Something I really should have noted in last week’s post is that the Australian Electoral Commission has now published two-candidate preferred preference flow data from the election, showing how minor party and independent preferences flowed between Labor and the Coalition. The table below shows how Labor’s share increased for the four biggest minor parties and independents collectively (and also its fraction decrease for “others”) from the last election to this and, in the final column, how much difference each made to Labor’s total share of two-party preferred, which was 52.13%.
Note that the third column compares how many preference Labor received with how many they would have if preference flows had been last time, which is not the same thing as how many preferences they received. Labor in fact got nearly 2% more two-party vote share in the form of Greens preferences at this election because the Greens primary vote was nearly 2% higher this time.
State and territory by-election:
• Six candidates for the August 20 by-election in the Northern Territory seat of Fannie Bay, in ballot paper order: Brent Potter, described in a report as a “government adviser, army veteran and father of four”, for Labor; independent George Mamouzellos; independent Raj Samson Rajwin, who was a Senate candidate for the United Australia Party; Jonathan Parry of the Greens; independent Leah Potter; and Ben Hosking, “small business owner and former police officer”, for the Country Liberals.
• Following the resignation of Labor member Jo Siejka, a by-election will be held for the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Pembroke on September 10. Siejka defeated a Liberal candidate by 8.65% to win the eastern Hobart seat at the periodic election in 2019. There will also be a recount of 2021 election ballots in Franklin to determine which of the three unelected Liberals will replace Jacquie Petrusma following her resignation announcement a fortnight ago. As Kevin Bonham explains, the order of probability runs Bec Enders, Dean Young and James Walker.
• Still no sign of a date for Western Australia’s North West Central by-election.
BK @ #345 Saturday, August 6th, 2022 – 10:04 am
It’s *over* in their minds. I’ve been roaring around Sydney in the last few days. Masks are virtually non-existent. One (Chinese) restaurant had wait staff in masks. Woollies check-out staff wore masks. No one else did. The Opera House is pushing masks onto concert-goers, but not compulsory. The bar areas are pretty mask free. At a rehearsal the other night, weirdly, the full compliment of choristers (about 120) all wore masks, which I can understand – they need to get through to the actual performances, and 120 singing full throttle could be some covid hotspot.
And people are stupid, and reckless. An acquaintance was invited to join a friend at a performance the other week, only to find himself sitting next to his “friend” who snuffled and coughed into his mask (at least that) during the whole show, then tested positive for Covid two days later, and has just emerged from quarantine, including from his immuno-compromised partner.
Instead of public health lessons having been acquired and absorbed into instinct, nothing much seems to have been learned.
zoomster @ #348 Saturday, August 6th, 2022 – 10:13 am
Right. Another “Australia could be a <insert technology here> superpower” article. Look at when and for whom that article was written:
Labor is still adopting COALition climate policies, just as they did when they were in opposition. You may want to ask yourself why this should still be the case (I think we both know the answer).
The only “superpower” Australia has ever had or will ever have is in exporting fossil fuels.
Bob Carr pens his thoughts on Taiwan, more quick notes than elegant essay, highlighting the need to rewind the clock back to more balanced days of deflecting hypotheticals and talking up peace.
https://johnmenadue.com/bob-carr-keep-the-peace-our-goal/
Wherever I read it I can’t remember, but it’s like a burr in my mind: the usurping of one superpower over another takes of the order of 100 years (though the years are shortening as decades shrink) and the onus is on the waning power to see it happens peacefully, which it never has.
BK, belated thanks.
Mavis @ #302 Saturday, August 6th, 2022 – 1:00 am
I’m not sure of the nature of my crime that has rendered me victim to this late night assault on my character …?
Is it that I dare question the temperament of Saint Penny of Foreign Affairs …?
Nevertheless, I shall NOT be deterred from putting forth my frank views ..!
BK @ #343 Saturday, August 6th, 2022 – 10:04 am
I got my 4th yesterday.
Slight arm ache, otherwise fine. 🙂
“ The result is that Labor is in government and progress, suddenly, is possible. And Albanese was able to champion a climate plan that not only had the support of the Business Council and the National Farmers’ Federation but also the Australian Conservation Foundation and Greenpeace. This is the very definition of a unifying policy.”
I’m confident it has been a very long time since a government has been able to unite such a diverse stakeholder group. That’s a serious tick of approval. How long it lasts is of course open to conjecture but it hasn’t gone unnoticed by most and has positively impacted Albo’s credibility.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-gets-off-on-the-right-foot-20220805-p5b7nr.html
Good to see Pelosi but that clown xi the pooh in his box this week, And for Albo to put both those
clowns flagman and p1 in theirs *hehe*
Bellwether @ #335 Saturday, August 6th, 2022 – 9:41 am
Albo and Bowen best temper their celebrations as Pocock and JLN aren’t finished with them yet.
And Penny Wong, what a legend! Exiting that utter foul snake lavrov’s speech, woo hoo!
to think some on here want to give that pig any time?
Scanning the CPG Insiders’ offerings today one might think that new associations with ministers are being sought with lashings of good copy inducements put forward…
Rex Douglas @ #355 Saturday, August 6th, 2022 – 10:43 am
I reckon it is that you think for yourself rather than allowing a political party or faction to do your thinking for you.
Something in all this China – Taiwan – US talk that should always be questioned is the assumption China will overtake the US economically, militarily etc.
In my view, it is far from a given that China is destined to continue rising and the US is destined to decline.
What is important over the next two decades is that, should China peak and start declining, the US and its allies maintain a level-headedness and not forment a situation in which China views military action as its last remaining course of action.
So, don’t antagonise (like Pelosi has), but do set clear boundaries to push back on Chinese belligerence (freedom of navigation exercises).
Kate McClymont still burning after having to shred her book.
Still playing the same old hits. Reminds me of that Simpsons line ‘Stop, he’s already dead’.
As for the Nine NSW Political coverage don’t get me started.
Mark David
Thank you, BK. Love that David cartoon.
Well funy for years the msm said pilosey was to progresive and the murdock media kept on talking abbout a conservative democrat chalinging her leadership of the house now shes there new faverite democrat still thinke her viset to tiwon was pointlis grand standing zi can not be replaced as he changed the rules to be president foor life i thik the defence establishment lead buy andrew shearer need to acsept that china will eventualy replace the us as supper power and stop triying to deniethis chinas human rights record is allways bad butright only discoved human rights when us power is threatind
I think all liked minded citizen warriors should organise a flotilla of water craft. Get some lads on jet skis from the George River. Some Tinnies out the Nepean. Some Yacths out of Pittwater. Get em all together and set sail for the Taiwan Straits.
Call it the world’s biggest freedom of navigation exercise. Get a sponsor. Maybe Sportsbet or something. The Daily Tele and Nine will jointly PR it. C@tmomma will love it. Maybe Dr John can organise a few celebrities he knows to participate as well. Holly Valance perhaps? I’m sure she will bring some lads out for the trip. Maybe there can be the ASPI boat as well funded by American defence contractors no doubt.
That will show Xi. Freedom!
if us and nato could not defend ucrane buy sending troops no reason they should ingage in a war withchina over tiwon the us needs to stop endlis wars but claiming to want pease wonder when the msm will condem saldi arabia and israile
Socrates
I wonder these days however whether a naval blockade of Taiwan by China is altogether possible. I’m assuming here that US ships would intervene to escort supplies. This would again force China to decide whether it wants to take on the US which it understandably appears reticent to do. It would have a challenging time simply taking on a very well defended Taiwan and although it might well win, at what cost? I think it is this final question, particularly in the current circumstances that include covid, high youth unemployment, a struggling economy and housing and banking industries facing a challenging environment that render genuine action by China difficult.
Destroying the village (Taiwan) to save it is unlikely to be well received domestically in China or Taiwan if tens of thousands of Chinese and Taiwanese soldiers perish (not to mention a very significant civilian toll) for little apparent gain (not to mention the international diplomatic actions that would be taken against it in retribution).
Well funy for years the msm said pilosey was to progresive and the murdock media kept on talking abbout a conservative democrat chalinging her leadership of the house now shes there new faverite democrat still thinke her viset to tiwon was pointlis grand standing zi can not be replaced as he changed the rules to be president foor life i thik the defence establishment lead buy andrew shearer need to acsept that china will eventualy replace the us as supper power and stop triying to deniethis chinas human rights record is allways bad butright only discoved human rights when u
China’s language of discourse is threats, bullying, shouting, anger, rage, self-righteousness, belligerence, endless shots fired, missiles fired over the capital city of Taiwan all accompanied by endless ships and planes roaring around. Add to that the endless ideological pissing down on Taiwanese democracy. Add to that targeted threats at Taiwanese political figures – democratically elected. Add to that trade punishments. Add to that refusal to co-operate on climate. And all this terrible behaviour is brought to a screaming, incandescent, foaming crescendo because a single politician visits a democracy for a couple of days.
To me this is like giving a two year old aircraft carriers, fighters, bombers, missile swarms and nuclear weapons and then sitting around to see what happens next.
What would happen were the West adopted EXACTLY the same sort of behaviours as China?
‘Cronus says:
Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 11:12 am
Socrates
I wonder these days however whether a naval blockade of Taiwan by China is altogether possible. I’m assuming here that US ships would intervene to escort supplies. This would again force China to decide whether it wants to take on the US which it understandably appears reticent to do. It would have a challenging time simply taking on a very well defended Taiwan and although it might well win, at what cost? I think it is this final question, particularly in the current circumstances that include covid, high youth unemployment, a struggling economy and housing and banking industries facing a challenging environment that render genuine action by China difficult.
Destroying the village (Taiwan) to save it is unlikely to be well received domestically in China or Taiwan if tens of thousands of Chinese and Taiwanese soldiers perish (not to mention a very significant civilian toll) for little apparent gain (not to mention the international diplomatic actions that would be taken against it in retribution).’
———————————–
Thought control of the Home Front is well-advanced.
Boewar. To your question. It did. It’s called the United States of America.
At ran slide not a huge fan off kk but imo the reason she has been a liability foor us in labor is due to the myth making buy hadley and co that she was a pupit off tripodi while emma escapes scurtiny desbite being closer then kenearley barilarow should face this levil of scrutiny the media must admit friendley jordies was right
Well funy for years the msm said pilosey was to progresive and the murdock media kept on talking abbout a conservative democrat chalinging her leadership of the house now shes there new faverite democrat still thinke her viset to tiwon was pointlis grand standing zi can not be replaced as he changed the rules to be president foor life i thik the defence establishment lead buy andrew shearer need to acsept that china will eventualy replace the us as supper power and stop triying to deniethis chinas human rights record is allways bad butright only discoved human rights wh
I see that the organizers of the Statement from the Heart have issued a statement politely asking for a consensus on the Voice: over to Bolt, Sheridan, Bandt, Hadly, Price, Abbott, Thorpe and Credlin. What a cool little combination names in that sentence!
Rex Douglas @ #355 Saturday, August 6th, 2022 – 10:43 am
The one thing I’d never accuse Rex of would be insincerity, especially in the same sentence as claiming to treat other posters with respect. But then I got called a pseudo-socialist, by the same someone who knows SFA about me, so go figure.
‘wranslide says:
Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 11:17 am
Boewar. To your question. It did. It’s called the United States of America.’
————————————————–
FMD. The old same old, same old business. It is time that some in the West woke up.
If Pocock blocks the passage of the 43% bill he will not get re-elected to the Senate.
C@tmomma says:
Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 9:47 am
Terminator @ #329 Saturday, August 6th, 2022 – 9:00 am
C@t re Alex Jones finances from the new daily:
“Mr Heslin and Ms Lewis joined other Sandy Hook parents in urging a judge to block Free Speech System from sending Jones or his companies any money until they get to the bottom of their finances.
The parents claim that Jones took $US62 million ($89 million) from the company while burdening it with $US65 million ($93 million) in “fabricated” debt owed to PQPR Holdings, a company owned by Jones and his parents.”
“There’s a special place in hell for people like Alex Jones and his collaborators.”
And if there’s not a hell then perhaps we should make one for Jones et al.
Boerwar @ #372 Saturday, August 6th, 2022 – 11:15 am
You’re not serious, surely. Tell me you wrote that in jest.
If Lambie votes FOR the 43% after voting against the carbon thingie then we have come to the core of the existential risk that goes with voting for crossbenchers. On any particular day we don’t know whether we are getting tweedledum or tweeledee.
Itza
My point is that China has succeeded in ‘normalizing’ a situation in which it behaves terribly badly, all the time.
IMO Taiwan does not need to be a pawn in Geopolitics. It doesn’t need to be ‘resolved’ – It can stay as a stalemate. It should be easy for both sides to keep it that way.
Invasion or blockades would be a net negative to Chinese power and influence at a time the US has the power to stop more expansive military efforts – Chinese aggression in Taiwan will strengthen US ties in the region.
And, the US creating closer ties with Taiwan unnecessarily (unless they suspect China is about to move) increases instability at a time and in a region they need to be stable.
It is a lesson that wise heads in governments do not always have a say in events. And unwise events can create their own momentum. A lesson that international politics can be an extension of internal politics.
Power has come to China through engagement, interdependencies, economic growth, trade. They will keep reaping the rewards of this by staying away from aggressive hard power. They have plenty of smart soft power to wield. I am tempted to say that the political system in China is creating an environment of stupidity – of chest beating rather than rational action. But such behaviour has been seen in democracies too.
Boerwar @ #380 Saturday, August 6th, 2022 – 11:22 am
What even makes you think he wouldn’t secure its passage?
isnt china just adopting the us mind set off endlis threats the us should offleft afghistan in abbout 2010 it was clear then that the taliban were alllrways come back to power they cant force democrasy on countries that dont want it but when ucrane pleads foor global help since 2014 with it be comon knolidge that rusia would invade the west does nothing and apeasis rusia right util the inevatable happens the republicans have got a lot to answer foor apeazing putin
Boerwar @ #384 Saturday, August 6th, 2022 – 11:25 am
Yes, like the USA. I know you hate the Chinese. I know you hate the Greens. I know you hate the Teals. Pull back on the hate a bit. It’s not good for you.
I’m guessing once Pocock and Lambie are finished with Bowen’s climate bill, it will be far superior and more robust in comparison to the initial draft.
‘Andrew_Earlwood says:
Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 12:01 am
“ One problem with Taiwan is that both Taiwan and China believe Taiwan is a part of China.
Where they traditionally differ is which of them should be the Government.
Until the early 70s the world recognised Taiwan, since then it has changed to the mainland.”
Some pop journalists – and a few folk in the present government of Taiwan – like to imagine Taiwan as an independent nation state, but the constitution of Taiwan actually pretends that the state IS the whole of china. ‘One China’ is a fable that everybody has been happy to agree to for decades.
America is deliberately attempting to upset the apple cart to ‘counter China’. Xi for his part, has his own ‘manifest destiny’ delusions.
….’
Aye. There’s the rub. Xi controls ALL the key decision making institutions in China. He is the effective boss of the PLA and the PLAN. Nothing happens without his say so. And, yes, he has that Hitlerian sort of mind set: today Hong Kong, tomorrow Taiwan…
or graham richardson still trotted out as a supozid labor party elder statesman desbite friendship with morrison and giving the party obead and dastyari which is whiy state labor is in opposition foor a decade desbite the most cerupt nsw government in power then the old gguard gets rid of mckkay foor being to effective in critercizing gladys using poleing as a exxcuse only advantige the invizible minns has is the union strike s and barilarow and elliott
I’m aligning with Aaron newton in condemning Pelosi’s pointless grandstanding.
For goodness sakes, put down the weapons !
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XzEwCc4WVKs
Good to see Victoria’s elective surgey waiting list in trending down.
Daniel Andrews’ $12 Billion pandemic repair plan is taking effect.
Meanwhile, Matthew Guy is flailing about in trying to defend against alleged dodgy behaviour once again.
‘ItzaDream says:
Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 11:27 am
Boerwar @ #384 Saturday, August 6th, 2022 – 11:25 am
Itza
My point is that China has succeeded in ‘normalizing’ a situation in which it behaves terribly badly, all the time.
Yes, like the USA. I know you hate the Chinese. I know you hate the Greens. I know you hate the Teals. Pull back on the hate a bit. It’s not good for you.’
————————————————–
You do realize that you have engaged in some pop psychology to dodge the debate?
I don’t ‘hate’ the Chinese. I feel sorry for most of them. They lack all basic human freedoms. I DO hate the Chinese Government. It is evil personified. It hates democracy. It hates liberal freedoms. It treats its citizens terribly. It is imperialistic. It is militaristic.
I despise the Greens’ cult-like hypocrisy. But I don’t hate them. I feel sorry for the environmentalists in the Greens Party. They have been dudded by the Greens Marxists who are using them in the classic Front Organization manner. I also feel sorry for those Greens who want to see genuine reform in Indigenous policy. They are being played politically by Bandt and Thorpe.
As for hating the Teals, I voted for Pocock.
Which brings us back to the substantial issues around China which you seem to wish to avoid:
China’s language of discourse is threats, bullying, shouting, anger, rage, self-righteousness, belligerence, endless shots fired, missiles fired over the capital city of Taiwan all accompanied by endless ships and planes roaring around. Add to that the endless ideological pissing down on Taiwanese democracy. Add to that targeted threats at Taiwanese political figures – democratically elected. Add to that trade punishments. Add to that refusal to co-operate on climate. And all this terrible behaviour is brought to a screaming, incandescent, foaming crescendo because a single politician visits a democracy for a couple of days.
To me this is like giving a two year old aircraft carriers, fighters, bombers, missile swarms and nuclear weapons and then sitting around to see what happens next.
‘ItzaDream says:
Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 11:25 am
Boerwar @ #380 Saturday, August 6th, 2022 – 11:22 am
If Pocock blocks the passage of the 43% bill he will not get re-elected to the Senate.
What even makes you think he wouldn’t secure its passage?’
—————————————-
I understand he and Lambie are threatening to block it.
‘Jan 6 says:
Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 11:25 am
IMO Taiwan does not need to be a pawn in Geopolitics. It doesn’t need to be ‘resolved’ – It can stay as a stalemate. It should be easy for both sides to keep it that way.
….’
———————–
Independently of anything and everything the West says and does on the matter (and this is something a lot of commentators in the West choose to ignore), Xi has indicated that Taiwan will be resolved by 2027. He has personally nailed that flag to his mast. We have five years to sort out Australia’s policies.
Boerwar @ #394 Saturday, August 6th, 2022 – 11:35 am
Of course I meant the Chinese government, grant me that. As for the Teals, what was it about Dr Ryan should do something useful with her life? And that you voted for Pocock, fine. It was hardly a difficult choice. Which brings us back to why wouldn’t he help pass the legislation, which you suggested he might not, and that that would cost him re-election. Or just negative musings?
Intervening post: “I think he and Lambie are threatening to block it” That would surprise me greatly, Pocock I mean; Lambie is a wild card. Where are you hearing that?
(have to go soon …)
I’m aligning with the sensible centre in condemning xi the pooh’s pointless tantrums.
For goodness sakes, put down the weapons !
Also, imagine thinking that snake lavrov is reasonable!
Boerwar says:
Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 11:25 am
Itza
“My point is that China has succeeded in ‘normalizing’ a situation in which it behaves terribly badly, all the time.”
They have, but in doing so, particularly by floating flotillas of craft around the region, flying dozens of aircraft weekly over Taiwan, exercising hundreds of thousands of troops and now firing missiles over Taiwan into Japanese territorial waters, they’ve also diminished their psychological impact.
Xi must now decide whether to act on his threats (which he appears unsure of doing at least in the very near future) or to implicitly show himself to be the boy who cried wolf. My feel is that he has overreached, at least in as much as his timing is poor. He has been wonderfully successful in building/creating island bases as stepping stones through the region, it was a thoughtful and effective strategy.
Xi now though looks (as you’ve rightly described him) like an angry toddler. He is hoping to bully the region and the US by puffing himself up and looking threatening but if he was serious about attacking Taiwan, he would already have done so imo and with the element of surprise. He now runs the risk of weakening his appearance in the eyes of mainland Chinese.