Preference flows and by-elections (open thread)

A look at preference flow data from the 2019 and 2022 elections, and the latest on looming by-elections in the Northern Territory, Tasmania and (sort of) Western Australia.

Something I really should have noted in last week’s post is that the Australian Electoral Commission has now published two-candidate preferred preference flow data from the election, showing how minor party and independent preferences flowed between Labor and the Coalition. The table below shows how Labor’s share increased for the four biggest minor parties and independents collectively (and also its fraction decrease for “others”) from the last election to this and, in the final column, how much difference each made to Labor’s total share of two-party preferred, which was 52.13%.

Note that the third column compares how many preference Labor received with how many they would have if preference flows had been last time, which is not the same thing as how many preferences they received. Labor in fact got nearly 2% more two-party vote share in the form of Greens preferences at this election because the Greens primary vote was nearly 2% higher this time.

State and territory by-election:

• Six candidates for the August 20 by-election in the Northern Territory seat of Fannie Bay, in ballot paper order: Brent Potter, described in a report as a “government adviser, army veteran and father of four”, for Labor; independent George Mamouzellos; independent Raj Samson Rajwin, who was a Senate candidate for the United Australia Party; Jonathan Parry of the Greens; independent Leah Potter; and Ben Hosking, “small business owner and former police officer”, for the Country Liberals.

• Following the resignation of Labor member Jo Siejka, a by-election will be held for the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Pembroke on September 10. Siejka defeated a Liberal candidate by 8.65% to win the eastern Hobart seat at the periodic election in 2019. There will also be a recount of 2021 election ballots in Franklin to determine which of the three unelected Liberals will replace Jacquie Petrusma following her resignation announcement a fortnight ago. As Kevin Bonham explains, the order of probability runs Bec Enders, Dean Young and James Walker.

• Still no sign of a date for Western Australia’s North West Central by-election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,594 comments on “Preference flows and by-elections (open thread)”

Comments Page 10 of 32
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  1. Ven
    USA underpins freedom of navigation, and thus the global economy. China is playing with navigation to the first chain of island.

    The biggest risk in all this is the USA losing interest and withdrawing inward. The USA has the resources to do this. China does not have the resources to survive isolation.

  2. Bob Carr is the most successful political ALP leader of this century. He was NSW ALP leader for 17 years, Premier of NSW for 10 years and Foreign minister of Gillard government.
    Keating was the most successful Treasurer of Australia and PM of Australia for 4 1/2 years.

    That is all.
    USA came to the resue of Australia during WW2.
    Afterwards Australia participated in every American war after WW2 except US invasion of Granada.

  3. There seems to be recousrse to what happened 80 years ago, to legalisms and the like. n similar situations in the territory in question has a referendum on independence. If the Taiwanese vote for independence then the just outcome is an independent Taiwan.

  4. Ven @ #453 Saturday, August 6th, 2022 – 2:15 pm

    Bob Carr is the most successful political ALP leader of this century. He was NSW ALP leader for 17 years, Premier of NSW for 10 years and Foreign minister of Gillard government.
    Keating was the most successful Treasurer of Australia and PM of Australia for 4 1/2 years.

    That is all.

    Yep, flattery gets old men everywhere, Ven. Especially to positions of esteem they no longer should hold.


  5. zoomstersays:
    Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 2:19 pm
    Ven

    My brother in law (Australian Defence Force) took part in the invasion of Grenada…he was stationed in the US at the time.

    I am sorry zoomster that I got it wrong about Australian participation in American invasion of Grenada. My intention is not to demean the bravery of Australian soldiers during that invasion.
    But my point was not even Britain, who has “special” relationship with USA, did not participate like Australia did, irrespective of whoever was in power in Australia.

  6. davo
    1. no…
    2. bad for… something, anything…
    3. must be owned by the state.
    4. But OK if personally approved by Bandt

  7. Oh w@rcat. Does your branch meet on Monday or Tuesday nights? The sad part is that you think you matter. But really we just need you to offend the least amount of people possible when you hand out. As for Bob Carr the most informed foreign policy commentator in Oz. He like you started as a US apologist but he has the smarts to realise it’s all over.

  8. I’d have thought China might well look at what is happening in the USA at the moment and calculate that if they wait until Mr Trump is back in the White House, they’ll be able to get Taiwan for the price of a few hotel sites.


  9. Player One says:
    Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 2:33 pm

    davo @ #457 Saturday, August 6th, 2022 – 2:28 pm

    What’s the green’s position on offshore wind farms?

    That they are better than onshore fossil-fuelled power stations, but not as good as onshore renewables?

    What is the rational for that position?

  10. Player Onesays:
    Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 12:15 pm

    Barney in Cherating @ #411 Saturday, August 6th, 2022 – 12:01 pm

    Interesting to see P1’s negative comments in regards to offshore wind farms.

    There is little point in engaging with you until you acknowledge that fossil fuels have already damaged the planet beyond our ability to repair it, and will continue to damage it further as long as we continue to use them.

    ?????????

    Have you found your time machine?

    The idea that we could ever undo the damage is nonsense. The moment an organism establishes itself in a new environment that environment will never be the same again.

    The challenge for humanity is not to restore the past, but to learn how to live in way that minimises our impact on the environment and thus minimise the pace at which we effect those changes to occur.

    It is well understood and accepted that our reliance on fossil fuels to meet our energy needs has created an imbalance that will drive changes to our environment at a faster pace than we can deal with, so we need to change to alternate means of creating power ASAP.

    That transition needs to be done in a way that continues to meet our power needs, in fact it needs to exceed our current requirements as areas like transportation change their energy needs to electricity placing an increasing demand on the grid.

    Currently our energy generation distribution network is focused on our major power plants, so if a new renewable farm doesn’t have access to this existing transmission network it is possibly that they will only be able move a percentage of the energy they create onto the grid.

    The 6 offshore wind zones announced by the Government would seem to be the Government saying that if you create wind farms in these zones there will be transmission lines to allow full access to the grid.

    Initiatives like this allow the Government to open up new areas to renewable investment as they upgrade the grid.

    Anyway you seem to have now moved from an unreal starting position to an unreal finishing one.


  11. frednksays:
    Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 2:13 pm
    Ven
    USA underpins freedom of navigation, and thus the global economy. China is playing with navigation to the first chain of island.

    The biggest risk in all this is the USA losing interest and withdrawing inward. The USA has the resources to do this. China does not have the resources to survive isolation.

    frednk
    Here is a random thought.
    Japan, South Korea and Australia need USA permission to properly equip themselves militarily.
    If Japan, South Korea, Australia and Indonesia are properly equipped militarily, then they along with India are sufficient to take down China in a war. US is not needed.

  12. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 1:44 pm
    What a vile little warmonger you are C@t.
    ________________________________________________________
    Andrew, I have to take exception to you insulting a fellow poster like that.
    As far as I have read C@t’s posts, she has only defended the rights of people defending themselves when they are invaded or threatened by other countries. Ukraine being one obvious case, Taiwan another.
    I don’t think that’s being a warmonger, vile, little or otherwise.

  13. Pedantsays:
    Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 2:40 pm
    “I’d have thought China might well look at what is happening in the USA at the moment and calculate that if they wait until Mr Trump is back in the White House.”

    Are we at the stage where the US is definitely on the Christmas card list but missing from the family reunions?

  14. Imagine not investing in NSW infrastructure for 10 whole years, and then hitching your wagon to mass murderer xi the pooh, just what gives there?


  15. Themunzsays:
    Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 2:51 pm
    Pedantsays:
    Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 2:40 pm
    “I’d have thought China might well look at what is happening in the USA at the moment and calculate that if they wait until Mr Trump is back in the White House.”

    Are we at the stage where the US is definitely on the Christmas card list but missing from the family reunions?

    No. Not when it comes to Europe, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea and Australia.

  16. wranslide @ #462 Saturday, August 6th, 2022 – 2:36 pm

    Oh w@rcat. Does your branch meet on Monday or Tuesday nights? The sad part is that you think you matter. But really we just need you to offend the least amount of people possible when you hand out. As for Bob Carr the most informed foreign policy commentator in Oz. He like you started as a US apologist but he has the smarts to realise it’s all over.

    You are a pathetic poc, wranslide. Nothing much has changed from your first comment here until your last. Go on reading Bob Carr in The Australian. It suits you down to a tee.

    I’ll keep commenting here for as long as I like. My opinion is worth as much as anyone else’s. Though, with your attitudinal bias, are you even a Labor supporter? You sound like an embittered Labor Rat in the Latham mould. He lost his mind and his soul too.


  17. Ven says:
    Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 2:51 pm

    frednk
    Here is a random thought.
    Japan, South Korea and Australia need USA permission to properly equip themselves militarily.
    If Japan, South Korea, Australia and Indonesia are properly equipped militarily, then they along with India are sufficient to take down China in a war. US is not needed.

    China is behaving badly, but is this a reason to “take down China”?

  18. Player Onesays:
    Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 3:02 pm

    Barney in Cherating @ #466 Saturday, August 6th, 2022 – 2:50 pm

    Anyway you seem to have now moved from an unreal starting position to an unreal finishing one.

    Just let us all know when you are willing to acknowledge it.

    Obviously what I wrote was too challenging for your comprehension skills.

  19. What a vile little warmonger you are C@t.

    Andrew Earlwood, while we’re overreaching again, I’d like to point out that I looked into your assertion a little while back that Player One had “hectored poor old Trog (Sorrensen) for months on this blog with your smug ignorance as he slowly died of cancer”, and it did not check out.

  20. William Bowe @ #476 Saturday, August 6th, 2022 – 3:07 pm

    What a vile little warmonger you are C@t.

    Andrew Earlwood, while we’re overreaching again, I’d like to point out that I looked into your assertion a little back that Player One had “hectored poor old Trog (Sorrsensen) for months on this blog with your smug ignorance as he slowly died of cancer”, and it did not check out.

    Thank you, William.

  21. Player Onesays:
    Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 3:08 pm

    Barney in Cherating @ #475 Saturday, August 6th, 2022 – 3:04 pm

    Obviously what I wrote was too challenging for your comprehension skills.

    No, just irrelevant.

    So my point that it has always been impossible to undo the damage is irrelevant to your point that there was a time when we could have.

    😆

  22. Barney in Cherating @ #480 Saturday, August 6th, 2022 – 3:19 pm

    So my point that it has always been impossible to undo the damage is irrelevant to your point that there was a time when we could have

    Here is what I wrote:

    There is little point in engaging with you until you acknowledge that fossil fuels have already damaged the planet beyond our ability to repair it, and will continue to damage it further as long as we continue to use them.

    Which is the bit you think is about time or time machines?

  23. P1,

    The only way to do what you suggest is to go back to just before the industrial age and stop it from ever happening.

  24. Boerwar says:
    Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 2:19 pm
    There seems to be recousrse to what happened 80 years ago, to legalisms and the like. n similar situations in the territory in question has a referendum on independence. If the Taiwanese vote for independence then the just outcome is an independent Taiwan.
    ________________________________________________________
    An internationally-recognised independent Taiwan would be the most logical and just outcome. But Taiwan has been effectively independent of China for the past 73 years. China has also repeatedly threatened to invade the island, if it actually declares independence.
    This is probably why popular support for formal independence has declined in Taiwan in recent years.
    So long as the world, including Taiwan, go along with this fiction of Taiwan being a part of China, Beijing may feel its pride is being respected without the need to resort to a costly and possibly catastrophic war.
    But will a point be reached where China feels it has to live up to its boast of an eventual reunification with Taiwan?
    I agree with those who say the best approach is to keep kicking this can down the road, for decade after decade if necessary. We should go along with the farce of a Chinese Taiwan while publically reassuring China and allowing Taiwan to remain effectively independent.

  25. Sir Henry! It seems you have called me out, damn ye!

    “ Andrew, I have to take exception to you insulting a fellow poster like that.”

    Grass for breakfast in Calais it is then!

    As the challenged party I exercise my rights to choose the terms of our engagement. What!

    So I choose … claw hammers … with no quarter!

  26. https://online.ucpress.edu/currenthistory/article-abstract/35/208/364/166919/Chou-En-lai-on-Taiwan-Fighting?redirectedFrom=fulltext

    Very little has changed wrt Taiwan since 1949. China has not resiled from its claims and nor has it resorted to the exercise of its claimed sovereignty.

    The US remains the guarantor of Taiwan’s de facto independence, as it also underwrites the territories and legal status of South Korea and Japan. This has been the settled position since the mid-point of the 20th century. There’s almost no chance at all that this will change.

    The relationship between China and the US consists of very more than the posturing over Taiwan, and China’s foreign policy is comprised of much more than than the repetition of its rights wrt Taiwan.

    Who benefits from the elevation of tensions in this matter? The warrior parties in China and, in this country, the Lying Reactionaries.

  27. This is kind of amusing …

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/aug/05/young-liberals-blame-election-defeat-on-climate-inaction-and-coordinated-attack-on-net-zero-target

    In a submission to the Liberals’ election review, the youth wing of the party found climate change was a “top election issue”, but also blamed failure to recruit women and to deliver a national integrity commission as causes for defeat.

    One of the Young Liberals must have decided to sneak a peek at the Teal’s campaign strategy, and finally the penny dropped 🙂

  28. Player Onesays:
    Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 3:38 pm

    Barney in Cherating @ #482 Saturday, August 6th, 2022 – 3:30 pm

    The only way to do what you suggest is to go back to just before the industrial age and stop it from ever happening.

    I don’t believe I am “suggesting” anything of the sort.

    Well that’s when the damage started and was already beyond our repair.

  29. @Barnie:

    “ C@t,

    Are you suggesting that Carr’s opinion would different if it was published in a different publication?”

    ______

    C@t obviously didn’t bother reading the article before flying off the handle and dragging Clive Hamilton into it in aid of her smudge of Carr.

    If she had, she’s have realised that Carr was writing on Menadue’s blog, not the Oz.

    If she’d read the article, and possessed a modicum of self awareness, she’s also realise that ‘her peoples’ are actually the Duttons and Paynes of this world.

  30. When China commences its kinetic war against Taiwan there will probably be a global meltdown in the manufacturing of anything that requires chips.

  31. Barney in Cherating @ #489 Saturday, August 6th, 2022 – 3:45 pm

    Player Onesays:
    Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 3:38 pm

    Barney in Cherating @ #482 Saturday, August 6th, 2022 – 3:30 pm

    The only way to do what you suggest is to go back to just before the industrial age and stop it from ever happening.

    I don’t believe I am “suggesting” anything of the sort.

    Well that’s when the damage started and was already beyond our repair.

    This has nothing to do with anything I have ever posted. You are pursuing an rabbit entirely of your own imagining here. Let us know if you catch it.

  32. P1,

    Your whole point was that the point of being able to undo the damage had been passed.

    I’m suggesting that that point was when the Industrial Revolution started, when do you consider that point to have been?

  33. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 3:38 pm
    Sir Henry! It seems you have called me out, damn ye!

    “ Andrew, I have to take exception to you insulting a fellow poster like that.”

    Grass for breakfast in Calais it is then!

    As the challenged party I exercise my rights to choose the terms of our engagement. What!

    So I choose … claw hammers … with no quarter!
    _________________________________________________________
    Perhaps I should say my second will greet your second at dawn. Is that what they said in the old days? I don’t really know.
    But seriously AE, I thought you were being a bit harsh on someone who, from what I can see, is not a warmonger. My definition of a warmonger is someone who desires a resort to armed conflict when there is a peaceful alternative to resolving the issue at hand.
    I cannot see how C@t could be so categorised.

  34. It’s been a few days since I posted a QLD Covid update.

    Australia wide summary, https://www.covid19data.com.au/
    .......... Cases ... Deaths
    NSW ..... 11,998 ....... 30
    VIC ...... 6,261 ....... 24
    QLD ...... 4,174 ....... 18
    SA ....... 1,959 ....... 13
    WA ....... 2,846 ........ 2
    TAS ........ 651 ........ 0
    NT ......... 231 ........ 0
    ACT ........ 579 ........ 1

  35. Sir Henry Parkessays: Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 4:05 pm

    My definition of a warmonger is someone who desires a resort to armed conflict when there is a peaceful alternative to resolving the issue at hand.

    ………………………………………………………………………………………………….

    Reminds me of the plot of the COLD WAR movie – ” The Bedford Incident ”

    The United States Navy destroyer USS Bedford,under the command of Captain Eric Finlander, encouters a submerged Russsian submarine

    Aboard are Ben Munceford, a civilian photojournalist; Commodore Wolfgang Schrepke, a German Navy NATO naval advisor; Ensign Ralston, an inexperienced young officer who is constantly criticized by Finlander for small errors

    Finlander mercilessly harries his prey and the crew becomes increasingly fatigued by the unrelenting pursuit.

    The submarine ignores Finlander’s order to surface and identify itself. The angered captain runs over its snorkel, having it logged as an “unidentified floating object”. He orders Ralston to arm one weapon, then withdraws to a distance to wait for the submerged sub to run out of air and surface.

    He reassures Munceford and Schrepke that he is in command of the situation and that he will not fire first, but “If he fires one, I’ll fire one.”

    A fatigued Ralston mistakes Finlander’s remark as a command to “fire one”. He launches an anti-submarine rocket which destroys the submarine. …….. Sonar then detects four nuclear torpedoes targeting the destroyer.

    One stupid mistake …… and WW 3

  36. Your taxes at work?

    Sydney private schools go on $100m buying bonanza
    It isn’t just rich listers buying up neighbouring homes to make a larger estate for themselves. Private schools are the most prolific buyers of the post-pandemic property boom.

    <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/property/news/sydney-private-schools-go-on-100-million-buying-bonanza-20220803-p5b71x.html">https://www.smh.com.au/property/news/sydney-private-schools-go-on-100-million-buying-bonanza-20220803-p5b71x.html

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