Something I really should have noted in last week’s post is that the Australian Electoral Commission has now published two-candidate preferred preference flow data from the election, showing how minor party and independent preferences flowed between Labor and the Coalition. The table below shows how Labor’s share increased for the four biggest minor parties and independents collectively (and also its fraction decrease for “others”) from the last election to this and, in the final column, how much difference each made to Labor’s total share of two-party preferred, which was 52.13%.
Note that the third column compares how many preference Labor received with how many they would have if preference flows had been last time, which is not the same thing as how many preferences they received. Labor in fact got nearly 2% more two-party vote share in the form of Greens preferences at this election because the Greens primary vote was nearly 2% higher this time.
State and territory by-election:
• Six candidates for the August 20 by-election in the Northern Territory seat of Fannie Bay, in ballot paper order: Brent Potter, described in a report as a “government adviser, army veteran and father of four”, for Labor; independent George Mamouzellos; independent Raj Samson Rajwin, who was a Senate candidate for the United Australia Party; Jonathan Parry of the Greens; independent Leah Potter; and Ben Hosking, “small business owner and former police officer”, for the Country Liberals.
• Following the resignation of Labor member Jo Siejka, a by-election will be held for the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Pembroke on September 10. Siejka defeated a Liberal candidate by 8.65% to win the eastern Hobart seat at the periodic election in 2019. There will also be a recount of 2021 election ballots in Franklin to determine which of the three unelected Liberals will replace Jacquie Petrusma following her resignation announcement a fortnight ago. As Kevin Bonham explains, the order of probability runs Bec Enders, Dean Young and James Walker.
• Still no sign of a date for Western Australia’s North West Central by-election.
I’ll be fascinated to hear what Lambie’s concrns are with the climate bill.
Since voting to remove the price on carbon I can’t remember hearing her express much of opinion on the issue.
Rex Douglas says:
Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 11:31 am
I’m aligning with Aaron newton in condemning Pelosi’s pointless grandstanding.
“For goodness sakes, put down the weapons !”
And yet Pelosi made no threats and carried no weapons, she merely exercised her international rights to visit another region with their permission and encouragement. Doesn’t seem too unreasonable really. The US fired no weapons nor did it build military establishments on internationally disputed islands. So who really is bullying and grandstanding?
I see we might have some willing participants on this blog for my world’s biggest freedom of navigation super fun fest to the Taiwan Straits. Sadly I won’t be able to participate but I’m glad I’ve generated interest. Can’t wait to see the ASPI bods flying up the straits on the locals Sea-Doo yelling freedom.
‘Barney in Cherating says:
Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 11:44 am
I’ll be fascinated to hear what Lambie’s concrns are with the climate bill.
Since voting to remove the price on carbon I can’t remember hearing her express much of opinion on the issue.’
—————————–
Those who cheer the cross bench, per se, would no doubt be wanting to defend Lambie’s recording of horse trading. Lambie may well want something for her electorate that has zero to do with the climate.
Aaron newton at 11:29 am
Richo, Rum Corp State to his bootstraps.
Then Cronus the US will recognise Taiwan next and should have done so before the visit of Speaker Pelosi. Right. Cause Taiwan is officially recognised as part of China. I don’t think the Chinese invited Pelosi. Under the Peter Dutton view of the world she should have been sent to offshore detention.
wranslide at 11:53 am
Nah, ‘ASPI bods’ are very keen on other people doing the dying. They specialise in fine rhetoric, heroic poses and promoting sales of their sponsors’ products.
The government only needs the vote of David Pocock, or one other in the Senate. So why the intense focus on the JLN?
Haha. Yes. Poroti. You are correct. ASPI does alot of thinking and talking. Leave it to the working class kids to do the dying.
Cronus @ #402 Saturday, August 6th, 2022 – 11:49 am
Pelosi is more than someone exercising her international rights. She is the third major holder of power in the US Government, except acting without that administration’s (overt) endorsement. Xi would be called pussy boy whatever he did – nothing, for doing nothing, or sabre rattling, for sabre rattling – so guess going for sabre rattling was pretty much on the cards. And she, and they, knew that.
Interesting to see P1’s negative comments in regards to offshore wind farms.
While she’s quick to point out the negatives, she completely fails to point out the major positives.
Offshore wind farms are able to be placed in locations that have strong consistent prevailing winds. They are not subject to diurnal variations that the proximity to land brings so they produce a much more consistent output throughout the day and night.
It’s interesting that her gut reaction is to go negative on positive moves to transition to renewables.
Boerwarsays:
Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 11:53 am
If that turns out to be the case, then the appropriate response would be, GAGF.
ItzaDream
You see, I would describe building military bases on internationally disputed islands and now firing missiles over Taiwan and into Japanese territorial waters as a very significant over reaction to Pelosi visiting Taiwan wouldn’t you say? How do you feel the US should react to the building of military bases on multiple internationally disputed islands? In terms of responses, I would say America’s use of Pelosi was extremely mild in comparison with the above facts in the minds of most reasonable folk.
Barney in Cherating @ #411 Saturday, August 6th, 2022 – 12:01 pm
There is little point in engaging with you until you acknowledge that fossil fuels have already damaged the planet beyond our ability to repair it, and will continue to damage it further as long as we continue to use them.
I think the focus for the November Vic election now turns away from the tainted Matthew Guy/Vic Libs and towards how many seats the Greens and Teal can gain …?
Cronus America has enough bases around the world to go around. How would the world react if the Chinese air craft carriers or Russians or the ASPI sea doos start floating off the coast of the US for a bit.
Rex Douglas @ #394 Saturday, August 6th, 2022 – 11:35 am
Further…
Cronus @ #413 Saturday, August 6th, 2022 – 12:08 pm
Cronus, (enjoying the discussion, but really have to get off the board) – The bases are not a reaction to Pelosi’s visit. Pelosi’s visit is part of the reaction to the bases. Which I don’t endorse in any way, manner, or form. The other question, is what would the US do if China or a foreign power built bases in the Gulf of Mexico, or Cuba even. Rattle sabres probably. My position is that I don’t think Pelosi’s visit achieved anything in the way of dealing with the situation. That’s all I’m saying. The Americans are basically pretty shit at soft diplomacy, which happens when you usually shoot your way of a situation.
(edit: tidied up a bit)
Just like with Russia, keep appeasing these dictators and you’ll end up with situations like Ukraine. They won’t stop until someone stands up to their bullying.
Wow !! – https://twitter.com/DavidPocock/status/1555738697152483328
wranslide says:
Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 11:56 am
“Then Cronus the US will recognise Taiwan next and should have done so before the visit of Speaker Pelosi. Right. Cause Taiwan is officially recognised as part of China. I don’t think the Chinese invited Pelosi. Under the Peter Dutton view of the world she should have been sent to offshore detention.”
Perhaps the US will recognise Taiwan in the future, I’m not privy to their intentions. In the meantime, my understanding is that there is considerable disagreement among the international community as to Taiwan’s official status but certainly there’s no clear agreement one way or the other. The obvious reason for this is simple, two superpowers with clearly opposing views dispute formal recognition one way or the other and Taiwan, due to its size and proximity to China is too prudent to declare one way or the other. Taiwan does appear however to prize its democracy and its situation is vastly different to that of Hong Kong.
Reading of history shows that perceived Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan is at best precarious. From a security perspective I’m sure China would like to own/occupy Taiwan. From an international perspective, until this ambiguity is resolved, presumably through Taiwan making an official declaration, it’s position will remain internationally disputed. This therefore leaves Taiwan, as a democracy, free to invite whomever it wishes to visit.
The decision of Pelosi to visit could reasonably be construed as inflammatory but let us not pretend that China’s clear contravention of international norms in subsuming internationally disputed islands for purely military purposes to dominate the broader region is less so. Clearly, it is far worse and I suspect Pelosi’s visit was the diplomatic response to China’s actions.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/shooters-party-founder-john-tingle-dies-aged-90-20220806-p5b7ri.html?
@Itza:
“ Bob Carr pens his thoughts on Taiwan, more quick notes than elegant essay, highlighting the need to rewind the clock back to more balanced days of deflecting hypotheticals and talking up peace.
The new Labor government has tugged Australia’s diplomatic language back to where it had always been before the Turnbull-Dutton-Garnaut heresy. This may be the single most weighty contribution of the Albanese government. Even before the election Albanese and Wong had made it clear they weren’t being influenced by the new orthodoxy that declared it “inconceivable” that Australia would not join a war over Taiwan.
https://johnmenadue.com/bob-carr-keep-the-peace-our-goal/
Wherever I read it I can’t remember, but it’s like a burr in my mind: the usurping of one superpower over another takes of the order of 100 years (though the years are shortening as decades shrink) and the onus is on the waning power to see it happens peacefully, which it never has.”
_______
The WarC@t would disagree, and would probably start throwing around the ‘appeasement’ slur at the drop of the hat, but to my mind Bob Carr absolutely nails it. I have long posted on this blog about the toxic influence that Garnaut had on the man who in my view is the worst Australian PM in living memory. The Garnaut connection also goes a long way to explain the obsessions of 9Faix scribblers like Peter Hartcher as well. The last 5 years have been little short of catastrophic for Australian foreign and defence policy, and most of that lands back on Brian Trumble’s desk, along with his grimma wormtongue, John Garnaut.
Wranslide says:
Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 12:16 pm
“Cronus America has enough bases around the world to go around. How would the world react if the Chinese air craft carriers or Russians or the ASPI sea doos start floating off the coast of the US for a bit.”
Like China does to Australia? Like Russia did with its spy aircraft for decades? These are normal international activities? Nobody likes it hapoening near them but that is the nature of freedom of movement in international airspace and waters. Those who can do and it is an accepted norm. There is no attempt to defend America in my argument.
You appear to be deflecting and seeking strawmen arguments to defend a position on China that is difficult to defend. Perhaps it would be better to stick to the immediate issue (Taiwan) in the understanding of its history as well as the current international context. Taiwan’s position is disputed internationally and until resolved, through its own choice, can make it’s own choices.
I still look forward to your opinions regarding China’s subsuming of internationally disputed islands contravening international norms and processes in order to dominate the Indo- Pacific.
“Interesting to see P1’s negative comments in regards to offshore wind farms.”
Not so much. I think they / it represent a school of thought that prioritizes blaming for where we are over actually doing things that will get us into a better position.
Are the ALP perfect? No.
Are they the best bet for an Australian Government that will actually do and support change and development that will address climate change (as best we can given the current state of play)…Yup they are.
Greens talk a good game but actually DO sweet FA and have ZERO influence when the Coalition is in Govt.
However, historically, they do have influence when an ALP Govt is in place. Now that there are Indies and Teals in place that are inclined (for now) to broadly back the ALP’s positions to ACTUALLY GET SOMETHING DONE the Greens will be a bit toey about how that develops as it may dilute their influence. Expect a bit of huff and puff for appearances sake but thats politics for profile…not unexpected from any party or pollies. 🙂
Off shore wind is an interesting one. Seems to me that its a classic of mainly private investment, in BIG $, starting to come in as soon as we get a Govt that signals and begins to implement supportive policy. Hmmmm ……… policy signals changing behavior…..who’d a thunk it. 🙂
Anyhow, there will always be people like P1 who would rather complain, blame and whinge that actually see REAL change on anything other than exactly their terms and timetable. Greens party in general probably have more than their fair share of those types but thats just the way it is. They are actually an impediment to what they profess to support, but i think they are sadly just part of the normal political ecology.
At the moment me happy with direction of the new govt. I actually do have a bit of faith that the ALP will be able to navigate the politics ahead. Going to do a bit of reading on peoples positions in the Senate.
The Australian Senate composition is:
Labor: 26
Green: 12
Pocock: 1 (small-l liberal / Green-ish)
Lambie: 2 (populist / centre to centre-right / localist)
Coalition: 32
Nutjob: 3
To pass, a motion requires 39 votes.
Labor’s climate bill has 38 in favour, 35 against with three votes up for grabs.
I would have thought that a Green-tinged independent like Pocock would support the bill, but that’s not a given. Maybe he lets the perfect be the enemy of the good, I don’t know. Labor has to talk to him and the Lambites on this and probably most contested bills in this term of Parliament.
Andrew Earlwood the w@rcat will simply cry that you are bullying her and that Bob Carr is an apologist for China. Although it might be hard for her to do given his status in the ALP. Bob Carr has made and will continue to make fantastic contributions to the foreign policy debate in this country. Would prefer to listen to the likes of him and Keating than the war cry rumblings of people like w@rcat.
@cronus:
“ Reading of history shows that perceived Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan is at best precarious. ”
Successive waves of Han Chinese migration to Formosa have completely twisted the issue sideways.
At the moment, BOTH the scions of the KMT (who still form a very sizeable pat of the Taiwanese population) and the ChiComms claim each other’s territory as their own: they both peddle ONE CHINA and dream of a Gotterdamarang like final showdown where the winner takes all. In fact, the notion that Taiwan is in effect a government in exile for the whole of china is baked into that entity’s constitution.
Younger Taiwanese, and those Han Chinese whose residence doesn’t trace back to the KMT’s fleeing of the mainland in 1949, think this whole pretence is daft. However, there is a decided lack of enthusiasm for the throwing off of the fictions of the past and the declaration of full independence. Probably because they are more interested with trade, commerce and travel between the island and the mainland than the current wave of posturing. In fact, it is pretty obvious, isn’t it? the current tensions are entirely the result of astro turfing and NOT because of any real consideration for the Taiwanese themselves. Rather, this is all about two superpowers leaning into each other.
Rex Douglassays:
Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 12:19 pm
_____________________
I always find it better to rely on more independent news sources rather than http://www.premier.vic.gov spin
ItzaDream
“My position is that I don’t think Pelosi’s visit achieved anything in the way of dealing with the situation. That’s all I’m saying. The Americans are basically pretty shit at soft diplomacy, which happens when you usually shoot your way of a situation.”
Agreed, America’s soft diplomacy is often poor which is why I see the use of Pelosi as perhaps their strongest yet most diplomatic (in terms of not using force) effort yet. There had to be a response to China’s action’s in the Indo-Pacific otherwise they’ll continue to take what they want. In good news, the US on this occasion did not use weaponry to shoot its way to a solution, probably because it’s not sure it’s a war that it can win. I think Xi’s overreach with missiles serves little purpose. Xi now looks a bit like Kim-Jong Un, always threatening and firing off rockets but each time losing gravitas.
I think the past week’s activities will likely ensure the status quo into the near future at least which is a good thing. A war over Taiwan for all three entities ( US, China and Taiwan) is a lose-lose-lose scenario.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/video/2022/aug/06/the-week-in-australian-politics-with-amy-remeikis-a-historic-week-video
Just watched this. Ok, i think Amy Remieikis is wonderful….moving on. It finished with the Deputy Speaker / Angus Taylor thing. I will admit to being at a complete and utter loss as to what Taylor was about. I mean, is he THAT brainlocked into a mental rut that he is incapable of using any other term than Mr Speaker?? Ok, the odd linguistic slip back into what has been normal i can see. But this was either deliberate and him trying to make some point?? or is he REALLY that much of an idiot?? Ok, if it was Barnyard i wouldnt question it.
“Labor has to talk to him and the Lambites on this and probably most contested bills in this term of Parliament.”
Labor has a record of doing stuff like this quite successfully. I suspect that they will remember the lesson of ExPM Abbott who treated Lambie with such arrogance and disdain when he needed her vote.
Taylormade @ #430 Saturday, August 6th, 2022 – 12:54 pm
I acknowledge it is very difficult for some to see numbers falling rather than increasing.
Poor old Neil Mitchell yelling at the clouds…
Meanwhile more and more level crossings disappearing…
Elective surgery list falling after billions invested into health…
Vic unemployment figure at record lows…
Victoria economy rated #1 in Australia…
Neil is a silly old coot.
wranslide @ #428 Saturday, August 6th, 2022 – 12:52 pm
You really are a supercilious poc, wranslide. Oo er, you’ve got a new epithet to fling at me! Although I do note that the equally rude and disrespectful male attention seeker and pontificator extraordinaire, Andrew-Earlwood, thought of it first. BRAVO!
Carry on with the mutual admiration society, guys and vilification of moi. You do know how repetitively mean, spiteful and pathetic it all looks, don’t you?
Oh, and fyi, I’m not into hero worship, but you go on revering articles in The Australian by the guy who didn’t even realise that The Australia China Relations Institute he once led was a Chinese disinformation play. 😆
Bob Carr, reaping the rewards of Chinese sycophantology:
https://www.afr.com/policy/what-you-should-know-about-bob-carr-and-china-20181105-h17jic
Anyhoo, continue on with the PB China Sycophantology Society, guys. I’m constantly amused how much effort you put into it.
Andrews can spin all he likes but the health system will take years to recover and some think it might never.
av
A response to the last lot of nonsense you posted. In supporting Russian aggression Amnesty International has done itself reputation damage. That is for sure.
As to your latest post, I wonder why Ukraine is successfully retaking territory?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/05/zelenskiy-and-envoys-attack-amnesty-report-on-endangering-civilians-in-russia-crossfire
What a vile little warmonger you are C@t.
Dutton seems to be strugiling to make any impact ass opposition leader he started badly in his first media conference when he claimed regrett foor boicotting the apoligie but then saidused chield abuse as his excuse proving his not sory also said liberals dont need to learn any lessons from defeat and blamed albanese foor the power bill increasis desbite them happening on his watch his abott negativity failed when the boats never arived and labor will not repeat rudd gillard mistake off letting the argument on liberal terms
cronis have to disagree emaginwhen china which im not a fan off viseted the solamon islands and pacifick the us backed security ttried to stop it and are triying to presure china to build no basis yet america can have one in every country at least asio has stopt the rubish abbout china sbying on us as some sort off security threat that is what all sbys do we did it foor years including on east teamore so china are just doing what we do
Wonder when aspi exberts will comment on human rights abuse in saldiarabia israil tercey which has no democrasy and us or is aspi just a us defence mouth pease on aspi new greens senater david shoebridges brother michael is a senyor oficial there desbite greens anti war stance
Wonder when aspi exberts will comment on human rights abuse in saldiarabia israil tercey which has no democrasy and us or is aspi just a us defence mouth pease on aspi new greens senater david shoebridges brother michael is a senyor oficial there desbite greens anti war stan
C@t vs the NSW Right!
The China Military is making a fool of itself. Best cause of action is to ignore their ranting and raving.
As to Chine becoming a major economic power. The Chinese Military has burnt that possibility. China’s success depends on free navigation of the seas which is underpinned by the USA. I suspect the USA is getting fed up with the Chinese Militarism.
noticed with watching it is very desterbing his sexualiziation off politics especialy constent referentsis to chield abuse and abuse of woman yet covered up aleged asults in his own party and was cristian porters number one backer dutton seems to strongly apose indeginis rights even calling foor abolition off wellcome to country he tthinks the path to victory is to beout doone nation and hansongoing fulll trump but unlike trump dutton is unlikable and lacks the showminship that made him electible
know his pariting jasinta price but i thought that after the deves exberement that this type of nast scape goating andculture war identity politics does not work we do not want to be like the republicans
”
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 9:48 am
@Ven:
Chutzpah for the SMH to be asking “why”, given the billions in free adverting they have given in campaigning for, promoting, enabling and justifying the marketing scam for developers that has been the O’Farrell-Baird-BinChook-Domicron crime syndicate for the past 12 years.
I reckon they might need a distraction, lest more folk ask the big “why” of 9/Faix: I’m sure there’s a memo from Chairman Costello on the way to the Editor’s office now – quick! Deploy chaff; kick that cardboard box over in the corner and roll out the wine soaked Kate McClymont dwelling therein to regurgitate another Eddie/Joe/Macca story. ASAP!!!
”
AE
I don’t know what happens to NSW politicians in winter season, especially to LNP politicians. Last year Delta was unleashed and this year Pork Barilaro was unleashed.
Either their heads are in their d*cks or their d*cks are in their heads. Either way their thinking freezes. 🙂
yes aspi dont actualy fight in wars strange that shuebridges brother is a senyor oficial there they must have very different political views just before election former aspi head petter jenings wrote a laughable column triying to argue that labor was just as bad as the liberals on china foor not promising to rip up there port off darwin sale desbite admitting it was now imposible and effectively admited that liberals have been closer to ccp in recent years then labor remember andrew rob and nt chief jiles working foor port of darwin owner land bridge jiles still working there
”
Wranslidesays:
Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 12:16 pm
Cronus America has enough bases around the world to go around. How would the world react if the Chinese air craft carriers or Russians or the ASPI sea doos start floating off the coast of the US for a bit.
”
There are roughly 750 US foreign military bases; they are spread across 80 nations! After the U.S is the UK, but they only have 145 bases. Russia has about 3 dozen bases, and China just five. This implies that the U.S has three times as many bases as all other countries combined.2 June 2022
Rare hummingbird last seen in 2010 rediscovered in Colombia
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/aug/05/rare-hummingbird-rediscovered-colombia-age-of-extinction