022 – 9:00 am
There’s a special place in hell for people like Alex Jones and his collaborators.
@Ven:
Chutzpah for the SMH to be asking “why”, given the billions in free adverting they have given in campaigning for, promoting, enabling and justifying the marketing scam for developers that has been the O’Farrell-Baird-BinChook-Domicron crime syndicate for the past 12 years.
I reckon they might need a distraction, lest more folk ask the big “why” of 9/Faix: I’m sure there’s a memo from Chairman Costello on the way to the Editor’s office now – quick! Deploy chaff; kick that cardboard box over in the corner and roll out the wine soaked Kate McClymont dwelling therein to regurgitate another Eddie/Joe/Macca story. ASAP!!!
markjs says:
Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 7:53 am
Beautiful writing, Comrade. Thanks for sharing your rare gift
Thank you too, Comrade. I’m much obliged.
🙂
Jan 6 @ #330 Saturday, August 6th, 2022 – 9:12 am
China’s strategy makes sense if it believes it will end up being the most powerful economic nation in the world (which seems likely). Taiwan’s strategy assumes continued US economic and military hegemony.
The main problem with China’s strategy is that their military dominance trails their economic dominance by quite a long way, which could lead to a worrying few decades when the US collapses economically but can still dominate militarily.
Blisteringly bright white light and a gentle breeze blowing over the Broken Bay. 16C. Winter in paradise.
Until it starts raining again for the next week. Sigh.
”
markjssays:
Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 7:53 am
No time to bludge @ #306 Saturday, August 6th, 2022 – 5:09 am
Name-dropping is used to position oneself within a social hierarchy. It is often used to create a sense of superiority by raising one’s status.
I’ve been dropping my name a lot lately. It slips from my tongue as easily as a hot potato from my hands. And I drop my phone nearly every day. I attribute this to day-dreaming. I’ve become very dreamy. Very swoony. And then of course there’s the clumsiness that’s due to the loss of sensation in my fingers, which stems from an injury a few years ago.
I think I’ve been dropping all kinds of things. My guard. My regrets. My glasses and keys. My fears. My anger. I let that fall from my top pocket while kneeling down to pick up a pencil. I had to reach far back under the chaise, trying to scuff the 3B out with the numb part of my hand, and as I leaned face down, peering, the last grains of anger tumbled to the floor and disappeared into the cracks between the boards. I was looking for it the other morning, but it was gone. In its place tears have been dropping. Or really, they would have formed into heavy droplets and run down both cheeks and into the corners of my mouth were it not for the shaking of my head. Anyway, they dropped inwardly. Tears of revelation. Solace is possible. Now I know. Truth has befriended me.
Beautiful writing, Comrade. Thanks for sharing your rare gift
”
Briefly has a gift with words.
I think he is at peace with himself after ALP came to power at federal level. 🙂
“ China’s strategy makes sense if it believes it will end up being the most powerful economic nation in the world (which seems likely). Taiwan’s strategy assumes continued US economic and military hegemony.
The main problem with China’s strategy is that their military dominance trails their economic dominance by quite a long way, which could lead to a worrying few decades when the US collapses economically but can still dominate militarily.”
_______
I think there is an absence of ‘sense’ all around. A fine mess.
State and federal authorities are concerned the number of Australians getting their third dose of Covid-19 vaccine is flatlining, AAP reports.
There are more than 5.6 million yet to get their booster.
_________
What is WRONG with people?
Someone here claimed a while back that the ACF was backing Labor’s climate policy.
Doesn’t sound like it to me in this article by Paul Sinclair (campaigns director at the Australian Conservation Foundation) …
https://www.smh.com.au/national/no-one-can-afford-further-delays-to-meaningful-climate-action-20220804-p5b78v.html
Oh, and just to throw a bit more fuel on the fossil-fuelled dumpster fire of pointless Labor policies: Offshore wind is not the answer. Offshore wind costs up to three times as much as onshore wind to build and also to maintain, and the power it generates is twice the price of that of onshore wind. It also generates very few local jobs – like offshore oil platforms, it is almost entirely a FIFO industry. Offshore wind can contribute in limited circumstances, but for Australia it is really little more than a convenient figleaf.
P1
Doesn’t sound like they’re not backing it, either.
The Climate Council sound quite enthusiastic about offshore wind farms –
https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/offshore-wind-fact-sheet/
”
Player Onesays:
Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 9:51 am
Jan 6 @ #330 Saturday, August 6th, 2022 – 9:12 am
What I don’t get about the Taiwan issue is what actually is Chinas policy. Yes, the goal is obvious, but how do they intend to get there? What is the strategy for this?
China’s strategy makes sense if it believes it will end up being the most powerful economic nation in the world (which seems likely). Taiwan’s strategy assumes continued US economic and military hegemony.
The main problem with China’s strategy is that their military dominance trails their economic dominance by quite a long way, which could lead to a worrying few decades when the US collapses economically but can still dominate militarily.
”
Agree.
Another elephant in the room for USA is its current political environment. It is like a seesaw hanging on a cliff with democracy on one side and authoritarianism on the other.
Even internal Chinese economic and political environment is also very dicey. They are able to hide it because of their dictatorship.
So the next year or so will be very interesting to say the least.
Anyway, what do I know?
UK Cartoons:
