Preference flows and by-elections (open thread)

A look at preference flow data from the 2019 and 2022 elections, and the latest on looming by-elections in the Northern Territory, Tasmania and (sort of) Western Australia.

Something I really should have noted in last week’s post is that the Australian Electoral Commission has now published two-candidate preferred preference flow data from the election, showing how minor party and independent preferences flowed between Labor and the Coalition. The table below shows how Labor’s share increased for the four biggest minor parties and independents collectively (and also its fraction decrease for “others”) from the last election to this and, in the final column, how much difference each made to Labor’s total share of two-party preferred, which was 52.13%.

Note that the third column compares how many preference Labor received with how many they would have if preference flows had been last time, which is not the same thing as how many preferences they received. Labor in fact got nearly 2% more two-party vote share in the form of Greens preferences at this election because the Greens primary vote was nearly 2% higher this time.

State and territory by-election:

• Six candidates for the August 20 by-election in the Northern Territory seat of Fannie Bay, in ballot paper order: Brent Potter, described in a report as a “government adviser, army veteran and father of four”, for Labor; independent George Mamouzellos; independent Raj Samson Rajwin, who was a Senate candidate for the United Australia Party; Jonathan Parry of the Greens; independent Leah Potter; and Ben Hosking, “small business owner and former police officer”, for the Country Liberals.

• Following the resignation of Labor member Jo Siejka, a by-election will be held for the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Pembroke on September 10. Siejka defeated a Liberal candidate by 8.65% to win the eastern Hobart seat at the periodic election in 2019. There will also be a recount of 2021 election ballots in Franklin to determine which of the three unelected Liberals will replace Jacquie Petrusma following her resignation announcement a fortnight ago. As Kevin Bonham explains, the order of probability runs Bec Enders, Dean Young and James Walker.

• Still no sign of a date for Western Australia’s North West Central by-election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,594 comments on “Preference flows and by-elections (open thread)”

Comments Page 11 of 32
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  2. Last week the w@rcat was decrying her treatment on this blog to domestic violence.

    But it seems I must wait til 2049 for some of her premonitions to come true.

    Remember the old 0055 numbers. The w@rcat is no more than that

  3. Boerwarsays: Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 4:36 pm

    phR

    That it has not happened in 77 years is testimony to something or other.

    ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

    Actual Cold War incident

    In October 1962, at the height of the Cuban Missile Crisis, the Soviet submarine B-59 was pursued in the Atlantic Ocean by the U.S. Navy. When the Soviet vessel failed to surface, the destroyers began dropping training depth charges. Unlike in The Bedford Incident, the Americans were not aware that the B-59 was armed with a T-5 nuclear torpedo. The Soviet captain, believing that World War III might have started, wanted to launch the weapon but was over-ruled by his flotilla commander, Vasili Arkhipov, who, by coincidence, was using the boat as his command vessel.

    After an argument, it was agreed that the submarine would surface and await orders from Moscow. It was not until after the fall of the Soviet Union that the existence of the T-5 torpedo and how close the world came to nuclear conflict was made known.

    As I say – one stupid mistake – a Chinese rocket missfires and lands IN Taiwan – instead of OVER Taiwan …… WW3

  6. The Guardian continuing it’s campaign against the Job Agency gravy train:

    Alex North, once a jobseeker and welfare activist and now an organiser with the United Workers Union, recalls his time in the Employability Skills Training program, which is being expanded under Workforce Australia. More than $500m will flow to private providers via the program over the next five years.

    The tasks he was given to fulfil the program included a “scavenger hunt” that involved counting car parks and listing the items in a vending machine at an Adelaide training provider – the winner receiving a freddo frog.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/06/mutual-obligations-the-money-go-round-of-unemployment-industry

  9. Rex Douglas at 5:33 pm
    During the Rudd-Gillard years you would have learned that Labor are just as keen as the Coalition on the ‘mutual obligation’ circus. They’ll do what ever it takes to avoid any accusations of being ‘soft’ on ‘dole bludgers’ .

  12. Apropos nothing to do with the debate, or anything really, except our lovely experience with Taiwanese neighbours:

    A Taiwanese coupe (40s probably) bought the 50 acres over the road. The house was in order, while fairly basic, and there are some sheds and out buildings. The deceased previous owner was head of the local RFS branch, so all good in that department. The Taiwanese gentleman, and a very one at that, had arrived as a teenager, was high schooled here, did economics at Macquarie, has lived around the world and now married, is settled in Sydney, enjoying considerable prosperity. His parents had moved back to Taiwan. Her English is poor. She likes to paint, and has a winning smile. When they visit, there is always a gift: dark peanuts from Taiwan; a Taiwanese pineapple; meditation clothes, hand carried from Taiwan. They are buddhists.

    Toward the end of 2019, I first noticed women with broad brimmed hats and fly nets fastened around their necks cleaning up, raking, and raking. Master Monk was coming from the mountains in Taiwan. They had been looking for quite some time for somewhere and for this somewhere land, Master Monk had given his approval. There is another buddhist monastery not far away; two actually. It’s the vibe.

    They like us, which is nice. Not everyone does. Master Monk asked to visit. He likes dogs. Perhaps there is a Mrs Master Monk, or was she a nun. The women are smart – a Singaporean lawyer, for example. We scored an invite to the installation of the Buddha, and with some tens of other visitors, chanted and with song, went up to Master Monk to be blessed with eucalypt branches dipped in holy waters.

    Then the bush fires came, and Buddha saved everyone. (And the RFS). Covid has seen Master Monk and entourage trapped in Taiwan, and now running a several month retreat up in the mountains, but I think he is coming here toward the end of the year.

    The poorly spoken lovely smile wife teared up last visit when there was now only one dog. I had a candle burning, which pleased her. I said I had a strong sense of dog presence the night before their visit, just some days after we said goodbye to Spot. She noticeably understood, but when I said I felt the dog had come to say she was alright, she said no no, the dog came to see if we were alright, and would move on only when she knew we were alright. She was crying as she told me this.

    Their intent is to set up a retreat, with accomodation for guests. I hope they manage to get it together.

  14. And the scathing attacks Wranslide keeps launching at me ARE the equivalent of a form of Domestic Violence. Verbal attacks can be almost as humiliating and emotionally destructive as physical violence towards women. Of course, never as bad but it’s not an either/or thing.

    I’m shaking and crying as I type this because I just don’t know where the new respectful blog Mr Bowe spoke about, went. I’ve been trying my best to simply engage positively but when this Wranslide individual, Andrew Gold and Taylormade launch unprovoked verbal assaults, equating my living conditions with encouraging vermin, and to a lesser extent, Andrew_Earlwood, who is the one that continually elevates me to the level of blog ridicule, by creating the names the others parrot mindlessly, for daring to have a different opinion, on matters which he thinks he is the resident expert about, or for disagreeing with the sanctification of certain Labor people, it thus becomes virtually impossible to just let it go without saying something about the MEN who are doing this to me. Not one of whom has ever apologised for any of the things they’ve said about me, nor justified any of the assertions they continually make about me or my life.

    I expect better of grown men. I expect better of myself because I know none of what they say about me is in any way true and so I shouldn’t dignify what they say with a response. I will keep trying to behave better myself.

    For god’s sake, I just want to comment on politics and other stuff on a blog.

  16. 9News Sydney@9NewsSyd
    ·
    3m
    #BREAKING: Frightening scenes are emerging tonight from Leichhardt Oval, where dozens of people have fallen from the stands face-planting into the concrete below after a railing gave way. #9News

    This is one of the local footy ovals that lost funding for an upgrade from the Perrottet government. I hope nobody was seriously injured or worse.

  18. Confessions @ #516 Saturday, August 6th, 2022 – 6:29 pm

    9News Sydney@9NewsSyd
    ·
    3m
    #BREAKING: Frightening scenes are emerging tonight from Leichhardt Oval, where dozens of people have fallen from the stands face-planting into the concrete below after a railing gave way. #9News

    This is one of the local footy ovals that lost funding for an upgrade from the Perrottet government. I hope nobody was seriously injured or worse.

    Jeebus. Kiss yourself goodbye Mr Perrottet. How many Millions on the new Sydney Football Stadium again?

  20. Please take care of yourself C@tmomma. The personal stuff this blog descends to is part of why I took a holiday from it. Sending strength.

  21. Andrew_Earlwood @ #490 Saturday, August 6th, 2022 – 3:47 pm

    @Barnie:

    “ C@t,

    Are you suggesting that Carr’s opinion would different if it was published in a different publication?”

    ______

    C@t obviously didn’t bother reading the article before flying off the handle and dragging Clive Hamilton into it in aid of her smudge of Carr.

    If she had, she’s have realised that Carr was writing on Menadue’s blog, not the Oz.

    If she’d read the article, and a modicum of self awareness, she’s also realise that ‘her peoples’ are actually the Duttons and Paynes of this world.

    You’re correct. I was thinking about Carr’s dumb idea to build nuclear power plants on the sites of decommissioned Coal-Fired Power Plants.

    No, the article in Pearls and Irritations admonished Nancy Pelosi for going to Taiwan. As the Chinese would expect him to say on their behalf.

  24. In remembrance, favourite Seekers songs, anyone? “Carnival Is Over” seems appropriate, but maybe a bit obvious. Vale Judith Durham.

  32. C@t

    No, the article in Pearls and Irritations admonished Nancy Pelosi for going to Taiwan. As the Chinese would expect him to say on their behalf.

    You may as well surrender now. The US military and Pentagon are obviously full of Xi supporters and chickens.

    Joe Biden says Pentagon does not support Nancy Pelosi visit to Taiwan

    https://www.ft.com/content/84d06d4b-1888-4149-88f3-abe48278e43b

    U.S. military officials believe it’s “not a good idea” for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to visit Taiwan

    https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/biden-says-military-not-support-nancy-pelosi-visit-taiwan-rcna39259

  33. Kyle Griffin
    @kylegriffin1

    A hearing on whether Rudy Giuliani should be stripped of his D.C. law license has been scheduled for October

  34. We also need to s top the attacks on p1 and reex i think we need a new pole as it seems tonot go to well with we dont have much to discuss

  35. “Amid escalating tensions with the US after Nancy Pelosi’s recent visit to Taiwan, China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, described her visit as a “contemptible farce” on Friday, saying she shot herself in the foot.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/aug/06/china-halts-cooperation-with-us-on-climate-and-military-issues-after-sending-missiles-over-taiwan-live-news?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

    The only comtemptible farce is xi the pooh and his fellow chicommie clowns carrying on like pork chops.

  36. We also need to s top the attacks on p1 and reex i think we need a new pole as it seems tonot go to well with we dont have mu thepersonal abuse agaisti know uit might be anoying that some people findfault with labor but they should be attacked when ever they poast

  37. poroti @ #531 Saturday, August 6th, 2022 – 6:56 pm

    C@t

    No, the article in Pearls and Irritations admonished Nancy Pelosi for going to Taiwan. As the Chinese would expect him to say on their behalf.

    You better surrender now. The US military and Pentagon are obviously full of Xi supporters and chickens.

    Joe Biden says Pentagon does not support Nancy Pelosi visit to Taiwan

    https://www.ft.com/content/84d06d4b-1888-4149-88f3-abe48278e43b
    U.S. military officials believe it’s “not a good idea” for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to visit Taiwan
    https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/biden-says-military-not-support-nancy-pelosi-visit-taiwan-rcna39259

    The White House remained non-committal so as to not give support for the trip from the President. Though he could have stopped her going if he really wanted to.

    As I understand it there was an implicit message to China from America with the visit that America would not stand idly by while China escalated tensions in the Asia-Pacific Region. So a very visible show of support of Taiwan by the Speaker was allowed to go ahead by the White House, with the President and the pentagon spokesman making statements:

    The United States will ensure that Speaker Nancy Pelosi has a “safe and secure” visit to Taiwan if she goes, National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said on Monday.

    … Last week, President Joe Biden told reporters that the U.S. military believed her potential visit was “not a good idea.”

    When it comes to Taiwan, “those who play with fire will eventually get burned,” Chinese President Xi Jinping warned Biden in a phone call last week. In recent days, however, U.S. officials have concluded that China’s threats are only an intimidation tactic, a congressional official told POLITICO on Monday.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/01/kirby-safe-secure-pelosi-trip-taiwan-00048982

  38. Vale Judith Durham. The Seekers’ music wasn’t my cup but she did have a nice
    voice. And what I’d like to know is why Durham was awarded with an OAM, yet the three others received the higher AO.

    [‘Judith Durham, lead singer of The Seekers and one of Australia’s most prolific performers, has died aged 79 after a long battle with illness.

    Durham, OAM, died in a Melbourne hospital on Friday evening, Universal Music confirmed in a statement.

    The following statement was made on Saturday evening:

    It is with overwhelming sadness that Musicoast Pty. Ltd. and Universal Music Australia announce the death of international music legend Judith Durham…

    After a brief stay in the Alfred Hospital, Judith was admitted to Palliative Care on Friday 5 August, where she passed away peacefully that evening. Her death was a result of complications from a long-standing chronic lung disease.

    In making the announcement, Judith’s biographer and The Seekers management team member Graham Simpson said: “This is a sad day for Judith’s family, her fellow Seekers, the staff of Musicoast, the music industry and fans worldwide, and all of us who have been part of Judith’s life for so long.”

    Judith’s beloved sister Beverley Sheehan spoke of the closeness they shared throughout life, including their love of music. “Judith’s joy for life, her constant optimism, creativity and generosity of spirit were always an inspiration to me.”

    On behalf of Keith Potger AO and Bruce Woodley AO, Athol Guy AO said, “Our lives are changed forever losing our treasured lifelong friend and shining star. Her struggle was intense and heroic – never complaining of her destiny and fully accepting its conclusion. Her magnificent musical legacy Keith, Bruce and I are so blessed to share.”]

    https://www.smh.com.au/culture/music/judith-durham-lead-singer-of-the-seekers-dies-aged-79-20220806-p5b7t1.html

    _____________________________________________

    Hang in there Cat. And I see that Andrew’s badgering of Player One has, according to dear moderator, no factual basis yet no apology has been forthcoming. I’d take Confessions’ advice if I were you; no one will deem you
    lesser if you were to ignore their acidic tongues.

  39. So now even bidon has critercized peloseys viset she musbe lining up for a run however at 79 and considersd a progresive shes now triying to be a foreign affairs exbert

  41. Still do not understand whiy bno one viseted ucrane when rusia made it clear ssince 2014 that they would eventualy invade if ucrane did not surrender some offf its teriotory yet the us tries to prevoke china in tiwon protending to be the inosent party china will replafce us as the dominant power us are not concerned abbout tiwon just loosing there role as worlds police men when ucrane called foor years for nato help to stop putin yet us was more cowncerned staying in afghanistan whoes population did not want them then defending a country that the west egnored to apease rusia

  44. My local footy team is coming home with a wet sail. Travelled to Kersbrook today and got beaten 37-22 to 0-0! That’s 244 points to nil.
    I can’t see them surviving as a club. Our cricket club is likely to fold too.

  45. Hang in there Cat. And I see that Andrew’s badgering of Player One has, according to dear moderator, no factual basis yet no apology has been forthcoming. I’d take Confessions’ advice if I were you; no one will deem you
    lesser if you were to ignore their acidic tongues.

    Thanks, Mavis.

    It just becomes really hard to ignore when they never stop. But I’ll try.

  46. yes thats right but trump and bideo are arround the same age think its unlikely after clinten us will risk a trip but maybi if not presidentsy pilocey is aiming to replace blinken as secretary off state dont think shes justviseting tiwon for nothing dont like chinas human rights abuse but what if gthey viseted a country we were having tention would we not react us does no diplomatick presents in tiwon the defence establishment must want an other war to triy and prove the last 70 years rong

  48. okay if its anoying poasters but evry one thought trump was a joke maybi pilosey will retire and this is her big statement i am right abbout us military history well they won iraq lost vietnam afghianistan and draw in corian war but there our best defence

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